Afghan War Blog

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Gender Equality - USAID Online Training

For those who feel that they are lacking in gender equality awareness (and in the spirit of today being International Women's Day) we refer you to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) online course - "Gender 101: Gender Equality at USAID". Successful completion of the course fulfills the USAID requirements for employees in gender equality awareness. An overall score of 85% is required to be "Gender Aware"! The online course takes about 90 minutes to complete. Nope. Didn't do it, but maybe you need some gender awareness! Take the plunge at the link below:
http://usaidlearninglab.org/sites/default/files/media/GLS_USAID_Gender101_SCORM_20130918/index.html

Video - Afghan Commandos

This short 3 minute long video by NATO Channel (posted Feb 6, 2015) provides a glimpse of what it takes to be a member of the Afghan Commandos. There are currently nine Commando Kandaks with plans for an additional one (maybe?).

www.youtube.com/watch?v=fT5uklT43hQ

Paper - RoL and Biometrics

In developing countries people have a stereotypical view about judicial systems being slow, rigid, and secretive. In Afghanistan these three views are prevalent as well as a widely-held view of corruption in the Afghan judicial system. This impression exists largely because of the slow judicial process and corruption within the system due to the unavailability of modern age technologies to establish accountability of judicial personnel. Biometric identification technology can help to establish more accurate and secure identification and thus help the judicial system become more efficient, fast, responsible, and user-friendly. Read a report entitled How Biometric Identification Can Help the Judicial Management System, International Network to Promote the Rule of Law (INPROL), February 2015. This report may be useful for Rule of Law advisors in Afghanistan working in the Resolute Support Mission's Essential Function 3 RoL.

Good News Story on an Afghan Interpreter

The Afghan interpreters that tried to get a Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) over the past several years got screwed over (until 2014) by the U.S. State Department. Fortunately, for a few lucky ones anyway, some Afghan interpreters are finding their way to the United States . . . and they are being helped by a former U.S. Army Soldier and former Afghan interpreter who now lives in the United States. Read more in "Matt Zeller and Janis Shinwari Saved Each Other's Lives - and Now Help Others", People.com, February 19, 2015.

Hope for Afghanistan - An Optimist's View

There are a lot of doomsayers expressing concern and doubts about the Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan. Their arguments have many themes to include "the Afghan war is immoral", "U.S. supports warlords", "all Afghans are corrupt", "NATO/US is incompetent", "the intervention failed", "we already won, let's leave", "we already lost", "it is too expensive", "the Taliban will take Kabul", and so on. However, one observer seems more optimistic about Afghanistan. He examines the current situation and provides his outlook on the future of Afghanistan - with a look at the gains made, the challenges ahead, and what needs to be done to secure the future of Afghanistan. David Loyn is the BBC's Afghanistan correspondent. His article - "Don't be so quick to write off Afghanistan" - was posted by The Dallas Morning News on March 6, 2015.

CNN Video on Afghan Interpreters

A former U.S. Army Soldier talks to CNN about the thousands of Iraqi and Afghan linguists who helped U.S. troops and have since been forgotten. Watch a 10 minute long video on the topic.

America's Wartime Interpreters Try to Reach U.S., CNN, February 19, 2015.

Daily News Snippets (March 8, 2015)

John Sifton, writing for Human Rights Watch, claims that the United States continues to fund and support a network of abusive Afghan strongmen in the name of security and says "It's time to stop". Read more in his article - "Afghanistan's U.S.-Funded Torturers and Murderers", Human Rights Watch, March 6, 2015.

www.hrw.org/news/2015/03/06/afghanistan-s-us-funded-torturers-and-murderers

Thomas F. Lynch III says that there is still time to keep Afghanistan from going the way of Iraq. He believes that " . . . a comprehensive policy and strategy review for post-2014 military-intelligence support to Afghanistan needs to be conducted in early 2015." Read more of his analysis in Eurasia Review, March 7, 2015.

CIA Director John Brennan has decided to do a reorganization of the Central Intelligence Agency in light of " . . . the marked increase in the range, diversity, complexity, and immediacy of issues confronting policymakers; and . . . the unprecedented pace and impact of technological advancements". Read of his upcoming changes in a CIA press release dated March 6, 2015 and posted on the CIA website. Some observers see a bigger focus on cyber operations (Reuters, Mar 6, 2015).

A multi-service observation by special operators at Bagram Air Field in Afghanistan on March 4, 2015 was held to remember the 13th anniversary of the death of seven special operators that died during Operation Anaconda. Read more in "Bagram remembers Operation Anaconda's fallen", U.S. Air Force News, March 7, 2015.

Tamim Asey writing for Eurasia Review is wondering whether Afghanistan's grand bargain with Pakistan will pay off. To many observers there seems to be a move by President Ghani to smooth over relations with Pakistan - despite the support that Pakistan's intelligence agency provides to the Haqqani Network and other Afghan insurgent groups. Read more in his analysis (March 6, 2015).

