Afghan War Blog

Friday, February 28, 2014

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Thursday, February 27, 2014

Basing U.S. Drones in Central Asia

With the draw down of ISAF forces continuing in Afghanistan and a strong chance of the "zero option" being implemented due to the Bilateral Security Agreement not being signed the U.S. needs to consider where it will base its drones. Certainly without a troop presence at Bagram, Kandahar, or even Jalalabad it would be risky to station drones at those locations. Perhaps the CIA would take more risk than the military but without a minimal troop presence for support and security it is probably not going to happen. That means the U.S. needs to look north for stationing the drones. The drones would be used in the counter terrorist effort to continue to monitor and neutralize the remnants of al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. There are a few Central Asian countries that might be willing to accept the basing and operation of drones (at a price of course). Read more in "Where in Central Asia Would the U.S. Put A Drone Base?", The Bug Pit, February 17, 2014.

Report on Afghanistan - Medecins Sans Frontieres

The humanitarian organization Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) has published a report on Afghanistan entitled "Between Rhetoric and Reality: The ongoing struggle to access healthcare in Afghanistan" dated February 2014. MSF is a medical humanitarian organization that operates under the principles of independence, impartiality and neutrality. MSF has been working in Afghanistan since the early 1980s. MSF left the country in 2004 and returned in 2009 as humanitarian needs had markedly increased along with the deteriorating security conditions. Some of the topics covered in the report include how increased violence has escalated humanitarian needs, the politics of aid in war, "selective storytelling" about the Afghan health system, barriers to access to healthcare (due to war and insecurity, distance, cost, and gaps). You can access the report here on the MSF website (Adobe Acrobat PDF, 56 pages, and 167 MBs big).

www.msf.org/sites/msf.org/files/msf_afghanistan_report_final.pdf

Corps Level Advisor Platform for Afghanistan

In 2014 the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) will implement its shift to "functionally-based Security Force Assistance". With the withdrawal of ISAF troops to minimal levels (possibly 10,000) by the end of the summer there will be less advisors to advise and assist the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). In order to get the most bang for the buck ISAF plans on concentrating on higher level advising schemes - working primarily at the ANA corps and ministry level. The composition of the advisor organization at the corps level is spelled out in something ISAF calls the "Corps Level Advisor Platform". This platform depicts the SFAAT composition of military and civilian advisors and trainers. The SFAAT organization is detailed to include the specific advisor teams and the ranks and military occupational specialties of the advisors on the team. You can view the organization chart of the "Corp Level Advisor Platform" on pages 48-49 of the recently released (January 2014) Security Force Assistance Guide 2.0.

CNA Assessment of ANSF

The Center for Strategic Studies of the Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) was tasked by the United States Congress and directed by the Under Secretary of Defense (Policy) to conduct an independent assessment of the Afghan National Security Forces. This report, dated January 2014, was conducted by a group of CNA analysts who have considerable experience with Afghanistan's security situation.

This comprehensive report provides an executive summary, a summary of assessments, summary of conclusions, threat assessment, ANSF force-sizing framework, assessment of ANSF size, structure, capabilities, posture, and capability gaps. The Ministry of Interior (MoI) and Ministry of Defense (MoD) are assessed for their respective capabilities. There are several appendixes that provide organizational charts, matrix of authorities, model law for Afghan authorities post-2104, acronyms, bibliography, tables, figures, and more.

"The CNA report concludes that the security environment in Afghanistan will be more challenging after the draw-down of international forces in 2014; that the Taliban insurgency will become a greater threat to stability than now; and that a small group of al Qaeda members will remain active in remote valleys of northeastern Afghanistan. We also conclude that the ANSF will require a security force (Afghan National Army and Police) of 373,400 people - smaller than their present size but significantly larger than was envisaged at the 2012 NATO summit in Chicago. A force of lesser size than 373,000 would, in our assessment, increase the risk of instability of Afghanistan and make success less likely for the U.S. policy goal for Afghanistan".

The report, Independent Assessment of the Afghan National Security Forces, is an Adobe Acrobat PDF, 4 MBs big, and 378 pages long. It can be accessed on the CNA website at this link.

