Peace Efforts with Pakistan Raise Questions

Many Afghans are welcoming the attempt by President Ghani to start peace talks with the Taliban. Some say he is taking the right approach by working with Pakistan to get the Taliban to the peace table. After all, it is the Pakistanis that support the Afghan Taliban with sanctuaries, intelligence, financing, and specialized equipment. However, many Afghans are leery of trusting the Pakistanis. They view the recent shift in Pakistan's position regarding the Afghan Taliban as merely a public relations ploy. Some think that President Ghani is giving way too much in return for very little from Pakistan. Read more in "Afghan Peace Efforts Reopen Wounds Over Pakistan", The New York Times, March 8, 2015.

Musharraf: Pakistan Cultivated the Taliban

Former Pakistan president Musharraf admitted that Pakistan "cultivated" the Taliban amid fears that former president Karzai was under the influence of the Indian government. He saw the ISI support of the Taliban as a counter to the heavily Tajik-dominated Afghan government. With the recent election of President Ashraf Ghani he hopes that ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan can improve and that India's influence in Afghanistan will diminish. Read more in "Musharraf: Pakistan and India's backing for 'proxies' in Afghanistan must stop", The Guardian, February 13, 2015.

Sec Kerry and Pakistan Meeting

Secretary of State Kerry is visiting Pakistan and conducting a series of meetings on a number of issues. Although there is no big news in his published statements (all the good stuff said is behind closed doors) you can read his remarks here. See "Remarks at the U.S.-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue Ministerial", U.S. Department of State, January, 2015.
www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2015/01/235876.htm

You can also read a report about his visit in "Kerry Urges Pakistan to Fight Militants, Mend India Ties", Radio Free Europe, January 13, 2015.
www.rferl.org/content/kerry-pakistan-visit-/26790798.html

Pakistan: Waiver or Certification?

In order for the United States to provide financial aid to Pakistan the State Department has to certify that Pakistan is doing what is mandated by US law. Certification means that Pakistan is combating terrorism and is going after the Haqqani Network, the Quetta Shura and other terrorist or insurgent groups found within its borders. If "certification" is not provided then the State Department can provide a "waiver". Either way, the U.S. provides the financial aid and Pakistan can continue to support the insurgent groups conducting operations against the Coalition (including U.S. troops) and the Afghan National Security Forces. Since 9/11 the U.S. has provided Pakistan with $28 billion. Read more in "Money for nothing & weapons for free", Economic Times (India),  January 7, 2015.

Pakistani Balochs in Afghanistan

Some Balochs from Pakistan are seeking refuge in Afghanistan. There is a small insurgency in the Balochistan province of Pakistan that has been simmering for years. The Balochs are mostly nomads and are spread out among three countries - Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan. The terrain and geography makes it a desolate place providing little economic opportunity. Most make their living from migratory animal husbandry and some smuggling. The Balochs have been at odds with the central Pakistani government since Pakistan gained its independence. There have been a number of attempts at independence and several insurgent movements. Many Balochs flee to Pakistan to avoid persecution by Pakistani security forces. Most Pakistani Balochs move to Nimroz province, Afghanistan where the majority of the population is also Baloch. Read more in "Pakistani Balochs seeking shelter in Afghanistan - analysis", Eurasia Review, January 4, 2015.

Afghan - Pak Deal on Taliban

It is common knowledge that Pakistan harbors, supports, and aids the insurgent groups that attack U.S., ISAF, and Afghan security forces in Afghanistan. Some speculate, and Pakistan accuses, that Afghanistan returns the favor. In effect, Pakistan's military and intelligence service supports the Afghan Taliban (so-called "good Taliban") while (supposedly) Afghanistan's National Directorate of Security (NDS) provides support (or at least turns a blind eye) to the Pakistan Taliban (so-called "bad Taliban"). The terms "good" and "bad" are from the Pakistani perspective. There is hope that with a new Afghan President and new leader in Pakistan (and the end of the ISAF mission) that this situation will improve. Read more in "An opening in Afghanistan: Kabul's deal with Pakistan", New York Post, December 28, 2014.