Guest Bloggers

The Afghan War News Blog and the Afghan War News website are constantly striving to keep its blog, daily newsletter, and website factual, current, and relevant. If you have a link to a website or document you feel should be shared with the greater community then please send it to us. In addition, we are looking for individuals with some knowledge, experience, and expertise in Afghanistan on a wide range of topics to contribute blog posts and articles to our blog and add content to our website. And naturally, if you see errors, outdated information, or broken links please let us know.

staff@afghanwarnews.info

Early Morning News on Afghanistan

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Saturday, March 7, 2015

TAAC-North Commander

A new commander has taken over as the leader for the Train, Advise, and Assist Command - North (TAAC-North). TAAC-North is responsible for the TAA mission in northern Afghanistan. The lead nation in TAAC North is Germany and historically this country has always provided the commander. TAAC-North is based at Camp Marmal just outside of Mazar-e Sharif. The new commander is Brigadier General Andreas Hannermann. In 2008-2009 he was the German LNO to AFG GS, AFG MoD, and CSTC-C in Kabul. He replaced BG Harald Gante, who spent one year at Camp Marmal - first as chief of staff and then later as commander. Read more about BG Hannemann and TAAC-North.

Corruption Report by Transparency International

Transparency International has published a comprehensive report on corruption in Afghanistan. Afghanistan ranked 172 out of 175 countries in the 2014 Corruption Perceptions Index. Despite billions of dollars allocated for military training, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reports that just 29 per cent of Afghan Army units have the level of training required to allow them to operate independently with advisors (and many units no longer have advisors attached). The report, entitled Corruption: Lessons from the international mission in Afghanistan, was published in February 2015. The report identifies nine reasons the international community was slow to develop a response to corruption in Afghanistan. It proposes a framework for policy makers to address corruption issues in Afghanistan and in future interventions. There is no doubt that the Resolute Support Advisors working in Essential Function 3 TAO found this report interesting. The report is an Adobe Acrobat PDF, 72 pages long, and 2 MBs big. It can be read online or downloaded at the link below.

www.transparency.org/files/content/pressrelease/2015_Corruption_Lessons_From_Afghanistan_EN.pdf

A-29 CAS Aircraft to be Fielded Dec 2015

A recent press report says that a few of the twenty A-29 Super Tucano turboprop aircraft for the Afghan Air Force (AAF) will start to arrive in Afghanistan in December 2015. This will be just in time for the 2016 fighting season. However, the bulk of the aircraft won't be deployed until 2017 and 2018. The ANSF will have to rely on a variety of stop-gaps until the A-29's arrive and are integrated into combat operations. Some of those stop-gaps were described by General Campbell during his recent testimony before Congress on March 4, 2015 as use of Quick Reaction Forces (QRFs), employment of artillery fires (D-30 122mm Howitzer), employment of organic mortars (82mm Mortar), and the helicopters in the AAF armed with weaponry (such as the Mi-35, MD 530s, and Mi-17s). The fielding of the A-29s was caught up in a contract dispute aggravated by congressional members who were playing politics. Read more in "Afghan Military to Receive A-29 Close Air Support Planes in December", Military.com, March 5, 2015.

A-10 Retirement - AF Math Doesn't Add Up

The U.S. Air Force wants to retire the A-10 Warthog. The close-air-support aircraft provides air support to ground troops, conducts ground attack against tanks, armored formations, enemy positions, enemy troops, and provides an on-scene rescue capability. The Air Force plans to retire the 300 plus A-10 Warthogs so it can afford to field the very expensive, but not quite yet capable F-35. There are many opponents to the A-10 retirement plan - and among those are the very combat troops that need the A-10s support - the Army! An Army officer has done the math and concludes that the Air Force, instead of retiring the entire fleet of A-10s, should just retire one of its six active fighters (F-15, F-16, F-22) and bombers (B-1, B-2, B-52) or end F-35 procurement. The author breaks down the math for us in "The Air Force's Argument to Retire the A-10 Warthog Doesn't Add Up. Here's Why.", Defense in Depth - Council on Foreign Relations, March 5, 2015.

TAPI Pipeline and India's Marginalization

The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline promises to bring economic growth and increased prosperity to the four countries participating in this natural gas project. The TAPI pipeline will move natural gas from Turkmenistan to the other three countries. Unfortunately politics, competition, and security are obstacles to be overcome. Current plans are for the much-delayed development project to be completed in 2018. India, once seen as a major benefactor and leader in the pipeline project, is becoming sidelined. Read more in "TAPI and India's Future in Eurasia", The Diplomat, February 27, 2015.

Afghanistan - Doomed Mission from the Start

A former military member who deployed to Afghanistan writes about why the Afghan mission was certain to fail. He states "The United States tried to fight a counterinsurgency in an environment tailor-made for insurgents . . . " and " . . . attempted to promote legitimacy and good governance without honest, reliable Afghan partners . . ." In addition, the U.S. never solved the problem of the insurgency having sanctuaries in Pakistan nor stopped the Pakistanis from providing intelligence, equipment, and financing to the Taliban. Read more in "Our mission in Afghanistan was doomed at the start; nothing could have saved it", Foreign Policy, February 18, 2015.

