Afghan Election Flaws Need to be Fixed

The Afghan presidential elections were certainly filled with cases of massive fraud. A former Afghan ambassador to France and Canada has weighed in on the problem. See "Former Afghan Ambassador says election flaws must be fixed", Voice of America, September 22, 2014.

Sarah Chayes Comments on Election Results

Sarah Chayes, a long-term observer (and resident) of Afghanistan, has posted her opinion on the results of the Afghan election at the LA Times. She believes that despite the huge turnout for the April 5th and June 14th elections the Afghan people were short-changed by Karzai's corrupt election mechanisms and the bargaining for the sharing of power between Ghani and Abdullah. Her opinion is that Afghanistan will not see a significant increase in good governance but just more corrupt officials taking their turn at the spoils. Read her Op-Ed in "New Afghan government; same old problems", Los Angeles Times, September 22, 2014. Chayes is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment and a contributing writer. She reported from and later lived in Afghanistan for most of the past decade and also served as special assistant to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. (Photo by U.S. Navy Captain Debbie Trader-Miller, 2007).

Arm-Twisting Yields "Unity Government"

There were a lot of behind the scenes conversations between the United States (Kerry and Obama) and the two Afghan presidential candidates to come to an agreement over the election results. These conversations are described in greater detail in "Finessing a power-sharing agreement in Afghanistan", The Washington Post, September 22, 2014.

Ghani Declared Winner of Presidential Election

It finally happened. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) declared Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai as the new President of Afghanistan (referred to as PoA in the U.S. military). The actual numbers from the elections were not released and it is unknown if they ever will be released. While this might have been a factor in the agreement between the two candidates to move on it does not bode well for the democratic process and transparency of the Afghan election. Under the agreement Ghani will create by presidential decree the position of chief executive for Abdullah - with the intent that the constitution will be amended to create the position of Prime Minister. Read more in "Ghani is new president of Afghanistan, official says", CNN World News, September 22, 2014.

Afghan Power-Sharing Agreement Signed

The two presidential candidates (Afghanistan) signed a power-sharing agreement for a 'unity government' that resolves the election crisis. Now the Afghan government can get down to work, the Afghan economy can settle down, and the military and police can resume their counterinsurgency fight against the Taliban. The good news is that Karzai is finally exiting stage left. Read more in "Afghan presidential rivals sign power-sharing agreement", USA Today, September 21, 2014.

White House Happy with Ghani-Abdullah Accord

The White House is "happy" with the final resolution of the Afghan election. It "applauds" the presidential candidates for signing an agreement on the formation of a government of national unity. Read the press release by the White House (September 21, 2014).

U.S. State Department Happy on Ghani-Abdullah Agreement

The United States State Department is quite happy with the two Afghan leaders finally reaching an accommodation on the release of the elections results (did the vote tallies actually get released?) and the ability of the new Afghan government to be formed. Read a State Department press statement by John Kerry (September 21, 2014).

BSA to be Signed Soon

Now that the drama of the Afghan elections is concluded the next big step (from a U.S. perspective) will be to see the quick signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement or BSA. Learn more here in "Ending Afghan Poll Fight Opens Door to Security Pact", The Wall Street Journal, Septmber 21, 2014.

Afghan Election Results to be Announced Sunday

The final results of the Afghan presidential election will be announced on Sunday, September 21, 2014. The contest between Ghani and Abdullah has been lengthy and bitter. Supports of Abdullah have staged numerous protests in Kabul and in northern Afghanistan protesting the massive fraud that took place during the runoff election in June 2014. The inauguration of the new president has been delayed at least twice. The support of the international community is at stake - and will likely diminish significantly if the Bilateral Security Agreement is not signed. The proposed follow-on mission to Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) is called Resolute Support; but that may not even happen if the Afghans can't get their act back on track. The winner of the election will likely be Ghani; although at this point it is hard to really determine who is the true winner. Most observers say that if you throw out the substantial number of fraudulent votes Ghani still comes out ahead based on the voting that occurred along ethnic lines. Ghani (a Pashtun) received most of the Pashtun and Uzbek votes. One of his two running mates (vice-presidents) was Dostum - an Uzbek. Abdullah garnered the Tajik and Harzara vote. Abdullah is mixed Tajik and Pashtun although he comes from the Northern Alliance political world. One of his running mates is Hazara.

The big question is: did Abdullah receive enough concessions for power-sharing in the "unity government" to be satisfied with the outcome? If so, he will make it known to his supporters that the "struggle" is over and to support the power-sharing arrangements with the Ghani administration. Hopefully all will go smoothly, the inauguration will take place within days, the biggest Afghan crook in history (Karzai) will fade off to Dubai where he banked his millions of dollars, the Bilateral Security Agreement will be signed, the international community will continue to pump billions of dollars into the Afghan government coffers (and some of it will actually be used for running the government), and the U.S., NATO and other countries will provide the 14,000 plus troops to continue the Security Force Assistance mission - to be called Resolute Support after December 31, 2014.

We shall see . . .

IC is Discounting Nonviolence in Afghan Election

The website E-International Relations has published a lengthy and informative piece about the nonviolent protests taking place in Afghanistan as a result of the wide-spread electoral fraud. The article by Marie S. Huber (September 13, 2014) explains in detail the nature of the protests and questions the international communities' (U.N., NATO, U.S. State Department, international media, etc.) inadequate and incorrect characterization of the protests. Huber states that the protests are nonviolent and a good indicator that democracy is taking hold vice the international view that the protests are indicative of a move to violence and a disruption of the electoral process and peaceful transfer of power from one president to another. Marie Huber has been living and working in Afghanistan for two years as a researcher with both national and international organizations. She holds a Masters of Philosophy in International Peace Studies and conducts research on aid sustainability, gender, women's issues, and peace and reconciliation. You can read the article in full here.

