Afghan War Blog

Sunday, July 9, 2017

Afghan War News Snippets

Keep Up on the News About Afghanistan!

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Sunday, July 2, 2017

Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter - 2 July 2017

Welcome to the Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter. Articles are posted online on the blog and sent out via email newsletter on Sunday morning. We welcome comments, ideas for stories, contributions, and guest writers! Visit our website at www.afghanwarnews.info, follow us on Twitter at @AfghanWarBlog, and on LinkedIn at www.linkedin.com/in/afghan-war-news.

Taliban Update

Taliban Ideology. The Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) is highly respected for its detailed reporting on the situation in Afghanistan. The AAN has released a report entitled Ideology in the Afghan Taliban, dated 29 June 2017. The report states that the Taleban's ideology has transformed over the past two decades. While the movement started out as a 'traditionalist' Islam - it has now moved closer to forms of political Islam espoused in the Arab world. The 45-page report can be read online or downloaded.
www.afghanistan-analysts.org/publication/aan-papers/ideology-in-the-afghan-taliban-a-new-aan-report/

Taliban vs IS-K in Nuristan. The remote province of Nuristan in eastern Afghanistan is the stage for fighting between the Islamic State - Khorasan and Taliban elements. See "Afghan Governor Says Taliban Fighting IS in Eastern Province", Gandhara, June 28, 2017.

NATO Troop Increase for Afghanistan

NATO to Up Troop Levels. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has stated during a recent news conference that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will increase its troop levels for the 'train, advise, and assist' mission in Afghanistan. The U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis has completed a trip to Europe where he consulted with NATO allies on the requirement for more advisors in Afghanistan. Naturally, the Europeans will be dong the "Train, Advise, and Assist" mission and will not be involved in any combat role. Although . . . it is quite possible some of its special operations forces (SOF) units could get a little close to the frontlines. Read "NATO agrees on Afghanistan troop increase", Stars & Stripes, June 29, 2017. See also "European allies and Washington tiptoe around new troops for 'Resolute Support'", Jane's 360, June 30, 2017.

Commentary

Peace with Honor? Lawrence Freedman, a professor of war studies at King's College London, provides his perspective of victory and defeat in Afghanistan. He believes that America's ". . . definition of peace needs to be defined down." Read "Can There Be Peace With Honor in Afghanistan?", Foreign Policy, June 26, 2017.

Importance of Educating Afghanistan's Youth. Rahmatullah Arman writes that widespread illiteracy undercuts security and development in "Educating Afghanistan's Youth Is the Only True Solution to Terrorism", Defense One, June 27, 2017.

9 Priorities for Peace. A recently held workshop brought together 23 experts from the Afghan government, media, and other organizations to explore the challenges, priorities, and opportunities for building peace in Afghanistan. Read the report entitled "Nine Priorities for Peace in Afghanistan", Conciliation Resources, June 2017.

Afghan Conflict Options - Losing or Not Losing. James Dobbins, a former Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, comments on the options for the new administration in "Trump's Options for Afghanistan: Losing or Not Losing", RAND Corporation, June 23, 2017.

U.S. Military Can't Fix Mess Alone. James Cunningham, a former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, Israel, and the United Nations - and currently a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council - weighs in on the Afghan problem. "There is no guarantee that America can 'win' in Afghanistan, but it is quite clear that it can lose". read "I Was U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan. The Military Can't Fix This Mess Alone", The National Interest, June 29, 2017.

Avoiding Perpetual War in Afghanistan. Daniel L. Davis, a retired U.S. Army officer, provides his thoughts on how to avoid 'the long stay' in Afghanistan in "A New Afghanistan Strategy Must Avoid Perpetual War", The National Interest, June 28, 2017.

Haidari on Peace in Afghanistan. The Director-General of Policy & Strategy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan has wrote an opinion peace outlining the path to peace in Afghanistan. He enumerates four key points to achieve Afghan stability. Read "For Peace in Afghanistan, Listen to Afghans", The Diplomat, June 28, 2017.

Security News 20170702

Afghan Special Services Force (ASSF) Soldier

Afghan Special Security Force (ASSF) - Photo by Lt Cmdr Kathryn Gray, RS HQs, June 26, 2017

Helmand Leadership Change. The police chief of Helmand province - General Kentooz - was removed after being in the job for a year. He was previously removed as head of the major crime task force at the Ministry of Interior (MoI). Many of the senior leaders of the MoI and MoD who are removed for cause (corruption, ineffectiveness, ineptness, etc.) are simply moved on to other positions until the Resolute Support HQs folks monitoring (supposedly) Afghan leadership catch on. Kentooz will, once again, resurface someplace else within the security ministries. The commander of the 215th ANA Corps was removed about a year ago - wonder where he is now working?

Advisor Training in Kabul. The Security Force Assistance (SFA) framework utilized by Resolute Support Headquarters to conduct the 'Train, Advise, and Assist' mission in Afghanistan is complicated and comprehensive. Those officers and NCOs who are designated to serve in key or high-level advisor roles may find themselves undergoing "Key Leader Training" at Camp RS prior to their Afghan deployment. This four-day training event ensures they are knowledgeable of the Afghan training mission. Read more in "Resolute Support trains its people, improving advisor training", DVIDS, June 26, 2017.

A Wasteful War. The U.S. has spent millions and millions of dollars supporting a corrupt government and inept military in Afghanistan. There seems to be no end to the wasteful practices of the U.S. military and the corruption of the Afghan government and its security institutions. Read more in "War and waste: Cautionary tales as U.S. ponders Afghan boost", PBS Newshour, June 25, 2017.

RS Cdr Visits AAF. General John Nicholson, commander of Resolute Support, visited facilities of the Afghan Air Force. (DVIDS, June 23, 2017).