US Efforts of Reconstruction Misplaced

A recent article by Kiran Nazish in The Diplomat states that the United States had the wrong approach to humanitarian and reconstruction aid provided to Afghanistan. While many look at the senior government officials and their corrupt practices as the principle reason for the failure of much of the reconstruction effort - Nazish puts most of the blame on the United States. Hmmmm. Not sure about that. Read his thoughts on U.S. reconstruction aid to Afghanistan in "The Misplaced Priorities of US Reconstruction Efforts in Afghanistan" dated February 18, 2015.

Daily News Snippets (March 7, 2015)

A recent report released by the Director of National Intelligence predicts that a number of detainees held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba will return to the Taliban insurgency or terrorism activities if they are released. The report is based on trends identified during the past eleven years. Overall, the number of those confirmed and suspected of reengaging in terrorism is about 29 percent. There are about 122 detainees left in the prison at Guantanamo Bay. Read more in "US intelligence finds Gitmo prisoners returning to fight", The Hill Defense Blog, March 5, 2015.

The Army has recently defined the requirements for the wearing of bronze service stars with the Afghanistan Campaign Medal. Operation Freedom's Sentinel is a qualifying operation for the award. Read more in "Rules for wearing service stars with Afghanistan Medal", Army Times, March 5, 2015.

The German news outlet Deutsche Welle (DW) provides us with their thoughts on why Afghanistan's security forces are dwindling. The news article comments on the recent report issued by SIGAR that states the number of ANA members has declined by more than 8.5 percent since Feb 2014 - the lowest force strength since August 2011. Some of the factors for the smaller force includes combat casualties (up drastically over last year), desertions, discharges (term of service has expired), and some accounting irregularities. Contributing factors are the poppy growing season where soldier go on unauthorized leave to assist with the harvest, excessive absences (not returning at end of leave date), and attending to family matters during an unauthorized absence, and lower morale among the members of the ANSF. (DW, Mar 5, 2015).

Gandhara Blog has a video posted about the ". . . hundreds of female convicts in Afghanistan." Children up to the age of seven live with mothers in the prison. Radio Free Afghanistan correspondent Freba Mohd Zaher visited prisons across Afghanistan to investigate the conditions for the women and children behind bars. (March 5, 2015).
http://gandhara.rferl.org/media/video/afghan-women-prisons/26885157.html

The 2015 MRE menu is out and Duffel Blog has evaluated the top five MRE meals. See if your favorite is at the top of the list. (March 6, 2015).
www.duffelblog.com/2015/03/mre-review-duffel-blog/

The Sayedabad district executive director (Wardak province) was killed by unknown gunmen a few days ago (early March). The incident took place as he was leaving his office heading to his home.

The Georgian 51st Battalion stationed at Bagram Air Field (BAF) carried out a humanitarian mission in its operational area. The mission was performed in the village of Musa Bala in conjunction with U.S. Marines and the Afghan National Security Forces. (The Messenger Online, March 6, 2015).
www.messenger.com.ge/issues/3323_march_6_2015/3323_4.html

The author of Green on Blue, Elliott Ackerman, explains how he came to write his book on Afghanistan. Ackerman spent time as an advisor to Afghan commando units. (Slate.com, March 5, 2105.). Watch a short video with Ackerman. The book can be purchased on www.amazon.com.

Guest Articles Welcomed

Start Your Day w/ Afghan News

Friday, March 6, 2015

Rula Ghani in the Spotlight

Rula Ghani, the wife of President Ghani and Afghanistan's First Lady, has been stepping out into the spotlight recently. In February she conducted a trip to the United States where she conducted a number of interviews in the Washington, D.C. area. During these interviews she provided her perspective on a number of concerns and issues facing Afghanistan. She plans of taking a leading role in some aspects of Afghan life (women's rights, orphaned children, internally displaced people, education, etc.). She has some views on humanitarian aid - saying that it should be provided in a different form than it is currently given. Some aid is temporary but good aid helps people provide for themselves. She presents her take on being a Lebanese Maronite Christian in Muslim Afghanistan - saying it is not a problem for her. Read more in "For the First Time, An Afghan First Lady Steps into the Spotlight", National Public Radio, February 19, 2015.

Book - "Thieves of State"

Sarah Chayes, a true-life subject matter expert (SME) on Afghanistan, has written a book entitled Thieves of State. The book is about corruption and its devastating effects. Chayes is a former journalist, entrepreneur, and government advisor who has spent a lot of time (years) in Afghanistan. Her basic theme is that corruption fuels extremism and violence - as in the insurgency in Afghanistan. Taylor Dibbert, a freelance writer, has penned a review of Chayes's book entitled "Book Review: Thieves of State", Huffington Post Books, March 3, 2015.

DoDIG Report on ANP Log / Maintenance

The Department of Defense Inspector General's office has published a 100-page report entitled Assessment of U.S. and Coalition Efforts to Develop the Logistics and Maintenance Sustainment Capability of the Afghan National Police. The report, DoDIG-2015-067 dated January 30, 2015, contains 11 observations and 29 recommendations.