Paper - Cultural Intelligence and COIN

A paper has recently been published on Small Wars Journal entitled "Some Recent Approaches to Cultural Intelligence Gathering" dated February 23, 2014. The paper, written by Stephen J. Fallon - a MA Candidate at King's College London, examines the Human Terrain Teams employed by the U.S. military in Iraq and Afghanistan. You can read the report here at this link.

Pakistan Road Blockade May End

The road block against one of the land routes through Pakistan may come to an end shortly. Read more in "Pakistan court orders end to blockade on NATO supply route", Los Angeles Times, February 25, 2014.

Profile of Afghan Presidential Candidates

The Institute of War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) has published an online guide to the eleven Afghan presidential candidates. You can view the candidate profiles in "Afghan Presidential Candidates 2014", IWPR, February 25, 2014.

OSCE and Afghanistan

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has been playing a vital role in Afghanistan's future. The OSCE is providing assistance in the conduct of the Afghan April elections. Read more in "OSCE has important Afghan role to play, U.S. says", UPI, February 25, 2014.

U.S. Continues to Target Haqqani Network

The Haqqani Network, supported by the Pakistan intelligence agency ISI, is receiving increased attention from the United States in the last year of its 'combat deployment' to Afghanistan. Read more in "Eyeing Afghan exit, U.S. intensifies campaign against Haqqani militants", Reuters, February 25, 2014.

Dempsey Says Afghan Forces "Surprisingly Positive"

General Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the past year for the Afghan National Security Forces has been surprisingly positive. He says the Taliban failed to achieve their state objectives of the 2013 fighting season. Read more in "Dempsey: Past Year 'Surprisingly Positive' for Afghan Forces", American Forces Press Service, February 25, 2014.

Interesting Tidbits on Afghan Election

It appears that a free media in Afghanistan is hard at work. The print, radio, TV, and social media are working hard to make some candidates look good and others not so much. Read more in "Afghan notebook: Gold chairs and vodka", BBC News Asia, February 25, 2014.

48th IBCT Georgia Army National Guard

Elements of the 48th Infantry Brigade Combat Team of the Georgian Army National Guard have settled into their roles at Camp Marmal, Regional Command North in Afghanistan. Task Force Norsemen has assumed responsibility for base support at Camp Marmal. Read more in "48th IBCT assumes missions in Afghanistan and Kuwait", DVIDS, February 22, 2014.

Life in Kabul

A short news article provides a glimpse of life in Kabul. Read "From Dawn to Dusk: A day in the life of Kabul", Stars and Stripes, February 19, 2014.

Gallup Poll: More Americans Think Afghan War a Mistake

A recent Gallup poll is reflecting a loss of American support for the Afghan War and more Americans are now believing that the war was a mistake. Americans' perceptions that U.S. involvement in Afghanistan was a mistake grew as the war continued. As of February 2014 49% say the war was a mistake and 48% say it was not. Read the specifics of the Gallup Poll here.

Foreign Detainees at Bagram Pose Vexing Problem

Foreign detainees being held at a Bagram detention facility are posing problems for the United States. The difficulty lies in where to send them as their home countries will either not accept them as prisoners or can't vouch for their future activities. Read more in "US. quietly whittles down foreign detainee population at facility in Afghanistan", The Washington Post, February 25, 2014.

Obama Orders Pentagon to Prepare for Complete Withdrawal From Afghanistan

President Obama has ordered the Pentagon to start developing plans for the "zero option". Read more in "Obama orders Pentagon to prepare for complete withdrawal from Afghanistan", The Washington Post, February 25, 2014.

Marine Corps Logistics Unit of Year in Afghanistan

For the second year in a row, the Redeployment and Retrograde in Support of Reset and Reconstitution Operations Group (R4OG is easier to say) has been named as the Marine Corps' logistics unit of the year. Read a recent news article on this achievement in Marine Corps Times (February 18, 2014).

