Afghan War Blog

Sunday, February 4, 2018

District Control in Afghanistan

One way of measuring success or failure in Afghanistan is to label how many of the 399 districts are 'controlled' or 'contested' by the Taliban. There are four or five organizations that periodically release the stats on this topic. (Note: there are varying figures for the number of districts; 399 seems to be the most consistent).

The most important organization to follow is Resolute Support HQs based in Kabul. RS figures tend to be on the optimistic side; usually its figures are stated in the bi-annual DoD 1225 report or in SIGAR's Quarterly Report to Congress. The latest SIGAR report (Jan 30, 2018) did not have these figures because RS HQs (or DoD) classified (for the 1st time) the information. Under pressure from the media RS HQs quickly released new figures. Last November 2018 the Afghan government controlled 64% of the population and now (Jan 2018) it controls 60% of the population.

The Long War Journal also tracks district control in Afghanistan. It's figures are more reliable than Resolute Support's figures as it takes a more realistic view of what 'district control' is. The Long War Journal blog periodically releases an updated map on what districts are controlled or contested.

The Afghan government also will provide stats on district control on a periodic basis. However, take it with a grain of salt. It is a very optimistic and unrealistic portrayal for sure. Currently, the Ministry of Defense (MoD) says that only 11 districts are under Taliban control. Hmmm. There are about 13 districts in Helmand province alone; of which probably 11 districts are under the control of the Taliban. What about the other 33 provinces?

BBC News has published an article with a small video segment on how much area the Taliban control - with the alarming headline of "Taliban threaten 70% of Afghanistan, BBC finds" (January 30, 2018).

Want to learn more about district control in Afghanistan?

SIGAR Quarterly Report to Congress (Jan 2018)

The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has posted its Quarterly Report to Congress for January 2018. This 293-page report provides an overview of reconstruction activities in Afghanistan with updates on:

Overview and Status of Funds
Security
Governance
Economic and Social Development
Counternarcotics

www.sigar.mil/quarterlyreports/index.aspx

Afghan Air Force (AAF) Update

AAF's A-29s Using Guided Bombs - Almost. The A-29 Super Tucano began its first combat operations in the Afghan conflict in April 2016. The highly maneuverable aircraft is capable of flying a low altitudes and is an excellent close air support platform for the Afghan National Army (ANA). The A-29 pilots are now learning how to drop laser-guided bombs. Recently two A-29s participated in a training event to employ these very accurate munitions utilizing the on-board Forward Looking Infrared System. The A-29s were piloted by TAAC Air mentors while the back-seater (AAF member) managed the weapons system. Read more in "In another first, Afghan pilots are now dropping laser-guided bombs", Air Force Times, January 28, 2018.

UH-60s Replacing Mi-17s - A Bad Political and Operational Decision. Alexandra Gutowski, a senior military affairs analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, writes how "Blackhawks Threaten to Undermine Afghan Air Force Development", Real Clear Defense, January 29, 2018. Naturally, this is a hot issue. There are those who believe the UH-60 is a great fit for the AAF. Time will tell. Read more news about the UH-60 Black Hawk and AAF.

Commentary on Afghanistan

Peace Talks

Peace Talks? No Progress. Thomas Ruttig and Obaid Ali of the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) provides an update on the lack of progress in government / Taliban peace talks. Read "Words, No Deeds: 2017, another lost year for peace (talks) in Afghanistan", January 24, 2018.

Pakistan

Pakistan - At the Heart of the Problem. Robert Cassidy, PhD and retired U.S. Army colonel, provides insight as to why Pakistan lies at the very center of implementing a 'new Afghanistan strategy' in "Pakistan: Graveyard of Strategy", Modern War Institute at West Point, January 31, 2018.

Pakistan - A Thorn in the Side of the U.S. Mark Mazzetti tells us how Afghanistan's neighbor cultivated American dependency while subverting American policy in "The Devastating Paradox of Pakistan", The Atlantic, March 2018.

Costs Pakistan Will Endure. Michael Kugelman, Asia Program Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia at the Wilson Center, comments on the costs that Pakistan will endure for supporting the Afghan Taliban. "Winter is coming for Pakistan's military as US aid freeze sets in", East Asia Forum, January 31, 2018.

Regional Aspects of Afghan Conflict

Geopolitical Rivalries in the Afghan Conflict. There are many different perspectives of the roots of the Afghan conflict. The Centre for Research on Globalization provides its viewpoint on the 'real reasons' the U.S. stays engaged in Afghanistan. For a little bit of reality mixed in with a good dose of fiction read "Geopolitical Rivalries and Afghanistan's Open-Ended War. China Extends Its Influence to the Detriment of America", by Fraidoon Amel, January 29, 2018.

Regional Neighbors Important to Resolving Afghan War. Washington's attempt to find a resolution to the Afghan conflict militarily while continuously antagonizing Iran and Pakistan is bound to end badly. Read "Afghanistan Cannot Be Resolved in Isolation from Its Neighborhood", by Mohammed Ayob, National Interest, January 30, 2018.

Regional Connectivity Important to Peace. M. Ashraf Haidari writes about how to obtain peace in Afghanistan. Factors include Pakistan and India resolving their differences, the ceasing of support of the Taliban by Afghanistan's neighboring countries, and enhancing the economic connectivity of the region. "Key to Peace in Afghanistan", The Daily Pioneer, February 1, 2018.

Commentary on the Afghan War

Gauging Success or Failure. Dr. Seth Jones, associated with the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) provides an update on the current situation in Afghanistan and looks at the various data points and metrics that could be used to determine who is winning and who is losing in Afghanistan. The State of the Afghan War, CSIS, January 31, 2018.

Book Review of "Unwinnable". Ahmed Rashid reviews Unwinnable - how the UK military conducted its war in Afghanistan. Read "Theo Farrell's Unwinnable shows Britain never had a chance in Afghanistan", Prospect Magazine, January 24, 2018.

End U.S. Intervention in Afghanistan. Bonnie Kristian, a fellow at Defense Priorities, suggests the time has come to end the U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. "US Afghan intervention is a failure of concept, not execution", Washington Examiner, February 2, 2018.

