Afghanistan - The Road to Peace

Tamim Asey, a fellow at the Asia Society, has penned an article presenting us with his thoughts on the way forward for peace in Afghanistan. He says the newly elected leaders of Afghanistan have an opportunity to "reset and reinvigorate the Afghan peace process" in a more organized and systematic way. He also identifies some issues to be considered - such as "Who are the Taliban?", the need for a clear roadmap, formation of a government commission with a clear mandate, the role of Pakistan, decrease funding from Gulf states, the role of China, Iran's support of insurgents, and other important issues. Read more in "Afghanistan's Complex Peace Calculus", The Diplomat, November 10, 2014.

China as Negotiator?

China has been slowly taking a more active role in the affairs of Afghanistan. It has some vital interests in the establishment of a secure and stable Afghanistan. Its pursuit of an economic corridor (call it the New Silk Road?) from China, across Central Asia, and into the Middle East and Europe is seen as good for the export of Chinese goods. It is experiencing problems with a jihadist insurgent group (East Turkestan Islamic Movement) in its most western province of Xinjiang (which shares a border with Afghanistan) and China wants to preclude this group from enjoying sanctuary in Afghanistan's remote and ungovernable regions. To that end China appears to be willing to take an active role in the conduct of peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Read more on this topic in "Could China Broker Talks Between the Afghan Government and the Taliban?", The Diplomat, November 12, 2014.

Peace Talks with Taliban

A writer provides his opinion on holding peace talks with the Taliban. Jack Fairweather seems to think that holding talks with the Taliban and letting them rule parts of the rural south would be a good thing. Learn more in "Give the Taliban a Chance", New York Times Opinion Pages, November 11, 2014.

Report - Women and Peace Building in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is one of four Oxfam country programs delivering Within and Without the State (WWS) program. It is funded by the United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID) from 2011 to 2016 under the Conflict, Humanitarian and Security Programme Partnership Arrangement (CHASE PPA). WWS is piloting innovation approaches to working with civil society to promote more accountable governance in conflict-affected and fragile contexts. The paper shares the program learning within Oxfam and the wider development community. In Afghanistan, WWS has been working to build the capacity of civil society and to promote the participation of women, youth, and other marginalized groups in the peace process. Essential to this is the ability of women to engage with power-holders to share their views of what peace means to them and to influence change at the community, district, provincial, and national levels. Read Women and Inclusive Peace Building in Afghanistan, Oxfam Programme Insights, October 2014.

Peace Day Celebrated in Afghanistan

"Peace Day" was celebrated on September 21st around the world. Afghanistan, not be be the exception, also held events across the country to celebrate peace. Read more in "Peace Day celebrated in events across Afghanistan", United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), September 22, 2014.

High Peace Council in Talks with Taliban

The Afghan High Peace Council is in talks with a Taliban faction based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Talks with the Taliban are problematic for many reasons. One is the sincerity of the Taliban - there has never been any demonstrated gains as a result of negotiations with the Taliban. A second factor is that there is always a question of whether the individual or group representing the Taliban . . . are really representing the Taliban. Read more in "Afghan Peace Council Confirms Talks with Taliban Faction", Radio Free Europe, February 22, 2014.

Afghanistan's High Peace Council to Meet with Taliban

Reports indicate that Afghanistan's High Peace Council will meet with Taliban officials in Dubai to discuss the prospects for peace talks. A senior aid to Karzai is meeting with the current and former Taliban officials. For years the Taliban have refused to meet with Karzai - stating that he was a powerless puppet under the protection of the United States. With Karzai demonstrating his independence from the west perhaps he has changed the perception the Taliban have of him. Thus far, peace talks between the United States and the Taliban have yielded very little. Read more in "Afghan peace team seeks Dubai meeting with Taliban figures", Reuters, February 17, 2014.

Afghan High Peace Council Blames US for Insecurity in Afghanistan

The Afghan High Peace Council has released a statement saying that the United States is a source of insecurity in Afghanistan and that the U.S. martyred Osama bin Laden. The High Peace Council is made of a number of influential politicians, statesmen, academics, business leaders, government appointees, and even former (or maybe current) Taliban members. Thus far it has been relatively ineffective in negotiating with the Taliban and has a dismal record of implementing the reintegration program. Powerful words from an organization appointed by Karzai to represent Afghanistan in peace talks with the Taliban. Time for the "Zero Option"? Read a news post on this topic in the "Threat Matrix" (Feb 13, 2014).

