Afghan War Blog

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Four New A-29 Super Tucanos for AAF

Photo: Resolute Support HQs, Jan 15, 2016

Four A-29 Super Tucanos touched down at Kabul's international airport in mid-January 2016. It has taken a long time (years) to get to this stage but Afghanistan has finally got some fixed-wing aircraft so that the Afghan Air Force (AAF) can provide air support in its counterinsurgency fight against the Taliban. The A-29 is a light-support aircraft capable of conducting close air support, aerial escort, armed overwatch, and aerial interdiction. The first Afghan A-29 pilots completed over 300 days of flight training at Moody Air Force Base in Georgia, (U.S.) in December 2015. The pilots and their aircraft should be combat-ready in April. The AAF is expected to receive 20 a-29s in the next few years. Watch a short video (1 min) posted by Resolute Support hqs on YouTube.com on January 16, 2016 entitled The Afghan National Airforce gets four new A29s.

On a related note, one of the two missing Afghan airmen who disappeared in the United States in December 2015 has been located. The two were part of a group of 14 undergoing maintenance training for the A-29 aircraft at Moody AFB. One of the men was an AAF lietuenant while the other was a senior master sergeant. They went missing one week prior to their scheduled graduation and return to Afghanistan. (ABC News, Jan 14, 2016).

Women in Combat

Photo by Micaiah Anthony USAF

Selective Service for Women? With the new policy of opening up all combat arms jobs (to include special operations and aviation) to women some commentators are broaching the topic of mandating selective service registration for women. After all, the argument goes, along with opportunity and equal rights comes equal responsibility! However, there are some (Carl Forsling is one) that feel the Selective Service system is an antiquated relic of a bygone era and should be eliminated for all Americans. Read more in "Including Women Is Not the Right Next Step for Selective Service", Task & Purpose, January 5, 2016.

Women and Special Operations Forces. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter announced in December 2015 that women are now eligible to enter combat units, training, and occupations - including special operations forces. The success of three females in graduating from the U.S. Army Ranger School helped (in part) to pave the way for leadership decisions to allow women into the special operations community. Read more in "Integration of Women in SOF Units", SOFREP, January 14, 2016.

Article - "Truth about Women in Combat". One veteran, Daniel L. Davis, of both Iraq and Afghanistan says there are good reasons not to fully integrate women into combat units. Read "The Truth About Women in Ground Combat Roles", National Interest, January 14, 2016.

Panel Discussion - "Women Soldiers on the Battlefield". The Hoover Institution's National Security, Technology, and Law Working Group will be holding a discussion on the growing role of women soldiers in special operations and beyond in America's post-9/11 wars. The author of Ashley's War, Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, will be present during the event. Event takes place in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, January 19th.

Intelligence News

Article - Presidential Intelligence. Samuel F. Rascoff has penned an article concerning the role of the President and the National Security Council in overseeing foreign intelligence collection. Rascoff is a Professor of Law as well as Faculty Director for the Center on Law and Security at the New York University Law School. Several responses to his article are also available. Read the article and responses in Harvard Law Review.

Commentary

Long-Term U.S. Commitment needed. "Can Americans - and their next president - see past short-term campaign promises to save Afghanistan?" Currently there are 9,800 U.S. military serving in Afghanistan. This number should stay constant for the remainder of this year. But a new president will soon take the reins and with that change will come new policies. Read more in "Building Afghan Security Requires a Long-Term U.S. Commitment", Defense One, January 11, 2016.

Time for a Permanent Advisory Unit? The odds are that the U.S. is going to be deploying advisors to Afghanistan and Iraq for a long time. In addition, the "Building Partnership Capacity (BPC)" mission to many areas of the world will require service members who know how to train, mentor, and advise. Perhaps the time has come to consider a full-time and permanent unit similar to the Advise and Assist Brigades (AABs) deployed to Iraq or the Security Force Assistance Brigades (SFABs) deployed to Afghanistan? Read more in "Learning From Our Mistakes in Selection and Training of Military Advisors", SOFREP, January 14, 2016.

Podcast on Afghan War. One war correspondent with lots of time in Afghanistan is interviewed about his thoughts on the war and the upcoming year. Listen to Franz-Stefan Gady in Can the Afghan War Be Won in 2016?, The Diplomat, January 14, 2016.

Obama SOTU Address: Not Much to Say on Afg. In his annual State of the Union address President Barack Obama did not have much to say about the never-ending conflict in Afghanistan. But, then again, why bring up bad news when you are trying to paint a rosy picture about your presidency? Read more in "Afghan war grinds on, but it's mostly absent from Obama's final State of the Union", by Missy Ryan, The Washington Post, January 12, 2016.

Worries on Cutting Defense Spending. David A. Ochmanek, a senior defense analyst at RAND Corporation, is concerned about defense cuts. Read "If We Keep Cutting Defense Spending, We Must Do Less", RAND Corporation, January 2016.

Veteran Expresses Perspective on Continued Fighting. A Marine veteran, who served with the infantry in Afghanistan, reflects on the 15th year of the Afghan War. (Task & Purpose, Jan 14, 2016).

2015 Fighting Season. Jason Lyall, an Associate Professor of Political Science at Yale University, has posted a map depicting districts in Afghanistan that saw over 100 plus Taliban fighters gather to mount an attack on the Afghan security forces. See "Here are the five things you need to know about the 2015 fighting season in Afghanistan", The Washington Post, January 12, 2016.

Security News

Northern Afghanistan at Risk. Over the past few years the security situation in northern Afghanistan has slowly deteriorated. This area used to be fairly secure when compared to the rest of the country. However the re-establishment of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and emergence of significant pockets of Taliban groups has made this part of Afghanistan very dangerous. Not only is this a problem for Afghanistan but the growth of foreign fighter groups pose security difficulties for Central Asian states as well. Learn more in an essay by Abubakar Siddique entitled "Unrest in Northern Afghanistan Heralds Regional Threats", The Jamestown Foundation, January 7, 2016.

Darqad District Recaptured. After being held by the Taliban for over 75 days a district in northern Afghanistan has been re-captured by the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). The Darqad district of northern Takhar province was taken by government forces on early Sunday, January 10th. Read more in "Security Forces Re-Take Takhar's Darqad District After Nearly 3 Months", Tolo News, January 10, 2016.