NATO to Support ANDSF 4-Year Roadmap. The MoD is quite happy with NATO's decision to send more advisors to Afghanistan. It seems NATO is firmly behind (if not the author?) of the MoD's 4-year Roadmap to professionalize the ANA. Some big changes in store. The Afghan Air Force will increase in size, the Afghan National Army Special Operations Command will double in size, and the Afghan National Civil Order Police (ANCOP) will be transferred from the MoI to the MoD. Read "NATO's Support Crucial for MoD's Four-Year Plan: Waziri", Tolo News, July 1, 2017.

ALP Volunteers. Apparently working in the Afghan Local Police (ALP) is a good deal. In late June more than 700 Afghan citizens in Nangarhar attempted to join the police unit but there were not quite that many positions available. Some of those turned away from the ALP were picked up for service in an 'ad hoc' private militia force funded by the National Directorate of Security (NDS). Read more in "Resounding Afghan Pride in Nangarhar", DVIDS, June 27, 2017.

Failure of ANDSF. The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces are not quite up to the job of defeating the Taliban and other insurgents. In fact, the Afghan government controls less territory in 2017 than it did in 2016 - currently estimated at 60%. Read more in "Decoding Afghan Security Forces' Failures", The Diplomat, June 23, 2017.

Report: Lessons Learned from Stabilization Initiatives in Afghanistan. RAND Corporation, 2017. 44-page document provides a systematic review of existing research.
www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR1191.html

UK's SAS and SBS to Afghanistan. A recent news report indicates the the UK is uplifting its total number of personnel assigned to Kabul and elsewhere in Afghanistan. Read "SAS and SBS sent to help Afghan Army", The Times, June 29, 2017.

Gen Dunford Visits Afghanistan. The U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman, General Joe Dunford, made an unannounced visit to discuss the future strategy for Afghanistan and the game plan for a likely U.S. troop increase. (Gandhara, June 26, 2017).

Afghan War News Snippets

More Visas for Interpreters. A U.S. Senate committee has approved 4,000 more Visas for Afghans who worked for the U.S. military as interpreters or support staff. The Afghan Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) program is designed to help Afghans who assisted the U.S. in the Afghan conflict to immigrate to the United States. See "U.S. Senate Committee Approves 4,000 More Special Visas for Afghans", Gandhara, June 29, 2017.

Key Leader Training for RS HQs Advisors. The Resolute Support Headquarters conducts a 4-day training course for those military personnel who are assigned to be advisors to the MoD or MoI. One day the 'newcomer's briefing day' - learning the aspects of living and working in Afghanistan on Camp RS in Kabul. A second day is Guardian Angel training - ensuring that you are aware of and know how to respond to an insider threat or green-on-blue incident. Two days is spent on learning how RS HQs conducts its Security Force Assistance (SFA) mission and how the RS HQs staff works within the 8 Essential Functions framework. Read more in "Resolute Support trains its people, improving advisor training", U.S. Central Command, June 26, 2017.

Logistics Advising in Afghanistan. The current coalition mission in Afghanistan is to train, advise, and assist (TAA) the Afghan police and military. From a logistics standpoint, creating a self-sustaining afghan military is an important step forward to ensure the Afghans can independently secure their borders and provide for internal security. A logistics advisor, to be effective, must understand that the Western military logistics framework and culture is not a good fit for Afghanistan's military or culture. Read more in "Moving forward with logistics advising in Afghanistan", Army.mil, May 1, 2017.

Report: Islamic State in Afghanistan. Abdul Basit has penned a 21-page article entitled "IS Penetration in Afghanistan-Pakistan: Assessment, Impact and Implications", Perspectives on Terrorism, Volume 11, No 3, June 2017. IS is now competing with al-Qaeda and the Taliban over recruitment, resources, and the loyalties of local militant groups. This has complicated the militant landscape, contributed to the Sunni-Shia conflict, and adds complexity to the effort of the Afghan government and its coalition partners.

Air Force Cross Awarded. An airman was awarded the Air Force Cross for heroism during the 2002 Operation Anaconda that took place in the Takur Gar area of Afghanistan. TSgt Keary Miller provided critical medical care to 10 wounded U.S. service members under dangerous conditions. Read more in "Survival on Takur Gar", Air Force Magazine, August 2017.

Bowe Bergdahl Trial Update. Bergdahl's long, drawn-out trial is proceeding ahead. A military judge made a key ruling saying that prosecutors can try the soldier on the charge of endangering his comrades by walking off his post in Afghanistan in 2009. See "Bowe Bergdahl case: Judge lets rare misbehavior charge proceed", Army Times, June 30, 2107.

BBC Podcast on Silk Road. This 40-minute long podcast is entitled "Silk Routes: Two Thousand Years of Trading". The economic highway from China, across Central Asia and Afghanistan, to Iran.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p056srhv

China's Silk Road in Afghanistan is a Bumpy Ride. The Chinese have made some important steps forward in providing investments in some key sectors of the Afghan - most notable is the mining sector. However, the return on investment is disappointing due to the deteriorating security situation. Read more in "Difficult Trek on Silk Road in Afghanistan", Asia Sentinel, June 29, 2017.

Afghans Fighting for Assad in Syria. Iran, over the past several years, has pressed into service citizens of Afghanistan to fight for the Assad regime in Syria. There are an estimated 8,000 to 12,000 Afghans fighting in the Syrian conflict. Read "How Iran Recruited Afghan Refugees to Fight Assad's War", The New York Times, June 30, 2017.

General Dunford Visits Afghanistan. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs (and former ISAF commander) visited Kabul and Helmand province to gain ground truth on the Afghan conflict. See "Dunford arrives in Afghanistan as Marines work to rekindle relations in Helmand", Military Times, June 26,2017.

Video of Guardian Angel Training. Australian troops in Afghanistan are conducting the train, advise, and assist mission. This entails advisors and trainers visiting Afghan police and Army installations and garrisons. With the constant threat of insurgent attacks as well as the insider threat the need exists for a force protection element to accompany the advisors on their missions. Watch a short video about Australian soldiers assigned the "Guardian Angel" task of keeping their fellow Aussie soldiers safe in Guardian Angels Protecting Australian Soldiers in Afghanistan, Perth Now, June 27, 2017.

