Hundreds Killed at Pakistan School

Over one hundred people, mostly children, were killed by Pakistani Taliban in a school in Peshawar. Some reports say that as many as 126 people were killed. There were about 500 people in the school when the attack began. Reports indicate that there were five or six attackers. A spokesman for a faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) said that the attackers were ordered to shoot older students. The attack was initiated with two explosions.

Ex-ISI Chief Talks about Afghanistan

The former head of the Pakistan Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), General Hamid Gul, has stated that the Taliban-led insurgency will continue to persist if U.S. forces remain in Afghanistan. Gul said that the complete withdrawal of US forces is the foremost prerequisite for peace in Afghanistan. He also stated that the Afghan people will never tolerate occupation of their land and will continue to fight back. Of course, it is well-known that the ISI is a major supporter of the Haqqani Network and other anti-Afghan government insurgent groups; so his remarks are not a surprise. Read more in "Insurgency to continue if US forces stay in Afghanistan: Ex-ISI chief", Khaama Press, December 14, 2014.

The Riddle of Pakistan

If there is one thing that can be admired about the now-departed President Karzai it is his constant criticism of the United States for not doing enough to eliminate the Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan. It is difficult to defeat an insurgency if it receives constant support from a neighboring nation (that would be Pakistan). Some see the recent visit by President Ghani as an indication that relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan will improve and Pakistan's support for the Taliban may subside. Wishful thinking! Read more in "Explaining Pakistan's Confidence", by Myra MacDonald, War on the Rocks, December 10, 2014.

Pakistan and Afghan Peace Prospects

There is a slight increase in the cooperation between Pakistan and the United States. The benefits of this cooperation is supposedly two-fold. The U.S. attacks Taliban targets that oppose the Pakistan regime and the Pakistan military attacks Taliban targets that attack Afghanistan (and the U.S.). How much effort the Pakistani military is actually putting forth in attacking Taliban groups like the Haqqani Network is a matter of conjecture. (I am not optimistic). There is hope that this new era of cooperation will translate into the Pakistani government putting pressure on the Taliban to come to the negotiation table. Read more in "U.S., Pakistan increase cooperation in faint hope of Afghan peace", Reuters, December 10, 2014.

India, Pakistan: Secret War for Afghanistan

Parviz Azizi has wrote an interesting column entitled "Pakistan, India, and the Secret War for Afghanistan", Geopolitical Monitor, December 2, 2014. He outlines Pakistan's and India's interests in and perspectives on Afghanistan. In addition, he provides us with his view of the future outlook.
www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/pakistan-india-secret-war-afghanistan/

Afghan Covert Opns in Balochistan

A recent news article provides some insight into the covert operations that the Afghans are running into Pakistan. Of course, it may not be an "official" Afghan intelligence operation" - but at least it is something! According to the article there is a covert war between Afghan intelligence agents and Taliban militants in the southwestern Pakistani province of Balochistan. The fight is between the Adozai supporters of General Abdul Raziq (the provincial chief of police for Kandahar province) and the Afghan Taliban who have sanctuary in Balochistan. Islamabad has always denied that the Afghan Taliban seek refuge in this area of Pakistan; but WE know they are there! Read more in "Pakistani Leader Says Covert War Destabilizing Province", Gandhera Blog - Radio Free Europe, December 2, 2014.

Operation Zarb-e-Azb

Operation Zarb-e-Azb, or "Strike of the Prophet's Sword", was mounted by the Pakistan military to dislodge terror groups located in North Waziristan - a remote and ungoverned region located near the Afghan border. This area was ignored by the Pakistan military so the recent operation was welcomed by the ISAF coalition and Afghanistan. Unfortunately, many suspect that the targets were the "Bad Taliban" and not the "Good Taliban". The operation was "telegraphed" so that many of the terrorists and insurgents ("good" and "bad") fled to other areas of Pakistan or Afghanistan. Some reports indicate that the "good Taliban" were warned ahead of time by the Pakistan intelligence service and even assisted with relocation ahead of the operation. Read more in "A Rare Glimpse Inside Pakistan's Anti-Taliban Operation in North Waziristan", NBC News, November 22, 2014.

Pakistan Taliban Group Pledges to ISIS

A splinter group of Pakistan's Taliban has pledged support to the Islamic State (IS). Read more in "Pakistan Taliban splinter group vows allegiance to Islamic State", Reuters, November 18, 2014.

Pakistan-Afghan Relations Improve?

President Ghani is optimistic about his recent trip to Pakistan. He says significant progress was made in developing close economic relations and strengthening joint efforts against terrorism. There was no mention in the news report about the Pakistan support to the Taliban. Read more in "Progress Declared in Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations", Voice of America, November 15, 2014.

Ghani Visits Pakistan

The new Afghan President has conducted a two-day visit to neighboring Pakistan in hopes of an enhanced political, security and economic cooperation. The Pakistan Army and its intelligence service (ISI) supports the Taliban insurgency that has sanctuary in Pakistan and operates in Afghanistan. Hopefully some progress will be made during Ghani's visit in this regard. Read more in "Afghan President Ghani Visits Pakistan", Voice of America, November 14, 2014.