Afghanistan & Strategic Autonomy

A news article provides us with a look at how Afghanistan can become more independent, secure, and stable in a  post-2014 environment. Read "Afghanistan's quest for strategic autonomy", LiveMint.com, December 24, 2014.

Pakistan Making Progress Against Militants

Julia Thompson, writing for Foreign Policy Magazine, says that the Taliban attack on the military children's school in Peshawar, Pakistan ". . . obscures the fact that Pakistan's military has been making progress against the country's militants." Read more in "A Small Measure of Progress" (December 22, 2014).

COMISAF & Afghans visit Pakistan

Top Afghan and U.S. generals have visited Pakistan this week to address anti-terrorism efforts with Pakistan's army chief General Raheel Sharif. The meeting was focused on military coordination on both sides of the border. Read more in "US, Afghan Generals in Islamabad for Border Security Talks", Voice of America, December 23, 2014.

Pakistan to Execute Hundreds of Terrorists

Pakistan says it will begin executing nearly 500 prisoners convicted on terrorism-related charges in the coming weeks. The moratorium was imposed by Pakistan in 2008. The New York-based Human rights Watch (HRW) has called on Pakistan to immediately stop the execution of the death-row terrorists (of course). Read more in "Pakistan to Execute Hundreds of Terror Convicts", Gandhara Blog - Radio Free Europe, December 2, 2014.

CIA Continues to Assist Pakistan

Shuja Nawaz, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center, writes an opinion about the CIA and the help it provides Pakistan in fighting terrorism. In 2011, the Central Intelligence Agency and the ISI (Pakistan's intel service), were not on speaking terms. However, there is a thaw in the air and some collaboration is taking place. According to Nawaz, the atmosphere can improve if the CIA would only try to understand ". . . Pakistan's aspirations and fears." (Hmmmm.) He says that the CIA ". . . should attempt to broaden its official relationships inside Pakistan to strengthen the country's civilian intelligence bureau and the newly formed National Counter Terrorism Authority." Yep. Work more closely with the ISI - the same organization from a country that sheltered Osama bin Laden, keeps Mullah Omar safe, and provides support and sanctuary to the Afghan Taliban. Read more in his opinion piece in The New York Times, December 21, 2014.

Backgrounder: Taliban

Zahid Hussain provides us with a backgrounder on the Taliban's re-emergence since 2001 on both sides of the Durand line. Hussain is the author of Frontline Pakistan: The Struggle with Militant Islam and several other books and journal contributions. He is currently a columnist for Pakistan's daily Dawn newspaper and is a former correspondent for the Times of London and the Wall Street Journal. From 2011 to 2012 he was the Pakistan Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. His extensive and informative article is entitled "The Taliban Question", The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, October 19, 2014.

Revisit Afghan Endgame

Bruce Riedel, writing for Brookings, provides us with his opinion on what is to be done in Afghanistan. He says that President Obama's decision to publicly lay out his timeline for ending American troop involvement in Afghanistan was a mistake. Riedel also informs us that Pakistan needs to be pressured to end its support to the Taliban.

"But the real problem has not changed: Pakistani support for the Taliban insurgency. Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI, has been providing the Taliban with safe haven and sanctuary in Pakistan for over a decade. The ISI participates directly in planning Taliban operations and target selection against Nato and Afghan targets. It helps arm and fund the Taliban and assists its fundraising efforts in the Gulf states".

Riedel concludes with a recommendation that the withdrawal from Afghanistan should be event driven and not time driven; that Obama should revisit his timeline and endgame. In addition, he thinks that India should step up and assist Afghanistan more than it does and that real pressure needs to be applied to Pakistan to stop their support of the Afghan Taliban. Read his article in "Revisit Afghanistan's End Game Plan", Brookings, December 15, 2014.