Keep Up to Date on Afghan News!

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter - 20170625

DoD 1225 Report on Afghanistan - June 2017

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has published its bi-annual report on the situation in Afghanistan. The U.S. Congress requires the DoD to submit a report twice a year on how things are going in the 16-year long conflict. The report is entitled Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan. The current 102-page report was published in June 2017.

Topics include "Strategy and Objectives", "Threat Assessment", "Overview of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces", "Ministry of Defense and Afghan National Army", "Ministry of Interior and Afghan National Police", "Financing the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces", "Indicators of Effectiveness for the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Interior", and "Acronyms".

www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/Enhancing-Security-and-Stability-in-Afghanistan-June-2017.pdf

Building Partner Capacity within the Afghan Security Ministries

MG Richard Kaiser, cdr CSTC-A, meets with Acting Minister of MoD
Photo credit: RS HQs, May 2017

The U.S. and NATO have embraced the concept of training up indigenous forces to achieve objectives and goals in line with their strategic, national, or organizational interests. Essentially this means conducting "Train, Advise, and Assist" (TAA) missions in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere so that host nations (using local or indigenous forces) can defeat ISIS, al Qaeda, the Taliban, or other adversaries on the battlefield. The United States refers to this mission set as Building Partner Capacity or BPC.

For the past 16 years the United States, NATO, and other partner nations have been slowly developing, training, equipping, and fielding the Afghan National Defense Security Forces (ANDSF) and the Afghan Security Institutions (ASI). Although this effort has made some progress, it has not been a resounding success. While the quantity is there (the end strength according to personnel rosters) the quality is lacking - except in the Afghan Special Security Forces (ASSF).

Currently the Resolute Support HQs based in Kabul is conducting the Train, Advise, and Assist mission on three levels. A major advisory effort is taking place at the security ministries - the Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Ministry of Interior (MoI). There are advisors conducting TAA at the regional ANA Corps level. The Afghan Air Force and Afghan SOF are receiving TAA at the tactical level.

A recently published paper in Joint Force Quarterly examines one critical component of the Building Partner Capacity mission set. It takes a close look at the building of institutional capacity in host-nation ministries (Afghanistan is presented as an example). The authors then offer a scientifically and historically sound methodology for military advisors working at the ministerial level. The aim of the paper is to show the way military leaders and staff can improve how they plan and execute the Train, Advise, and Sssist missions - and, in addition, how we can rethink the role of the military advisor.

You can read or download the 8-page paper below:

"Learning to Fish in Murky Waters: The Missing Link in Capacity-Building", Joint Force Quarterly 86, 3rd Quarter, July 2017.
http://ndupress.ndu.edu/JFQ/Joint-Force-Quarterly-86/Article/1223974/learning-to-fish-in-murky-waters-the-missing-link-in-capacity-building/

Breakaway Taliban Faction Aided by NDS

A breakaway Taliban faction is being helped by the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS). The NDS is Afghanistan's version of the U.S. FBI and CIA combined. The faction supported by the NDS and the main stream Taliban have recently clashed causing casualties on both sides. Infighting among Taliban factions is not a new occurrence; however, the NDS provided support to a Taliban faction is not a commonplace event. In recent days the NDS has been supporting the 'Renouncers' - with weapons, safe passage, intelligence support, and medical support. This seems to happen most in Helmand province which the Afghan government has great difficulty in controlling. Read more in a news report entitled "Afghan Government Quietly Aids Breakaway Taliban Faction", The New York Times, June 19, 2017.

Commentary on Afghanistan

Petraeus on Afghanistan. General (Ret) David Petraeus was interviewed by Judy Woodruff on PBS Newshour about the current situation in Afghanistan and possible future strategy. He says that an increase of 3K to 5K troops is an important step to take. He believes the Department of Defense along with other agencies will soon roll out a 'new' strategy that will stop the decline of security in Afghanistan. Read more in "Petraeus: We went to Afghanistan for a reason; and we need to stay", PBS Newshour, June 16,2017.

Pakistan's Anxieties? C. Christine Fair once again identifies Pakistan as the major problem facing Afghanistan in solving its security issues in "Pakistan's Anxieties Are Incurable, So Stop Trying to Cure Them", War on the Rocks, June 21, 2017.

An Alternative Option to Surging Troops. Daniel L. Davis, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities, presents his opinion on the expected 'mini-surge' of 3-5K additional troops to Afghanistan. Instead of more troops the U.S. should put pressure on Kabul to make good progress in reducing corruption and engage in a regional diplomatic effort to reduce the Pakistan support to the insurgency. Read his article "Instead of sending more soldiers to Afghanistan, Trump should do this", Washington Examiner, June 21, 2017.

US Strategy Needs China's Support. The new U.S. administration will soon roll out its 'Afghan strategy'; however, it faces a difficult task of getting Pakistan and Afghanistan talking again. China can help. Daud Khattak writes "Whatever the New US Strategy in Afghanistan, It Can't Succeed Without China", The Diplomat, June 21, 2017.

Anthony Cordesman on Afghanistan. Cordesman - of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) - offers his perspective and some recommendations about the stability and security of Afghanistan in "One-Size-Fits-All Approach Fails in Afghanistan", The Cipher Brief, June 23, 2017.

U.S. Media Absent on Afghanistan. Pete Metzger, a former Marine officer, feels that the U.S. media is pre-ocuppied with news about Russia and they not covering the Afghan conflict properly in "The Media Miss the Mark on Afghanistan", National Review, June 23, 2017.

Trump's Plan for Afghanistan - a Break from the Past Admin. Peter Bergen, a CNN national security analyst, comments on the new plan for Afghanistan in "Trump's emerging plan for Afghanistan breaks with Obama approach", CNN, June 21, 2017.