Embassy Emergency Msg. On Sunday, January 10th, the U.S. Embassy in Kabul issued an emergency message that said an unidentified group of militants planned to kidnap members of an NGO based in Nangarhar province. See the warning, Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC), January 10, 2016.

Senator Reed - "Conditions Based Withdrawal". Senator Jack Reed (D-R.I.) is the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee. He has just returned from a visit to Afghanistan and says a few things have happened that require a re-look at the withdrawal plan for U.S. troops - the growth of ISIS in Afghanistan and the Taliban fighting through the winter season. Read "Senate Dem suggest Obama should shift Afghan plan", The Hill, January 15, 2016.

ANA - "Mission Incapable"? A secret NATO report seen by Der Speigel, a German magazine, says that the Afghan National Army (ANA) remains an entity hardly capable of carrying out the functions of a military force. Of its 101 infantry units only one has been characterized as effectively battle-ready, 38 are having massive problems, and ten battalions are not operational. High combat losses have reduced unit strength and readiness. Desertions has increased dramatically also reducing combat effectiveness. The Taliban enjoy unlimited movement in many provinces of Afghanistan; especially Helmand, Kandahar, Kunduz, and Badakhshan. Read more in "NATO Report Slams Afghan Army As Mission Incapable", Tolo News, January 10, 2016.

"Ghost Soldiers". A contributing factor to the ineffectiveness of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) are the numerous "ghost soldiers" or "ghost policemen". A ghost soldier or policeman is one who is on the books, gets paid, but doesn't show up for work. Another type of "ghost" is one who has been killed or has left the security forces but whose paycheck goes to his commanding officer or some other corrupt official. Some estimates say that 40 percent of the police and army forces simply don't exist. Read more in "Ghost troops slowing down Afghanistan's military", CBS News, January 10, 2016.

"Community Policing". The Police-e Mardume Department of the Afghan Ministry of Interior has organized meetings between the police and citizens in the provinces. "Brigadier General Humayoon Aineed stated that the relationship between the people and the police has changed positively and the people trust the police". (His words, not mine). Read more in "Community Policing: Meetings with citizens result in cooperation and trust", European Union External Action, January 2016.

AAF to Receive MD-530F Choppers. According to a recent news report the Afghan Air Force (AAF) will soon receive more helicopters. See "Afghan Air Force to receive 12 warrior helicopters from US", Khaama Press, January 12, 2016.

Urban Ops by Taliban. Despite years of manning the city checkpoints (called "The Ring of Steel") the Afghan security forces are still not able to prevent high-profile attacks by the Taliban. Read more in "Taliban Step Up Urban Assaults, Testing the Mettle of Afghan Forces", The New York Times, January 9, 2016.

Most Dangerous City in the World? Ummm, yep. Kabul. Read more in "Top 7 World's Most Dangerous Cities", PPCorn, December 28, 2015.

Opium & Drug Addiction in Afghanistan

Camp Phoenix - Now Drug Rehab Center. Afghanistan has a serious drug addiction problem. Many of its addicts go to Kabul to seek cheap drugs and employment. They often find themselves living under the city's bridges over the Kabul River. In an effort to held drug addicts (and also to remove the public eyesore of addicts along the river bank) the Afghans have converted Camp Phoenix (located on the outskirts of Kabul on the Jalalabad Road) to a drug rehabilitation center where addicts receive medical assistance, meals, and a bed to sleep in. Read more in "From Under Kabul's Briges, Addicts Get Help at Old U.S. Base", The New York Times, January 10, 2016.

Cultural History of Opium. Over the last few decades Afghanistan has become the largest opium producer in the world. However, its early beginnings are found to be from outside Afghanistan. Read more in "On the Cultural History of Opium - and how poppy came to Afghanistan", Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), January 11, 2016.

Helmand Province Update

Battle for Helmand. Much of the province is in the hands of the insurgents. The provincial capital, Lashkar Gah, remains secure but its citizens are worried. The district centers may be under the control of the government forces; but this usually means the government troops and police occupy a small compound of several buildings where the district government offices are located. Typically the district governor (DGov) and other government officials (MAIL, MRRD, etc.) are located in the provincial capital. Read more in "Afghanistan Taliban: Mistrust and fear in battle for Helmand", BBC News, January 13, 2016.

ICRC in Helmand Province. Watch a short video (2 mins) about the International Committee of the Red Cross activities in this very troubled province. Facebook, January 7, 2016.

Helmand Casualties. More than 700 Afghan civilians have been killed or injured in the last nine months in Helmand province. (Radio Free Europe, Jan 14, 2016).

Air Power

Should We Unleash America's Airpower in Afghanistan? David Petraeus (former ISAF commander and CIA Director) and Michael O'Hanlon (a cheerleader for a deeper involvement of U.S. forces in Afghanistan) combined in this opinion piece to argue that we need to increase the air strikes in Afghanistan to help the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces until such time that their air force can get up to speed. They argue that while the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Coalition partners are conducting daily strikes to defeat (or degrade) the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria much less is being done in Afghanistan. Read more in "It's time to unleash America's airpower in Afghanistan", The Washington Post, January 14, 2016.

RoE for Air Support Too Restrictive? Eli Lake, a columnist who writes on foreign affairs and national security, shares his view on tight Rules of Engagement (ROE) for use of airpower in Afghanistan in "U.S. Forces Tied by Old Rules in Afghanistan", Bloomberg View, January 12, 2016.

Information Operations (IO) & Social Media

"Once again the Obama administration is revising its programs to counter and defeat the self-styled Islamic State, particularly on the battlefield of ideas. With no apparent decline in supporters flocking to the movement nor any shortage of unhinged murderers inspired by it, State Department officials announced that they were creating a new "Global Engagement Center" to combat the Islamic State online. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama me with social media-savvy representatives from Facebook, Twitter and YouTube to convince them to join the effort". - - - -

This is yet one more attempt by the United States to attempt to win the social media battle against the Islamic State. Read more in "Why the U.S. Is Losing the War of Ideas Against Transnational Extremism", by Steven Metz, World Politics Review, January 15, 2016.

