Afghan War Blog

Sunday, November 1, 2015

Intelligence News

CIA's Red Cell. After 9/11 the agency developed a semi-independent organization called the 'Red Cell' that was charged with getting a fresh set of eyes to consider possible terror threats. The Red Cell employed alternative-analysis techniques and is used to provoke thought within the agency. Read more in "Inside the CIA Red Cell: How an experimental unit transformed the intelligence community", Foreign Policy, October 30, 2015.

U.S. Intel Agencies - Lacking Cultural and Language Expertise. The intelligence agencies of the U.S. - of which there are many - have a proven track record of not reaching out to academia for experts in history, culture, and language. Read more in "The Ignorance of Intelligence Agencies", by Williamson Murray, War on the Rocks, October 26, 2015.

Daniel Craig Wouldn't Cut It. According to one news story James Bond wouldn't have the 'emotional intelligence' to get a job as a real-life spy. Hmmmm. (Quartz, Oct 2015).

Security News

Central Asia Worried about Afghan Northern Border. There are fears among Central Asian states that the Afghan conflict will soon spill over into the neighboring countries to the north. One of these nations is Tajikistan - where increasing militancy is also a problem. There are reports that a large number of Central Asian militants (Uzbek, Kyrgyz, Uighurs, and Chechen) have been fighting alongside the Afghan Taliban in northern Afghanistan. Tajik authorities have increased security along its border and at the seven border crossing posts. In addition, the Russians have deployed over 7,000 of its military to Tajikistan as well as attack helicopters. Read more in "Tajikistan fears instability as Afghan conflict rages on", BBC News, October 31, 2015.

U.S. Wonders Where Central Asia Is! While the Russian Empire is busy solidifying its influence in Central Asia and China builds its modern "Silk Road" the U.S. is noticeably absent from the 'Stans. Read more in "The U.S. Belatedly Remembers that Central Asia Exists", Silk Road Reporters, October 29, 2015.

Locals Fight ISIS in Nangarhar. Hundreds of local citizens in Afghanistan's eastern Nangarhar province have launched an uprising against the Islamic State in Achin district. There are reports that the local fighters will be recruited into the ranks of the Afghan Local Police or ALP. (Voice of America, Oct 30, 2015).

UK to Maintain Forces Through 2016. The United Kingdom currently has about 450 troops deployed to advise and assist the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). Recent announcements indicate that the troop levels will not drop significantly in 2016.

DoD Investigating Child Abuse Reports. The Defense Department's Inspector General is launching an investigation into how U.S. military commander's have handled accusations of child rape by Afghan military commanders. (The Cable - Foreign Policy, Oct 28, 2015).

Afghan Civilians 'Gapping It'. An exodus of Afghan civilians - unfortunately the best and brightest - is leaving Afghanistan as the Taliban gains ground and hope for the future diminishes. The number of Afghans applying for asylum has more than doubled in 2015 due to poverty, insecurity, and disappointment with the National Unity Government (NUG). (The Guardian, Oct 29, 2015).

NUG One Year On. The Asia Foundation examines the National Unity Government after the completion of its first year. (Asia Foundation, Oct 28, 2015).

Helmand and Uruzgan Provinces at Risk. Reports in the media say that the Taliban continue to make advances in two key Afghan provinces. Insurgents have come within five miles of the provincial capital of Helmand - Lashkhar Gah. Read more in "Afghan Soldiers, Besieged by Taliban, Say They Are Outgunned", The New York Times, October 30, 2015.

CSTC-A Dividends

The October 2015 issue of the Combined Security Transition Command - Afghanistan (CSTC-A) Dividend$ newsletter has been published. There are three main topics - 1) the Maintenance Bridging Strategy, 2) Ministerial Internal Controls, and 3) the Capabilities Development Course.
www.rs.nato.int/images/media/Misc/dividends-oct-2015.pdf

Counterterrorism

Counterterrorism - Comparing Bush and Obama. The policies of President Bush and President Obama were more aligned than some think in the counterterrorism effort. While President Obama wanted to withdraw from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - reality hit him square in the face. In addition, his efforts to close Guantanamo's prison for terrorists hit a roadblock as well as the reality of capturing terrorists in 'ungoverned areas' complicated internment practices and extradition to other nations. Read more in "When It Comes to Counterterrorism, Why Bush and Obama Aren't So Far Apart", National Public Radio, October 30, 2015.

Drone Papers. The Intercept recently published articles on the drone programs used by the U.S. to kill terrorists and high-level combatants in Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and other places. There are critics and defenders of the program. Read "The Drone Papers: Intercepting the Nonsense", Lawfare Blog, October 27, 2015.

Updated DoDD 5205.15. The Department of Defense Directive DoD Counter Threat Finance (CTF) Policy (DoDD 5205.14), dated August 19, 2010 has been updated with changes effective October 21, 2015. The directive establishes DoD policy and assigns DoD responsibilities for countering financing used to engage in terrorism, illicit trafficking networks, and related activities that support an adversary's ability to negatively affect U.S. interests.
www.dtic.mil/whs/directives/corres/pdf/520514p.pdf

Hesitant to Say 'Islamic Terrorism'. The Department of Homeland Security, Jeh Johnson, seems to be reluctant to say the words 'Islamic Terrorism' - as if it didn't exist. Read more in a news report by CNS News, October 30, 2015.

Afghan War News Snippets

USAF PJ's in Afghanistan. A pararescueman or "PJ" is interviewed about his job in Afghanistan in "How this elite Air Force rescue squadron's mission has evolved in Afghanistan", Stars and Stripes, October 29, 2015.

Spain Withdraws. Because things are going so well in Afghanistan, the NATO presence in Herat province has been downsized. Read more in "Spain Completes withdrawal from Afghanistan", Defense News, October 29, 2015.

China and Afghanistan. "A series of Chinese-financed infrastructure, energy, and transport projects has now raised hopes that the investments will help in establishing lasting peace in Afghanistan." Read more about some ambitious projects taking place in Central Asia that will indirectly help Afghanistan in "New Chinese Grand Strategy to Help Afghanistan", Gandhara Blog, October 31, 2015.