Observations:
Core deficiencies n the ANP logistics system
Afghan budget laws
MoI logistics policy
ANP requirements generation
ANP logistics asset availability
Sustainment of ANP facilities
ANP fleet management
Regional Logistics Centers (RLCs)
ANP transition to organic maintenance
ANP attendance at the ANA CSS School
Advisor resources

There were key logistics issues found in three areas - resources, policy implementation and enforcement, and emerging logistics processes. One observation is that there are insufficient numbers of skilled, experienced candidates available to Coalition forces to serve as ANP logistics advisors. One recommendation is that incoming advisors meet rank, skill-level, and experience requirements (good luck with that one - see info on historic problems with advisor selection). The report contains recommendations to the leads for EF 1, EF 4, and EF 5. The EFs - or Essential Functions - are the way Resolute Support HQs has organized its advisory effort. the DoDIG report can be found at the link below.

www.dodig.mil/PUBS/report_summary.cfm?id=6230

U.S. Spec Ops Needs 5,000 Troops

A recent news article says that the United States special operations forces needs another 5,000 troops. There is a need for 3,000 Special Forces candidates this year alone. In addition, candidates are needed for Psychological Operations and Civil Affairs. There is a great need for both enlisted and officers. With the downsizing of the U.S. Army there is more reliance on special operations forces. There are some benefits in going Special Forces. Promotion rates are higher. Specialists and corporals who successfully complete the Special Forces Qualification Course will be automatically promoted to sergeant - based on the 1 1/2 year long course and leadership skills learned during the course. Soldiers must pass through the Special Forces Assessment and Selection (SFAS) course prior to entering the Special Force Qualification Course (SFQC). Read more in "Spec ops needs 5,000 soldiers", Army Times, February 23, 2015.

CIVCAS - Afghanistan in Free Fall

An observer of the Afghan conflict writes about the increase in violence in Afghanistan - pointing to the departure of international combat troops as a contributing cause. Read more in "Blood and horror surge in our absence in Afghanistan", The Star World, February 19, 2015.

Corruption and Losing Wars

Arnold R. Isaacs writes about the devastation that corruption causes to a counterinsurgency operation. He writes on the corruption he witnessed during his three year work period in the last years of the Vietnam War. He comments further expressing concern that counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan are hampered by rampart government corruption - eroding support for the host nation government and providing support to insurgents. Read "Can Corruption Lose Wars?", Cicero Magazine, February 19, 2015.

Map of Islamic State Presence in Afghanistan

There is a lot of apprehension about whether the Islamic State (IS) will be able to establish a significant presence in Afghanistan. While initial reports by Resolute Support HQs indicate that IS is not yet a significant problem other observers seem more concerned. The Long War Journal has published a news article on IS in Afghanistan with an accompanying map. Interesting reading. See "Mapping the emergence of the Islamic State in Afghanistan", March 5, 2015.

Pessimism vs. Optimism

SIGAR (pessimism) and RS HQs (optimism). If ever there was a difference in reporting on the situation in Afghanistan it is found in the differing accounts of how things are going in Afghanistan according to SIGAR and RS HQs. The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has consistently pounded ISAF and now RS HQs on the reconstruction effort while Resolute Support HQs (formerly ISAF) has always seemed to paint a 'sunny' picture. Having spent part or most of 2010-2014 in Afghanistan in both Kabul (ISAF HQs) and on the ground at COP and FOB level with tactical units I can say that my perspective is somewhere in between the two outlooks provided by SIGAR and RS HQs. The staff at RS HQs, in many cases, are clearly out of touch with what is happening within the ANSF below corps level (ANA) and regional level (ANP); while SIGARs reports are sometimes a little off the mark. Read more in "IG hints at command cover up of shrinking forces", Washington Times, March 3, 2015 and "Campbell-Sopko feud on public Afghan audits spills to hearing", The Washington Times, March 4, 2015.

History - '3 Hut Uprising' of 1980

Thomas Ruttig of the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) has provided us with a synopsis of the '3 Hut Uprising' that took place in Kabul in early 1980. An uprising that protested the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Read Six Days that shook Kabul: The '3 Hut uprising', first urban protest against the Soviet occupation dated 22 Feb 2015.

Daily News Snippets Afghanistan

Foreign Policy - The Cable Blog - reports on the recent disclosure by Resolute Support headquarters about the personnel strength of the Afghan army. The information was classified last fall (it previously had been unclassified) but due to public pressure RS HQs has declassified the data. And . . . it isn't good news. It is very clear that the Afghan army is much weaker than we had been led to believe. It seems there were some 'accounting errors' in how ISAF maintained the strength numbers as well - contributing to the gloomy news. The number of troops in the ANA has declined by over 15,000 (the figures differ depending on how you interpret the data) or by 8.5 percent since February of last year. Read more in "Watchdog: Afghan Army Far Weaker Than Initially Believed", March 3, 2015.