IDPs in Herat, Afghanistan

Internally Displaced Personnel (IDPs) are presenting short-term and long-term problems to Herat governmental officials and humanitarian agencies. Refugees from some of the central Afghan provinces have left their homes for refugee camps in Herat because of a severe drought. The government has established a program where the IDPs can recover for three months and then return to their homes. However, the IDPs have no plans to leave. And there's the rub. Learn more in "New solutions for Afghanistan's protracted IDPs", IRIN, February 20, 2014.

Keep Up to Date on Afghanistan

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Turkmenistan and Post-2014 Afghanistan

While many eyes are on Afghanistan as it approaches the end of 2014 and enters into an era with no (or very few ISAF) troops some observers are looking at the security situation in Central Asia as a whole. There is concern that the Taliban will grow stronger and the Taliban's influence will spill over the border into countries to the north of Afghanistan. Although many of these countries (commonly called the 'stans) are preparing their military and intelligence organizations for an unsecure future one country seems to be adopting a more passive and neutral approach. Turkmenistan may not be adequately preparing for a post-2014 Afghanistan. Read more in "Turkmenistan: the Achilles Heel of Central Asian Security", Radio Free Europe, February 16, 2014.

China Paying More Attention to Afghanistan

China is concerned about the future of Afghanistan and is hoping for a stabilized situation after the international forces depart in December 2014. China is well-positioned to benefit from economic trade and the access to Afghanistan's natural resources. Read more in "China Increases Focus on Afghanistan", Voice of America, February 24, 2014.

Chechen Terrorists in Afghanistan

A recent news report provides information on the secret fight between U.S. special operations forces and Chechen terrorists aligned with al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Read more in "The Secret Battles Between US Forces and Chechen Terrorists", ABC News, February 19, 2014.

Bilateral Security Agreement between Afghanistan and Australia

Australia and Afghanistan are close to finalizing a bilateral security agreement between the two nations that will allow about 400 Australian soldiers to remain in Afghanistan beyond December 2014. The Afghan defense minister - Bismillah Khan Mohammadi - recently visited Australia for talks on this issue. Australia has provided police mentors, special operations troops, and personnel for the Uruzgan province in central Afghanistan in the past. The 400 personnel in post-2014 would primarily be advisors. Read more in "Australian Troops in Afghanistan Could be Granted Immunity", Radio Free Europe, February 19, 2014.

Obama to Karzai: Time is Running Out on BSA

President Obama had a phone conversation with President Karzai (the Mayor of Kabul) to impress upon him that time is running out for the signing of a Bilateral Security Agreement with the United States. Read more in "Obama gives Karzai warning", DEFCON Hill Blog, February 25, 2014.

Australia's Accomplishments in Afghanistan

A video documentary chronicles Australia's commitment to Afghanistan. It details the deaths, injuries, and money involved in the 12-year long Afghan War. However, the conclusion is not encouraging. Read (view) "Australia in Afghanistan: 12 years of futile efforts", Typewriter.org, February 25, 2014.

SIGAR Continues Watch on Afghan Reconstruction

A news report on the activities of the Special Inspector General for Reconstruction in Afghanistan (SIGAR) provides the operating principles adopted by the agency to ensure that development projects are provided proper oversight. Read more in "Watchdog Taps Contractors for Lessons on Rebuilding Afghanistan", Government Executive, February 18, 2014.

A Look at 'Operational Assessments' in Afghanistan

Commander's (and staffs) are continually trying to assess how well the fight is going in Afghanistan. This quest for answers to their questions covers a broad spectrum of areas. For instance, how well is the information operations structure of ISAF forming the perceptions of the Afghan National Security Forces, what does the population think of the legitimacy of the Afghan government, how well is the Afghan National Army doing in recruiting and retention of its soldiers, are the Afghan security forces winning the fight against the insurgents, and so on. An article about the assessment process in southern Afghanistan provides us with detailed information about how an assessment process can have too much data and be irrelevant. Read "Recognizing Systems in Afghanistan: Lessons Learned and New Approaches to Operational Assessments", by William P. Upshur, Jonathan W. Roginski, and David J. Kilcullen, Prism 3, No. 3, page 87-104. An Adobe Acrobat PDF posted on website of Caerus Associates located at this link.