Confronting Pakistan. Javid Ahmad writes that the Trump administration should consider new pressure points that increase the pain for Pakistan in "America Must Confront Pakistan's Support of Afghan-Based Terrorism", The National Interest, June 20, 2017.

What is Success? Luke Coffey, of The Heritage Foundation, says that ". . . we need to start measuring success by achievements on the ground and not by unrealistic expectations". Thus far, achievements on the ground have been fleeting. Read more in "What Does America Consider Success in Afghanistan", June 2, 2017.

Security News

Attack at Bagram Gates. Eight Afghan security guards were killed and two wounded at the gates of Bagram Airfield by a Taliban attack on Monday night, June 19, 2017.

Roadside Bomb in Helmand. A roadside landmine on the Lashkargah - Kandahar highway killed 6 policemen on Tuesday, June 20, 2107.

ISIS in Afghanistan - Still Big Problem. Despite the efforts of the U.S. and Afghan forces to defeat the Islamic State - Khorasan group in eastern Afghanistan the insurgent group remains as a big problem. Read "Pentagon: Islamic State Problem Not Getting Better in Afghanistan", Voice of America, June 22, 2017.

Tora Bora Mountains - Changing Hands. A week ago the Islamic State - Khorasan moved its troops into the mountains along the Afghan - Pakistan border area in southern Nangarhar province. In that process they fought and displaced Taliban groups who fled elsewhere. The Afghan government was quick to respond by sending in the ANA. So in about two weeks the region went from Taliban control, to IS-K control, to (supposedly) Afghan government control. It will be interesting to see who will end up owning the ground once the news cycle has shifted its spotlight. See "Afghan Forces Recapture Tora Bora Hideout From IS", Radio Free Europe, June 21, 2017.

Ramazan and the Fight for Kunduz. The fighting continues even during Ramazan; especially in Kunduz. Read "Ramadan on the Afghan frontline: after heavy fighting, hunger and boredom", The Guardian, June 22, 2017.

Nicholson Tours AAF. General Nicholson conducted a tour of some Afghan Air Force (AAF) facilities, looked over some AAF aircraft, met some AAF personnel and pronounced that great progress has been made. Read a press release by Resolute Support HQs that puts a warm glow in your heart about how well our U.S. taxpayers money is being spent. (RS HQs, June 22, 2017).

UN: Security Getting Worse in Afghanistan. A new quarterly report by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) states that the security situation is getting worse. See "Security Situation Worsening in Afghanistan, UN, Pentagon Warn", Radio Free Europe, June 22, 2017. You can read UNAMA's 14-page report on the UNAMA website.

ANA's Camouflage Uniforms. So it seems that the Combined Security Transition Command - Afghanistan (CSTC-A) is part of the reason the U.S. is spending more for ANA uniforms than needed. It appears, according to a report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) that CSTC-A went with a proprietary camouflage pattern rather than a camouflage pattern that the U.S. government already owned. This increased the costs per uniform significantly; which means U.S. taxpayers spent @28 million more than necessary for ANA uniforms. View an interactive report by SIGAR at https://sigar.mil/interactive-reports/ana-uniform-procurement/index.html. Read the 19-page document.

New Afghan Govt Security Plan. The Afghan's have developed a new approach to achieving stability in the country. It has four key elements - improve leadership, create unity of effort, diminish corruption, and increase the size of Afghan special operations forces. Read more in "Pentagon: Afghanistan developing new plan vs. Taliban", Stars & Stripes, June 20, 2017.

Peace Talks - But no Women at Table. Heather Barr, a senior researcher with Human Rights Watch, notes that there was very little participation by Afghan women in the latest reconciliation meetings - called the "Kabul Process". Read more in "Women Excluded Again from Afghanistan's Peace Talks", Human Rights Watch, June 6, 2017.

CSTC-A Helps with Blood Bank. A recent truck bomb in Kabul that claimed up to 150 lives and wounded over 300 Afghans significantly depleted the stores of the Kabul blood bank. Read "CSTC-A resupplies life to Afghan Central Blood Bank in Kabul", RS HQs, June 22, 2017.

Car Bomb in Lashkargah. At least 29 people were killed and over 50 others wounded in a car bomb blast in Helmand province on Thursday, June 22, 2017 Some of those killed and injured were ANA soldiers in line to receive pay at the New Kabul Bank Branch in Lashkargah. This is the third time since 2014 that this bank has been attacked while soldiers were lined up to collect pay. Hmmm - lesson observed; not learned. (Tolo News).

Governance News

AREU Report. The Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU) has published a new report entitled Land Governance Assessment Framework (LGAF) - Afghanistan. It is 242-pages long published in June 2017. The LGAF was developed by the World Bank and other organizations to enhance the activities of the institutions that work on issues relating to the country's good land governance.
https://areu.org.af/archives/publication/1608

AREU Report. The Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU) has published a new report entitled Subnational Governance in Afghanistan. This 68-page report was published in July 2017 and covers the state of affairs in Afghanistan and the future of district and village representation.
www.refworld.org/docid/5948e86e4.html

Election Dates Announced. The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has announced the dates for parliamentary and district council elections. The date is set for July 7, 2018. Read more in "IEC Announces Election Date: July Next Year", Tolo News, June 23, 2017.

Videos on Afghanistan

UN Security Council Debate on Afghanistan. Listen and watch a video of the Afghan Ambassador to the United Nations addressing the United Nations Security Council on the situation in Afghanistan. Posted by "UNAfghanistan" on YouTube.com, June 21, 2017.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ux6iZPV7evU

Afghan War News Snippets

Afghan Interpreter Has New Life in U.S. An Afghan who worked for the U.S. military as an interpreter finds that life in the United States can be sometimes difficult. See "Afghan Refugee Makes Tough Transition to US", Voice of America, June 21, 2017.

RS Cdr Visits Command School. General John Nicholson, Resolute Support Mission commander, recently visited the Afghan National Army's new Command School on June 19, 2017. Read "General Nicholson brings message of unity to ANA New Commando School", DVIDS, June 20, 2017.