Still in Afghanistan? Julia MacFarlane, an ABC news reporter, examines the current situation in Afghanistan and asks "Why is the US still in Afghanistan", ABC News, February 2, 2018.

Miscellaneous

Abuse of Afghan Boys. A recent report by a U.S. government agency on the practice of using boys for sex (bacha bazi) by personnel of the Afghan security forces has sparked outrage. Several Afghan government officials have come out strongly against the practice. One of them is the Ambassador to the United States - Hamdullah Mohib. Read his article in "Afghan ambassador: Abuse of boys is illegal", USA Today, January 29, 2018.

Defiance in the Face of Terror. The capital of Kabul has suffered through several terrorist attacks . . . but it will rebound and continue on in its quest to become a vibrant city. Read one person's viewpoint on the recent terror attacks in "If ISIS and the Taliban think they can break the spirit of Afghans, they are fools", by Rabia Nasimi, Newsweek.co.uk, January 20, 2018.

Afghanistan Losing International Support? Rakesh Sood, a fellow at the Observer Research Foundation and long-time Indian diplomat, provides his perspective on the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan amid the probability that international support will diminish. Read "Afghanistan, On A Slow Fuse", ORF, January 25, 2018.

COIN - Can it Work? Afghanistan has suffered through a long run of insurgency. So the NATO, U.S., and Afghan military personnel that are fighting the insurgents could be called "counterinsurgents". But do they know they are "counterinsurgents" and do they know how to conduct counterinsurgency? If an insurgency runs for 16 years can we conclude that counterinsurgency is a failed concept? Or do we conclude that we haven't executed counterinsurgency properly? Or is it possible that counterinsurgency requires a host of factors to all be present for it to be successful? Daniel Shell explores these questions in this short piece entitled "Is COIN Inherently Fragile? And Even Worse, Is Insurgency Anti-Fragile?", Task & Purpose, January 29, 2018.

Afghan Governance and Politics

Governor Atta Mohammad Noor

Governor Atta Noor Saga. The months-long stand-off continues in northern Afghanistan with the former governor issuing threats and a 'final warning'. Read "Noor's Signature Still Credible in Balkh", Tolo News, January 29, 2018.

Political Showdown. Scott DesMarais and Caitlin Forrest examine the power play between President Ghani and Governor (ex?) Atta Noor in Afghanistan Political Showdown Between Ashraf Ghani and Mohammad Atta Noor, Institute for the Study of War, February 1, 2018.

Corruption . . . "The Never Ending Afghan Story". Read a recent story that illustrates how money for development projects simply disappears in Afghanistan. An example of corruption at the sub-governance level. Now multiply it by 1,000 instances happening every year. "Afghanistan: The Town That Never Was", Institute for War & Peace Reporting, January 2018.

U.S. Dep Sec DoS Visits Afghanistan. Deputy Secretary John J. Sullivan Visits Afghanistan, U.S. Embassy in Afghanistan, January 30, 2018. Held meetings with President Ghani, CEO Abdullah, Foreign Minister Rabbani, and other government leaders. Read his remarks made on his visit while in Kabul (U.S. Dept of State, Jan 30, 2018).

The Governance Problems. While Pakistan is a major headache for Afghanistan with its support of the Afghan Taliban - the Afghans themselves are now helping out. Afghanistan has a huge governance problem. Ahmad Mohibbi explains in "Beyond Pakistan, Afghanistan's Most Serious Problem is Governance", The Diplomat, February 2, 2018.

Vice President Dostum Under Fire. Afghanistan's First Vice President - General Abdul Rashid Dostum - will have his record of alleged criminal activity reviewed by the International Criminal Court. Dostum is currently living in Turkey (under some form of political exile). (Khama Press, Feb 3, 2018).

Ghani Gets Tough with Pakistan. Afghanistan's president recently called out Pakistan for its support of the Taliban. Read "Afghan President Calls Pakistan 'Center of the Taliban'", Gandhara, February 2, 2018.

Parliamentary Elections in 2018. Will Afghanistan be Ready? Afghanistan's method of registering voters to participate in elections is broken. In July 2018 the nation will conduct parliamentary elections; but the new voter registration process is not yet in place. An article by Staffan Darnolf explains the difficulties associated with voter registration and conducting a fair election in Afghanistan in "Afghan Elections: Will the Voter Registry Be Ready for 2018?", United States Institute for Peace (USIP), January 26, 2018.

Afghan Security News

News about Afghan SOF

"Clear, Hold, and Build?" The Afghan army - using its Commandos - has the "Clear" part of counterinsurgency down pretty good. It is the "Hold" and "Build" part that historically the ANDSF do not do well. Read an example of this weak area in "Northern offensives conducted by Afghan Army achieve impermanent gains", FDD's Long War Journal, January 31, 2018.

Afghan Commandos. Marty Skovlund Jr, a writer for Task & Purpose, recently visited Camp Commando (just outside of Kabul) where the Afghan Commandos are trained. He provides us with an excellent article describing the Commandos training, mission, and motivation. Read "With The Taliban On The Offensive, The Future Of Afghanistan May Depend On This Homegrown Commando Force", January 29, 2018.

New Afghan SOF Unit - Cobra Strike Kandak. In the effort to increase the size of Afghan Special Security Forces (ASSF) the Afghan National Army Special Operations Command (ANASOC) has established a new school and unit. Learn more about the Cobra Strike Maneuver Course and the Cobra Strike Kandaks in "Afghan Special Operations build momentum with Cobra Strike Maneuver Course", DVIDS, February, 3, 2018.

Security Events and Incidents

"A Bloody Start to 2018". Why has there been an uptick in violence in Afghanistan - especially in Kabul? Some observers believe that it is the Taliban's response to President Trumps new strategy in South Asia, Trump's statements and actions against Pakistan, and the winter offensive conducted by the ANDSF (along with U.S. bombing). Read "Taliban attacks cast doubt on US' Afghan Strategy", Deutsche Welle, January 29, 2018.