RAND Paper - Historical Lessons Negotiating with Insurgencies

RAND Corporation has published a paper entitled "From Stalemate to Settlement: Lessons for Afghanistan From Historical Insurgencies That Have Been Resolved Through Negotiations", By Colin R. Clarke and Christopher Paul, dated February 2014. The paper, a research project, examines 13 historical cases of insurgencies that were resolved through negotiated settlement in which neither side unambiguously prevailed. Negotiations with the Taliban have been less than fruitful thus far. The cases presented in the paper reveal that the path to negotiated settlement generally proceeds in several steps. The findings could serve as an important tool to guide the progress in resolving the Afghan conflict through negotiations as the U.S. and ISAF forces withdraw. You can read or download the RAND document online on the RAND web site at this link - www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR469.html

Afghan High Peace Council Applauds Talks between Pakistan and TTP

The Afghan High Peace Council has welcomed news that peace talks have begun between the government of Pakistan and the Pakistan Taliban. For those who are unaware the Pakistan Taliban are the "bad Taliban" and the Afghan Taliban are the "good Taliban" - at least from the perspective of the Pakistani intelligence service. Read more in "Afghan Peace Council Praises Pakistan Talks", Radio Free Europe, February 7, 2014.

Karzai Secretly Talking With the Taliban

News reports are coming out that Karzai has been secretly talking with the Taliban over the past several months. The peace talks have not involved western allies (including the United States). Karzai has been behaving strangely lately - releasing hardened Taliban members from detention and refusing to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement. Perhaps his secret talks with the Taliban explains those actions. Read more in "Karzai Arranged Secret Contacts With the Taliban", The New York Times, February 3, 2014.

Karzai Insists U.S. Talk Peace With Taliban

President Karzai never seems to stop surprising us.We should be used to it by now. Karzai now says that the U.S. must start peace talks with the Taliban first before he will sign the Bilateral Security Agreement. Karzai said that not including the Taliban as part of the Afghan government will ensure that it will be weak in the future.(Not sure it can get any worse than it is now). I would think by now that we know we won't get Karzai to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement. Any deadlines that we established has come and gone. Now our State Department is saying it needs to be signed "in weeks not months". I guess that means it needs to be signed in 16 weeks - after the Afghan presidential election held in April. Or maybe in 26 weeks after the run-off for the Presidential election. Hmmmmm. Read more in "Hamid Karzai toughens stance on Afghanistan security deal with US", The Guardian, January 25, 2014.

Commentator Questions Negotiations with Taliban

An opinion piece in Commentary Magazine by Michael Rubin questions the United States desire to negotiate in peace talks with the Taliban. He says that the Taliban are not insurgents; that they are terrorists and he cites the recent bombing of an Afghan restaurant that killed 21 non-combatants as proof. Read more in "Yes, the Taliban Are Terrorists" published January 19, 2014.

Taliban: No Peace Talks with U.S.

The Taliban have once again rejected peace talks with the United States. The White House recently issued a statement that it wants to negotiate with the Taliban. The Taliban published a statement on its website Voice of Jihad. In the statement the Taliban demands that the United States leaves Afghanistan or else face continued attacks against its forces in Afghanistan. The United States has been unsuccessful in negotiating with the Taliban for the past five years. Read more in "Afghan Taliban reject US call for peace talks", The Long War Journal, January 19, 2014.

Afghan Govt Stance on Peace Talks

There is a lot of discussion about what the Afghans want to accomplish in the stalled peace talks with the Taliban. This is difficult to ascertain based on conflicting statements and actions by Afghan government officials. One key document does shed light on the Afghan government approach. It is the "Peace Process Roadmap to 2015" released by the High Peace Council in November 2012. The document starts with a vision of what the political environment looks like in 2015, outlines a five-step approach to the peace talks to reach that vision, and provides some principles that need to be followed during the conduct of the peace talks. The insurgency will not be beaten by ISAF prior to its departure in December 2014. There is little hope that the Afghans security forces will be able to beat the Taliban in some of their strongholds in parts of the east and south (Kunar, Nuristan, Helmand, and Nangarhar). So the peace talks with the Taliban are key to resolving the conflict.