Paper - Pakistan's Posture toward Afghanistan

Khalid Homayun Nadira has wrote an academic paper about the Pakistan posture towards Afghanistan. Pakistan has followed competing courses of action in regard to Afghanistan. In some respects it is working with the United States to transport equipment and material along its LOCs, allowing aircraft to overfly its territory, and allowing drone attacks (in some cases). However, its intelligence agency and parts of its military work with the Taliban opposed to the Afghan government; providing sanctuary, information, money, and equipment. Nadira's paper attempts to explain the multifaceted approach of Pakistan. Read "Old Habits, New Consequences: Pakistan's Posture Toward Afghanistan since 2001", International Security, Fall 2014, Vol 39, No. 2, Pages 132-168, posted online November 21, 2014, MIT Press Journal. Read abstract below:

"Since September 11, 2001, Pakistan has pursued seemingly incongruous courses of action in Afghanistan. It has participated in the U.S. and international intervention in Afghanistan at the same time as it has permitted much of the Afghan Taliban's political leadership and many of its military commanders to visit or reside in Pakistani urban centers."

Fair: Explains Politics Behind Pak School Attack

Dr. Christine Fair, Assistant Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, explains the politics behind the December 16th, 2014 attack on the military-run children's school in Peshawar, Pakistan. 145 people were killed in the attack, including 132 children. The Pakistani civilian and military leaders vowed to attack the Taliban of all types but there is deep skepticism about that promise. The interview of Dr. Fair is by The Diplomat, is about 12 minutes long, and helps explain the difference between the "Good Taliban" and the "Bad Taliban". Posted on YouTube by The Diplomat.

http://youtu.be/-ah7oj5CmPo

Pakistan's Ties to Militant Groups

While Pakistan is suffering from attacks from Taliban militants it is - at the same time - supporting Taliban militants attacking Afghanistan. The Pakistanis are outraged when over 100 people are killed in a Pakistani schoolhouse (rightly so). Yet Pakistan is strangely silent when a suicide bomber belonging to a Taliban group supported by Pakistan kills over 80 people (some children) at a volleyball match in Afghanistan. Read more in "Pakistan's ties to militant groups complicates its terrorism fight", Los Angeles Times, December 19, 2014.

Pakistan's False Narrative

The United States has spent over $28 billion in aid to Pakistan in an effort to assist the Pakistani government and military to confront the Taliban operating in their country. Unfortunately, despite protestations otherwise, the Pakistani's are very selective on which Taliban groups they attack. Read more in "America's $28-Billion Failure in Pakistan", The Atlantic, December 19, 2014.

India, Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan

Most insurgencies are not ended through military means alone. When we evaluate the effectiveness of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) in conducting coutnerinsurgency - it is unlikely that the Taliban will be defeated. Sure . . . the ANSF can "overmatch" the Taliban on the battlefield when supported by fires and air support ("overmatch" is a favorite phrase of the U.S. military to lead you to believe the ANSF are winning). However, the ANSF can't do effective COIN and are unlikely to defeat the Taliban.

One of two things need to occur to end an insurgency; and many times, both. The first is the root causes of the insurgency need to be identified and addressed and the second is that negotiations with the insurgents need to take place. Afghanistan, being one of the poorest and most corrupt nations in the world, is a long way from being able to provide essential governmental services and good government - therefore it probably can't address the root causes in the near future. The track record for negotiations with insurgents thus far has not been good. Additionally, because the insurgents enjoy the protection of Pakistan, the key to negotiations with the insurgents is Pakistan.

One observer of the South Asian region explains the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan; and further, how India and China are involved and what these two nations can do to aid the negotiation process. Read "Afghanistan should not make a false choice - analysis", Eurasia Review, December 18, 2014.

Pakistan ISI Support Backfires?

Columnists are focused on Pakistan in light of the massacre of school children by the "Bad Taliban" (Tehriki-i-Taliban Pakistan). One observer asks if the Pakistan ISI support for the "Good Taliban" has backfired. Read more in "Peshawar school attack: Has Pakistan ISIS 'secret support for Taliban' backfired?", International Business Times, December 16, 2014.

CFR - "Behind Pakistan's Taliban War"

Daniel S. Markey, a Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia for the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), is interviewed on the topics of Pakistan, the "Good Taliban", and what the future holds in light of the recent killings of over 100 school children in Pakistan. Read "Behind Pakistan's Taliban War", Council on Foreign Relations, December 17, 2014.