Military University Attacked. On Sunday, January 28th two suicide bombers detonated their explosives at the gate of the Marshal Fahim Military University in Kabul. Two other attackers were killed in the fight and one attacker was captured by the ANDSF. The attack was the fourth major assault in a surge of violence in just over a week . . . and the fighting season has yet to begin. both the Taliban and the Islamic State - Khorsan Province appear to be increasing their attacks in Kabul. "Eleven Afghan soldiers killed in latest attack in Kabul", Reuters, January 28, 2018.

More on Kabul Bombing. The recent bombing on Saturday, January 27th by the Taliban using an ambulance has resulted in 103 deaths and 235 wounded. It appears the emergency vehicle was waved through one checkpoint but then was stopped at a second checkpoint - when it detonated.

Some Good News? Evidently all is not all 'doom and gloom' in Afghanistan. Not if you read one of Resolute Support's recent press releases - "Afghan forces apply pressure to insurgents with renewed resolve", RS HQ, February 1, 2018. While RS HQs acknowledges that there have been some significant attacks in Kabul; it provides examples of how the ANDSF (especially SOF) are making headway. And there is this statement by Gen Nicholson (RS Cdr):

Our mission is boosting troop numbers, which really means that our Train, Advise and Assist Mission will go even deeper inside the schooling and education system, and with the forces on the battlefield.

Analysis and Commentary on Security Situation in Afghanistan

Trends in Afghan Security. The folks at the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) have provided us with a detailed analysis of how security is trending in Afghanistan over the past several years. The news is not good. The writer, Thomas Ruttig - a man with extensive time in Afghanistan, looks at five major indicators of security in 2017 and compares it to data from earlier years. He finds that the Afghan War has become more violent and widespread in 2017. Read his very detailed analysis in "More Violent, More Widespread: Trends in Afghan Security in 2017", AAN, January 29, 2018.

Options for Success Limited. According to Bennett Seftel, director of analysis at The Cipher Brief, options for the Afghan conflict are not good. See "Afghanistan Quagmire Leaves U.S. With No Good Options", February 1, 2018.

Battle for Kabul and Beyond? The recent spate of terrorist attacks in Kabul highlight what may be a coming bloody year in Afghanistan. Read an analysis of the security situation in Afghanistan by Nafisa Hoodbhoy in "Analysts: Battle for Kabul Has Begun", Voice of America, January 28, 2018.

Info Withheld in SIGAR Report. The Pentagon and Resolute Support HQs has removed information previously published in the unclassified Quarterly Report to Congress. The January 2018 has little information about the Taliban's ability to 'control or contest' districts in Afghanistan. Previous reports always contained this info. Read "Watchdog: Pentagon blocks information on insurgent dominance in Afghanistan", Stars and Stripes, January 30, 2018.

Taliban Gaining Strength? Recent DoD and SIGAR reports along with analysis from outside media outlets and think tanks indicate that the Taliban certainly are not using . . . and depending on the metrics used . . . could possibly be tilting the 'stalemate' to the insurgency's favor. Read "The Taliban is gaining strength and territory in Afghanistan", NBC News, January 30, 2018.

Afghan Security Institutions (ASI) and ANDSF

Retiring the 'Old Generals'. There are a lot of Afghan generals on the payroll; many of whom don't have a real job. Even worse is that some of those that do show up for work are corrupt and inept. One of the key elements of professionalizing the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces that Resolute Support has encouraged the Afghans to adopt is changing out the senior leadership. But there are those who oppose this approach (of course). (Tolo News, Jan 29, 2018).

Spies Within ANDSF? Are there informers who report to insurgents currently working within the Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defense? MININT Wais Ahmad Barmak believes that is the case. Read "Insurgents Have Spies Among Security Forces, Barmak Says", Tolo News, January 28, 2018.

Peace Talks?

Talking to the Taliban? Not so Much. One of the aims of the U.S. government is to use all means available (military, diplomacy, etc.) to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table for a political settlement. On Monday, January 29th this was all put aside by President Trump when he said "I don't see any talking taking place . . ." during a televised meeting at the White House. The remarks were 'off the cuff' and probably reflected his thoughts after several recent bombings by insurgents in Kabul that killed a lot of innocent people.

Miscellaneous

Drone Contract. AAI Corporation has been awarded a multi-million dollar contract to provide UAV support to U.S. forces in Afghanistan. Read "AAI Corp. to provide intelligence services in Afghanistan", UPI.com, January 29, 2018.

Facts and Figures. Statistics can be shaped into many different forms to help convey a message or sway the conversation. The Afghan conflict is certainly a war with many different points of view - many that use data points to present their respective perspectives. Scott Peterson writes on this in "Afghanistan by the numbers: inside the fight over facts", February 2, 2018.

Movies and Videos about Afghanistan

Operation Afghanistan: The Role of JBER's Spartan Brigade, KTUU 2, February 1, 2018. A 4-minute long video that explains the role of Train, Advise, Assist Command - East (TAAC East) at Tactical Base Gamberi in Laghman province, Afghanistan.
www.ktuu.com/content/news/Operation-Afghanistan-The-Role-of-JBERs-Spartan-Brigade-472293343.html

The Special Mission Wing: Afghanistan's Special Aviation Unit, Resolute Support, YouTube.com, January 31, 2018. Listen to some tough words from a member of the Afghan SMW in this 30-sec video.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ktERoVyDMM

The Afghan Commandos Trying to Beat Back The Taliban, HBO, posted on Vice News YouTube.com, January 29, 2018. (5 mins).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5X8C9RSU9w

Croatian Military Medical Advisor, Resolute Support, YouTube.com, January 28, 2018. This one-minute video features a doctor assigned to Train, Advise, and Assist Command - North who advises at the 100-bed Regional Military Hospital at Camp Shaheen, Mazar-e-Sharif.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8g5YiHVXjo4

View a list of videos about Afghanistan.

Afghan News Snippets

ICRC 'Facts and Figures Report - 2017'. The International Committee of the Red Cross has released a four-page report of its activities in Afghanistan for the past year.