Retrograde has been one of the prime missions of U.S. forces in Afghanistan since 2012. Getting troops and equipment out of Afghanistan has been a huge undertaking. One of the organizations providing this retrograde support has been the CENTCOM Material Recovery Element or CMRE. Read more about the CMRE in "Responsible retrograde in Afghanistan", Army.mil, March 4, 2015.
www.army.mil/article/143259

Troops from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment have returned to Fort Hood after a deployment to Afghanistan. They were away on an eight month long tour. Read more in "Brave Rifles return to Fort Hood", DVIDS, March 4, 2015.

There is a lot of pressure on the Afghan government to ensure that women are present at the negotiating table for any peace talks with the Taliban. Concerned observers and activists want to ensure that Afghan women are not sold out to the Taliban. Read more in "A Step Forward for Afghan Women", Foreign Policy, March 3, 2015.

Catherine Powell, writing for the Development Channel Blog of the Council of Foreign Relations has penned an article entitled "Female Police Face Danger in Afghanistan" (March 4, 2015).

Nasir A. Andisha, a visiting fellow at the School of International, Political & Strategic Studies at the Australian National University (ANU) in Canberra and also a senior career Afghan diplomat, has provided us his thoughts on Afghanistan's neutrality as an initial step toward diplomatic solutions for conflict in Afghanistan. Read "Neutrality in Afghanistan's Foreign Policy", posted on the United States Institute for Peace (USIP), March 4, 2015.

A recent study on humanitarian aid has yielded some surprising results and it makes for some uncomfortable reading for aid agencies. It appears that recipients of the aid find "Aid agencies are partial, unaccountable and potentially corrupt, and they fail to meet refugees' most pressing needs". Read more in "What refugees really think of aid agencies", IRIN Humanitarian News and Analysis, March 5, 2015.

China is slowing and 'silently' making inroads into Afghansitan - filling the gap left behind by the international community. The author explores the change in China's policy towards Afghanistan, the ramifications of the "Trilateral Strategic Dialogue" between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, and the challenges these developments present to India. Read more in "China Silently Making Its Way to Afghanistan - Analysis", by Anuradha Rai in Eurasia Review, March 5, 2015.

A female Afghan pilot of the Afghan Air Force (AAF) has been selected for a International Women of Courage Award 2015. Eight women from around the world were selected for this award in 2015. The U.S. First Lady, Michelle Obama, will present the award. Read more in Khaama Press, March 5, 2015. www.state.gov/s/gwi/programs/iwoc/2015/bio/index.htm

Seven Afghan policemen were poisoned at their post and shot dead in the Greskh district of Helmand province on March 4, 2015.

A regional conference called "Issues of Peace and Stability in Central Asia and Afghanistan" was recently held in early March 2015 in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan. The two-day event was attended by diplomats and ambassadors from around the region along with representatives from the UN, OSCE, EU, and others. (Silk Road Reporters, March 4, 2015).

Kabul is experiencing some electrical power shortages due to an avalanche in late February that damaged three transmission towers and a short distance of 220 kilo-Volt transmission lines. See a Facebook posting by USAID on this topic and how a USAID-funded Diesel Power Plant is helping to supply some backup electricity. (USAID, March 5, 2015).

A report published by the Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs of Princeton University entitled Lessons for US Doctrine: Challenges in Stabilization Operations, February 2015 provides us with an understanding of the experiences of the experiences of government and non-government organizations in stabilization operations in Afghanistan as well as other parts of the world.

Former leaders of the Afghan mujahideen that participated in the jihad against the Soviet Union and later the communist regime of Afghanistan are flexing their muscles. Some feel excluded from the political process (Ismail Khan, Abdul Rab Rasul Sayef, etc.). Others, however, are now part of the political process (Dostum, Abdullah, etc.). Some observers feel that the continuing role of mujahideen leaders in Afghan politics puts the country's future at risk. Read more in "Afghanistan's Mujahideen and a Fragile Peace", by Ali Reza Sarwar - The Diplomat, March 4, 2015.

The Kabul Medical University and USAID announced a new engineering degree program that is designed to train technicians on how to repair critical medical equipment. Read a press release by USAID dated March 5, 2015.

The United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) in Tampa, Florida has awarded a $405 million contract for " . . . theoretical analyses, exploratory studies, and/or experiments in various fields of science and technology . . .". I wonder if they need a blogger? This will be my last blog post of the day as I am editing my resume . . . to send to the John Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory!
www.defense.gov/Contracts/Contract.aspx?ContractID=5490

Sharpen Your Writing Skills

Coffee and News in AM

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Afghan MoD Rejects SIGAR Report

A recent report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has revealed some alarming statistics about the Afghan National Army (ANA). In January 2015 SIGAR released its quarterly report to Congress on the reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. SIGAR relies on ISAF (now called Resolute Support) to provide statistics on the ANSF. Last fall ISAF provided some ANSF information but - for the first time in years - some important data was classified. The news media and Congress questioned this new practice of classifying information that in years prior was released to the public. Resolute Support HQs reversed itself and released the data in early 2015. SIGAR has now issued a supplement to the January 2015 report to Congress which includes the updated, once classified figures.