Governance

Report - Provincial Governors in Afghan Politics. When the current government of Afghanistan got its start post 9/11 the European powers put into place (with the agreement of some representatives of segments of Afghan society) a strong central government structure. This provided the executive branch - the President of Afghanistan - with the ability to appoint the 34 provincial governors. The presidency of Hamid Karzai was expected to usher in a new age of democracy and governance to Afghanistan - but it fell short. One of the areas where it failed was in sub-national governance and much of this failure is placed on the selection of the provincial governors of the Karzai period of rule. Read more in Provincial Governors in Afghan Politics, by Dipali Mukhopadha, United States Institute of Peace (USIP), January 8, 2016.

Ghazni Jailbreak of Sep 15 & Govt Failure. In September 2015 Taleban fighters broke into a jail in the province of Ghazni and feed hundreds of inmates. It was thoroughly planned and and lots of fighters participating. Read how it happened in "Ghazni Jailbreak: Where the government failed and its enemy succeeded", Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), January 15, 2016.

Education in Afghanistan. Many observers and critics of the Afghan conflict wonder if the effort in lives and money has been worth it. U.S. government and military officials tend to provide information that would indicate the sacrifice has not been in vain. Many times they point to advances in medical services, the economy, and education as proof that things are much better than the years prior to 2002 under the Taliban regime. However, the news is not as rosy as we would be led to believe - especially in education. "An estimated 40 percent of Afghanistan's children are not in school." Read more in "Measuring Afghanistan's Education Problem", The Diplomat, January 13, 2016.

Talking about Peace Talks

On Monday, January 11th, the countries of Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States and China gathered to discuss negotiations for future peace talks with the Taliban. These talks and a second round of talks to be held in Kabul on January 18th will lay the groundwork for future talks with the Taliban. Pakistan offered up a list of Taliban leaders who they say are willing to take part in peace negotiations. Any progress made will depend on Pakistan - as they support the Afghan Taliban and provide the group with sanctuaries from which to train, rest, refit, and plan operations. It is unknown what real progress has been made but the world is hopeful. One important person not attending the current round of peace talks is Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, the current leader of the Afghan Taliban. (See article on Mansour by The Washington Post, Jan 10, 2016). The Embassy of Afghanistan (in D.C.) issued a joint press release about the outcome of the peace talks held in Islamabad on January 11th, 2016.

Key to Successful Peace Talks. The road to resolving the Afghan conflict through negotiations between the Taliban and Afghan government lies with Pakistan's intentions. Is Pakistan sincere in wanting to bring stability and security to Afghanistan or are they more concerned with 'strategic depth' in Afghanistan and countering India's influence in the region. Read "The Key to Successful Afghan Peace Talks", SOFREP, January 14, 2016.

Involve Women in Peace Process. The Human Rights Watch organization wants the four countries engaged in talks to advance peace negotiations between the Taliban and Afghanistan to include women in the peace process. Read more in "Afghanistan: Set Out Concrete Plan to Involve Women", Human Rights Watch, January 12, 2016.

Differences an Obstacle to Talks. Officials from Pakistan and Afghanistan are publicly airing their differences even amidst the latest round of peace talks.(Voice of America, Jan 11, 2016).

ISIS in Afghanistan

ISIS in Afghanistan - Meeting Some Challenges. In early 2015 it became apparent that the Islamic State was once again attempting to expand its reach across the globe. Now the target was Wilayat Khorasan - a territory encompassing Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, it hasn't been smooth riding thus far as the Taliban are taking issue with the encroaching jihadist movement - and the Taliban has some significant advantages. but the fight isn't over yet. Read "The Graveyard of Caliphates", by Nathaniel Barr and Bridget Moreng, Foreign Affairs, January 13, 2016.

ISIS now Terrorist Group. The U.S. government has designated the Khorasan branch of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) - sometimes referred to as ISIL-K - as a terrorist organization. The group currently operates in some of the remote parts of the Afghanistan and Pakistan border. (Khaama Press, Jan 14, 2016).

ISIS attack on Pakistani Consulate. The Pakistani's consulate in Jalalabad was attacked resulting in seven Afghan security personnel killed and ten civilians wounded. None of the consulate staff were wounded or killed. IS claimed responsibility for the attack. The attack was initiated with a suicide bomber targeting a police vehicle outside the consulate followed by two assailants entering a building next to the compound. (The Washington Post, Jan 13, 2016).

Consulate Attack an Expansion of IS Activities. Observers see an escalation by the Islamic State group in Afghanistan that should be worrying to the Afghan government. Read "Islamic State claim signals escalation by group in Afghanistan", Stars and Stripes, January 14, 2016.

ISIS: Shave Your Beard, Wear a Cross. ISIS is advising supporters, fighters, and recruits in the West to pretend to be Christians, shave their beards, and wear a cross in order to be successful in their "lone wolf attacks". (Voice of America, Jan 12, 2016).

U.S. Drone Strike Targets ISIS. News reports say that a U.S. drone launched a missile attack against Islamic State militants in eastern Nangarhar province on January 8th (Friday). Up to 20 militants are reported dead.(Reuters, Jan 10, 2016).

Desert Storm - 25 Years

Operation Desert Storm kicked off 25 years ago. In 100 hours the United States and its Coalition allies dislodged Iraqi military forces from Kuwait and forced their retreat towards Baghdad. (Photo from DoD).

Afghan War News Snippets

Flying the Flag. Troops overseas are counseled about flying the U.S. flag in combat zones. Typically, the directives state that the flag should only be flown alongside partner nations (Iraq, Afghanistan, NATO countries, etc.). However, sometimes units operating at small fire bases or on patrols have trouble containing their patriotism. During a recent battle in Helmand province a Special Forces detachment took time out to briefly fly the American flag on top of a building. The SF team had suffered one death and two wounded during an intense firefight engagement with the Taliban. Read more on this topic in "This patriotic photo of Green Berets in Afghanistan is circulating after this week's deadly attack", by Dan Lamothe, The Washington Post, January 8, 2016.