Afghanistan in Presidential Speeches Before Congress. Krishnadev Calamur, a foreign policy writer, examines how presidential speeches before Congress (SOTU) have described the situation in Afghanistan. "16 Years of Presidents Talking About the War in Afghanistan", The Atlantic, January 30, 2018.

OCHA Weekly Report 22-29 Jan 2018. The Weekly Humanitarian Field Report by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs for Afghanistan is now online.

Afghan Fatemiyoun Division - Fighting in Syria. Read about the Shia foreign fighters fighting on behalf of Iran in Syria. Since August 2013 The Afghan Fatemiyoun Division has suffered the second-largest number of losses in Syria among Tehran's Shia foreign legions. Tehran's Shia Foreign Legions, by Ali Alfoneh, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 30, 2018.

Afghan Spy Chief Visits Pakistan. Oh . . . to be a fly on the wall. The Afghan intelligence chief and Interior Minister paid a visit to Islamabad to discuss 'security concerns'. (Radio Free Europe, Jan 31, 2018).

Chinese Military Base in Afghanistan? There have been several new reports over the past few months about the Chinese establishing a military base in the remote province of Badakhshan. (Military.com, Feb 3, 2018).

Uncertainty of Afghan Refugees. Jelena Bjelica and Ali Mohammad Sabawoon of the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) write about Afghans in Pakistan in "Still Caught in Regional Tensions? The uncertain destiny of Afghan refugees in Pakistan", AAN, January 31, 2018.

UNAMA Works with Afghan Media. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan helps Afghan media organizations to build support for Afghan-led peace and reconciliation. (UNAMA, Feb 1, 2018).

ICRC - Leaving 2017 and Looking at 2018. The International Committee of the Red Cross examines 2017 and looks forward to 2018. Read Afghanistan: A difficult year in 2017, a new footprint on 2018, February 1, 2018.

Book Review - Directorate S. Steve Coll has another book out about Pakistan (Afghanistan) about the CIA and it's work in South Asia. (Evening Standard, Feb 1, 2018).

"Aid Worker Security Database". The AWSD records major incidents of violence against aid workers from 1997 to present. https://aidworkersecurity.org/

Oxfam Report. A new report provides information on the situation awaiting Afghan returnees within Afghanistan. Returning to Fragility: Exploring the link between conflict and returnees in Afghanistan, January 31, 2018.

OCHA Humanitarian Bulletin. The December 2017 Humanitarian Bulletin is now available.

Stay Up to Date on the Afghan War

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Sunday, January 28, 2018

Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter - Jan 28, 2018

Welcome to the Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter. Articles are posted online on the blog and sent out via email newsletter on Sunday morning. We welcome comments, ideas for stories, contributions, and guest writers! Visit our website at www.afghanwarnews.info, follow us on Twitter at @AfghanWarBlog, and on LinkedIn at www.linkedin.com/in/afghan-war-news.

Attack on Intercontinental Hotel

On Saturday, January 20, 2018 insurgents attacked the Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul, Afghanistan. The attack, staged by 3-6 insurgents, seemed to target foreigners. At least four Afghans and 12 foreigners were killed. Many of the dead included members of Kam Air flight crews. Some media reports indicated that up to 40 people died in the attack. The elite SOF unit of the Ministry of Interior (MoI) - the Crisis Response Unit (CRU 222) - responded to the attack. The hotel is a state-owned enterprise and just recently contracted with a new security firm to provide security for the establishment. Some news reports indicate that four Americans were killed during the attack. One American was identified as Glenn Selig - a former spokesman for the Trump campaign.

Train, Advise, Assist Mission in Afghanistan

Italian advisors 'fly to advise' (RS HQs, 20180122)

Italian Advisors Fly to Advise. Advisors from Train, Advise, and Assist Command - West recently flew to Kushki Kuhna district, Herat province to conduct periodic training with their Afghan partners. Read more in "Italian advisors provide ANA with periodic training at home", Resolute Support, January 22, 2018.

TAAC-North's 'Train the Trainers' Course. The advisors at Train, Advise, and Assist Command - North located at Mazar-e-Sharif have developed a 4-week long course for experienced members of the ANA who will take their knowledge back to their units. Read "Training the trainers in northern Afghanistan", Resolute Support, January 27, 2018.

JFTC Advisor Training. NATO officers and NCOs are currently training to be advisors in a two-week train-up held at the Joint Forces Training Centre (JFTC) in Bydgoszcz, Poland. Over two hundred students are in attendance. They will serve as advisors while assigned to Resolute Support Mission in Kabul and the Train, Advise, and Assist Command - North in Mazar-e-Sharif. Read more in "JFTC Trains for Resolute Support Mission", JFTC, January 2018.

Mi-17 Training at Rucker Ends. The training of Afghans to fly and maintain the Mi-17 helicopter is coming to a close at Fort Rucker, Alabama. (DVIDS, January 17, 2018).

RS FAST Program. The Functional Area Support Team (FAST) program by RS HQs is helping to recruit young, educated Afghans for civilian roles performing essential functions within the ANDSF and security ministries. Read "Putting Young Afghans on a FAST Track", RS, January 12, 2018.

TAA in Many Shapes. Read an article about members of the 3rd Infantry Division - Sustainment Brigade who advise the ANDSF while stationed at HKIA. "Train, Advise, Assist, Sustain: 3ID RSSB Mission in Kabul", DVIDS, January 17, 2018.

Aussie Advising the KGC. An Australian Army Officer is busy mentoring Afghans at the Kabul General Garrison Command (KGC). Read his story in a dispatch by the Australian DoD, January 9, 2018.

Afghan CDO QC. The 14-week long Afghan Commando Qualification Course is graduating hundreds of newly-minted Commandos each class. The latest class saw 650 ANA Soldiers complete training. Hopefully the quality of the Commandos is still a factor. Read "Commando growth in full swing", DVIDS, January 24, 2018.

News on the 1st SFAB

More Advisors Heading to Afghanistan.The Washington Post reports that up to 1,000 more advisors are heading to Afghanistan this spring. (WaPo, Jan 21, 2018).