ANSF Get Ready for Election Announcement

The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are bracing themselves for possible strife and conflict once the election results are announced. It is presumed (with the help of a little ballot box stuffing) that Ghani will be the winner. Supporters of Abdullah Abdullah (mostly Tajik and Hazara) will be disappointed and possibly take to the streets. The ANSF will very likely stay neutral although there are sure to be some leaders and units that will play a role in the coming discontent. Read more in "Afghan security forces prepare for election announcement", Stars and Stripes, September 17, 2014.

Afghan Stability Equals Presidential Election Deal

The situation in Afghanistan is tenuous. It could slip into anarchy very quickly if the current impasse with the results of the fraudulent elections is not resolved. The two contending candidates for president need to come to an accommodation on power sharing. Normally the winner (supposedly Ghani) would take all but with the vast fraud that took place the loser (Abdullah) is holding some cards. He is currently negotiating for a power-sharing scheme (some are calling it a unity government). Abdullah is not quite ready to call it a day and admit defeat as he is holding out for some additional perks. Ghani is reluctant to give up too much power to Abdullah but he needs to do a little sharing to garner Abdullah's support (or at least to quiet him enough that the Tajiks and Hazara accept Ghani as president). Read more in "Afghanistan's stability depends on two presidential contenders reaching a deal", The Washington Post, September 17, 2014.

Election Fraud Acknowledged by IEC

The Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC) has acknowledged that massive vote fraud took place during the presidential run off election between Abdullah and Ghani. The IEC has invalidated about 16% of the vote. To blame for the fraud are security forces, provincial governors, and members of the IEC. Read more in "Afghan election commission acknowledges massive vote fraud", Business Standard, September 16, 2014.

Afghan Election Impasse Over Soon?

Everyone is wondering when the Afghans will get the election mess sorted out. There are some reports that the election dispute will be resolved. Of course, it would seem that Ghani is to be the next President of Afghanistan based on the election results - he got the most votes. The question remains as to what Abdullah Abdullah will do next. Will he continue to oppose the results of the vote (that he claims is fraudulent) or will he take part in a 'unity government' with Ghani. Read more in "Breakthrough in Afghan electoral impasse seen as imminent", Stars and Stripes, September 16, 2014.

Life as an Election Monitor in Afghanistan

This news article describes the activities of a foreigner in Afghanistan performing the duties of an election monitor. See "WA deputy major recounts tense time as Afghanistan election monitor", ABC News (Australia), September 13, 2014 at this link.

Afghan Elections Mess

The Afghan elections of 2014 have turned into a fiasco. ISAF and the international community projected a lot of optimism in early 2014 about how the Afghans have taken charge of their destiny. The Afghans ran their own election with minimal observers and little ISAF involvement (was this the fatal flaw?). The initial election held on April 5, 2014 ran well with a lot of candidates running for office. Everyone patted each other on the back with how well security was maintained by the ANSF and the large voter turnout.

The runoff election held in June 2014 proved to be another matter with accusations of election fraud by the camps of both candidates (Ghani and Abdullah). The tabulation of the votes from the runoff election has been fraught with delays, accusations of fraud, resignation of the head of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), and other problems. The vote count of the runoff election was finally concluded on September 5th; however Abdullah says he will not recognize the validity of the results.

The inauguration of the new president of Afghanistan has been scheduled and postponed a number of times. The uncertainty of the election results have dampened the Afghan economy and increased the insecurity within Afghanistan. President Karzai, taking the high road (although he is the "election fraudster in charge"), is urging both candidates to come to an agreement on some type of power-sharing arrangement. Secretary of State John Kerry has been investing (to no good effect) time and effort in resolving the electoral impasse with hopes of establishing a unity government.

In the meantime the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) awaits signature (along with the corresponding SOFA agreements), ISAF awaits word on whether to transition to Resolute Support or simply leave, billions of foreign aid proposals stand by for use, and operational planners are contemplating troops levels of 9,800 (U.S.) or the zero option come December 2014. The Afghans have taken a golden opportunity and squandered it.

Afghan Warlords and the Election

There are eleven presidential candidates in the Afghan elections for president to be held this April. Among the presidential and their vice-presidential candidates are a number of famous warlords from Afghanistan's past. General Dostum is perhaps the best known among the vice-presidential candidates. Read all about them in "Warlords With Dark Pasts Battle in Afghan Election", The New York Times, February 26, 2014.

Profile of Afghan Presidential Candidates

The Institute of War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) has published an online guide to the eleven Afghan presidential candidates. You can view the candidate profiles in "Afghan Presidential Candidates 2014", IWPR, February 25, 2014.

Interesting Tidbits on Afghan Election

It appears that a free media in Afghanistan is hard at work. The print, radio, TV, and social media are working hard to make some candidates look good and others not so much. Read more in "Afghan notebook: Gold chairs and vodka", BBC News Asia, February 25, 2014.

Coalition for Afghan Democracy: Elections at Risk

The Coalition for Afghan Democracy believes that the Obama administration's 'hands off' approach to the Afghan elections is putting the electoral process at risk. The coalition believes the stakes are high and the elections need US involvement. The US State Department and military are concerned too much involvement by the international community will taint the elections - with the charge of western interference. Read more on the two sides of this issue in "Obama putting Afghan elections at risk?", DEFCON Hill Blog, February 23, 2014.