Leading Producer of Opium? Afghanistan. Despite $8.4 billion spent on counter-drug efforts in Afghanistan the country remains the leading producer of opium. (Ottawa Citizen, Oct 30, 2015).

Kabul's Drug Users. The Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) provides us with a report on the tough living conditions that Kabul drug users endure. (AAN, Oct 29, 2015).

Flying Above Kabul. A news correspondent, Dan Lamothe, shares his experience of flying in a CH-47 Chinook helicopter over Afghanistan in "An Army Chinook crew's mission over Afghanistan", The Washington Post, October 29, 2015.

Storied F-16 Based at Bagram. A fighter jet at BAF is credited with shooting down three aircraft in a single mission - making it one of the military's most decorated. (The Washington Post, Oct 29, 2015).

ATP 3-07.6, Protection of Civilians. This manual, dated October 2015, is published by the Department of the Army and outlines the responsibilities to protect civilians during military operations. http://fas.org/irp/doddir/army/atp3-07-6.pdf

MSF Hospitals Hit - Afghanistan & Yemen. The outcry from the medical humanitarian group differs in two instances - the Saudi strike against a hospital in Yemen and a U.S. strike against a hospital in Kunduz. One analyst - Joshua Foust - examines the background in "How Can America Respond to a Double Standard in War?", Foreign Policy Research Institute Blog, October 28, 2015.

Taliban Fighter Costumes Popular. The Military Police on Bagram Airfield report that the most commonly scene Halloween costume is the "Taliban Fighter". Read more in a news report by Duffel Blog, October 31, 2015.

Afghanistan Lacking Revenue. Domestic revenues have accounted for 39 percent of the total budget expenditures in Afghanistan so far in 2015. Donor contributions make up the rest. Read more in a news report by The Washington Post, October 31, 2015.

Counterterrorism - Comparing Bush and Obama. "When It Comes to Counterterrorism, Why Bush and Obama Aren't So Far Apart", National Public Radio, October 30, 2015.

Army Artillery Open to Women. The United States Army has officially opened more than 19,000 field artillery jobs to women. (Army Times, Oct 29, 2015).

Attack Piece Upon Gen John Allen. General Allen (now retired) is a former commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) - the predecessor to Resolute Support. One author provides biting commentary on the distinguished and highly respected general - trashing him for his lack of ethics. Sometimes you got to wonder where these guys are coming from. Read "The Eroding Ethics of Senior Military Officers: John R. Allen", by James W. Weirick, Medium.com, October 15, 2015.

Ridding Combat Arms of the "Macho" Male. A dissenting voice explains to us how the Defense Department is forcing culture change within the U.S. military to ensure the integration of women into combat arms units. Read "Changing the 'Macho' Male Culture of the US Military", Small Wars Journal, October 29, 2015.

Bacha Bazi - Legal Obligations? The recent coverage by The New York Times and other news media on the U.S. military's relationship with Afghan commander's who partake in Bacha Bazi is the topic of a recent report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). Read a legal sidebar entitled "Legal Obligation of U.S. Armed Forces to Intervene in Acts of Bacha Bazi in Afghanista", CRS, posted on Homeland Security Digital Library, October 22, 2015.

Subscribe to the Weekly Afghan War Newsletter

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Sunday, October 25, 2015

Temporary Halt to Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter

Unfortunately there is no Afghan War Blog Weekly Newsletter this Sunday. I am on the road traveling on a short-term work assignment. Blogging, Tweeting, and posting to the website will resume in a few weeks. AWN

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Troop Levels to Remain the Same

The Obama administration is finally catching on to the fact that the security situation Afghanistan is not getting any better - that instead the security (as well political, governance, and economic) situation is declining. Despite the constant proclamations by ISAF and now Resolute Support spokesmen that the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) are improving daily in their capabilities there are still some significant problems. As in the ANDSF are getting swacked by the Taliban and that the Taliban's grip on some rural and remote areas are as strong as ever. The recent attack and occupation of Kunduz City (a provincial capital) points out how bad the ANDSF are performing. To this end the U.S. is going to be postponing its withdrawal of forces from the 9,800 level down to 5,500. Instead of withdrawing to a Bagram / Kabul centric advisory and CT force it will remain at certain hub locations like Jalalabad (and TB Gamberi) and Kandahar - while some European forces will continue to occupy places like Mazar-e Sharif (and perhaps Herat). So for most of 2016 there will be roughly 10K U.S. troops in Afghanistan continuing with the current Train, Advise & Assist (TAA) & Counterterrorism (CT) mission. The 2015 fighting season has made it apparent that ISAF and now Resolute Support was probably 2-3 years too early in pulling the SFAATs off the ANA brigades and two of the six ANA Corps.

Read some news stories on this development:

Oct 17, 2015. "Karzai Criticizes Ongoing US Military Presence", Tolo News. Of course, would you expect anything different?

Oct 16, 2015. "Obama troop plan just enough to prop up Afghan army: experts", Yahoo! News. More of the same; just for two more years, that's all.

Oct 16, 2015. "9,800 U.S. Troops Won't Fix Afghanistan. Here's What They Can Do.", by Michael Kugelman, The Wall Street Journal.

Oct 16, 2015. "Obama's Two-Year Plan for Afghanistan is Doomed", or so says Ioannis Koskinas at Defense One.

Oct 15, 2015. "Closure is Hard to Find". The Angry Staff Officer Blog. Just when you thought the war was over and we won . . . .

Oct 15, 2015. "5 Reasons Obama's Afghan Withdrawal Delay is Necessary But Not Sufficient", by Mike Waltz, Defense One. Mike says this is like putting a band aid on a sucking chest wound.

Oct 15, 2015. "Should We Stay or Should We Go? Experts Praise Afghanistan Troop Reversal", NBC News. (video and text report).

Oct 15, 2015. "Obama's Decision to Keep U.S. Troops in Afghanistan is Long Overdue", The Daily Signal.

Oct 15, 2015. Statement from the Embassy of Afghanistan (D.C.). Of course GIRoA is happy; more money to skim from the coffers.

Oct 15, 2015. "Afghanistan and "Failed State Wars": The Need for a Realistic Transition", By Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic & International Studies.