1st SFAB - "Fully Capable". On February 8, 2018 the 1st Security Force Assistance Brigade will be recognized as fully capable at a ceremony at Fort Benning, Georgia. The 1st SFAB is scheduled to deploy to Afghanistan this spring.

JRTC Training Complete. The advisory brigade has completed its pre-deployment training. "The 1st of the 1st: 1st SFBA wraps up rotation at JRTC prior to deployment", DVIDS, January 25, 2018.

1st SFAB at JRTC. The Ops Group at Joint Readiness Training Center at Fort Polk, Louisiana, has developed a unique training program for the 1st SFAB. (DVIDS, Jan 17, 2018).

1st SFAB to be Issued XM18 Handgun. Soldiers from the 1st SFAB got familiar with the XM17 handgun at JRTC in preparation for their Afghan deployment. "Soldiers Test New Modular Handgun System at Fort Polk", DoD, January 23, 2018.

Will the SFAB Work? Maybe. Wesley Morgan, a military writer, provides news on the 1st SFAB in "The Army's latest weapon to turn around the war in Afghanistan", Politic, January 26, 2018.

Insufficient Training for 1st SFAB? Thomas Gibbons-Neff has penned an article that contains some troubling revelations . . . in "Training Quick and Staffing Unfinished, Army Units Brace for Surging Taliban", The New York Times, January 26, 2018.

Long War Journal on the SFAB. Read "Newly created 'teaching' brigade prepares to deploy to Afghanistan", FDD, January 26, 2018.

Military Advisor Training Academy - MATA. The U.S. Army has established a new school for training advisors who will conduct security force assistance missions. Read about the new MATA.
www.sof.news/sfa/mata-military-advisor-training-academy

Read more about the 1st Security Force Assistance Brigade - SFAB.

Read recent news reports about the 1st Security Force Assistance Brigade - SFAB.

Read about the Army's newly established Military Advisor Training Academy (MATA).

RS HQs on Afghanistan in 2018

NATO's Resolute Support Headquarters wants you to know that it has "a path to a win" in Afghanistan. The increase of the force to around 15,000 troops from 39 partner and allied nations will contribute to a plan "to fracture the Taliban, and leave them with no option but a negotiated end to the conflict."

Well . . . how can this small force prevail, where an international force some ten times the size did not defeat the insurgency in 2010? RS HQs offers answers to this question in a recently released 'backgrounder'. Some of the answers include:

"Better Afghan Forces"
"Undefeated Special Forces"
"Independent Air Force"
"Generational Change in Leadership"
"Training Down to Kandaks"
"New Authorities to Hunt Down the Taliban"
"Reconciliation"
"Economic Growth"

Read "The path to a win. What's different in 2018", Resolute Support, January 15, 2018

Task Force Southwest First Rotation Complete

Task Force Southwest has seen the first rotation of Marines complete their tour. The nine-month deployment saw the Marines deploy advisors and trainers to assist the Afghan National Army (ANA) 215th Corps and 505th Zone National Police in Helmand province. The Marines took over from Task Force Forge last spring - an Army organization that was advising the ANA and ANP. The advisory element was made up of Marines from III Marine Expeditionary Force and led by Brig. General Roger Turner. The new advisory team is led by Brig. General Benjamin Watson. The transfer of authority occurred on January 15, 2018.

The second rotation of Marines will likely have looser rules of engagement and greater authorities. Resolute Support HQs has repeatedly indicated that advisors will be found at the lower tactical levels - going down to kandak (battalion) level to conduct the train, advise, and assist mission. The Marines will likely advise some units on a persistent basis while other Afghan units will see advisors on an episodic basis. Read more in "Combat Is No Longer Off the Table for Marines in Afghanistan", Task and Purpose, January 15, 2018.

Commentary on Afghanistan

Peace Talks? No Progress. Thomas Ruttig and Obaid Ali of the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) provide an update on the lack of progress in government / Taliban peace talks. Read "Words, No Deeds: 2017, another lost year for peace (talks) in Afghanistan", January 24, 2018.

Peace Talks Likely to Fail. Farooq Yousaf, a writer associated with the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), tells us why peace talks with the Taliban are likely to fail in Complications Surrounding Negotiations With The Taliban / Haqqani Network, Afghan Studies Center, January 26, 2018.

Taliban Far from Being on the Ropes. The Taliban currently controls or contests about 40 to 50& of Afghanistan's nearly 400 districts - the highest amount of territory controlled since the start of the 2001 war. Fatality rates for Afghan security forces are soaring while civilian casualties have reached record highs. Meanwhile the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (IS-KP) located in eastern Afghanistan is still strong despite constant pressure from U.S. drones, U.S. SOF, and Afghan SOF. Michael Kugelman, the deputy director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. provides his perspective in "The Taliban and ISIS are still powerful forces in Afghanistan", The Hill, January 26, 2018.

An Indian Perspective. The Narendra Modi government has been in touch with the Trump administration on Afghanistan. See "Mess in Afghanistan: Taliban's hold rising", The Asian, January 23, 2018.

Improving Connectivity in South and Central Asia. Improving regional connectivity across the 'Heart of Asia' region will help all nations. Coupled with an easing of tensions with Pakistan (and Pakistan doing the right thing) . . . all nations could benefit. M. Ashraf Haidari provides his perspective in "A Peaceful Afghanistan Key to Regional Connectivity in South and Central Asia", The Diplomat, January 26, 2018.

Why are we in Afghanistan? Steve Coll, book author and observer of the Afghan conflict, offers his perspective on the long-running Afghan war in "We Can't Win in Afghanistan Because We Don't Know Why We're There", The New York Times, January 26, 2018.

A Distracted and Factional Taliban? One writer, Matthew Dupee, thinks that the Taliban are ". . . distracted by sustained internal divisions and threats from rival factions . . ." Read his long report - "Afghanistan's Intra-Insurgency Violence" - posted in the January 2018 issue of Sentinel published by the Center for Combating Terrorism at West Point.

"Afghanistan, Continued". Thomas Neely, a U.S. Army veteran, writes about the continuing war in Afghanistan. He worries that we haven't learned from the history of past conflicts. Posted in Small Wars Journal, January 6, 2018.