Canadian Hostage Released by Taliban? A Canadian has been freed from captivity in Afghanistan after being taken hostage by the Taliban five years ago. Read more in "Canadian freed five years after Taliban kidnapping", Yahoo! News, January 11, 2016.

SACEUR Visit to Kabul. The Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) recently visited Resolute Support headquarters in Kabul and met with senior RS officers. See "SACEUR visits HQ RS", January 11, 2016.

Russia and TAPI. The gas pipeline that will (hopefully) run from Turkmenistan to India (crossing Afghanistan) is proceeding in its construction. The completion of TAPI is certainly not in Russia's interests and it is proposing several alternatives. Read "Russia and the TAPI Pipeline", The Jamestown Foundation, December 18, 2015.

Russia Supplying Wpns to Afg? More and more news reports say that Russia will possibly start providing weapons to Afghanistan. Russia is concerned about the increasing instability of Afghanistan and the possibility that jihadist groups will turn their eyes northward from Afghanistan towards the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Read more in "Russia to Supply Small Arms to Afghanistan", Associated Press, January 13, 2016.

MoH Recipient Interview. Captain (Ret) Flo Groberg received the Medal of Honor for his actions in saving fellow servicemen during an attack in February 2012. Read an interview by Mike Kelvington posted on The Havoc Journal, January 15, 2016.

Doctors Absent from Rural Areas. Medical centres tend to be concentrated in urban areas, leaving villagers little access to care. Read more in "More Doctors Needed in Afghan Districts", Institute for War & Peace Reporting (IWPR), January 2016.

New Book - "The Lovers". Rod Nordland, an author and correspondent for The New York Times, has wrote a book about a young Afghan couple who risked everything for love. Read more about the book at Harper Collins Publishers.

RS HQs Video. This 1-minute long video posted by Resolute Support HQs provides a brief explanation of the "Train, Advise, and Assist" mission of NATO in Afghanistan.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vbt1R4DfASs

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Sunday, January 10, 2016

Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter - January 10, 2016

Welcome to the Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter. Articles are posted online on the blog and sent out via email newsletter on Sunday morning. We welcome comments, ideas for stories, contributions, and guest writers! Visit our website at www.afghanwarnews.info, follow us on Twitter at @AfghanWarBlog, and on LinkedIn at www.linkedin.com/in/afghan-war-news.

U.S. Special Forces Soldier KIA in Marjar, Helmand

Matthew McClintock
U.S. Army Photo

A U.S. Army Special Forces Soldier was killed during fighting in Marja district of Helmand province on January 5, 2016. SSG Matthew Q. McClintock, age 30, of 1st Battalion 19th Special Forces Group was killed by small arms fire. His SFODA was accompanying an Afghan SOF unit in an advisory capacity when it encountered insurgents. Two other SF Soldiers were wounded in the engagement. One rescue helicopter was waved off due to enemy fire and another rescue helicopter was grounded with its crew in the vicinity of the attack due to fire received or a mechanical issue. Four Afghan Special Ops personnel were also wounded. News reports indicate it took several hours to evacuate the wounded special operators due to the intense fighting. McClintock was on his third combat tour. He had previously served with the 1st Cavalry Division and the 1st Special Forces Group. He leaves behind a wife and infant son.

News Reports on the incident:

"Casualty Report", USFOR-A News Release, January 5, 2016.

"Afghanistan conflict: US casualties on special forces mission", BBC News, January 5, 2016.

"DoD Identifies Army Casualty", DoD News Release, January 6, 2016.

"DoD identifies Special Forces soldier killed in Afghanistan", Army Times, January 6, 2016.

"Pentagon identifies Army Special Forces soldier killed in Afghanistan", The Washington Post, January 6, 2015.

Helmand Province at Risk

Map WikipediA - Creative Commons

The Taliban have passed on their usual winter break in Helmand province. Usually the TB fighters head to their homes or cross the border to their sanctuaries in Pakistan - returning in the spring for the start of the new fighting season in the April or May time frame. This year has been different. Many of the districts of Helmand province are under the control of the Taliban. Although the Afghan government claims to control some of the districts - this control is usually just the district center . . . a group of government buildings within a walled compound with 30 to 60 Afghan National Police (ANP) protecting it. The roads and countryside outside of the district center is a no-go area for government troops and police unless in large convoys. Helmand province is sometimes referred to as the birthplace of the Taliban. There are many observers who see the fight in Helmand as one between tribes over control of the drug trade and not so much as one between insurgents and government forces. Listed below are a number of recent news stories about the current security situation in Helmand province.

"Utah soldiers under fire in latest Afghanistan fighting", The Salt Lake Tribune, January 7, 2016. Teams from the Army National Guard's Special Forces are in Afghanistan. The death of an SF Soldier prompts questions on the U.S. role in Afghanistan. Are they doing "Train, Advise, and Assist" or conducting combat. The Pentagon says that the troops are in a 'combat situation' but not 'a combat role'. Read more in "Pentagon: US troops in 'combat situation' in Afghanistan", The Hill Blog, January 7, 2016.

"Washington Policy Leaves Special Forces Soldiers Flapping in the Breeze in Marjah, Afghanistan", SOFREP, January 7, 2016. Questions surface about the air support and quick reaction forces timeliness to relieve the surrounded SF team in Marjah district. See also "Congressman questions if Army Special Forces denied rescue force, fire support", The Washington Post, January 7, 2016. And, of course, the official party line is provided in "CENTCOM: AC-130 'absolutely did fire' in Marjah battle against Taliban", Stars and Stripes, January 8, 2016.

"Bagram F-16s Support Helmand Province Operations", DVIDS Video (2 mins), January 6, 2016. Aircraft based at Bagram Air Field provide CAS across the country.

Losing Marjah District to the Taliban. In 2010, the U.S. Marines, supported by other services and Coalition members mounted a huge offensive - called Operation Moshtarak - to take Marjah district, Helmand province from the Taliban. The Taliban fought but were defeated and moved on to other sanctuaries to continue the fight. The attempt to establish governance by the Afghan government in Marjah district - which the U.S. was calling 'governance in a box' - failed miserably. A misunderstanding of Afghan ideology is key to the coalition's failure to maintain control of the district. After the pullout of the U.S. Marines a few years back the Taliban returned. Read more in "A look at how the US-led coalition lost Afghanistan's Marjah district to the Taliban", by Heath Druzin, Stars and Stripes, January 16, 2016.