Daily Newsletter from Afghan War News

163rd MI Battalion Assists Afghans in RC South

In the current environment in Afghanistan U.S. Soldiers are doing a lot less fighting and more advising. This has been the norm since 2012 when the focus of ISAF turned to Security Force Assistance or SFA. As part of that advisory effort the Afghan National Army is provided advice and assistance in a number of functional areas. One of those areas is extremely important - the ability to gather, analyze, process, and distribute intelligence. As every SFA adviser working in Afghanistan knows - intelligence is a key component in conducting operations in a counterinsurgency. The Afghan National Security Forces have not been very adept in conducting intelligence-driven operations; but they are receiving training, advice, and support in this important area. Each of the Afghan corps have a Military Intelligence Kandak (battalion). In Regional Command South the Military Intelligence Kandak of the 205th ANA Corps is advised by elements of the 163rd Military Intelligence Battalion. Read more on the 163rd in "Fort Hood MI battalion more than halfway finished with deployment", Fort Hood Herald, February 19, 2014.

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Videos About Security Force Assistance

The COMISAF Advisory and Assistance Team (CAAT) has produced four videos that help explain the Security Force Assistance (SFA) mission in Afghanistan. The videos are entitled "Mission", "Mindset", "Approach", and "ANSF". The videos provide information on the the new "functionally-based" Security Force Assistance mission that the soon to deploy Security Force Assistance Advisory Teams (SFAATs) will be executing in Afghanistan. The videos can be viewed on the ISAF SFA page on the Ronna Apan website.

SFAAT and 203rd ANA Corps Engineer Kandak Celebrate Anniversary

In the photo to the left are members of the Security Force Assistance Adviser Team (SFAAT) of the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division along with members of the Combat Engineer Kandak (CEK) of the 203rd ANA Corps at Forward Operating Base Thunder in Paktya province, Afghanistan. The occasion was the one year anniversary of the 203rd CEK. The CEKs of the Afghan National Army (ANA) are a relatively new unit fielded in 2013. Many of the members underwent on the job training once the unit completed its basic training at the central training facility. The CEK is primarily a construction unit (vertical and horizontal). Read more news articles about the ANA Combat Engineer Kandaks. (Photo by PFC Dixie Rae Liwanag, February 17, 2014).

Afghanistan: Strong Military but Weak Government - What Should be Done After the Drawdown of Troops

The Council on Foreign Relations Center for Preventive Action has released a Council Special Report entitled "Afghanistan After the Drawdown" (Council Special Report No. 67, November 2013). The report outlines the composition, role, and rationale for the ten thousand U.S. troops that will be stationed in Afghanistan beyond December 2014. The authors recommend a number of steps the United States can and should take to advance its interests during the transition that Afghanistan will undergo through the April elections, transition of all security responsibilities to the Afghan National Security Forces, and the diminishing of foreign aid by international donor nations. Both authors are associated with the RAND Corporation. Seth Jones has a lot of experience with Afghanistan and Keith Crane has worked in the public policy area for years. You can learn more about the publication (view online or download) at this link.

Medical Report: Large Scale Psychological Disorders Among Afghan War Veterans

According to a recently published medical report by the Institute of Medicine a large proportion of veterans who served in Afghanistan and Iraq have at least one psychological disorder and many have more than one. Read more in "The Mental Health Toll of the Long Wars", NextGov.com, February 21, 2014.

ANSF Assessments - CUAT and RASR

One of the critical functions of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is to conduct assessments of the capability of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) to perform their mission across a variety of functional areas to include manning, equipment and training. For a number of years ISAF used the Commander's Unit Assessment Tool (CUAT). In July 2013 ISAF Joint Command (IJC) replaced the CUAT with the Regional ANSF Status Report (RASR). IJC says the RASR replaced the CUAT because the ISAF senior leadership found the CUAT to be "difficult to read, inconsistently applied, and not useful". However the usefulness of the RASR will be called into question as time goes on. When the RASR was implemented in 2013 there were over 50,000 U.S troops in Afghanistan - many of them conducting the Security Force Assistance mission as Security Force Assistance Advisor Teams or SFAATs. Currently (as of February 2014) there are 32,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. If the Bilateral Security Agreement is signed then there will likely be about 10,000 troops available for the counter-terrorism mission and to continue the Security Force Assistance mission past December 2014. However, the advisory footprint would be small concentrating on the ANA corps and ministries (MoI and MoD). An accurate assessment of the ANSF will be problematic at that point. The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has provided a report on the RASR and has some recommendations to ensure a adequate ANSF assessment process is in place for the post-2014 environment. You can read the report entitled "Afghan National Security Forces: Actions Needed to Improve Plans for Sustaining Capability Assessment Efforts", SIGAR 14-33 Audit Report, February 2014 at this link.