NATO Helicopter Crashes in Kabul

A British helicopter crashed on Sunday, October 11th causing the death of two RAF personnel, two U.S. military, and one French contractor. It is reported that five others were injured in the crash of the UK Puma Mk 2 helicopter. All ten are reported to be Coalition personnel. Some reports indicate that the helicopter hit the cable anchoring an observation and surveillance balloon. Read more in a casualty report by Resolute Support, October 12, 2015. The two U.S. airmen were identified in this news release by DoD on October 13, 2015. Resolute Support HQs held a memorial service at RS HQs - a video is posted at the following link. www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOCp3rLx3T4

Growing the Afghan Local Police (ALP)?

It appears that the government of Afghanistan is looking to grow the size of the Afghan Local Police or ALP. The Taliban's recent success in Kunduz City and their overall success on the battlefield across the country has the Afghan government worried. The Taliban control or contest almost 25% of the 398 districts of Afghanistan. It is quite clear that the corrupt and unprofessional Afghan National Police (ANP) are ill suited for quelling the insurgency and that the Afghan National Army is unable to defeat the insurgency. Afghanistan has been (and probably always will be) a country of regional strongmen (call them warlords if you will) and of local militia forces sometimes loyal to the central government but usually owing allegiance to local power brokers. Enter the Afghan Local Police. The government would like to increase the size of the ALP by quite a few thousand members - way beyond the current 30,000 that is funded by the United States. This has put the Europeans into the HP mode and got them frothing at the mouth - they equate the ALP with militias. It will be interesting to see how this works out. Read more in "Afghan Plan to Expand Militia Raises Abuse Concerns", The New York Times, October 16, 2015. Learn more about the Afghan Local Police and read news reports about the Afghan Local Police.

Balochistan - A Long Struggle

South of the Afghan border in an area of Pakistan known as Balochistan a long-time struggle for independence continues. This area, the size of Germany, is Pakistan's biggest and poorest province. The Baloch nationalists have been fighting for independence from Pakistan since 1947 - the year the country of Pakistan came into being. The Baloch are an ethnic minority with their own culture, language, history, and traditions. While the province is poor and undeveloped it is home to rich natural resources (oil, gas, minerals) and has a coastline with a deep-sea port. Many Balochs flee the fighting and head north over the border into southern Afghanistan. Read more in "Balochistan, The Bloodiest War You've Never Heard Of", by Laura Secorun Palet, Ozy.com, October 15, 2015.

Fall of Kundez: The Aftermath

Taliban Announce Withdrawal from Kunduz City. After many days of fighting the Taliban announced that it was ceasing the fight in the city proper to avoid unnecessary deaths among its ranks in with the civilian population. During their brief occupation of Kunduz the managed to free inmates from two prisons, destroy government offices and facilities, and hunting government employees. In addition, they embarrassed the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). Read more in "Taliban Withdraw From Kunduz After Days of Fighting", The New York Times, October 13, 2015.

Government Employees and Others Rounded Up? The Taliban did a lot of damage for the few days they occupied the city. Part of their operations involved the rounding up of government employees and others supporting the fight against the Taliban. Read more in "Screams From Northern Afghanistan Have Been Silenced", by Jade Wu, Small Wars Journal, October 12, 2015.

More on Airstrike on Hospital. It appears that US analysts knew that the DWB location was a hospital. According to some sources the facility was being used by a Pakistani operative to coordinate Taliban activity within Kunduz. The hospital was suspected of being a Taliban command and control center harboring heavy weapons. The Pakistani, believed to have been working for the Pakistan Inter-Service Intelligence directorate, is assessed as being killed in the airstrike. Read more in "US Analysts knew Afghan site was Hospital", Associated Press, October 15, 2015.

Central Asian States Nervous. The Taliban capture of a provincial capital for the first time since 2001 has shaken the the Afghan security forces and Afghan government. Other folks are concerned as well - including the Central Asian countries to the north of Afghanistan (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan). Russia, seemingly engaged everywhere nowadays, is offering their security assistance. Read more in "After Fall of Kunduz, Russia Tries to Shore Up Defenses in Central Asia", EurasiaNet, October 10, 2015. See also "Russian troops could be deployed to Afghanistan's borders as the US leaves", Business Insider, October 15, 2015.

New Governors for Northern Afghanistan. President Ghani has appointed four new governors for northern Afghan provinces. This is in response to the security situation in northern Afghanistan that has steadily deteriorated since 2009. The leadership changes are taking place in Takhar, Faryab, Baghlan, and Sar-i-Pul provinces. Read more in "Can new governors turn the Taliban tide in northern Afghanistan?", IRIN, Octobere 8, 2015.

15 Days of Fighting. It took fifteen days of fierce fighting for Afghan government forces and their US allies to push the Taleban back out of Kunduz City. Read how it happened in "The fall and recapture of Kunduz", by Obaid Ali, Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), October 16, 2015.

Aftermath. A Kabul-based Afghan journalist is embedded with the Afghan special forces in Kunduz. He is interviewed about the state of the Kunduz siege in "Kunduz Frontline Report: 10 Days After the Taliban Siege", The Diplomat, October 10, 2015. The U.S. is reportedly making condolence payments for those injured in the air attack on the Kunduz hospital. See a news release on this topic by the DoD on October 10, 2015.

Commentary

"Today's training and advisory effort is only engaged at the regional corps level, not the brigades and battalions actually doing the fighting. Our advisors are helping only with support efforts such as human resources and procurement. This kind of effort is important for long-term success at the institutional level but the Afghans need tactical operational support now". This is probably one of the most accurate statements about the train and advise mission in Afghanistan that describes the current situation. See news story by Mike Waltz, Defense One, October 15, 2015.

Time for a COIN A-10? The U.S. Air Force plans (despite objections of Congress) to scrap its very capable fleet of A-10 Warthogs in other to free up funding for its very expensive and less capable (in terms of Close Air Support) F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. One analyst says we need both - that it is time for a counterinsurgency-specific A-10. Read "A Tale of Two Air Forces", Atlantic Council, October 11, 2015.