"A critical Afghan town, once secure, is now a Taliban hotbed again", by Max Boot, Business Insider, January 6, 2016. Max reports on a place that was hard-fought for by the Marines and others. See also "Much Sacrifice, Little Progress", by Max Boot, Commentary, January 6, 2016.

"Taliban Tactics Hinder Special Operations Forces", by Mark Moyer, Military History in the News, Hoover Institution of Stanford University, January 7, 2016. Moyer explains how the irregular tactics of the Taliban have confounded U.S. security forces.

SOF News

Joe Votel to CENTCOM. News reports indicate that General Votel, the commander of U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), is being nominated for commander of Central Command (CENTCOM). No word on who will take USSOCOM (another SEAL, another JSOC dude, or just maybe - a Green Beret!).

Tony Thomas to USSOCOM? Some news reports say that the current commander of the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), LTG "Tony" Thomas, will take the helm at USSOCOM. Thomas commanded the Special Operations Joint Task Force - Afghanistan (SOJTF-A) a few years ago. If selected "Thomas would be the third former JSOC commander in a row to head up SOCOM; the last time a career Green Beret held the post was more than 15 years ago, before the war on terror began, even though Green Berets account for by far the plurality of SOCOM's special operators and are seeing increased use from Africa to Afghanistan as the military tries to shape the war efforts of allied militaries and irregular forces". Read more in "This shadowy JSOC general is expected to be the next leader of America's special operations forces", The Washington Post, January 7, 2016.

Other Contenders for USSOCOM? LTG John Mulholland, currently assigned to the CIA, is being considered. A long-shot might be LTG Ken Tovo - currently commanding USASOC.

BG Brower Returns to Campbell. General Scott Brower, former commander of the 5th Special Forces as well as a former commander of the Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force - AP (Iraq), has taken up a position with the 101st Airborne Division. He previously was CoS at USASOC and had been deployed to Islamabad, Pakistan. Read more in a news report by The Leaf-Chronicle, January 5, 2016.

Does the UK Need "Tier 2" Units? One commentator says the UK should develop a force similar to the U.S. Army Special Forces Green Berets. The Telegraph, January 4, 2016.

Live to Tell - New Documentary Series. Film 45 is rolling out a 8-part series on elite forces that have been fighting the war on terror since 2001. The program, Live to Tell, airs on the History channel on Sunday nights. First show was on January 10th. www.history.com/shows/live-to-tell

How Not to Do Unconventional Warfare. There are certain steps that need to be taken to successfully form up a resistance group or guerrilla band. These phases of Unconventional Warfare (UW) are learned during Special Forces training for future Green Berets. The recent debacle in forming a resistance fighter group in Syria should certainly be integrated into a 'lessons learned' portion of the the instruction at the Special Warfare school at Fort Bragg. Call it "What Not to Do in UW." Read "What really happened to the U.S. train-and-equip program in Syria?", McClatchy DC, December 21, 2015.

Commentary

"War of Ideas". Retired General Eric T. Olson explains the importance of the war of ideas when confronting the Taliban and the Islamic State. He believes the 'human terrain' is an important part of the conflict in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Read "Wars of Ideas" From the Taliban to the Islamic State", War on the Rocks, January 6, 2016.

2015 Success & Failures. Aziz Amin Ahmadzai says that "2015 saw Afghanistan face several challenges, but the National Unit Government (NUG) saw modest success as well." Failures include the Taliban's fragmentation, fall of Kunduz, NUG's ineffectiveness, rise of Islamic State, and migration of Afghan's young people to Europe. Successes are the regional approach to peace, security, and stability, India's support of the Salma Dam, and forward movement of the TAPI pipeline. Read "Afghanistan's Successes and Failures in 2015", The Diplomat, January 4, 2016.

C-SPAN2 Panel Discussion on Afghanistan. On January 4, 2016 a panel discussion took place, hosted by the Brookings Institution, on the Future of Afghanistan. The panelists (Vanda Felbab-Brown, Che Bolden, Jason Cone, Ann Vaughan, and Michael O'Hanlon) talked about the status of the war in Afghanistan and the efforts to stabilize the country. This 1 1/2 hour long video can be watched at the following link.
www.c-span.org/video/?402677-1/discussion-stability-security-afghanistan

Reasons for a Resurgent Taliban? Dawood Azami of the BBC World Service tells us why the Taliban are resurgent in Afghanistan. He cites three factors. First is the withdrawal of the bulk of the international forces from Afghanistan to include a significant reduction in advisors and air support. Second is the Pakistan military operation in 2014 that dislodged many Uzbek, Arab, and Pakistani militants from Pakistan area sanctuaries into Afghanistan. The third reason is the lack of capability of the Afghan security forces in air support, intelligence, and command and control. Naturally there are other factors as well. (BBC, Jan 5, 2016).

RoL & Afghanistan. Greg Klepois served as Senior Advisor to the Afghan Deputy Minister of Interior. He has penned a paper about the importance of understanding local legal structures and traditions before attempting to re-establish the Rule of Law and Police Reform. Posted on Small Wars Journal, December 31, 2015.

China & Afghanistan. China is participating more and more in activities relating to Afghanistan to include economic development and the pursuit of peace talks. Read China and Afghanistan After the NATO Withdrawal, Jamestown Foundation, Richard Weitz, November 2015.

"Red Teaming" - But Just Tell Me Good News! One of the unique endeavors of the Afghan War was an attempt by the U.S. military to look at different aspects of the conflict. The intent was to provide an alternative perspective to courses of action developed as a result of the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) and other staff processes used by many U.S. military staffs. The establishment of "Red Teams" (and there was an 18-week long course run by the Army to train up individuals in this job) at major headquarters went a long way to analyze operations (and their effects) from an different point of view. However, the 'bad news' was not always well-received. Read more in "Red Team: A tale of how a general didn't listen to internal criticism in Afghanistan", Best Defense - Foreign Policy, January 7, 2016.