Engaging China and Pakistan. Ehsan M. Ahari, an adjunct research professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, writes that the U.S. can only solve the Afghan conflict if it engages China and Pakistan. "US Strategy in Afghanistan Requires Diplomacy and Military Power - Analysis", Eurasia Review, January 24, 2018.

Glossary for Afghan War & Resolute Support

In every military there is a huge amount of terms, acronyms, phrases, and words that are unrecognizable to the non-military members of society. To a newly deployed member of the military assigned to Afghanistan - the slang, abbreviations, and definitions used in theater can be perplexing as well. It takes a while to learn the lingo. For instance many newcomers confuse the terms Afghan and Afghani. To help out Afghan War News has compiled an online glossary.

www.afghanwarnews.info/glossary/afghanglossary.htm

Bibliography for SFA in Afghanistan

The Annotated Bibliography for Resolute Support has been updated and posted. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission ended on 31 December 2014 and the NATO Resolute Support Mission (RSM) began on 1 January 2015. The Resolute Support Mission is primarily Security Force Assistance (SFA) along functional areas at the ministry, institutional, and ANA corps level. Some advisory teams are working at the brigade and kandak level.

The bibliography will be very helpful for advisors at all levels in Afghanistan as well as staff members of the RS mission. It has links to hundreds of documents, papers, publications, and websites about advising, the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces, and Afghanistan. The bibliography is updated periodically and the date of revision is posted on the first page. The publication is an Adobe Acrobat PDF, is more than 200 pages long, and is less than 3 MBs big. You can read online or download at the link below. Updated on 27 Jan 2018.

www.afghanwarnews.info/pubs/RSM-Bibliography.htm

Afghan War News Site Map - Great Resource

The Afghan War News Site Map lists all the web pages on the website - almost 300 pages. The pages are hyperlinked and are grouped by category and topic to help you find the information you need. The Site Map is an excellent resource for the researcher or Afghan hand that provides access to a variety of information. Major topics include the ANSF, maps, security, governance, development, IO, SFA, SFAB, history, and more.

www.afghanwarnews.info/sitemap.htm

Book Review: "Wakhan Qadrangle"

Tobias Marschall reviews a new book entitled "Wakhan Quadrangle: Exploration and Espionage During and After the Great Game". The book, wrote by geographer Hermann Kreutzmann, explores one of the most remote areas of the world. The valley in the Parmir Mountains of Central Asia is situated on the peripheries of Afghanistan, China, Tsarist Russia, and Great Britain. While many 'western explorers' are known (through published works) to have transited and studied this area of the world - those 'explorers' local to the area are less well-known. This book focuses on those native explorers whose contributions were neglected in public discourse and in scholarly discussions. Read the review in "Book Review: Exploration, Espionage, and The Great Game", Gandhara Blog, January 22, 2018.

Afghan Governance and Politics

Governor Atta Mohammad Noor

Governor Noor Hangs On. The governor of Balhk province has been dismissed by President Ghani but he refuses to leave office. The U.S. is hoping that conflict is avoided. The Germans, heading up Train, Advise, and Assist Command - North (TAAC North), are surely keeping tabs on the political situation for RS HQs. Governance in Afghanistan has a long way to go . . . Read more in "President, governor spat poses new challenge in Afghanistan", Deutsche Welle, January 23, 2018.

Farah Governor Quits. The governor of the western Afghan province of Farah has resigned citing worsening security in the region that he blamed on political interference and corruption. He took aim at the security forces as a source of much of the provinces problems. (RFE, 26 Jan 2018).

Civil Dimension of the Afghan Conflict. Anthony H. Cordesman, a national security expert at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CIS), writes about the other side of the Afghan war (other than military) - politics, governance, economics, corruption, and drug trade. Read "The Civil Half of the Afghan War", December 6, 2017.

Afghan Constitution. The Center for Strategic and Regional Studies (CSRS) has published an article about how the Afghan government has consistently violated the Afghan constitution. The CSRS suggests that there is a serious need to raise public awareness regarding the laws and promote law-monitoring and implementing organs. Read "A Glimpse to the Implementation and Violation of the Afghan Constitution", CSRS, January 13, 2018.

Afghan Security News

The AAF and Helicopters. An Afghan and U.S. aviator have combined forces to write an article in an attempt to convince us that the replacement of the Russian-made Mi-17 with the U.S.-made UH-60 Black Hawk is a good idea. Hmmm. Read "A New Platform and New Plan for the Afghan Air Force", Small Wars Journal, January 17, 2018.

How Badly is the War Going? Over the past year (2017) about 10,000 Afghan security force personnel have been killed with more than 16,000 wounded. An average of 10 civilians are killed every day. (UN data for 2017).

Mi-17 Replacement - "True Costs". James Durso enlightens us on the 'true costs' of replacing the Mi-17 with the UH-60 in "Overpriced Afghanistan helicopter upgrades amount to a subsidy for contractors", The Hill, January 21, 2018.

U.S. Aircraft Increased in Afghanistan. Central Command has re-positioned aircraft to Afghanistan to beef up the number of strike aircraft. Read a press release from Resolute Support, January 24, 2018. It appears that the additional aircraft are A-10 Warthogs and MQ-9 Reaper drones.

ATF 444. The Afghan Territorial Force (ATF 444) rescued eight Afghan government and military prisoners from a Taliban compound in Helmand province on January 23rd. The ATF 444 is one of three elite National Mission Units of the Ministry of Interior (MoI).

SIGAR Report on Child Sexual Assault in Afghanistan. A classified report published in June 2017 by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has been cleared for public viewing and has been available as of January 18, 2018. A damaging report on how the U.S. military ignored incidents of sexual exploitation of young boys by members of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). Read Child Sexual Assault in Afghanistan, SIGAR, January 18, 2018.

Digging Deeper into Afghanistan. The Soufan Center has provided a 'security update' on the situation in Afghanistan in "TSC INTELBRIEF: The U.S. Digs Deeper in Afghanistan", January 24, 2018.