Female Counterinsurgents in Afghanistan

An observer of the Afghan conflict notes that there has been an increased deployment of female counterinsurgents in Afghanistan. She points to the Female Engagement Teams (FETs) that were assigned in the later years of the war. This essay assesses the role of the FETs in changing counterinsurgent practice in Afghanistan. The report, written by Charlotte Fraser, was posted on February 22, 2014 on the E-International Relations website at "The Deployment of Female Counterinsurgents in Afghanistan". (Photo by DVIDS US Army).

"Robber Barons Rising" - COIN in Ghazni

Stability Journal: The International Journal of Security & Development has published a new report about Ghazni, Afghanistan. The authors, Matthew P. Dearing and Cynthia Braden have wrote "Robber Barons Rising: The Potential for Resource Conflict in Ghazni, Afghanistan" dated February 18, 2014. The publication is available at this link "Robber Barons Rising". An abstract of the report is below in quotes:

"Security and governance in Ghazni Province, Afghanistan are threatened by resource conflict dynamics: groups focus on exploiting lootable resources in the short term while weak institutions and conflict persists. Elements within the Afghan government and insurgent organizations alike expand their power and influence in this manner. Understanding how criminal organizations operate within the regional political economy is essential to reducing the leverage these networks, associated criminal syndicates, and corrupt government officials have on the community. We proffer three hypothesis for development and stability practitioners to monitor as transition approaches in 2014, as well as recommendations for mitigating the onset of resource conflict in Ghazni as the province experiences a downgrade in foreign security forces. Adopting effective, anti-insurgency policies will be fundamental to mitigating the malicious effects on the population and providing incentives for peace, rather than continuing conflict".

Gen Allen: Remember the Soviet Withdrawal

In a recent seminar conducted by the Stimson Center General John Allen (retired) stated that we need to compare the withdrawal of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan with the upcoming withdrawal of ISAF from Afghanistan. He said that the Afghan government in the first few years after the Soviets left managed to survive with the continued advisory assistance and funding of the Soviets. It was only after aid was cut off that the Afghan regime fell to the Muhjuhadeen. The same fate can possibly happen in the post-2014 period. Of note is that Afghanistan will require about $4 billion a year or more to pay and sustain its large Afghan National Security Forces. Read more in "How not to repeat the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan", USA Today, February 21, 2014.

Coalition for Afghan Democracy: Elections at Risk

The Coalition for Afghan Democracy believes that the Obama administration's 'hands off' approach to the Afghan elections is putting the electoral process at risk. The coalition believes the stakes are high and the elections need US involvement. The US State Department and military are concerned too much involvement by the international community will taint the elections - with the charge of western interference. Read more on the two sides of this issue in "Obama putting Afghan elections at risk?", DEFCON Hill Blog, February 23, 2014.

Applied Network-Centric Warfare and COIN

A recent conference on counterinsurgency held at the University of South Florida exposed the attendees to a number of concepts about COIN. One of these was the introduction of "Network-Centric Warfare" as an alternative to counterinsurgency. Read more in this press release from InRef, LLC dated February 24, 2014 on PRWeb.

3,000 Troop Option in Afghanistan

The White House is considering several options for a continued US military presence in Afghanistan. One option (sometimes referred to as the Biden option) would leave 3,000 US troops in Afghanistan. The specific locations would be the sprawling Bagram Air Field north of Kabul and Kabul itself. Read more in "U.S. examines Afghanistan option that would leave behind 3,000 troops", The Washington Post, February 23, 2014.

