Peace Talks

Afghan Peace Talks. A listing of news reports and publications about Afghan peace talks is available here: www.afghanwarnews.info/peacetalks.htm

Thematic Dossier by AAN. The Afghanistan Analysts Network or AAN has provided us (dated August 4, 2015) with their Thematic Dossier X: Peace talks and reconciliation which is a comprehensive guide to the history of the Afghan peace talks.

Pakistan and Peace Talks. While the Pakistan government postures to the world about the need for peace talks the Pakistan intelligence service continues support the Taliban in its insurgency against the government of Afghanistan. Most observers see a fracturing of the Taliban leadership in the wake of the announcement that Mullah Omar is now "officially dead". Pakistan says that until the Taliban resolve the leadership question it is unlikely that peace talks will resolve anything. Probably just the way the Pakistanis want things. (VOA News, Aug 9, 2015).

Peace Talks

There are some who are optimistic about the prospects of peace talks with the Taliban. Certainly the regional powers in the area (India, China, and Central Asia) are hoping stability comes to Afghanistan. The jury is out on Pakistan; while that nation is hosting the peace talks it is hard to tell what game it is playing. The President of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, seems intent in pursuing a negotiated settlement. Why not, victory for the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) is far into the future - years.

Two very well-informed observers of Afghanistan have penned an article entitled "Time to Negotiate in Afghanistan: How to Talk to the Taliban", Foreign Affairs, July/August 2015. James Dobbins was the Obama administration's Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan and Carter Malkasian was a political advisor to General Dunford when he was the commander of ISAF.

Peace Talks

There is a lot of uncertainty as to the future of peace talks. A second round was supposed to have begun already (this past Friday) but due to the news of Mullah Omar's death and other factors they have been postponed. It appears that Pakistan - who was hosting the second round of talks - postponed the meeting between the Afghan government representatives and the folks speaking for the Taliban. Some reports indicate that there is an internal conflict among the Taliban commanders - some want to negotiate and others want to keep fighting. This, of course, is while a leadership struggle of the Taliban is underway. According to some news reports, the new leader of the Taliban is not in favor of peace talks. However, not everyone is pessimistic on peace prospects. Read more in "Author Sees Negotiated Settlement in Afghanistan", Gandhara Blog, August 2, 2015.

Peace Process

In his annual Eid message Taliban leader Mullah Omar declared that the current ongoing peace talks are legitimate. But don't get too excited as the Taliban are scoring successes on the battlefield and are unlikely to actually negotiate a settlement. The Taliban leader's response is helpful to Afghan President Ghani who has gone out on a limb in his engagement with Pakistan - giving ample ammunition to many of his critics who believe Pakistan is the root of all evil.

Emily Winterbotham, a research fellow in the International Security Studies Department at RUSI, examines the broad context of the ongoing peace talks in "Afghanistan's Peace Process: A Long Road Ahead", The Diplomat, July 20, 2015.

The next round of peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban representatives will take place in China at the end of the month (July). It is possible that the Afghan government will request a ceasefire. See a news report by ABC News, July 24, 2015.

Split Taliban Camps? The Gandhara Blog has posted an article by Hekmatullah Azamy suggesting the Taliban may be dividing into two camps in a dispute about whether to participate in the peace talks with the Afghan government. Read "The Looming Coup Within the Taliban", July 25, 2015.

Afghan Peace Talks

Not much headway has been made in the peace talks with the Taliban. Unless, of course, you are an optimist. Over the past few months there have been lots of rumors of 'unofficial peace talks' between the Taliban and various entities (China, Pakistan, etc.) but with nothing concrete developing. However, in early July representatives of the Afghan government and the Taliban met in Pakistan for some direct talks (although Taliban spokesmen in Qatar insist the talks were not authorized). The talks will resume after Ramazan. There is very little hope that much will come of this as the Taliban are enjoying success on the battlefield against the ANDSF and it appears that some Taliban groups are opposed to peace talks (Gandhara Blog, Jul 10, 2015) although it appears that Mullah Omar (head of the Quetta Shura) is approving the current peace talks process (Lawfare Blog, Jul 15, 2015).

Michelle Barsa writes on how to fix Afghanistan's broken peace process in an article posted by Foreign Policy (Jul 9, 2015). Halimullah Kousary writes in The Diplomat (Jul 6, 2015) about how Ghani's pivot to Pakistan has fallen flat. On another note, an Afghan university thinks it can teach your way out of a war (Foreign Policy, Jul 1, 2015).

High Peace Council Sidelined

Under the Karzai administration the High Peace Council (HPC) was responsible for peace talks with high-level insurgents and the reintegration of mid- and low-level insurgents. The HPC failed miserably on both counts. While ISAF claimed over 6,000 insurgents were reintegrated  - a close examination would show that much of the money provided to Afghanistan for peace and reintegration efforts were wasted on HPC staff at national, provincial and district levels who never showed for work and on development projects tied to reintegration efforts that usually were provided by corrupt officials to their families and friends. Many of the reintegrated insurgents were really farmers or cronies of corrupt officials provided with an old AK-47 who were looking for the three-month stipend and vocational training offered by the HPC for being reintegrated. Read more in "Afghan president pursues peace with Taliban - his way", Los Angeles Times, March 22, 2015.