Special Rep for Afg-Pak Eliminated. The Special Representative for Pakistan and Afghanistan office at the U.S. State Department is being disbanded. The functions of that office will be assumed by the office handling Central and South Asian Affairs. Read more in a news report by the Washington Post, June 22, 2017.

Taliban Won't Stop Fighting Until . . . The Taliban have said that they will continue to fight until the last foreign troops depart Afghanistan. (Stars and Stripes, June 23, 2017).

Afghan Silk Road. China's attempt to include Afghanistan and Pakistan in its economic sphere of influence depends in part on the stabilization of Afghanistan and also Pakistan. Read more in "Fear and loathing on the Afghan Silk Road", Asia Times, June 21, 2017.

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Sunday, June 18, 2017

Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter - 20170618

Insider Attack Wounds Seven U.S. Soldiers - June 17th

An insider attack occurred on Saturday, June 17, 2017 on Camp Shaheen in northern Afghanistan. An Afghan soldier wounded seven U.S. service members - reportedly using an RPG. He is reported to have been killed during the incident. Resolute Support HQs released information about the attack on Twitter and in a news release stating that "Seven U.S. service members wounded, evacuated for treatment. Insider attack Camp Shaheen, Mazar-e Sharif under investigation."

Camp Shaheen is the headquarters base for the 209th Afghan National Army Corps with responsibility for all of northern Afghanistan. It is located about 20 minutes drive directly to the west of Mazar-e Sharif - one of the largest cities in northern Afghanistan. Train, Advise, and Assist Command - North, headed up by the Germans and staffed by member nations from NATO, is located to the east of Mazar-e Sharif by about a 10 minute drive on Camp Marmal. Many of the advisors working with the ANA travel one to several times a week between Camp Marmal and Camp Shaheen on day trips - using either ground convoy or a short helicopter flight.

This was the second insider attack by an Afghan soldier in a week. 2012 was the worst year for insider attacks with over 60 NATO members killed in 'green on blue' incidents in Afghanistan. Learn more about insider attacks in Afghanistan.

Three Soldiers from 101st Abn Div KIA - June 10th

On June 10, 2017 three Soldiers of the 101st Airborne Division were killed by small arms fire in Peka Valley, Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The casualties were identified in a press release by the Department of Defense posted on June 12, 2017.

www.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Article/1210522/dod-identifies-army-casualties/source/GovDelivery/

Troop Level Increase in Afghanistan

President Trump provided the authority to Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis to determine the troop levels for the U.S. presence in Afghanistan. Over the past few months we have seen press reports and testimony before Congress indicating that the military chain of command (Resolute Support, CENTCOM, etc.) had recommended an increase of 3-5 thousand U.S. troops. It appears that SECDEF Mattis will honor that request and he is expected to announce troop movements at some point next week. Along with this U.S. troop increase there is an expectation that NATO and other partner coalition nations will increase their level of troop deployments as well. Many countries (United Kingdom, Germany, etc.) have already announced their intention to increase their troop levels.

What Will These Troops Do? The U.S. has two missions in Afghanistan. One is the counterterrorism (CT) mission and the other is the "Train, Advise, and Assist" (TAA) mission. A smaller portion of the 4K increase will very likely enhance the CT mission in Afghanistan. The greater portion of the 4K increase will go to the TAA mission. The planners at Resolute Support headquarters in Kabul very likely have plans already in place for the increased level of troops. A reading of DoD statements and open source media could lead one to conclude that some advisors will be employed at the ministry and institutional level in the Kabul area while others will go out to the Train, Advise and Assist Commands (TAACs) to work with the ANA Corps and regional Police Zone HQs.

Advisors at Tactical Level? Some advisors are already working at the tactical level - in most cases U.S. SOF and aviation advisors. In addition, there are some advisors who deploy to ANA brigade level on a periodic basis as part of an Expeditionary Advisory Package (EAP).

General Nicholson, the commander of the Resolute Support Mission, has indicated that many of the soon-to-arrive advisors will find themselves working at the tactical level - at brigade and possibly kandak (battalion) level as well. The advisor platform at Task Force Southwest and Task Force Southeast are understaffed and will likely be augmented. It is important to note that not all newly assigned personnel will be advisors - think of the tooth to tail ratio. Each additional advisor needs logistical, medical, intelligence, transportation, force protection, and life support. So a good proportion of the 4K that go to the TAA mission will be supporting the advisors.

Lack of a Strategic Plan? There are numerous reports in the media from critics and observers that cast doubt on the utility of more troops if a strategic plan is not developed and implemented for Afghanistan. SECDEF Mattis has said that this is in the works and we should learn more in mid-July. The strategic plan very likely will see more advisors serving at the tactical level assisting with planning and coordinating operations as well as providing U.S. enablers (ISR, air support, fire support, etc.). Hopefully this strategic plan will take into account the regional actors bordering Afghanistan, Pakistan's support of some insurgent groups and the sanctuaries within Pakistan, corruption in the Afghan government and security forces, the dysfunction of the National Unity Government (NUG), and the inept, ineffective, and corrupt leadership at all levels within the MoI, MoD, and ANDSF.

4-Year ANDSF Roadmap. The Afghan government does have a strategic plan in place and the U.S. is very likely going to support this plan as best it can. The Afghans have rolled out their 4-year ANDSF Roadmap which lays out their plan for professionalizing the Afghan military and police. This includes doubling the size of the Afghan Special Security Forces (ASSF), increasing the capability of the Afghan Air Force (AAF), reducing corruption, improving leadership, and improving training. The goal is to have the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) achieve the ability - at the end of the four years- to improve the security situation in Afghanistan with the end result of a political solution to the conflict with the insurgents. Time will tell.

News Reports, Editorials, Analysis, and Commentary on Troop Increase.

June 16, 2017. "Gen. Keane: 10,000 to 20,000 additional troops needed in Afghanistan", Fox News. General Keane says 4,000 troop increase is not enough; probably need 10-20K to have a decisive difference.