The statistics provided in the updated SIGAR supplemental report are troublesome. ANA desertions, casualties, and discharges among its personnel is at an all-time high - and the ANA personnel strength is down almost 20,000. The ANA strength is now at 2011 levels (4 years ago). This is an alarming statistic. Couple this report about the ANA with a recent report about the personnel strength of the Afghan National Police (ANP) and its numerous "ghost policemen" and there would seem to be a big problem in the ANSF - one that Resolute Support Headquarters must be aware of but does not seem to be raising alarms about - at least publicly.

The Afghan Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a statement on March 4, 2015 rejecting the SIGAR report that indicated ANA soldiers were deserting en mass. But it did acknowledge a significant decline in its ranks. MoD claims it is exploring solutions to fix the problem. It should start with a review of its leadership and reduce corruption.

Leadership. The ANA has at all levels too many commanders who are ill-suited to be in leadership positions. Many do not take proper care of the soldiers in their units. Food is marginal, living conditions inadequate, medical care sometimes slow or non-existent, pay is erratic, and leave policies not followed. If ANA soldiers were treated better by their commanders then many would opt to stay in beyond their contracts and some less would be likely to desert.

Corruption. This remains one of the biggest problems in the ANA. Pay is taken from soldiers, food and fuel diverted to markets and the profits go to commander's pockets, and equipment meant for the ANA (vehicle repair parts) find their way into the bazaars. If corruption within the army was reduced more soldiers may be tempted to remain in the service of their country.

Correction: Inaccurate Number Cited

In yesterdays newsletter I inaccurately reported that the ANA personnel numbers had fallen to the lowest since "2001". I should have said "2011". Sorry for the mistake. The corrected blog post is at the link below:

http://afghanwarnews.blogspot.com/2015/03/ansf-suffer-heavy-losses-in-2014.html

ANP in Baraki Barak District - Logar Province

A very interesting and revealing news article about the Afghan National Police (ANP) in Baraki Barak district, Logar province. The author is Azam Ahmed, the Kabul bureau chief for The New York Times. He spent some time in the district hosted by the District Chief of Police (DCoP). This district is one where the Taliban control over 50% of the terrain depending on the time of day. At one time, as late as 2012, there was a U.S. infantry company, U.S. Special Forces detachment, many enablers (Intel, interpreters, LEPs, SFAAT, etc.), an ANA company, an ANASF detachment, the district police and an Afghan Local Police unit. Since that time the SF dudes, U.S. infantry company, SFAAT, enablers, and ANA company have departed. The Afghan police are on their own. As many observers of insurgencies realize the police are in the forefront in a counterinsurgency effort. This article provides us a glimpse of how the counterinsurgency fight in Afghanistan is going.

The " . . . war, by most accounts, has been lost. the nation is not pacified, the political future remains deeply uncertain and the death toll has never been higher. For the central government in Kabul, the real fight is to persuade the population, not to kill insurgents. And the police, local and national, are the only ones who can win it."

Read the article in "The Hardest Job in Afghanistan", The New York Times Magazine, March 4, 2015.

SIGAR Prompts Contract Review by Ghani

It appears that President Ghani is following through on some of his campaign promises. He stressed that the massive corruption within the Afghan government and Afghan National Security Forces has to be addressed. Officials from the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) recently met with President Ghani to discuss concerns about reports of corruption. Twelve logistics contracts - from uniforms, rice, fuel, and more are being scrutinized in an inquiry. Read more in "Afghan leader orders graft review for all army supply contracts", Reuters, March 4, 2015.

Afghanistan NGO Security Incidents - 2014

The International NGO Safety Organisation (INSO) provides analysis & advise for humanitarians. The organization is dedicated to supporting the safety of humanitarian aid workers who often risk their lives in the service of the world's most vulnerable people. INSO provides data on NGO security incidents. Below is a chart depicting security incidents in Afghanistan involving NGOs during 2014. The data reflects incidents, fatalities, injuries and abductions. (source INSO website).

Gen Campbell Testimony (Mar 4, 2015)

General John Campbell, commander of the Resolute Support Mission, testified before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee on March 4, 2015 about the situation in Afghanistan. The general says that it is " . . . unlikely the Taliban have the ability to best Afghan forces on the battlefield or topple the government . . . ". He believes that the Taliban offensive will increase over the next fighting season and that the government forces will " . . . maintain control over all key territory and populated areas including the country's 34 provincial capitals and its major cities". No mention of whether the Afghan National Security Forces can conduct a counterinsurgency campaign to rid the country of insurgents. He mentioned the early beginnings of an effort by the Islamic State to recruit groups to their cause.