Pakistan and Peace in Afghanistan

Pakistan is a major contributor to the insurgent problem in Afghanistan. Pakistan's viewpoint is that it is in perpetual war with India. Pakistan is very worried about a 'second front' developing in the rear so it wants to keep Afghanistan out of India's influence orbit and keep Afghanistan destabilized with the Pakistan proxies (Haqqani Network and other insurgent groups). President Ghani is trying to reassure Pakistan that its fears of a second front are exaggerated in hopes Pakistan will cease support to the Afghan insurgents and bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. There is very little hope in defeating an insurgency with sanctuary in a neighboring country and state sponsorship; so President Ghani's move to appease Pakistan has some merit. However, this approach by Ghani to Pakistan is getting lots of attention.

Pakistan and Peace Talks. The speaker of the upper house of parliament (Afghan), Fazil Hadi Muslimyar, warned President Ghani to be careful about relying on Pakistan to help broker peace talks with the Taliban. He says that he does not ". . . have much faith in Pakistan's honesty over peace talks". Read more in "Afghan lawmaker says wary of Pakistan role in Taliban peace moves", Reuters, March 9, 2015.

"Sliding Under the Pakistan Thumb". The former President of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, also has concerns about Pakistan. The former President says he is worried over Afghanistan's tilt towards Pakistan and Ashraf Ghani's gamble on brokering a peace deal with the Taliban. Read more in "Hamid Karzai: Afghanistan in danger of sliding 'under thumb' of Pakistan", The Guardian, March 9, 2015.

Pakistan: From Meddling to Making Peace. All eyes seem to be watching Pakistan to see if they will stop supporting the Afghan Taliban and help in nudging them towards peace talks with Afghanistan. If anything can help out the beleagured Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police it would be Pakistan NOT providing sanctuary, money, intelligence, and other types of support to its "proxie" guerrillas attacking the ANSF. Read "Seize the day", The Economist, March 7, 2015.

Peace Efforts with Pakistan Raise Questions

Many Afghans are welcoming the attempt by President Ghani to start peace talks with the Taliban. Some say he is taking the right approach by working with Pakistan to get the Taliban to the peace table. After all, it is the Pakistanis that support the Afghan Taliban with sanctuaries, intelligence, financing, and specialized equipment. However, many Afghans are leery of trusting the Pakistanis. They view the recent shift in Pakistan's position regarding the Afghan Taliban as merely a public relations ploy. Some think that President Ghani is giving way too much in return for very little from Pakistan. Read more in "Afghan Peace Efforts Reopen Wounds Over Pakistan", The New York Times, March 8, 2015.

Deal with Taliban?

BBC news is reporting that a possible peace deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban was in the works but fell through. According to the BBC news report the Taliban were offered posts in the new Afghan government. There were hopes to bring in three former high-ranking members of the Taliban into the government. Three ministries were offered as well as the governor posts for three provincial provinces. Read more in "Taliban 'reject offer of Afghan government posts'", BBC News Asia, January 9, 2015.

Paper - Taliban Movement

A new paper by Michael Semple on the Taliban has been published. Semple is a peace practitioner and scholar who focuses on Afghanistan and Pakistan. He is currently a visiting professor at the Institute for the Study of Conflict Transformation and Social Justice at Queen's University Belfast. He previously worked as a political officer for the UN mission and the European Union for Afghanistan. In addition, he was a fellow at Harvard with the Kennedy School's Carr Center for Human Rights Policy.

His report offers insights into the Taliban movement's doctrine, organization, and rhetoric and is intended to inform efforts to end the Taliban violence. This report examines the evolution of the Taliban case for armed struggle and the adjustments the Taliban rhetoricians made to cope with the impending political change in Afghanistan in 2014. It considers how the Taliban might make a case for peace, should they take the political decision to engage in negotiations.

Read "Rhetoric, Ideology, and Organizational Structure of the Taliban Movement", United States Institute of Peace (USIP), January 5, 2015.

Taliban in China for Peace Talks

A Taliban delegation visited Beijing recently for peace talks with Chinese officials. The delegation was led by Qari Din Mohammad - a member of the Taliban political office in Doha. Read more in "Taliban Delegation Holds Talks in China", Radio Free Europe, January 4, 2015.

Taliban Delegation and China

China is emerging as a possible facilitator of peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. According to reports a delegation of Taliban officials recently visited China to meet with Chinese officials. Read more in "Taliban delegation hold talks with Chinese officials on Afghanistan", Khaama Press, January 2, 2015.

India, Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan

Most insurgencies are not ended through military means alone. When we evaluate the effectiveness of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) in conducting coutnerinsurgency - it is unlikely that the Taliban will be defeated. Sure . . . the ANSF can "overmatch" the Taliban on the battlefield when supported by fires and air support ("overmatch" is a favorite phrase of the U.S. military to lead you to believe the ANSF are winning). However, the ANSF can't do effective COIN and are unlikely to defeat the Taliban.

One of two things need to occur to end an insurgency; and many times, both. The first is the root causes of the insurgency need to be identified and addressed and the second is that negotiations with the insurgents need to take place. Afghanistan, being one of the poorest and most corrupt nations in the world, is a long way from being able to provide essential governmental services and good government - therefore it probably can't address the root causes in the near future. The track record for negotiations with insurgents thus far has not been good. Additionally, because the insurgents enjoy the protection of Pakistan, the key to negotiations with the insurgents is Pakistan.

One observer of the South Asian region explains the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan; and further, how India and China are involved and what these two nations can do to aid the negotiation process. Read "Afghanistan should not make a false choice - analysis", Eurasia Review, December 18, 2014.

Peace Talks May Resume

There is a possibility that peace talks may soon resume between the government of Afghanistan and insurgent groups. This is good news to some observers who note that most insurgencies are not won by military means - and many are negotiated settlements. However, negotiations with the Taliban have generally been fruitless. But I suppose attempts should be made. According to a senior member of the Afghan High Peace Council peace talks should start up again in Qatar next week. The Afghan Taliban maintain a contact office in Qatar. Representatives from Pakistan will also be in attendance. The Afghan media report that China may have representatives attending as well; an interesting development. Read more in "Peace Talks with Afghan Taliban Expected to Resume", Gandhara Blog, December 18, 2014.

Peace Talks to Resume?

A recent news report indicates that the Government of Afghanistan may resume peace talks with the Taliban group located in Qatar in the near future. A member of the High Peace Council has provided this information. Pakistan may take part in the talks; which is important as the Pakistanis are supporting the Taliban with money, intelligence, and sanctuaries. (Khaama Press, Dec 16, 2014).

Pakistan and Afghan Peace Prospects

There is a slight increase in the cooperation between Pakistan and the United States. The benefits of this cooperation is supposedly two-fold. The U.S. attacks Taliban targets that oppose the Pakistan regime and the Pakistan military attacks Taliban targets that attack Afghanistan (and the U.S.). How much effort the Pakistani military is actually putting forth in attacking Taliban groups like the Haqqani Network is a matter of conjecture. (I am not optimistic). There is hope that this new era of cooperation will translate into the Pakistani government putting pressure on the Taliban to come to the negotiation table. Read more in "U.S., Pakistan increase cooperation in faint hope of Afghan peace", Reuters, December 10, 2014.

China and Peace Talks

China has been stepping up of late on the economic and diplomatic front with Afghanistan. It appears that China is now willing to help with negotiations to start up a peace process with Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Taliban. However it requires the earnest participation of Pakistan's military (and intelligence agency), the Taliban, and the Afghans. At the moment, China is waiting on a peace plan to be submitted by President Ghani. Read more in "Viewpoint: Can China bring peace to Afghanistan?", BBC News Asia, December 1, 2014.

Afghan High Peace Council

Most counterinsurgencies do not end with a military victory by the insurgents or the counter-insurgents. The majority of insurgencies end with a political settlement. With this in mind many observers push for a political accommodation with the Taliban; but thus far the Taliban have been difficult to negotiate with. In addition, the High Peace Council, the Afghan organization charged with reintegration and reconciliation with the Taliban has been hampered by meddling from Karzai and ill-informed efforts of the United States. Amir Ramin is a member of the Afghan High Peace Council and the deputy chief executive officer of the Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program. He has wrote an online article about the purpose of the High Peace Council, some of the problems plaguing progress in the peace talks, the confusion associated with the function and roles of the High Peace Council, the interference by Karzai with the peace process, and some recommendations for the future. Read more in "Forging Policy for Peace After Karzai", The South Asia Channel - Foreign Policy, November 21, 2104.

OXFAM - Women Frozen Out of Peace Process

According to OXFAM International Afghan women continue to be excluded from the peace negotiations and formal talks about the country's future. Unless this trend is reversed peace will be unsustainable. OXFAM has released a new report called "Behind Closed Doors" that states women are frozen out of the process. The report looks back over the timeline of past peace negotiations. There is worry that the US and its allies will disengage from the peace process - lessening the leverage on the Afghan government to advance women's rights. The report provides some recommendations to advance the cause of women in general and to accelerate the peace process. One recommendation is the participation of women on the High Peace Council. Read "Behind Closed Doors", OXFAM, November 2014.

Stalemate in Afghanistan

A veteran diplomat who served as the State Department's special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan and is now a senior fellow at the RAND Corporation, provides his comments on the current stalemate in Afghanistan in "Afghanistan After America: A Fragile Stability", The RAND Blog, November 14, 2014.