Ghani to Visit Pakistan

President Ghani will soon visit Pakistan. There is optimism that his trip will garner some cooperation from Pakistan on a number of issues. The most important obstacle to good relations between the two countries is the Pakistan intelligence service's active support of several Taliban insurgent groups that have sanctuary in Pakistan and attack targets in Afghanistan. The multidimensional agenda for the visit includes the topics of security, economic cooperation, trade, and investment. Read more in "Optimism Ahead of Afghan Leader's Visit to Islamabad", Voice of America, November 12, 2014.

Pakistan Offers Army Training

Pakistan, a neighboring country of Afghanistan that supports the Taliban through its intelligence service, has offered to train Afghan officers in Pakistan. Interesting. Read more in "Pakistan offers to train Afghan National Army officers", Central Asia Online, November 7, 2014.

Commentary - Eyes Wide Shut

The nations of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and China are holding yearly meetings addressing some of the security, economic, and development issues that affect the relationships between the three nations. The short conferences (a couple of days) are held to discuss the current security and political situation in Afghanistan and its implications for neighboring countries. Members of the countries respective governments, strategic analysts, academicians, and diplomats attend the conference. The latest conference was held in Pakistan. Read a commentary on the issues addressed and the recommendations put forward by conference participants in "China, Afghanistan and Pakistan Dialogue: Eyes Wide Shut? - Analysis", Euroasia Review, November 1, 2014.

Pakistan Objects to Pentagon Report

Pakistan is objecting to a recent report released at the end of October entitled the Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, DoD 1230 Report, October 2014. In the report the Pentagon states that the Taliban insurgent groups enjoy sanctuary in Pakistan (no big secret, everyone knows this) and that Pakistan is not quite doing enough to shut down the sanctuaries. What isn't quite spelled out in the report in plain language is the fact that Pakistan's intelligence service (ISI) is actively supporting the insurgent groups (especially the Haqqani Network) with money, training, and other types of support. The two excerpts below are from page 95 of the report cited above.

"Taliban attacks in Afghanistan launched from sanctuaries in Pakistan remain a serious problem. These sanctuaries exist primarily in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Baluchistan." 

"Afghan- and Indian-focused militants continue to operate from Pakistan territory to the detriment of Afghan and regional stability. Pakistan uses these proxy forces to hedge against the loss of influence in Afghanistan and to counter India’s superior military. These relationships run counter to Pakistan's pubic commitment to support Afghan-led reconciliation. Such groups continue to act as the primary irritant in Afghan-Pakistan bilateral relations".

Iran and Pakistan Destabilize Afghanistan

The Pentagon's latest assessment on security in Afghanistan has criticized Iran and Pakistan - stating that both countries are destabilizing regional security by supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan. Read more in "Pentagon Says Policies of Iran, Pakistan Destabilize Afghan Security", Radio Free Europe, November 5, 2014.

Good Taliban Killed; Pakistan Unhappy

Pakistan is very supportive of U.S. drone strikes (CIA I would think) striking the "bad Taliban". The "bad Taliban" would be the ones who are opposing the Pakistan regime. It seems that one of our drones hit the "good Taliban" (the ones that the Pakistan intelligence service arms, equips, trains, and provides sanctuary to and that attack the ANSF and ISAF) and Pakistan is somewhat dismayed. Read more in "Pakistan condemns drone strike that targeted 'good Taliban", Threat Matrix, a blog of the Long War Journal, October 31, 2014.

Drones Over Pakistan

An article about drone attacks against insurgents in Pakistan provides us with some recent background on drones and their effectiveness. Read "Pakistan-US: Death From the Skies - Analysis", Eurasia Review, October 20, 2014.

Role of Neighbors in Rebuilding Afghanistan

A recent posting by Ajay Anil Cherian posted on International Policy Digest (October 12, 2014) entitled "Rebuilding Afghanistan: The Role of Its Neighbors" provides concrete reasons why the three countries of India, China, and Pakistan should provide substantial assistance to developing and reconstructing Afghanistan.

Pakistan Cooperation in Drone Attacks

It appears that Pakistan is once again cooperating with the United States on drone attacks against insurgent targets in Pakistan. A series of drone attacks conducted by the CIA in early October leads some observers to conclude that the cooperation is improving. It would appear that the drone attacks are in support of Pakistani military operations in the North Waziristan tribal area. The Pakistani military has launched a months-long offensive against Pakistan Taliban insurgents. Read more in "Pakistan, U.S. again cooperating on drone strikes", News and Observer, October 14, 2014.

Pakistan Drone Attacks Continue

The United States is continuing drone attacks against targets in Pakistan. Two more drone strikes occurred in North and South Waziristan recently. Both areas are Taliban-controlled tribal agency areas. The drones, operated by CIA pilots, have been targeting al Qaeda and other insurgent targets in Pakistan. There have been only 11 drone strikes in Pakistan in 2014; all taken place in the last few months (none prior to June). Read more in a news article by The Long War Journal  dated October 6, 2014.