June 16, 2017. "For Peace in Afghanistan, Talk to Pakistan", New York Times.

June 16,2017. "Mr. Trump, Afghanistan Is Your War Now", New York Times editorial.

June 15, 2017. "The New, Old War in Afghanistan", by Paul McLeary, Foreign Policy.

June 15, 2017. "Mattis's Afghanistan War Plan: Be Patient, Convince Everyone", by Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, Defense One.

Commentary

U.S. Needs to work with Regional Powers for Afghan Peace. Moeed Yusuf believes that American officials need to keep in the forefront of their thinking the goal of obtaining peace in Afghanistan where the country does not harbor or support terrorism. Read "An Afghan Settlement Will Require America to Work with Russia, Iran and Pakistan", The National Interest, June 11, 2017.

Failing Afghan Strategy of Trump Administration. Tom Rogan reports on a lack of an Afghan strategy within the current White House. He provides three recommendations for the Trump admin. Read more in "The Trump administration's (lack of) strategy for Afghanistan is failing", Washington Examiner, June 14, 2017.

Afghans Need More Aircraft. Gary Anderson, who spent time in a remote province of Afghanistan as a civilian advisor, says that Afghanistan needs more helicopters so it can move troops, conduct MEDEVACs, and resupply its far-flung outposts. Read "What the Afghan Army Needs is an Adequate Air Force", The Washington Times, June 8, 2017.

Review of Brad Pitt's 'War Machine'. Netflix is airing a movie about the Afghan conflict. In the movie General Stanley McChrystal is played by actor Brad Pitt. The reaction to the movie by veterans of the Afghan conflict is varied. Some see some redeeming segments while others see it as Hollywood as usual. Whitney Kassel, a foreign policy analyst, provides her take on the movie in "Screw Brad Pitt and the 'War Machine' He Rode in on", Foreign Policy, June 13, 2017.

Security News

ANA Soldiers from 215th Corps practice markmanship fundamentals
(photo by Sgt. Lucas Hopkins, RS HQs, 4 June 2017)

CIVCAS Allegations. There were reports of civilian casualties caused by U.S. forces in Nangarhar province on June 12, 2017. Provincial officials say that three civilians were killed. USFOR-A released a statement that confirmed

". . . a convoy with U.S. and Afghan personnel was struck by a roadside bomb and attacked with small arms fire in Nangarhar Province. The convoy returned fire in self-defense and there were no U.S. casualties. We have not received any official allegations of civilian casualties. We take civilian casualties very seriously and all allegations are thoroughly investigated. The incident is under investigation and more information will be released as appropriate."

Kabul Bombing Update. The Taliban's second in command and head of the Haqqani Netwokr has denied any responsibility for the recent Kabul city bombing that killed over 150 people - most of them Afghan civilians. See "Taliban's No. 2 denies role in Kabul bombing", Military Times, June 12, 2017.

Kandahar Governor's Compound Attack. It appears, according to the National Directorate of Security (NDS), that the chef at the guesthouse was complicit in the bombing the wounded the governor and killed the UAE ambassador (as well as several others). Three suspects, believed to be in Quetta, Pakistan (of course) have been named. The NDS has asked Pakistan to hand over the three suspects. (Gandhara, June 16, 2017).

Taliban Factions Duking It Out in Helmand. News reports say that two factions of the Taliban are engaged in a bit of infighting in Gereshk district, Helmand province. See "Suicide attack on Taliban splinter group leaves several dead in Helmand", Khaama Press, June 14, 2017.

Haqqani Network Commander Killed in Drone Strike. A U.S. drone has reportedly killed a senior commander for the Haqqani Network in northwest Pakistan on June 13th. Read a news report by FDD's Long War Journal, June 14, 2017.

Director of Media for ISIS-K Killed. US Forces Afghanistan announced that a senior director of media production for the Islamic State's Wilayay Khorasan (ISIS-K) was killed in an airstrike in Achin district, Nangarhar province on June 3rd. (FDD's Long War Journal, June 17, 2017).

IS-K dislodges Taliban in Tora Bora. Islamic State - Khorasan Province (ISKP) have gone on the offensive against the Taliban in southern Nangarhar province in the area of the Tora Bora mountains. Read more in "ISIS Captures Tora Bora, Once Bin Laden's Afghan Fortress", The New York Times, June 14, 2017.

Troop Increase Coming? President Trump is giving the Pentagon the ability to determine the troop level for Afghanistan. This could mean an increase of up to 5 K over the next several months. Most would be for advisory missions - both advisors and the folks needed to support the advisors. Read more in an article by The Washington Post, June 13, 2017. See also an article posted by Bloomberg Politics, June 14, 2017. Some news reports say that 4,000 is the magic number. Time will tell.

DoD Statement on Troop Levels. The Defense Department has released a statement saying that the decision for troop levels resides with the Secretary of Defense and is part of a broader strategy for Afghanistan that is currently evolving. See "Statement by Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis on Afghanistan Troop Levels", DoD, June 14, 2017.

Regional Approach by U.S. The Defense Secretary for the United States says that the U.S. will be reassessing its strategy for Afghanistan and will be taking a regional approach to solving the country's long-running war. (Gandara, June 13, 2017).

No Military Solution. The United Nations Secretary General recently visited Afghanistan. During his visit he said there is no military solution to the conflict in Afghanistan. Read a news report by Reuters, June 13, 2017.

U.S. Not Winning. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis testified before the U.S. Congress on Tuesday, June 13th and presented some dismal news about the war in Afghanistan. He said there is an urgent need for a strategic review - which should be completed in mid-July. See "U.S. not winning in Afghanistan, Defense Secretary tells Congress", Reuters, June 14, 2017.

Task Force Southwest Update. The Marines returned to Helmand province recently and are conducting the train, advise, and assist mission for the 215th ANA Corps and 505th Police Zone. Read an update on their activities in "Task Force Southwest Supports Afghan Forces' Operations", Department of Defense, June 15, 2017.