U.K, Afghan, and Pakistan Officials Gather for Peace Talk Coordination

Officials from Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the United Kingdom gathered in London recently to coordinate future peace talks with the Taliban. In the past the three nations had been at odds as to how to encourage the Taliban into reconciliation talks and who was to have a leading role in the peace talk discussions. Reportedly this latest meeting held in the UK helps smooth over some of the differences. Read more in "David Cameron invites Taliban to talks over Afghanistan's future", The Guardian, February 4, 2013.

Peace Talks with Taliban Still Stalled

There is a renewed effort to engage the Taliban in peace talks. The withdrawal of Western nations from the fight over the next two years and the acknowledgment that the insurgency will not be defeated by the Afghan security forces has worried many who are concerned about regional stability in the area. Thus the push for reaching an agreement with the Taliban through a reconciliation process.

The biggest hindrance to an agreement with the Taliban is . . . of course, the Taliban. They are and can afford to play a waiting game. In December 2014 the United States will have between zero to 10,000 troops in Afghanistan. That is not a lot of combat power. Foreign aid to the government of Afghanistan will shrink. The oversight on what aid does go to Afghanistan will be administered by corrupt Afghan government officials. At the moment the Taliban refuse to negotiate with President Karzai and the High Peace Council stating they are puppets of the United States. Why should the Taliban agree to a political framework that includes them when they feel they can have it all in a few years?

Another constraint are the major players in the proposed peace agreement - Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and the Western powers. Each nation(s) has their own concept of a post-war political settlement for Afghanistan. Pakistan has the most to gain and lose as a chaotic Afghanistan is in their backyard. Pakistan is hedging and playing both sides of the fence - taking part in peace talks on one hand and then providing supplies, intelligence, support, and sanctuary to insurgent groups on the other.

Read more about the problems associated with proposed peace talks in "Renewed Push for Afghans to Make Peace With Taliban", The New York Times, February 16, 2013.

www.nytimes.com/2013/02/17/world/asia/pressure-for-peace-with-taliban-is-renewed.html

Factors to Consider for Peace in Afghanistan

A recent news article wrote by Edward Girardet for The Christian Science Monitor entitled "5 factors for peace in Afghanistan" provides us with some insight on how to conduct a successful reconciliation with the Taliban. The five factors include:

1. All Afghans must be represented
2. Peace talks must be Afghan-led and US-backed
3. Talks must be transparent
4. Talks should be overseen by a neutral, non-NATO country
5. The West cannot abandon Afghanistan

Hezb-i-Islami Suspends Afghan Peace Talks

The Afghan insurgent group named Hezb-i-Islami has formally suspended its involvement in the Afghan peace talk process. This recent action underscores the fragility of the peace talks on the Afghan War. Hezb-i-Islami (or the Islamic Party) is headed by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar - a once powerful warlord, mujaheddin from the Soviet occupation era, and former Afghan prime minister. Read more in "Second Afghan Insurgent Group Suspends Peace Talks", The New York Times, March 29, 2012.

Negotiating a Political Settlement in Afghanistan - Report by International Crisis Group (ICG)

The International Crisis Group (ICG) based in Brussels has released a report that is very critical of the current negotiations being held (or not being held) with the Afghan insurgents. The ICG believes that peace talks are extremely important if there is to be "any chance of delivering sustainable peace in Afghanistan". The recent report is entitled "Talking about Talks: Toward a Political Settlement in Afghanistan", Asia Report No 221, 26 Mar 2012.

Read the ICG press release about the report here "Toward a Political Settlement in Afghanistan", ICG, 26 March 2012. The actual report can be read or downloaded here in Adobe Acrobat PDF format - "Talking about Talks: Toward a Political Settlement in Afghanistan". Learn more about the Afghan peace talks and read recent news articles on the Afghan reconciliation process.