UN Security Council Statements. The United Nations Security Council expressed its continued support to the UN Secretary-General's call to action to avert threats in Afghanistan. (United Nations, 19 January 2018).
www.un.org/press/en/2018/sc13170.doc.htm

Prisoners Freed in Night Raid. Afghan and U.S. special operations units freed a number of prisoners held by the Taliban in Helmand province on Saturday, January 20, 2018.

Bomb Attack Against Hospital. There was a massive bomb explosion in the vicinity of Kabul's Jamhoriat hospital on Sunday, January 27th. A number of people were killed and wounded. Early estimates have almost 100 deaths and many more injured. The Taliban have claimed responsibility. An ambulance loaded with explosives caused the many deaths.

Taliban and Islamic State. Dr. Antonio Giustozzi examines the relationship between the IS-KP and the larger insurgent group in Afghanistan - the Taliban. Read "Taliban and Islamic State: Enemies or Brothers in Jihad?", Center for Research & Policy Analysis, December 14, 2017.

Spain Sending Troops. According to a recent news report Spain will be sending more troops to Afghanistan. (Tolo News, Jan 19, 2018).

Militia Members Killed. Balkh province officials say that 18 people were killed in Sholgara district on Saturday, January 20th. Most of the dead were members of a Public Uprising Force. (Tolo News, Jan 21, 2018).

Movies and Videos about Afghanistan

Healing Afghanistan's Heroes, Resolute Support, January 22, 2018. (2 mins). A short video that features Kandahar Regional Military Hospital (KRMH).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4H77cLPQ8JY

Trauma. Read a review of a documentary about a U.S. Army Black Hawk MEDEVAC crew that debuted on ITunes and Amazon. The documentary is based on filming that took place in 2011 in Afghanistan - the second deadliest year for coalition forces since the start of the war. "Afghan War Documentary 'Trauma' Does Justice To The Difficult Job of Combat Medic", Task and Purpose, January 19, 2018.

Movie - 12 Strong. On January 19, 2018 a new movie was released across the U.S. depicting the exploits of a 12-man Special Forces Operational Detachment - Alpha (SFODA) that entered Afghanistan by helicopter shortly after the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Once inserted into northern Afghanistan the men mounted horses and rode into battle with the warlord Dostum to capture Mazar-e-Sharif. Read more in "Movie - 12 Strong - the Horsemen of Northern Afghanistan", SOF News, October 17, 2017.

Controlling the Air in Mazar-e-Sharif. Resolute Support, January 5, 2018. A Hungarian air traffic controller talks about her advising duties at Mazar-e-Sharif with TAAC-North.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4RU5G6tJ68

Afghan Commandos have a Message for the Taliban, Resolute Support, January 2, 2018.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0XhCsZj8Yw

Georgian Ranger Company Keeps RS HQ Safe Day and Night, Resolute Support, YouTube.com, December 17, 2017.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7thNZdnjNvc

Back to the Future in Afghanistan? 1 1/2 hour long video of a panel discussion that examines if U.S. and Russia can cooperate in Afghanistan. Panelists include Barnett Rubin, and Dr. Ekaterina Stepanova, Dipali Mukhopadhaya. Posted by The Harriman Institute at Columbia University on October 30, 2017.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvSzyIsyrC4

Afghan National Army Signal School, Resolute Support, August 6, 2017. A short 3-min video of classroom instruction at the Afghan signal school at Camp Shaheen in Mazar-e-Sharif.
www.dvidshub.net/video/580800/afghan-national-army-signal-school-b-roll

View a list of videos about Afghanistan.

Afghan News Snippets

OCHA Humanitarian Bulletin. The December 2017 Humanitarian Bulletin is now available.

UN SC and Gridlock. The United Nations Security Council visited Kabul recently and managed to screw up traffic in Kabul (security concerns, you know). Read more about the UN SC's 'firsthand look' at the security situation in Afghanistan. (Gandhara, Jan 15, 2018).

River Problems in Northern Afghanistan. Countries upstream of the Amu River intervene to stabilize the river banks; but this seems to pose problems to Afghan landowners along the banks of the river in northern Afghanistan. "Afghan Land Endangered by Amu River", IWPR, January 23, 2018.

CIA's Khost Protection Force. The KPT is an Afghan militia backed by the CIA. It provide some security to the province yet is a source of problems for many local residents. (Think Progress, Dec 13, 2017).

U.S. Security Assistance to Pakistan - "Not so much". Read a background briefing on security assistance to a trouble-some neighbor of Afghanistan. (U.S. State Department, Jan 4, 2018).

Report on USAID in Afghanistan. For 16 years the U.S. Agency for International Development sought to deliver effective development results in a war zone. Read up on this topic in "USAID in Afghanistan: Challenges and Successes", United States Institute for Peace (USIP), December 21, 2017.

SIGAR and TFBSO - What's the Deal? The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has a reputation for calling out the U.S. military and USAID on failed projects in Afghanistan - of which there are hundreds. One SIGAR report heavily criticizes the Task Force for Business and Stability Operations (TFBSO). One accusation is that it spent $43 million on a gas station. But Jeff Goodson, a career Foreign Service Officer, throws the red BS flag. Read his article posted in The Hill on January 17, 2018.

German Withdrawal "Too Soon". German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen said that the withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan in recent years had been too rapid. (Reuters, Dec 18, 2017).

IDP Protection in Afghanistan. A new study reveals major gaps in access to key humanitarian services for internally displaced persons in Afghanistan. "Escaping War: Where to next? The Challenges of IDP Protection in Afghanistan", Norwegian Refugee Council, January 24, 2018.

Corruption and the Salang Pass. Much of the commerce between Kabul and the Central Asian States run along a road that traverses the Salang Pass. The road is in poor shape and corruption has much to do with the inability to repair the road. Read more in "Corruption at 13,000 feet: Afghanistan struggles to maintain a treacherous mountain trade route", The Washington Post, January 22, 2018.