Two NATO Allies Confer on Afghanistan.The Georgian Defence Minister visited his counterpart in Germany to discuss troop deployments to Afghanistan. Georgia has over 900 soldiers deployed to Afghanistan and 120 of them are under German command at Train, Advise, and Assist Command - North (TAAC-North) at Camp Marmal near Mezar-i Sharif. "Germany and Georgia Co-operate in Afghanistan", Jane's 360, June 16, 2017.

Police Trainers from Canada? One of the biggest contributors of troops to the Afghan conflict was Canada. The country spent lots of money and deploy a large number of troops over the years - especially in southern Afghanistan. NATO has now requested that Canada send some police trainers to Afghanistan. (CBC News, June 12, 2017).

Governance News

NUG in Disarray. The National Unity Government (NUG) is proving to be very ineffective. There is a lot of conflict between the camps of President Ghani and CEO Abdullah. in addition, there is a significant amount of infighting within each camp. Factors such as patronage, corruption, ethnic sectarianism, and a diverse array of interests and political parties add to the destabilization of the Afghan government at the national level, the provincial level, and down to the district level. In addition, the instability of the Afghan government has had an extremely adverse effect on the security ministries and security forces. The outlook appears bleak with no noticeable signs of improvement on the horizon.

Re-Upping the Quadrilateral Coordination Group. President Ghani and Prime Minister Sharif (Pakistan) have agreed to bring back the QCG in attempt to stem terrorism and keep open line of communication in order to promote peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. This recent coordination took place during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit recently held in Astana, Kazakhstan. Read a press release by the Office of the President of Afghanistan, June 10, 2017. http://president.gov.af/en/News/0090

Amrullah Saleh Resigns. The state minister for security reforms has resigned. Saleh previously served as head of the National Directorate of Security (NDS). See "Amrullah Saleh Resigns as State Minister for Security Reforms", Tolo News, June 13,2017. The presidential palace indicated they were not informed officially about the resignation. Other observers have noted that the post was symbolic in nature and no real power to provide reforms was given to Saleh. Read "ARG Calls on Saleh to Clarify Reasons for Resigning", Tolo News, June 14, 2017. Certainly, this is not good for reforming the security ministries, diminishing corruption, or inspiring confidence in the Afghan government.

China to Mediate? The foreign minister of China is scheduled to visit Pakistan and Afghanistan to try to improve relations between the Kabul and Islamabad. See "China to Mediate Between Pakistan and Afghanistan", Gandhara, June 14, 2017.

Development News

$520 Million from World Bank. A multi-million dollar package of funding for projects is to be used to assist Afghanistan's economy, build critical infrastructure, and support Afghan refugees sent back from Pakistan. Donor money is being provided by a number of countries to include Denmark, Germany, and Japan. The largest chunk of money will assist the refugees. Read more in "World Bank Gives Afghanistan $520 Million to Help Refugees, Boost Economy", Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, June 14, 2016.

Development Projects in Limbo. Hundreds of development projects are on hold, stalled, or not yet begun for a variety of reasons. Only 15% of annual budget for 2017 spent in first six months. Read more in "Hundreds of Development Projects Remain in Limbo", Tolo News, June 17,2017.

Afghan Mining Company Owner Indicted by U.S. The owner of a mining company in Afghanistan - which is no longer in business - has been indicted on charges of defrauding the U.S. government and defaulting on a loan of almost $16 million. He was arrested at the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport on June 13, 2017. The loan was for the development, maintenance, and operation of a marble mine in western Afghanistan. Seems he thought it was a good idea to transfer the money into his personal bank account and default on the loan. I wonder how many times this has happened over the years in Afghanistan? Read more in "US Indicts Owner of Afghan Mining Company for Defrauding Government", Voice of America, June 17, 2017. Read more about the Afghan marble industry in western Afghanistan.

Corruption News

For years the U.S. and its international partners have complained about and tried to reduce the corruption that is rampant in the Afghan government at the national, provincial, and district level. This corruption is pervasive within all of the ministries. And, in addition, it is found at all levels within the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). For just as many years Afghan government and security force leaders have said they are instituting reforms to eliminate corruption. And . . . for just as many years . . . almost nothing has been done by the Afghan government to reign in the graft and corruption - which would lead to better governance, more services to the Afghan people, and more effective national security institutions. Reducing corruption to an 'acceptable level' would also take away one of the main recruiting themes of the insurgents. Read more . . .

June 11, 2017. "Away From the Fighting, Kabul Takes On Another Enemy: Corruption", by Frud Bezhan, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

Recent Videos on Afghanistan

Engaging with Afghan Civil Society. The Senior Civilian Representative (SCR) from NATO to Afghanistan has provided his insight on how ". . . civil society is a key driver of change . . ." for Afghanistan. Watch video here. (RS HQ video, 1 min, June 14, 2017).

Task Force Southwest supports ANDSF Maiwand Three operations. U.S. Marine advisors are assisting ANA soldiers with the 215th Corps in Helmand province, Afghanistan. The advisors are providing support for the Maiwand Three operation currently underway. Watch video here (RS HQs video, 1-min, June 15, 2017).

Afghan soldiers complete mechanic training. A maintenance chief in the Afghan Army based in Helmand province, Afghanistan tells us how the U.S. is helping his men support the 215th Corp in the fight against insurgents. (RS HQs, 1 min, June 13, 2017).

Afghan War Blog Snippets

Ford Pickups - Right Country; Wrong Paint Job. Last month (May 2017) a freelance journalist took a photograph of Ford Ranger pickup trucks with the Afghan National Army's (ANA) logo on them. A lot of speculation occurred in the media on how that could happen. Rumors about corrupt Afghan officials selling them, to cross-wires on shipment orders, and other conspiracy theories soon were abundant. The U.S. DoD did a little investigation and found that the pickup trucks did arrive at the right destination - but just with the wrong paint job. The Iraqi MoD decided not to paint over the ANA logo . . . it seems. Read "Mistaken paint jobs blamed after dozens of U.S.-funded trucks surface in Iraq with Afghan logos", The Washington Post, June 14, 2017.