Bacha Bazi and the U.S. Military. One writer, Justin Lynch, provides us his view of what the U.S. military needs to do when confronted with Bacha Bazi among our Afghan allies. He believes that ". . . failing to prevent our allies from recreationally kidnapping and raping Afghan boys will hinder the United States' efforts in Afghanistan". Read "National Security, Pragmatism, and Human Rights", The Medium.com, October 13, 2015.

It's the Economy, Stupid. Daniel Fisher, a former infantryman who served in Afghanistan, tells us how we are missing the boat in our counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan. Read "COIN & the Capitalists: Private Sector Development and the Endgame in Afghanistan", Small Wars Journal, October 12, 2015.

Proxy Warfare - Not so Much. Adam Elkus tells us why the use of proxies to fight America's wars may not be such a great idea in "The Moral Hazard of Proxy Warfare", War on the Rocks, October 14, 2015.

Can Afghan Govt Forces Win? Thomas Biddle, a national security analyst, is interviewed about the current security situation in Afghanistan and prospects for the future. Read "Can Afghan Forces Resist the Taliban?", Defense One, October 9, 2015.

IS in Afghanistan

ISIS expands in Nangarhar Province. Recent reports indicate that the Islamic State has become entrenched in several districts in Nangarhar province in eastern Afghanistan. More than a few local Taliban groups have switched allegiance from the Taliban to the Islamic State. Money appears to be one of the motivating factors as the Islamic State seems to be offering better pay for its fighters. The re-flagged fighters are also more cruel in their methods and adopting more strident measures than the Taliban. Read an analysis by Mujib Mashal in "Afghan ISIS Branch Makes Inroads in Battle Against Taliban", The New York Times, October 13, 2015.

SOF News

Commandos Kill Taliban Dep Gov. Afghan commandos are reported to have killed the Taliban Deputy Govenor for Farah province. The ANA conducted several operations in the western province last week. (Khaama Press, Oct 12, 2015).

Brit SF Return to Camp Bastion. It appears that the British will re-occupy Camp Bastion in Helmand province for a least a short period of time. Seems that some Afghan units (Commandos?) are in need of advice and assistance. Read a news report by the Daily Mail, October 15, 2015.

SF NCO Facing Discharge. Little support is forthcoming from the Massachusetts delegation to Congress for the Special Forces NCO from Milton, Massachusetts who will soon be discharged from the Army for beating up an Afghan police officer who held a young Afghan boy captive and sexually exploited him. Read more in a recent news report (WBUR, Oct 13, 2015).

SF Medic Receives Recognition. Dan Winschel currently works as a Physician Assistant the Veterans Administration Jamaica Plain Hospital in Massachusetts. He started out 28 years ago as a Special Forces medic with 7th Special Forces Group and has deployed to Afghanistan many times. The Veterans Administration recently recognized "Veteran of the Day".

Ukraine SOF. The Ukraine has been a dependable Coalition partner in the Afghan War. They have revamped their special forces. Read more in "Meet Ukraine's new elite Special Forces securing the border", UA Today, October 17, 2015.

India's SOD. The Indian military is changing up the organization of its SOF units by creating a Special Operations Division (SOD). (The Times of India, Oct 17, 2015).

3rd Female to Graduate Ranger School. Reports indicate that a third female has graduated from Ranger School. It would seem that she spent more than the usual 60 days at the course - having recycled a few times - staying in the course about 180 days. Some news report say she is a 37-year old mother of two. I went through when I was 32 years old and the 4th oldest graduating student in my class. 37-years old? Must be a stud! Good for her. (The Washington Post, Oct 12, 2015).

Intel & CT

CIA Psychologists Being Sued. A lawsuit was filed this past week in federal court in Spokane, Washington against a pair of psychologists who earned millions using untested, brutal techniques, such as waterboarding, on CIA prisoners. Read more in "Former prisoners sue architects of CIA's brutal interrogation program", The Washington Post, October 13, 2015.

Ex-CIA Agent Who Wasn't. A man who passed himself off as an employee of the Central Intelligence Agency has been arrested. His story of a 27-year career with the agency has some holes in it. He appeared on Fox News as an expert on intelligence matters from time to time. His LinkedIn account says he worked a few DoD contracts in Afghanistan as well; however, some sources close to those enterprises say he was sent home as he didn't have a valid clearance and . . . . (The Washington Post, October 15, 2015).

How is working for the CIA? Learn more in "A Day in the Life of a CIA Political Analyst Intern.", Central Intelligence Agency, October 14, 2015.

Movie - 'Bridge of Spies'. A new movie is out set in the Cold War starring Tom Hanks. I personally don't like Hanks as an actor; but he does star is some great movies. It is somewhat based on real events based on the exchange of Francis Gary Powers (captured U2 pilot) and Rudolf Abel (Russian spy). Read a review in War is Boring, Oct 16, 2015. See also a historical record of the event by the Central Intelligence Agency entitled "The Cold War: Strangers on a Bridge".

Drone Pilots Speak Out. General Hawk Carlisle, the head of Air Combat Command, listened to remotely piloted aircraft pilots for over four hours about the RPA career field over a week ago. There were lots of recommendations on how to fix the RPA career field. Currently there is a shortage of RPA airmen that is expected to worsen over the next few years. RPAs or drones have been used extensively in Afghanistan. Read more in "RPA operators to Air Force: Fix this career field", C4ISR Networks, October 8, 2015.

Intel on Russia - Not so Much. "Politicians in Washington are pointing their fingers at spies for making them look silly on Russia and Syria. Did our spies mess up again?" The House Intelligence Committee has some deep concerns on the quality and timeliness of the Intel they are being provided. Read more in "Washington's Civil War over Russia Intel", The Daily Beast, October 12, 2015.

"The New Normal?" Bobby Chesney, a professor of law at the University of Texas School of Law (and fellow at Brookings), asks if the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) has come to an end or is it still on-going but with a different name? He discusses the 'lily pad' concept of stationing counterterrorism forces around the world to attack terrorists who might plan or attempt to execute attacks against the United States or its interests. This 'light footprint' approach, he says, might be called the "Global Counterterrorism Footprint". Read more in "The New Normal? From Global War on Terrorism to Global Counterterrorism Footprint", Lawfare Blog, October 5, 2015.