Remarks on Taverna du Liban by Expat

An expat who teaches school in Kabul provides us his insight on the effect the bombing of the Taverna du Liban restaurant (January 2014) will have on the expat community. Read "No derailing progress now", Relentlessly Alive, February 8, 2014.

ALP Program Continues to Grow

The Afghan Local Police or ALP continues to extend its reach throughout Afghanistan. The ALP has been recognized as one of the more successful programs that provide security to the Afghan population and that limits the ability of the insurgents to gain more territory and influence in the rural areas of Afghanistan. Recently a village in Logar province - Babus - conducted a shura where it selected a new ALP commander for its local community. Read more in "Afghan Commandos introduce new ALP chief", DVIDS, February 19, 2014.

Abdullah Seeks First Round Victory in Afghan Elections

Abdullah Abdullah, a candidate for the Afghan presidency, hopes to attain a first-round victory in the April 2014 Afghan elections. He was one of several candidates who ran in the 2009 presidential elections. Hamid Karzai, the leading candidate in those elections, did not attain 50% of the vote so a run-off was announced between Karzai and Abdullah - the second runner-up. However, the 2009 elections were marked with massive fraud and corruption and Karzai basically stole the election. Abdullah withdrew from the run-off election as he realized there was no hope of winning a rigged election against Karzai. This time around it is hoped that the upcoming election will be less corrupt. Time will tell. Read more in "Abdullah aims for knock-out blow in Afghan elections", Japan Times, February 19, 2014.

McChrystal: Afghanistan Needs a Continued US Presence

Retired General Stan McChrystal says that Afghanistan needs a continued United States military presence to provide a degree of confidence that the west will not walk away entirely as we did in 1989. He points to the resurgence of al Qaeda in Iraq as a possible outcome in Afghanistan if we adopt the 'zero option'. Read more in "Iraq repeat: US pullout in Afghanistan?", DEFCON Hill Blog, February 21, 2014.

Good War Gone Bad

A pessimistic editorial on the future of Afghanistan is provided in a February 18, 2014 opinion provided by The Post and Courier entitled "The good war gone bad".

Kandahar Airport - Connecting Afghanistan to the World

The United States and other western nations are pumping a lot of money into Afghanistan. A lot of this money seems to get wasted and some of it is shipped out by the suitcase by Hamid Karzai and his cronies to Dubai bank accounts. However, there are some pockets of light that surface from time to time. Gail McCabe provides us with one in her report on the Kandahar International Airport. View a short video by the Pentagon Channel about the airport and the progress being made at the following link. www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEh5w-yF9F8

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Monday, February 24, 2014

C-IED Training for ANSF in RC South

Members of the Afghan National Army's 2nd Brigade, 205th Corps in Regional Command South recently completed two courses on Counter-Improvised Explosive Device (C-IED) topics. One course was on hand-held mine detection equipment and techniques and the second course was on explosive hazard reduction and containment. The presence of IEDs on the battlefield are a major concern of those remaining International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) units still traveling the roads and the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). The course that ran at Camp Eagle, Afghanistan in January 2014 will help the ANSF become more capable in defeating an enemy tactic that represents over 50% of the ANSF casualties in this long-running insurgency against the Afghan government. Read more on the C-IED courses recently conducted at Camp Eagle in "ANA train to defeat Taliban's most deadly weapon: the IED", DVIDS, February 16, 2014. (Photo by CPL Clay Beyersdorfer, Jan 14, RC South).

31st Georgian Light Infantry Battalion - Helmand Province

The country of Georgia has been a very dependent partner and member of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) over the past several years. They operate principally in the Helmand province working alongside U.S. Marines and other coalition countries. Currently the 31st Georgian Light Infantry Battalion is deployed to Helmand - this being their third tour in country. The battalion is part of the task force charged with security of Camp Leatherneck and Camp Bastion. The battalion conducts patrols, mans guard towers, and provides a quick reaction force. Georgian forces have been deploying to Afghanistan since 2004. There are currently two 750-man Georgian battalions in Afghanistan. Georgia is 5th in troop numbers for ISAF behind the United States, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom. Read more in "Marines in Helmand hlep Georgians become fighting force", Stars and Stripes, February 22, 2014.