Bloody Transition. The results of the past year of transition looks pretty grim with both Afghanistan's political condition and its security having sharply deteriorated. Read an analysis entitled "A bloody year of transition", The Economist, January 9, 2016.

Central Asia - Future Outlook. Fatemeh Safavi writes about the security prospects in the future for West and Central Asia in a report posted by Euroasia Review, January 5, 2016.

IR Theory and Gray Zone. USSOCOM has rolled out a concept called the "Gray Zone" in an attempt to inform government leaders and senior ranking military officers on the current and future nature of conflict in the space between peace and war. Many critics and observers are taking stock of this new term and providing their comments. The latest is from Stephen Okin in his blog post entitled "IR Theory and the Gray Zone", January 2, 2016.

Asia Expert Speaks on Afg. Andrew Wilder, vice president of Asia programs at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), speaks with National Public Radio's Scott Simon about why the war in Afghanistan intensified in 2015. He does mention state corruption under Karzai as one of the failures of Afghan leadership. Read "Asia Expert: Taliban's Resergence Threatens Afghanistan's Stability", NPR, January 2, 2016.

Air Power and Afghanistan (and Iraq . . and . . Syria)

A-10 - Photo by USAF

Pub - Airpower in Afghanistan. Dag Henriksen has penned a report about what worked and what did not work during NATO air operations in Afghanistan. He has compiled the perspectives of nine general officers who served in top airpower leadership positions in Afghanistan during the 2005-2010 time frame. Included are recommendations on how joint combined forces can work together in a counterinsurgency or counterterrorism environment. Read Airpower in Afghanistan 2005-2010: The Air Commanders' Perspectives, 2014, 340 pages, Air University Press.

Limits of Air Power. The United States has the best Air Force in the world. But there are limits to its effectiveness in some types of conflicts. Recent disclosures by the State Department and the military say that over 20,000 ISIS militants have been killed with airstrikes in Iraq and Syria. At the beginning of 2015 there were about 30,000 ISIS fighters; at the end of 2015 there are about 30,000 ISIS fighters. Hmmm. Either our 'body count' is wrong or the Islamic State has one heck of a recruiting program! Read more in "Kill-Em-All with Airstrikes Is Not Working" by Micah Zenko, Best Defense, January 7, 2016.

IMU in Afghanistan

Map of Uzbekistan (CIA)

"The 2015 fall of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), a Central Asian jihadi movement that has long fought alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, highlights the impact of two fundamental shifts in the jihadi landscape during 2015. Mobilized by the Afghan Taliban's two-year-long deception over the death of the Taliban's enigmatic and magnetic former leader, Mullah Omar, the IMU responded to the Islamic State's (IS) attempts to create a foothold in Afghanistan".

Read more in "2015 Restrospective: How the Fall of the IMU Reveals the Limits of IS' Expansion", by Margaret Foster, INSITE Blog on Terrorism & Extremism, January 4, 2016.

"Expeditionary Advise and Assist"

The United States plans to keep the troop levels in 2016 the same as 2015 - meaning about 9,800 troops. Many of these military personnel will be conducting the "Train, Advise, and Assist" mission (a part of Security Force Assistance) - which is best done on a full-time and daily basis. It appears that the U.S. is going to move to "expeditionary advise and assist teams" in 2016. This is currently what is in effect for two of the six Afghan Army Corps - the 203rd in Gardez (eastern Afghanistan) and 2015th in Helmand province (southwest Afghanistan). The other four ANA corps have full-time advisors co-located or nearby the corps hqs. Of course the "expeditionary advising" (called Level 2 or Level 3 advising) is no way as effective as daily and persistent advisor presence (called Level 1 advising). Read more in a news report by Military Times, January 3, 2016.

Peace Talks

January 11th Peace Talks. Multi-state peace talks including the nations of China, U.S., Afghanistan and Pakistan are scheduled for January 11th. A second round of talks, not yet scheduled, will be held in Kabul. The participation of China and the United States is consider key by many observers - with hopes that the two nations can keep the talks on track. The representatives of the four nations will meet in Islamabad, Pakistan to revive peace negotiations that stalled in July after the disclosure of the death of the Afghan Taliban leader - Mullah Omar.

Iran & Peace Talks. It is being reported that Iran officials want to have full presence and direct participation in the Afghanistan peace talks process. There is no indication that the United States, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China are having any of that.

Pakistan's Role? Lisa Curtis, a senior research fellow in The Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center, examines Pakistan's role in the never-ending quest to get peace talks established between the Afghan government and the Taliban. She paints a disquieting picture. Afghanistan After America's War, December 2016.

Winter Surge - Taliban Seeking Upper Hand? One commentator believes that the unprecedented winter surge of 2015-2016 by the Taliban points to a desire for an upper hand in peace talks. Read "Afghan Taliban seek leverage in dangerous winter surge", The Times of India, January 6, 2016.

Include Women in Peace Talks? The Human Rights Watch (HRW) organization has come out strongly endorsing the participation of women in the upcoming peace talks scheduled for January 11th. Afghan women and international observers are fearful that the government (and international players) will trade away women's rights as a concession to the Taliban. Read more in "Afghanistan: Include Women in New Peace Talks", Human Rights Watch, January 4, 2016.

Intelligence News

Defense Clandestine Service. A relatively new kid on the block in the intelligence community is the Defense Clandestine Service (DCS). It is part of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and is charged with conducting clandestine activities around the world. The DCS is part of the DIA's Directorate of Operations and is, in part, a consolidation of the Defense Human Intelligence Service. Read more in an entry by WikipediA and in a recent news article by SPEC OPS, January 5, 2016.

Intelligence Reports and Literary Aspirations. Many of us in the military (or those who used to be . . . like me) had literary ambitions that went unsatisfied due to restraints imposed by a bureaucratic institution (as in the U.S. Army). However, sometimes the writer 'just comes out'! Read more in "Fighting Words: Spies, Soldiers, and Stylish Scribes", War on the Rocks, January 8, 2016.

Covert Intelligence and War on Terror. Joshua Perkins, an Army officer, writes about the importance of having covert intelligence agencies that serve a vital function for our nation. Read "Covert Intelligence versus the American Body Politic?", Small Wars Journal, January 7, 2016.