Security News

ANA Aircraft Losses. There have been reports of Afghan aircraft crashing this past week to include one in Logar province and one in Bamyan province. The Bamyan crash involved a small ANA transport plane with several people on board; two pilots died and five others were injured.

ANDSF Offensive in Shorabak District. A recent operation conducted by Afghan forces, aided by air support from the United States, took place in southern Kandahar province from October 7-11, 2015. Over 63 precision airstrikes were conducted in support of the operation. Read more in "Afghan, US forces destroy al-Qaeda training sites in Kandahar", Khaama Press, October 13, 2015. See also a news report by The Long War Journal, October 13, 2015.

Herat Airfield Transitioning. Because the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) are almost done mopping up the remainder of the insurgency and the ANDSF no longer needs any training, advising, and assisting from TAAC-West the Coalition will begin the transition of Herat Airfield to the Afghan government. Read more in "Coalition partners prepare for base, airfield transition in Herat and beyond", DVIDS, October 15, 2015.

USAF Drawing Down in Afghanistan. The commander of the 455th Air Expeditionary Wing says that he is developing plans to draw down the air support that he provides to U.S. forces and the Afghan military. Because things are going so well in Afghanistan we no longer need air support as much as before. See "Air Force plans Afghanistan drawdown while fight continues", Air Force Times, October 13, 2015.

Ghazni Operations. The Taliban conducted operations along the Kabul-Kandahar highway and caused shops to close in Ghazni city. Government troops reopened the highway that had been shut down on Monday. Some say the Taliban were trying to capture the provincial capital. Read more in "Afghan forces repel Taliban attack on Ghazni as offensive spreads", The Guardian, October 13, 2015.

UNAMA Staff Worker Killed. A female member of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) was shot and killed by unidentified gunmen in Kandahar city this past Monday morning. The UNAMA staff worker was shot while walking along a street. (Khaama Press, Oct 12, 2015).

Good Guys and Bad Guys. The security environment in Afghanistan is complex and the numbers of players and actors with agendas is unfathomable. Lately there has been some discussion among Afghans about Taliban infiltrators within the government. Read more in "Afghans Debate Fifth Columnists", Gandhara Blog, October 13, 2015.

Troops to the North. The Ministry of Defense (MoD) says that thousands of troops will be sent to Kunduz, Takhar, and Badakhshan provinces in order to stop the growing threat of the insurgency in northern Afghanistan. (Tolo News, Oct 17, 2015).

Map - Control of Districts. The Threat Matrix (A blog of The Long War Journal) has updated its map showing which districts the Taliban control or contest. Right now the count is 70 districts out of a total of 398.

Map - US Troop Deployment History. Agence France-Presse (AFP) has posted on Twitter an infographic depicting the US troop deployment history in Afghanistan, plus death toll and current militant attack zones. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/654925033987399680

Car Bomb Targets Brit Convoy. Three civilians were wounded when insurgents targeted a British convoy in Kabul. (The Telegraph, Oct 11, 2015).

Information Operations

Damage Control on Hospital Airstrike. The U.S. is still doing damage control on the AC-130 airstrike on the Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kunduz City. DWB is continuing its IO offensive (Twitter, press releases, & website postings) against the U.S. calling the incident a war crime while the U.S. maintains it was an accident. Recent info saying that U.S. SOF personnel knew the facility was a hospital is not helping. The Pakistan government is denying reports floated by the U.S. that a Pakistani intelligence operative was conducting business on the grounds of the hospital.

Taliban and the Media. The Taliban have declared Afghanistan's Tolo News and 1TVNewsAF as legitimate targets; saying they are US propaganda tools. Naturally the media in Afghanistan is upset. The government is also taking action on the international front (Tolo News, Oct 17, 2015).

Troop Withdrawal. The U.S. administration is trying to shore up support among Democrats for the revised troop withdrawal plan while some Republicans are saying it still isn't enough. Still plenty of party politics left in the Afghan War for it to grab some headlines.

U.S. Strategy Working . . . Or Just Spin? The Obama administration claims leaving 5,500 US troops in Afghanistan is a sign that the US strategy is working. Hmmmm. Josh Earnest - Obama's spokesman - said that with a straight face. How does he sleep at night? Read "Is the US mission in Afghanistan 'working'? Or is that just spin?", The Christian Science Monitor, October 17, 2015.

ALP. The U.S. will have a major fight on its hands if it tries to win support for the increased funding of the Afghan Local Police - let's see if DVIDS, CENTCOM, or RS HQs floats out some "positive" news stories on the ALP!

IO in the Movies. The Information Operations battle is fought in many forms and arenas. One is in the movies. Sometimes it is blatant as in when Hollywood puts out an anti-war, anti-military film. And then sometimes it is a little more disguised. See "Graffiti artists slip criticism of 'Homeland' onto set", The Boston Globe, October 15, 2015.

Spinning the OBL Killing Story. Mark Bowden (book author) and Seymour Hersh (NYTs) provide two different accounts on the raid in Pakistan that killed Osama bin Laden. I going with the Bowden account. See "There's Just One Problem with Those Bin Laden Conspiracy Theories", Vanity Fair, October 16, 2105.

Patches Tell a Story. Over the years servicemen tend to collect patches that they are authorized to wear and then some more as well. The latest patch for Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) for 'that other war' is causing some controversy. Some folks read too much into the graphics and images of combat patches. Read why some people are upset about the Army's newest combat patch (The Havok Journal, October 17, 2015).

Afghan Police News

Five New PCoPs. President Ghani has appointed five new Provincial Chiefs of Police. They will assumes posts in Laghman, Nooristan, Ghani, Badghis and Sar-e-Pul. Read more in a news report by Khaama Press, October 13, 2015.

Afghan War News Snippets

Medal of Honor for Army Captain. News reports say that an Army captain will get the Medal of Honor for tackling an Afghan suicide bomber in August 2012 in Asadabad, Afghanistan. The captain, at the time a lieutenant, was in charge of a personal security detail and tackled an Afghan approaching his detail who had explosive vest. Four people died and the LT suffered severe injuries.