Glossary of Humanitarian Security Terms. The Humanitarian Security Forum has published an online reference point for terminology in conflict zones.
https://www.hsforum.org/glossary.html

Stay Informed about the Conflict in Afghanistan

Sunday, December 10, 2017

Holiday Break from Posting & Newsletter

The holiday season is upon us and the Afghan War Blog will be taking a break from posting articles on its blog and sending out the Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter. Holidays, vacation, travel, social activities, work, and other writing projects will put a strain on time over the next month. It is hard to do everything 'well' when there are competing requirements for time; so sometimes it is prudent to do less. We will regroup after the holidays and resume posting articles and sending out the newsletter in mid-January.

Train, Advise, Assist, Accompany, and Enable (TA3E) Mission in Afghanistan

Australian advisor with his Afghan counterpart

Training for Child Sex Abuse in Afghanistan. US troops will soon be receiving training on how to report child sex abuse by Afghan army and police. General Nicholson, the commander of the Resolute Support Mission, recently stated that there is a new policy that sets out procedures for monitoring and reporting violations by any security personnel suspected of child abuse. The media has reported for several years on cases of bacha bazi or 'boy play' by Afghan security personnel. See "US Troops to be Trained on Reporting Child Sex Abuse by Afghans", Military.com, December 3, 2017.

40th ID Trains Up for Deployment. California guardsmen will soon deploy to TAAC-South but first they have some training to do to get ready . . . by training with French troops in lovely Bydgoszcz, Poland. (Stars and Stripes, Dec 8, 2017).

45th BCT Trains Up for Deployment. Members of the Oklahoma Army National Guard are heading overseas soon to take part in the NATO train, advise, and assist mission in Afghanistan. But first the must finish their training at Fort Bliss, Texas. Hmmm. Bydgozcz or Bliss. Been to both. I'll take Bydgozcz! (DVIDS, Dec 7, 2017).

Military Advisor Training Academy - MATA. The U.S. Army has established a new school for training advisors who will conduct security force assistance missions. Read about the new MATA.
www.sof.news/sfa/mata-military-advisor-training-academy

Assessing Soldiers for Advisor Training. The Army is standing up six Security Force Assistance Brigades or SFABs. The 1st SFAB is due to deploy to Afghanistan in early 2018 to field advisor teams for the Afghan National Army. Currently the Army has an assessment process for officers and NCOs seeking to join the SFABs. Read more in 1st SFAB Assesses Candidates, by Sgt. Arjenis Nunuz, Army.mil, November 3, 2017 and The Army's New Advisory Units Don't Need The Best Officers, They Need the Right Ones, by Rick Montcalm, Modern War Institute, December 7, 2017.

1st SFAB "Kandak Enabler MOSs". A posting by 1st SFAB on their Facebook recruiting page on December 7, 2017 provided a listing of SFAB Military Occupational Specialties (MOSs) required for its brigade staff and advisory teams.

Another SFAB. The Army announced that the second of six SFABs will be established in January 2018. It will be based on Fort Bragg, North Carolina. See "Army announces activation of second Security Force Assistance Brigade at Fort Bragg", Army.mil, December 8, 2017.

NCO Journal Article on SFABs. Learn more about the SFABs in this recent article. (NCO Journal, 8 December 2017).

Combat Advising - Doesn't Get Old. A 1st Sgt with the newly-formed 1st SFAB provides his perspective on the upcoming advisory mission his unit will perform in Afghanistan. A veteran of advisory tours in Afghanistan and Iraq he knows what the job will entail. Read "Combat Advising Never Gets Old for this 1st SFAB Infantryman", DVIDS, November 6, 2017.

Read more about the 1st Security Force Assistance Brigade - SFAB.

Read recent news reports about the 1st Security Force Assistance Brigade - SFAB.

Bibliography for Resolute Support Advisors in Afghanistan

The Annotated Bibliography for Resolute Support has been updated and posted. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission ended on 31 December 2014 and the NATO Resolute Support Mission (RSM) began on 1 January 2015. The Resolute Support Mission is primarily Security Force Assistance (SFA) along functional areas at the ministry, institutional, and ANA corps level. Some advisory teams are working at the brigade and kandak level.

The bibliography will be very helpful for advisors at all levels in Afghanistan as well as staff members of the RS mission. It has links to hundreds of documents, papers, publications, and websites about advising, the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces, and Afghanistan. The bibliography is updated periodically and the date of revision is posted on the first page. The publication is an Adobe Acrobat PDF, is more than 200 pages long, and is less than 3 MBs big. You can read online or download at the link below. Updated on 8 Dec 2017.

www.afghanwarnews.info/pubs/RSM-Bibliography.htm

Afghanistan Ministry of Defense's Child Protection Policy

The Ministry of Defense of Afghanistan has signed and put into force a Child Protection Policy. The initiative codifies a number of measures to provide for protection for children - including preventing the use of violence against children by personnel in the Afghan National Army and the Ministry of Defense (MoD). The policy establishes a system for the monitoring, reporting, and investigating of violations by MoD personnel.

NATO's Resolute Support mission is also taking some steps to improve its monitoring and reporting system for instances of child abuse by members of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). Pre-deployment training and in-theater training of personnel has improved on the topic of child abuse in Afghanistan perpetrated by members of the ANDSF. Training is also taking place for many of the NATO officers and NCOs that are deploying to Afghanistan as advisors at the NATO Joint Force Training Centre (JFTC) in Bydgoszcz, Poland. Personnel who are scheduled to deploy to Afghanistan can also access an online NATO-distributed learning course on Children and Armed Conflict - developed with the support of the United Nations in New York.

A big driver for the adoption of improved reporting procedures by Resolute Support are the numerous reports of sexual child abuse by the ANDSF that has gotten the attention of Congressional leaders in Washington. The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) and the Department of Defense Inspector General's office have released reports in 2017 on the topic. The instances of 'boy play' or bachi bazi by members of the ANDSF has captured the attention of human rights activists and other critics and observers of the Afghan conflict. This has prompted questions about Resolute Supports reporting history when military personnel have witnessed or come across evidence of instances of bachi bazi.

Read "Resolute Support's Role in Helping to Protect Children in Armed Conflict", Resolute Support HQs, December 5, 2017.