Security News

Kabul Airport Suicide Bombings. A VBIED struck the gates of Kabul airport on Monday morning, January 4th. The driver's suicide vest went off but the explosives in the truck did not. (Reuters, Jan 4, 2016). A second truck bomb attack took place later in the day in the vicinity of the airport - near a contractor's compound. Some reports say that this was Camp Baron. The Baron Hotel in Kabul (one mile from the international airport) is a nice place to live as a contractor (or visitor) if you can afford it. Other reports say it was Camp Sullivan - a location that houses U.S. embassy employees and security personnel. Read more on these attacks in "Taliban claim suicide attack on contractor camp in Kabul", Yahoo! News, January 5, 2016.

U.S. Embassy Low-Balling Compound Damage? The second truck bomb caused extensive structural damage against the outer wall and inside wall of the compound. Over 30 people were injured including nine children. There were also a number of deaths - but the U.S. embassy seems to be mum about the entire incident. Read more in "Is the U.S. Embassy in Kabul the next Benghazi?", Project on Government Oversight (POGO), January 7, 2016.

Bombed French Restaurant Update. See "Taliban target was a pricey French restaurant, but their victims were Afghans", Los Angeles Times, January 2, 2016.

Winter Offensive. "Afghanistan's mountainous terrain and heavy snowfall have traditionally prompted a winter lull in fighting, with the militants using the colder months to rest and regroup ahead of an annual spring offensive". Frud Bezhan tells us about the Taliban's fighting during the 'winter lull' in "The Taliban's Rare Winter Offensive in Afghanistan", Radio Free Europe, January 8, 2016.

Map of Taliban Control. The year 2015 saw the Taliban controlling more territory than at any other time in the 14 year long conflict (U.S. involvement) since 2001. The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) have been pummeled by the insurgents and significant areas of Afghanistan are now under Taliban control. Read more in "Mapped: The Taliban Surged in 2015, but ISIS is Moving In on Its Turf", Foreign Policy, January 4, 2016.

Mi-17 Crash. On Sunday, January 3rd an Afghan Air Force (AAF) Mi-17 helicopter crashed south of Kabul killing 3 Afghan soldiers. The crash took place in the Mohammad Agha district of Logar province. Reports indicate that the chopper was on a training day time flight. (Pajhwok Afghan News, Jan 3, 2016).

General's Convoy Attacked. A convoy carrying a German general was hit in a suicide car-bomb attack near the Kabul airport this past Monday. (Daily Mail, Jan 4, 2016).

Helmand Province. The 215th Maiwand Military Corps commander, MG Mohammad Moin Faqir, says that the security situation in Helmand should improve slowly over time. He says that widespread poppy cultivation and drug trafficking fuels insecurity and provides revenue to the Taliban. The general says that recent operations helped secure several of the provinces districts to include Marjah. Representatives of the Afghan Local Police dispute this claim saying the road from the provincial capital to the district of Marjah is not secured. Read more in "Helmand security to improve soon, says military commander", Pajhwok Afghan News, January 8, 2016.

Provincial HPC Chief Shot Dead. Qari Saifuddin Sadat, the chief of the High Peace Council for the northern province of Samangan was killed on Tuesday, January 5th.

Celebration Fires. On January 6th Kabul erupted with lots of weapons firing into the air on the occasion of the Afghan cricket team defeating Zimbabwe. There seems to be a lack of understanding of what goes up will eventually come down. Some good ammo wasted that could have been better used at some police district centers in Helmand province.

IS & Taliban Fight. Three districts of Nangarhar province are seeing intense fighting between groups of the Islamic State and the Taliban. The usual winter break in the fighting is not being observed very well this year.

Special Anti-IS Force. The Afghan army is forming up a special battalion (kandak) comprised of about 750 former Afghan army members to fight the Islamic State in the eastern part of Afghanistan. They will be based at the 201st Corps headquarters in Laghman province. The base is just a few klics from the Nangarhar province border - where IS is operating. (Voice of America, Jan 6, 2016).

Indian Consulate Attacked in MeS. The consulate for India was attacked in the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif on January 3, 2016. No Indian fatalities were reported among the staff and it appears the gunmen were unsuccessful in breaching the security of the consulate. It took a few days for Afghan commandos to dislodge some of the attackers from a house near the consulate compound. All three attackers were killed as well as one (maybe two) Afghan policeman. Some reports say there were four attackers and that the incident lasted 25 hours; not a few days. See "Siege Ends Near Indian Consulate in Northern Afghanistan", Gandhara Blog, January 5, 2016.

Taliban Review 2015. The Taliban has disseminated what some are calling a progress report on its 2015 activities. Read more in "Taliban Claims Large Swath of Afghan Territory During 2015", Voice of America, January 2, 2016.

Information Operations (IO) News

Counter-Messaging IS. Much has been wrote about how the western nations are having trouble in the information operations arena in countering the Islamic State's narrative. IS has mastered the art of using social media to advance its status among Muslims and for recruitment purposes. David Gartenstein-Ross and Nathaniel Barr believe they have some solutions to this vexing problem. They are saying that there is a gap in the analytic framework that leaves Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) practitioners at a disadvantage. Read "Fixing How We Fight the Islamic State's Narrative", War on the Rocks, January 4, 2016.

"Safe to Say". You have to love the spokespersons for the Defense Department. Adm Kirby was the last one that I could really like. The others . . .

Question: "Is it safe to say that there is still a combat mission in Afghanistan?"
Peter Cook: "It's safe to say Afghanistan is a dangerous place."

Women in Combat

Member of a Female Engagement Team
(FET) in Afghanistan. Photo by DVIDS.

8% of Army Women Want Combat Arms. In 2013 the Army conducted a survey of women in the active duty, reserves, and Army National Guard ranks on their feelings toward entering the combat arms. Of the 30,000 women who responded less than 7.5% said they would want one of the infantry, armor, artillery or combat engineer jobs. Most women who would opt for the combat arms would go with aviation. Certainly flying above the fray rather than slogging along the ground with 60 pounds of rucksack, body armor, radio, medic kit, ammo, helmet, water, food, etc. is much more preferable. But, at some point in the future, women might not get a choice. They may find themselves assigned to combat units whether they like it or not. Read more in "Few Army women want combat jobs, survey finds", USA Today, February 25, 2014.