New SRAP. Richard Olson, the current ambassador to Pakistan, has been appointed as the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan (SRAP). The office of the SRAP coordinates across the government to meet U.S. strategic goals in the region while engaging NATO and other key friends, allies and those around the world who are interested in supporting these efforts. See news story by Khaama Press, October 16, 2015. See also a State Department news release.

State Department's webpage on SRAP. www.state.gov/s/special_rep_afghanistan_pakistan/

Women in Combat Units and the Draft. A recent graduate of the Ranger School (just last week) is the third female to do so. The 37-year old mother of two and Army reservist has now prompted more calls for the full integration of women into combat units. So the social landscape of the military is changing on a lot of fronts. Some conclude that if women want full equality then they should be subject to the draft as well. Read more in "Women Will Likely Have to Register for the Draft, Army Secretary Says", Military.com, October 12, 2015. There are some women who are currently serving that think it will take time for women to achieve command positions in combat units. Read "Slow, Steady Rise Seen for Women in Combat", Defense News, October 12, 2015. SecDef Ash Carter has issued a "hush order" (STFU) on the issue.

Winning in a Complex World. The commander of TRADOC wants everyone to know what the Army's new operating concept is (Army.mil, Oct 5, 2015).

Afghan Brain Drain. The United Nations fears an Afghan 'Brain Drain' as the Taliban surge sparks a major exodus to Europe. (Foreign Policy, Oct 13, 2015).

Report on US Aid to Afghanistan. A recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute says that Afghan businesses have failed to capitalize on the loads of money that the US and other countries have provided over the past 13 years. Read "US Aid to Afghanistan Has Largely Been Wasted and Stolen, Report Says", Vice News, October 14, 2015.

Water Fights with Iran. Water is a precious commodity and necessity of life along the Afghan-Iranian border. Sometimes the violence results in deaths. See "The rising costs of water: dire consequences for Afghans in battle with Iranians", The Guardian, October 15, 2015.

Senators Meet with USFOR-A. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and others met with the leaders of USFOR-A at Bagram Air Field this past week (Oct 15th). Conversation topics during a dinner included security, politics (Afghan), and counterterrorism. (USFOR-A Facebook, Oct 15, 2015).

Did Pakistan Know the Whereabouts of OBL? According to one news report the senior leaders of Pakistan knew Osama bin Laden was living in Pakistan. (The Washington Post, Oct 14, 2015).

Pakistan's New Strategy. The country that supports the Taliban the most by providing intelligence, sanctuaries, supplies, and money is now trying to both retain the loyalty of the Afghan Taliban but at the same time splinter the organization. Read more in "Divide and Rule: Pakistan's New Covert Taliban Approach", Gandhara Blog, October 17, 2015.

Book - Old Silk Road. A novel about the war in Afghanistan has just been published. The author, Brandon Caro, writes about an Army medic assigned to an Afghan police advisory team in Afghanistan's Laghman province in the 2007 timeframe. Read "New Book 'Old Silk Road' Plunges Into the Loss, Disillusionment, and Addiction of War", Task & Purpose, October 13, 2015.

Georgian Military Personnel Honored. A special ceremony was held to award medals to members of the IV Mechanized Brigade, 43rd Battalion serving with the Resolute Support mission. (Agenda.ge, Oct 13, 2015).

"Hard Hat of the Year". A U.S. Army Corps of Engineers employee has been named the top engineer for the entire USACE Transatlantic Division (TAD). He has been the project lead for the Marshal Fahim National Defense University in Kabul. Read more in "USACE TAA employee named top engineer", DVIDS, October 13, 2015.

Fighting the war from 30,000 Feet. A news article provides a glimpse of the war that the Air Force is waging in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. U.S. airmen discuss the harsh truths of fighting in an increasingly crowed Middle East arena. Read "War from Above with Mayhem on the Ground", U.S. News and World Report, October 13, 2015.

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Sunday, October 11, 2015

Fight for Kunduz

The fight for Kunduz City is continuing. Despite proclamations by the Ministry of Interior (MoI) spokesman every 24 hours stating that "Afghan security forces secured the city overnight" the fight rages on in some parts of Kunduz City. In the rest of the province the fight has probably been lost to the Taliban. Some correspondents are reporting that Resolute Support is very visible within the city supporting (advising?) the Afghan National Defense Security Forces (ANDSF). This would, of course, include SOF advisors with the ANA Special Operations Kandak(s) that are within or around the city. It would also include SOF advisors with the special mission units of the MoI. It is quite possible that a platoon (or company) of the Resolute Support Theater Response Force (at the moment, probably members of 2-14 Infantry) are providing security at the Kunduz airport (speculation on my part). Read a summary on Kunduz and how it relates to the 'big picture' in a report by Vanda Felbab-Brown entitled "A dispatch from Afghanistan: What the Taliban offensive in Kunduz reveals", Brookings.edu, October 8, 2015.

Taliban's Offensive in Northern Afghanistan

The eyes of the world are focused on the Taliban's recent success in taking and holding (for only a few days) the first provincial capital since 2001. Their takeover of Kunduz City shocked the Afghan public and others. The subsequent accidental bombing of a Doctor's Without Borders hospital in Kunduz City by a U.S. Air Force AC-130 gunship further focused the world on Kunduz. However, not readily apparent to others is that the Taliban are mounting a late fighting season surge across all of northern Afghanistan. Other districts have fallen under the control of the Taliban in recent weeks across the north; including two in Faryab province (The Long War Journal, Oct 8, 2015). The European component of Resolute Support at Camp Marmal in Mazar-e Sharif has very little fighting strength to offer assistance. A handful of NATO SOF advisors are available to "advise and assist" Afghan SOF units (which number too few to make a real difference) but their ability to offer air support will now be curtailed due to the CIVCAS incident in Kunduz. The coming weeks will show that the ANDSF are resilient and can counter the Taliban offensive or that it is too weak (for whatever reason) and the Taliban may carry some real gains into the winter season.

More on Airstrike on MSF Hospital in Kunduz

Reports indicate that Doctors Without Borders (MSF) has moved its personnel from Kunduz City - closing down its medical facility. An unfortunate development as it is one of the few medical centers in that very large city. The MSF medical center was hit by a U.S. airstrike during the fight for Kunduz City last week (early October). The death toll is reported to be more than twenty medical staff and patients. MSF is calling the airstrike a war crime; others are regarding the incident as a tragic error in the fog of war. The White House called the MSF hospital airstrike a 'profound tragedy'. (Tolo News, Oct 6, 2015).