You can watch the testimony on C-SPAN (2 hours 10 mins) at the link below:
www.c-span.org/video/?324603-1/general-john-campbell-testimony-us-policy-toward-afghanistan

The Adobe Acrobat PDF is about 27 pages long. You can read online or download a prepared transcript of his statement at the the link below:
http://www.rs.nato.int/images/media/PDFs/150304campbellstatement.pdf

To support his testimony General Campbell provided a slide brief entitled "Changing the Narrative". It appears that the General is at odds with what the media presents as the situation in Afghanistan so he has provided us with some 'feel good' news at the link below:
www.rs.nato.int/images/media/PDFs/150304campbellsupportdoc.pdf

If you don't have time to read the transcript or watch the video then you can read a press release by the U.S. Department of Defense that summarizes the testimony.
www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=128293

DoDIG Report Faults CSTC-A

A recent Department of Defense Inspector General report faults CSTC-A for failure to provide oversight and to develop the proper mechanisms to ensure direct funding assistance to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) is used properly. The report, Acquisition Processes and Contract Management, DoDIG-2015-082, February 26, 2015 determined that the Ministries of Defense and Interior (MoD and MoI) have not established effective controls over the contract management process. Sounds like an EF 1 PPBE task.

" . . . CSTC-A has not fully developed the capacity of the ministries to operate effectively, independently, and transparently. This occurred because CSTC-A did not hold the ministries accountable for not instituting the necessary controls over the contract management process and did not enforce the requirements within the commitment letters."

www.dodig.mil/pubs/report_summary.cfm?id=6269

Farah - Afghanistan's Wild West

With the departure of international troops from Farah province the Taliban and other insurgent and criminal groups are consolidating their control. The drug trade has picked up significantly and Afghan government control of much of the province has eroded. Read more in "Awash in opium, Afghan 'wild west' slips from Kabul's grasp", DNA India, February 18, 2015.

News Report - Who Are the Taliban?

So just who are the Taliban? There are lots of opinions out there but one that comes closest to the truth is reflected in an article by Ankit Panda - "Afghanistan's 'Complex' Insurgency", The Diplomat, February 19, 2015. The group has lost its monolithic identity. The various Taliban groups have differing types of ideology and various degrees of religious viewpoints. Many are looking more and more like regional criminal networks. This provides opportunities and challenges. On one hand, it becomes more difficult to conduct peace talks with Taliban representatives who don't really represent the various insurgent groups. On the other hand, the fractured nature of the Taliban is a benefit for the ever-increasingly competent Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and for the possibilities of reintegrating small groups at a time back into Afghan society.

Paper - NGOs and PRTs in Afghanistan

"Members of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have been critical of the Provincial Reconstruction team (PRT) initiative in Afghanistan since its inception, claiming that the mixture of military and humanitarian operations has resulted in 'blurred lines' that inhibit insurgents from identifying who is and is not a combatant. Certain organizations have hypothesized that aid workers are more likely to come under attack as a result of this mixture. Although this claim has surfaced in multiple outlets over the years, there was a lack of empirical evidence to support it. This study tests this hypothesis using a panel-corrected standard error regression model of all 34 Afghan provinces in 2010 and 2011. Preliminary results show that NGOs were likely to encounter a greater number of security incidents in provinces with PRTs; however, further analysis reveals this was only the case in provinces with teams not led by the US. This calls into question the validity of a general 'blurred lines' explanation for decreased worker security."

Read "Blurred Lines? Provincial Reconstruction Teams and NGO Insecurity in Afghanistan", by David F. Mitchell in Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, 2010-2011, March 2015.
www.stabilityjournal.org/article/view/sta.ev

Report - "Losing the Forgotten War?"

Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) has wrote a report entitled Transition in Afghanistan: Losing the Forgotten War?, February 6, 2015. In this report he states the need to reshape US Strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia. This detailed report is 242 pages long and can be read online or downloaded (Adobe Acrobat PDF) at the link below.

http://csis.org/files/publication/150206_forgotten_war.pdf

Women's Shelters in Afghanistan

One of the most provocative legacies of the Western presence in Afghanistan has been the funding and establishment of women's shelters. The idea that women can go to a shelter is very alien in Afghanistan. Read more in "A Thin Line of Defense Against 'Honor Killings'", by Alissa J. Rubin, The New York Times, March 2, 2015.

Afghan War News Snippets (March 5, 2015)

Radio Free Europe reports that Afghan refugees are flocking home amid claims of intimidation and harassment from Pakistani police. (RFE, March 4, 2015).

The Islamic State appears to be getting the attention of Afghan authorities as well as the security forces of the Central Asian states on Afghanistan's northern border. Afghan officials have confirmed the presence of IS militants in the northeastern province of Kunduz - which borders Tajikistan. (Gandhara Blog, Mar 4, 2015).

Islamic State. A researcher, Rajeshwari Krishnamurthy, with the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) provides us with some insight into the beginnings of the Islamic State (IS) in the Af-Pak region. Read more in this news analysis posted on Eurasia Review (Mar 4, 2015).

Retrograde. Over the past two years the U.S. has moved tons and tons of equipment, vehicles, and personnel back to the states (sometimes to Europe, or Kuwait, or other destinations). As part of the retrograde process in Afghanistan, something had to happen to the bases where the personnel and equipment came from. In many cases the bases were closed down - sometimes reduced to their original state - as in everything removed and the area reduced to dirt. Many instances of base closure saw the COP or FOB turned over to the ANSF or some other Afghan governmental organization. Read more about base closures in Afghanistan in "Base closure assistance team: a valuable resource for closing FOBs", by 1st Lt. Joseph Fumo posted on Army.mil, March 4, 2015.
www.army.mil/article/143262

A rescue operation for the Hazara hostages (30 of them) is still ongoing. ANSF authorities estimate that almost 50 militants have been killed in the operation thus far. (Tolo News, March 4, 2015).