Women and Navy SEALs. The Navy is looking to recruit more women for the SEAL teams. Read "Admiral outlines push to integrate Navy SEALs, recruit women", Navy Times, January 4, 2016.

"Infantryperson". Nope. Sorry. Not as the same as "Infantryman". Not going to have anyone quivering in fear. Read more in "Marine Corps boot camp, job titles to be gender neutral by April", Marine Corps Times, January 6, 2016.

Marines Not Quite on Board. It appears that there are some high-level 'discussions' going on between the USMC and DoD on the topic of fully integrating women into combat units and in its recruit training. In addition, General John Kelly, head of U.S. Southern Command, came out with some statements that would lead you to believe he doesn't fully endorse the recent changes in regard to integrating women. Read more in "Marine Corps debate over women in combat continues to roil", Marine Corps Times, January 9, 2015.

Women in Combat. A dissenting view is provided by Jude Eden about the full integration of women into the combat arms of the military. Read "The Vast Majority of Military Women Don't Want to be Fully Integrated into the Combat Arms", The Stream, December 22, 2015.

Advice for Women Seeking the Infantry. A U.S. Army infantry officer has some advice for females seeking the thrill (and agony) of the infantry. "Now women need to seek those combat jobs", USA Today, January 9, 2016.

Army Plan to Integrate Women. The Army has submitted its plan to open its infantry, armor, and special operations ranks to women to the Defense Department. (Army Times, Jan 4, 2015).

Bergdahl Update

The court martial for SGT Bergdahl is scheduled for August 2016. There will be several hearings between now and August. In the meantime, if interested, you can listen some podcasts about the whole incident that is airing on Task & Purpose Radio. Lauren Katzenberg of Task & Purpose describes her personal feelings toward the whole event - ranging from empathy for the struggles of Bergdahl during his five-year captivity to her feelings about why he might deserve some punishment after listening to Mike Waltz (an SF company commander) who had to divert his SFODAs from hitting Taliban targets to join the search for Bergdahl. Read "My Ongoing Personal Conflict With Serial's Bergdahl Coverage", Task & Purpose, January 7, 2016.

Afghan War News Snippets

CRS Report on Afghanistan. Kenneth Katzman of the Congressional Research Service (CRS) writes a periodic report on the situation in Afghanistan entitled Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy, dated December 22, 2015. 80 pages.
www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=789303

Danish War Film. A fictional war film starring Danish actors and military personnel fighting in Afghanistan will soon (hopefully) be hitting the theaters. Read more in "This is the fictional war film which features real life soldiers", BBC Newsbeat, January 4, 2016.

The Wakhan Front - Move Trailer. A new move about Afghanistan is out. Watch the trailer on YouTube.com. www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBn9hCg-OSw

Embassy Employees & Dari. A short video posted on YouTube.com by the U.S. Embassy Kabul shows some of its staff demonstrating their language skills. (2 mins).

Internal Taliban Squabbling. It appears that Mullah Mansoor is cleaning house of the Taliban senior leadership. Two senior members (Razzaq and Rehmani) were expelled from the leadership council for refusing to accept Mansoor as the organizations leader. (Pajhwok Afghan News, Jan 7, 2016).

MSF Worker Chats on Helmand Province. An Australian pediatric nurse talks about his experience working in Helmand province from Dec 2014 to Sep 2015 for Doctors Without Borders. Seems we didn't bomb his hospital while he was there - so that's a good thing! Read "Afghanistan: Nine Months Fighting Malnutrition in Helmand Province", Medecins Sans Frontiers, January 7, 2016.

Upcoming Rotational Deployments to Afghanistan. The Department of the Army announced that 2nd BCT, 101st Abn Div will deploy in support of Operation Inherent Resolve. Elements of the 10th Mountain will deploy to Afghanistan in support of Operation Freedom's Sentinel. See "DA Announces Rotational Deployments", Army.mil, January 8, 2016.

Afghan Astronomy in a War Zone. Looking through a telescope in the dead of night in a field can attract a lot of attention. Especially if your telescope looks a lot like a rocket launcher. Read more in "Amateur Afghan Astronomy is Risky Business", Newsweek, January 2016.

More HMMWVs and MSF Vehicles. The Afghan armed forces will be receiving over 100 HMMWVs (M1151 Enhanced Armament Carrier) and 55 Mobile Strike Force vehicles over the next several weeks. Now if we can only get the ANDSF to repair and maintain the vehicles they have we would be accomplishing something. (Khaama Press, Jan 7, 2016).

Warriors, Spartans, and Vikings. One commentator looks at the rise in popularity the fighters from Greece, Rome, and the Norse lands in "Our odd 'Valhalla' obsession", Carrying the Gun, January 7, 2016. Being of Swedish descent on both sides of my family I don't find it odd at all. Hmmm . . .

Russia Playing both Sides? Russia is reportedly going to provide 10,000 AKs to the Afghan military (along with ammo) and is currently in talks to provide attack helicopters to the Afghan Air Force. At the same time they are indicating that (through spokes-persons) that they may exchange intel with the Taliban about the presence of ISIS in Afghanistan. Hmmmm. Read more in "Russia Plays Both Sides in the Afghan Conflict", Gandhara Blog, January 5, 2016.

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Sunday, January 3, 2016

Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter - Jan 3, 2016

Welcome to the Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter. Articles are posted every Sunday morning (5:00 am EST) or early afternoon Kabul time. In addition, all blog posts are sent out via an email newsletter on Sunday am. We welcome comments, ideas for stories, contributions, and guest writers! Visit our website at www.afghanwarnews.info and follow us on Twitter at @AfghanWarBlog.

Playing Catch Up

Due to an additional work load, travel schedule, and the holidays I was unable to send out the weekly newsletter the past two weeks. This one catches us all up from mid-December to now. Having said that - the newsletter is a bit longer than usual and contains some news that may be dated to some folks reading this weeks newsletter.