AC-130 Gunship (Photo AF Defense Media)

AC-130 Gunship. Although not confirmed by the Pentagon many observers are speculating that an Air Force Special Operations AC-130 gunship conducted the airstrike. Some Pentagon reports say that the Afghan military called in the airstrike; that it was not conducted in support of U.S. troops in contact. The air attack lasted about one hour. A gunship does not always use or require a map coordinate to engage its target - it sometimes will be guided onto the target with a compass heading (direction) and distance provided by friendly force on the ground. The AC-130 almost always flies at night because of its slow speed, large size, and lower operating altitude. The U.S. military is having a difficult time explaining how it bombed the MSF hospital. (The Washington Post, Oct 5, 2015).

How Did it Happen? It seems that an Afghan army unit asked for air support because it was taking fire from the garden areas surrounding the hospital. A U.S. special operations element with the Afghan unit had some responsibility for the approving or execution of the air support mission. It is unknown if the AC-130 crew knew they were targeting a hospital. Some reports are saying that the SOF unit on the ground may not have followed proper procedure during the call for fire mission. One aspect coming to light is that the SOF unit may not have had "eyes on the target" - which may impede the ability to determine if the airstrike was hitting a legitimate target. Read more in "General Is Said to Think Afghan Hospital Airstrike Broke U.S. Rules", The New York Times, October 6, 2015. One of the more detailed examinations of the airstrike has been conducted by Kate Clark of the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN). Read her report dated October 7, 2015 entitled "Airstrike on a Hospital in Kunduz: Claims of a war crime".

Screwup or War Crime? Under the Geneva Conventions (as if the Taliban observe that agreement) hospitals can't legally be deliberately targeted for a military attack except in cases where the enemy is using hospitals as cover. A big question is if the U.S. knew the building was a hospital and if it was intentionally targeted - one would hope no in both cases. However, the MSF is pressing the case for calling the attack a war crime. Read more in "Did the US bombing of an Afghan Hospital Cross the Line Between Screwup and War Crime?", Mother Jones, October 7, 2015. Of course, the Human Rights Watch is jumping all over this drastic event. (Human Rights Watch, October 6, 2015).

Who is to Blame? With the international attention generated by this tragedy it will be hard for the U.S. military to sweep this incident under the rug. Read more in "Will Heads Roll at the Pentagon for the MSF Hospital 'Mistake'?", Foreign Policy, October 8, 2015. One observer feels that too much attention to this one tragedy will set the stage for country-wide risk. Read Anthony H. Cordesman's thoughts in The Tragedy in Kunduz, the Real Threat to Afghan Civilians, and the Need for Changes in U.S. Strategy, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), October 9, 2015.

Apologies. An incident this serious requires acknowledgement of mistakes and a thorough investigation. Fraser Seitel tells us what "A Proper Apology" entails (Forbes.com, Oct 9, 2015).

History of CIVCAS and "Unplanned Airstrikes". According to one observer there is a big difference in the incidents of civilian casualties when comparing "planned" and "unplanned" airstrikes. The incidents of civilian casualties in planned airstrikes are very small when compared to CIVCAS during unplanned airstrikes. Read "A Brief History of Unplanned Air Strikes in Afghanistan", by Matthew Gault, War is Boring, October 6, 2015.

Gen Campbell Chats With U.S. Senate

General John Campbell, the commander of the Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan, was in Washington this past week making the rounds. One of those stops was his appearance before a committee of the U.S. Senate where he gave an update on the situation in Afghanistan and answered the questions posed to him. Some questions were softballs while others were hard-hitting. One of the most touchy topics was the recent bombing of a Doctor's Without Borders hospital in Kunduz City where over 20 non-combatants were killed during an AC-130 attack. Another thorny issue was the taking of a provincial capital by the Taliban (Kunduz City) - certainly not a good news for some who would like to say that the Afghan security forces are getting better. In fact, General Campbell made it known that he supports a plan that would leave more troops in Afghanistan than is currently planned after 2015 and 2016. You can watch a video (more than 2 hours long) of his testimony before the Senate Armed Services committee held on Tuesday, October 6th, 2015. Several media outlets reported on his testimony. Read more in a news report by U.S. News & World Report, October 6, 2015. See also "Top US General in Afghanistan: Afghan Security Forces Could Potentially Collapse", The Diplomat, October 7, 2015. Not to be outdone, the U.S. DoD has issued its press release on the testimony with "Afghanistan at 'Critical Juncture', Campbell says", Defense Media Activity, October 8, 2015.

Mi-35's for Afghan Air Force?

Some news outlets are reporting that Afghanistan may receive more Mi-35 gunship helicopters from Russia. The Mi-35 is the export model of the Mi-24 HIND D that wreak lots of havoc during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan a few decades back. Currently the Afghan Air Force (AAF) has five Mi-35's but only one or two are flying depending on maintenance. The U.S. is providing twenty A-29 Super Tocanos but that deal has been years in the making and for some reason the aircraft won't be fully deployed until 2016 and 2017 (not exactly a timely solution). The U.S. also put some armament on some of the MD-530s (a small reconnaissance helicopter) but the Afghans are not very impressed with that 'little bird'. The U.S. has also outfitted some of the Mi-17s (a transport helicopter) with guns - which some Afghans refer to as a "flying tractor". The Afghans like the Mi-35 and hopefully the Russians can come through with the deal. So . . . I can just see it now. Russian maintenance and pilot instructors working hand-in-hand with advisors from Train, Advise, Assist Command - Air (TAAC-Air) while U.S. pilots are dodging Russian missiles fired from Russian naval vessels in the Caspian Sea and Russian jets in Syrian airspace. Perhaps the Russians can discreetly share some of their vodka with their U.S. counterparts. Call it an "ice breaker". Interesting times. Read more in "Afghanistan and Russia to sign a deal for delivery of Mi-35 gunships", Khaama Press, October 9, 2015. See also "Russia to Sell Modern Attack Helicopters to Afghanistan", The Diplomat, October 9, 2015.