If you ever wonder who makes sure that service contracts in Afghanistan are monitored then you may be interested in this recent news article by Army.mil. Read "Auditing service contracts in Afghanistan" (March 4, 2015).

The 304th Engineer Company , US Army Reserve (Ohio) has recently returned from a Middle East deployment. Some of the tasks of the vertical construction company was deconstruction tasks throughout Afghanistan. Read more in this DVIDS news release (March 3, 2015).

Residents in Herat (city in western Afghanistan) are on a two-day strike to protest an increase in electricity rates. (Tolo News, March 4, 2015).

Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani is attempting to reset relationship with Pakistan. Read more in "An Olive Branch in AfPak", by Tamim Asey in Foreign Policy, March 4, 2015.

More on Drones in Afghanistan. Lauren Walker writes in Newsweek that "the Afghan War is over, but U.S. drone strikes continue" (March 3, 2015).

Although combat operations (sort of) have ceased in Afghanistan U.S. service members are still going out in harms way to provide advise and assistance to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). At the regional level the Train, Advise, and Assist Commands or TAACs conduct the advising mission. An article recently posted on DVIDS (DoD) provides insight on how this is done. The article informs us about a Police Advisory Team (PAT) visit to the Afghan National Civil Order Police (ANCOP) 2nd Brigade headquarters in Nangarhar on March 3, 2015. The PAT met with the ANCOP commander " . . . to discus topics ranging from current operations to readiness for the upcoming fighting season and beyond." Read more in "Advisors focus on ANCOP readiness, sustainment", DVIDS, March 3, 2015.

Major General Abdul Wahab Wardak, commander of the Afghan Air Force (AAF), recently attended the International Military Helicopter Conference in London in January 2015.While there the general was interviewed about the status of the AAF. Read more in this news article in Aviation Today (Mar 3, 2015).

Writers Wanted

Afghan News Every Morning

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

MEC, UNCAC, HOO and TAO (EF 2)

Logo of HOOAC

The Independent Joint Anti-Corruption Monitoring & Evaluation Committee (MEC) has published a news release that provides recommendations aimed at improving the Afghan Government's UNCAC self-assessment. The Afghan government is a signatory to the UN Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC) and is required to comply with its provisions and conduct a two-phase review of their implementation. In the past (under Karzai) this has been entrusted to the High Office of Oversight and Anti-Corruption (HOOAC). MEC has accused the HOOAC of being deficient in a number of ways - not unsurprising giving Karzai's influence (remember that under Karzai Afghan corruption started at the top) over the HOOAC in the past. MEC is recommending that the new government (under Ghani) conduct a comprehensive review of the UNCAC self-assessment and to designate a more competent agency to oversee the second phase of the self-assessment which is slated to begin this year. Resolute Support Headquarters is striving to ensure that the international community donors have "confidence" in the ability of the Afghan government to be transparent about its activities (where the IC's money is going) as well as the ability of the Afghan government to institute accountability and oversight processes that reduce corruption. Resolute Support HQs is providing Advisors working out of the Essential Function 2 (TAO) group to achieve these objectives. Read the MEC news release, dated Feb 15, 2015.

Combat Rations Database

Did you ever wonder what you were really eating in those Meal-Ready-to-Eat (MREs)? Well now you can find out. Check out the nutritional value of the Meal, Ready-To-Eat (MRE), First Strike Ration (FSR), and the Meal, Cold Weather / Long Range Patrol (MCW/LRP) at the "Combat Rations Database" (ComRad) at http://hprc-online.org/comrad/.

"Taliban's Foot Soldiers" - Foreign Policy

James Weir and Hekmatullah Azamy write about the Taliban's rank and file and what motivates them to take part in the insurgency. They state that the three prime motivators in priority is 1) money, 2) local grievances, and 3) ideology. The authors believe there is a vast difference in motivation between the Taliban leaders in the Quetta or Peshawar Shuras and the foot soldiers of the various local Taliban groups. The existence of the Taliban has more to do with making money than changing the Afghan government. Read more in "Afghanistan's 'Transformation Decade' Depends on the Taliban's Foot Soldiers", Foreign Policy, March 2, 2015.

SIGAR Quarterly Report to Congress (Jan 2015)

The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has published its quarterly report to Congress. This latest report is dated 30 January 2015. This report covers the activities of the last three months for SIGAR - listing audits, inspections, and other activities. The report has several sections. The report is over 200 pages long and contains some updated information on the ASIs and ANSF.

Section 1 - Coordinating Aid: An Elusive Goal
Section 2 - SIGAR Oversight Activities
Section 3 - Reconstruction Update
Section 4 - Other Agency Oversight

www.sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2015-01-30qr.pdf