'Insider Attack' Victim Speaks Out. Webster Shipley, a civilian project engineer for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, talks about the insider attack on August 5, 2014 at Kabul's Camp Qargha where he was shot twice by an Afghan soldier. Read "Victim of insider attack says US must remain committed to Afghanistan", Stars & Stripes, June 16, 2017.

Guam's 368th MP Company Completing Tour. The U.S. Army Reserve Soldiers from Guam's military police company will soon complete their 9-month tour. They performed two different missions while in Afghanistan. One was a customs mission on Bagram and Kandahar Airfields and the other was a protective detail for COM RS. See "A long way from home: Guam sentinels serve in Afghanistan", DVIDS, June 12, 2017.

Report by Stability Journal on NGO's in Afghanistan. Stability: International Journal of Security & Development has published a research article entitled "NGO Presence and Activity in Afghanistan, 2000-2014: A Provincial-Level Dataset", June 13, 2017.
www.stabilityjournal.org/articles/10.5334/sta.497/

Report by Conciliation Resources on Peace. Conciliation Resources is an independent international organization based in London that works in the conflict field attempting to prevent violence, resolve conflicts, and promote peaceful societies. It has published a new 2-page report (June 2017) entitled Processing peace in Afghanistan.
www.c-r.org/resources/processing-peace-afghanistan

Afghan Interpreter Joins the USMC. Mohammad Nadir worked as an interpreter for the U.S. Marines in Helmand province for three years. Now he is serving in the U.S. military. Read "Afghan interpreter fulfills dream of becoming a U.S. Marine", Marine Corps Times, June 13, 2017.

Jail Time for 219th Corps Leaders. The 209th Corps military court found 34 Army personnel guilty of negligence in relation to the Camp Shaheen attack that left over 100 ANA soldiers dead. Read "34 Army Personnel Get Jail Terms Over Shaheen Corps Attack", Tolo News, June 14, 2017.

Stay Informed on Afghan Events!

Sunday, June 11, 2017

Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter for June 11, 2017

Blog and Newsletter Resumes Publication

The Afghan War Blog and Weekly Newsletter has returned after a six-month long absence. Several overseas trips (including a few to Afghanistan) precluded posting and publishing activities. However, things are back to normal and you should expect to see the weekly updates posted online and emailed to you if a subscriber. Should you no longer wish to receive the newsletter then it is easy to unsubscrib - see note at bottom of the email.

Three U.S. Service Members Killed in Afghanistan on June 10, 2017 in Insider Attack

Three U.S. service members were killed in an apparent insider attack in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan on Saturday, June 10, 2017. The killer was reported to be a member of the Afghan Special Service Force (ASSF). He was killed immediately after the attack. One U.S. service member was wounded in the attack. Read a news release on the incident by the Department of Defense, Three U.S. Soldiers Killed in Afghanistan, June 10, 2017.

Kabul Process for Peace and Security Cooperation

The government of Afghanistan convened the first meeting of the "Kabul Process for Peace and Security Cooperation" on June 6, 2017 in Kabul. Representatives of regional nations as well as the international community were invited to attend. President Ghani outlined Afghanistan's new vision and strategy for peace - in an attempt to gain regional and international support. It is hoped that the "Kabul Process" will provide an overarching process that will serve as an umbrella for the various peace and reconciliation forums of the past, present, and future. It is also anticipated that the "Kabul Process" will position the Afghan government as the key driving force for achieving peace - with support from regional powers and other international partners and actors. More information and resources about the Kabul Process can be found below:

Kabul Process - Peace and Security Cooperation by Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs

http://mfa.gov.af/en/page/the-kabul-process

Kabul Peace Process: A Time for Solidarity, by Office of the President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, June 6, 2017. http://president.gov.af/en/SOKP

"Afghanistan's 'Kabul Process' Kicks Off Amid Regional Shifts", by Aveek Sen, The Diplomat, June 9, 2017.

4-Year ANDSF Roadmap

Over the past several months the Afghan security institutions have developed a strategic plan to enhance the capacity and capability of its security forces, professionalize its military and police leadership, and defeat the insurgents. This strategic plan has been named the "Afghan National Defense and Security Forces 4-year Roadmap". The Afghan government and NATO commanders have worked together to develop this strategic plan with the over-arching goal of expanding " . . . Afghan government control over more territory, increase the proportion of the population residing in that territory, and compel the Taliban to agree to a peace process leading to reconciliation and an end of hostilities." [1]

The key components of the "4-year Roadmap" are to bolster capability and capacity of the Afghan Air Force (AAF), double the number of Afghan Special Security Forces (ASSF) [2], reduce corruption, professionalize the Afghan senior security leadership and training,and create an environment that fosters unity of effort and command. [3]

[1] Quote is from the Report to the United States Congress, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), April 30, 2017, page 82. The Taliban now control more territory in Afghanistan than at any other time since the time that their regime was toppled in late 2011. The percentage of population living in Taliban controlled or contested areas has significantly increased over the past several years. It is unlikely that the Taliban, having not been defeated on the battlefield, will come to the peace table any time soon.

[2] The ASSF consist of the MoD's Afghan National Army Special Operations Command (ANASOC) and MoI's General Command of Police Special Units (GCPSU). The ASSF is considered by many to be the only professional military or police organizations within the ANDSF. The Special Mission Wing (SMW) is sometimes grouped within the ASSF. Over the past few years 70% of the offensive operations have been conducted by the ASSF.

[3] See a short 2-min long video published by Resolute Support HQs featuring Lt. Gen. Jurgen Weigt, Chief of Staff, Resolute Support Mission that outlines the key components of the 4-year Roadmap. www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPzk8CVgRGI