Commentary

Training the ANA - Not so Much. A recent visitor to Afghanistan provides us his views on how well the training program in Afghanistan is going.

"Yet the current training is aimed a bureaucrats more than warriors, revolving around administrative functions such as budgeting and planning rather than the best way to fire a rifle or mount an attack."

Read what David J. Lynch has to say in "Training Afghan soldiers is just not working", USA Today, October 5, 2015.

SFA and BPC Questioned. Phillip Carter, a former Army officer and a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security provides us his thoughts on having foreign troops fight our wars. He takes a hard look at the recent Security Force Assistance (SFA) and Building Partnership Capacity (BPC) ventures in Iraq and Afghanistan and finds some areas where the effort was lacking. He cites a difference in interests, the complexity of U.S. weapons, and a lack of a will to fight among our surrogates. Read "Why foreign troops can't fight our fights", The Washington Post, October 2, 2015.

NUG, Bad Comms, & Bad Intel. The combination of a government mired in conflict (Ghani vs. Abdullah), bad communications across and up/down with MoI, MoD, Corps, Zones, etc., and bad intelligence is consistently setting up the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) for failure. Read more in "The Plight of Afghanistan's Soldiers", The Diplomat, October 7, 2015.

"I Fought For Nothing". An infantryman remembers his tour in Afghanistan (2004-2005) and contemplates if it was worth it. Read "I fought for nothing: Staggering incompetence, egregious corruption & America's doomed war in Afghanistan", Salon, by John Rico, October 7, 2015.

Did HTS rationalize Pedophilia in Afghanistan? An HTS explanation of "Man-Boy Love Thursday" may have contributed to the U.S. looking the other way when confronted with "Bacha Bazi" events. Or so says two authors of a recent story about the HTS. Two anthropologists conveniently tie the recent story of the Special Forces NCO getting kicked out of the Army for assaulting an Afghan police officer who was raping a young Afghan to everything that was wrong with the Human Terrain System that provided cultural advice to the U.S. military in Afghanistan. While their writing may be convincing to some it looks to me as another opportunity to attack a very valuable program that provided great results in the Afghan COIN fight. Read their news story (but with a grain of salt) in Counterpunch, October 9, 2015.

Pakistan - Aiding the Taliban . . . Still. If you want to solve the problem of the insurgency in Afghanistan then you must look east to Pakistan. So says Fareed Zakaria - an opinion writer for The Washington Post and also commentator on several other media enterprises. The bottom line is that very few insurgencies are defeated if they have a cross-boarder sanctuary and a powerful patron (that would be Pakistan and Pakistan). Read his article "The key to solving the puzzle of Afghanistan is Pakistan", The Washington Post, October 8, 2015.

Paper Plans and Reality on the Ground. The battle for Kunduz exposed the strategy for the defense of Afghanistan as paper thin. Despite air power, advisors, and intelligence support from the U.S. (and NATO, of course) the Taliban were still able to take a provincial capital and hold it for a number of days. This problem of containing the Taliban goes beyond the development of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) into a professional counterinsurgency force. It has a lot more to do with eradicating the senior ANDSF leadership of corrupt officers. Read more in "Is Kunduz the Beginning of the End for Afghanistan?", by Emile Simpson, Politico, October 4, 2015.

Prospects of Success in Afghanistan? Not so Much. One observer, Patrick Skinner, has a pessimistic view of the situation in Afghanistan. Read "What Endures From Operation Enduring Freedom", The Cipher Brief, October 8, 2015.

Ignatius on Afghanistan. David Ignatius provides us with his opinion of the current state of affairs in Afghanistan and Pakistan in "The U.S. cannot afford to forget Afghanistan and Pakistan", The Washington Post, October 6, 2015.

ISIS in Afghanistan

ISIS versus Taliban. Folks are looking at the competition between the Taliban and the Islamic State and hoping (some are predicting) that they will hurt each other enough that the Afghan government (and its security forces) can solidify its presence in troubled districts. However, not everyone is in agreement that this will be a product of that hostile competition between the two groups. While ISIS is making some progress in Nangarhar province its presence elsewhere in Afghanistan is minimal. While the two groups are at odds with each other they continue to cause severe problems for the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) as well. Read more in "Taliban in Kunduz, ISIS in Nangarhar: Fiefdoms of Conflict in Afghanistan", by Halimullah Kousary, The Diplomat, October 5, 2015.

ISIS Stages Kabul Attack. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) affiliates in Afghanistan claimed responsibility for an attack on a religious congregation hall in Kabul city. Read more in a news report (Khaama Press, Oct 10, 2015).

ISIS and Jalalabad. According to General Campbell, the commander of the Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan, the Islamic State is making a play for control of Jalalabad. This large city in eastern Afghanistan not far from the Pakistan border is the capital of Nangarhar province. It also is the location of a small base of U.S. and NATO forces as well as an important crossroads for trade and commerce with Pakistan. Read more in "The Islamic State is growing in Afghanistan, and has its eyes on a specific city", by Dan Lamothe, The Washington Post, October 6, 2015.

News Article - Mullah Mansour

The new head of the Taliban - Mullah Akhtar Muhammand Mansour - is profiled by Joseph Goldstein in The New York Times (Oct 4, 2015) in this comprehensive news report. Some interesting tidbits - during the Taliban's reign in the late 1990s Mansour was the Chief of Aviation (when the govt had very little planes) and head of the Tourism Department (when there were very little tourists). However, since that time ". . . Mullah Mansour became central to the group's reincarnation as a powerful insurgency that survived NATO offensives to pose a grave threat now to the Western-backed Afghan government." Mansour's status as head of the Taliban has increased with the recent success of the Taliban in occupying a provincial capital (Kunduz City) for the first time since 2001. This should alleviate some of the leadership challenges he faces. He is also heavily supported by Pakistan's intelligence agency which is helping to consolidate his hold on power within the Taliban leadership. Goldstein's article is probably one of the more informative pieces of work on the new head of the Taliban. Read "Taliban's New Leader Strengthens His Hold With Intrigue and Battlefield Victory".