Saying "Goodbye" to Afghanistan

As December 31, 2014 approaches we will see in the press an assortment of news articles, opinions, and commentary about the end of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan. The ISAF mission comes to an end and the Resolute Support mission will begin. One commentator, Jonathan Foreman, provides his insight on the ISAF mission - believing that the various military leaders, advisors, and mentors were just starting to get to know the Afghans. Read his piece in "Afghanistan, We Hardly Knew You", The Daily Beast, December 8, 2014.

Bibliography for Resolute Support

Afghan War News has compiled an "Annotated Bibliography for Resolute Support". The ISAF mission in Afghanistan will end this year. NATO will begin the Resolute Support mission in January 2015. The Resolute Support mission is primarily Security Force Assistance (with a little bit of counter-terrorism). The mission will entail training, advising, and assisting the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and the Afghan Security Ministries (ASI). The link below will take you to an annotated bibliography for the Resolute Support Mission. The bibliography will be extremely helpful for advisors and staff working at the ministerial, institutional, and corps levels. The publication is an Adobe Acrobat PDF, is almost 200 pages long, and less than 3 MBs big.

www.afghanwarnews.info/pubs/RSM-Bibliography.htm

Video - "Changing NATO Mission in Afghanistan"

The NATO Channel has published online (YouTube) a 4 minute long video explaining the Resolute Support mission, provides info on base closures, and identifies shortfalls and gaps of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF).  Watch the video published on December 1, 2014 and narrated by Mel Preen - "Changing NATO Mission in Afghanistan".

NATO Agrees to RSM

NATO foreign ministers agreed (formally) on Tuesday to launch the new training mission for Afghanistan called Resolute Support. The new mission has been highly publicized and coordinated over the past year so this conference was mostly window addressing in terms of the agreement. (Reuters, Dec 2, 2014).

"Four Corners" of Resolute Support

The Resolute Support mission begins in January 2015 with a total of 9,800 (plus or minus) troops from the United States and a contingent of Europeans and other contributing nations (probably a few thousand). The mission is going to be mostly Security Force Assistance (SFA) with a little bit of counter-terrorism. The SFA mission will concentrate at the ministry, institutional, and corps level. Only four of the six Afghan National Army Corps will be covered down by advisors. The areas to be covered are referred to as the "Four Corners" - Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif, Jalalabad, and Kandahar. The four corners is depicted on the map below.

Map depicting the "Four Corners" of Resolute Support
(map from NATO video, Dec 1, 2014)

Resolute Support Training at JFTC

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is conducting training for personnel who will soon deploy to Afghanistan on the Resolute Support mission. The training is taking place at the Joint Force Training Centre (JFTC) at Bydgoszcz, Poland. The first iteration of this training for Resolute Support is taking place in November 2014. Approximately 100 personnel from the staffs of Resolute Support (RS HQ) and Train, Advise, and Assist Teams (TAATs) are being trained. The TAATs are receiving standardized preparation for their mission of train, advise, and assist with the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) at the corps and institutional level. Read more in "Future Resolute Support Members Train in Bydgoszcz", NATO, November 19, 2014.

COMISAF and Pending Decisions

The commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), General John Campbell, is currently reviewing the status of the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) and their ability to hold the Taliban off on its quest to control more of the rural countryside and capture remote district centers. The U.S. troop level will drop to 9,800 personnel in January augmented by a couple of thousand from NATO and other partnering countries. By the end of 2015 this number should be around 5,000 and by the end of 2016 around 1,000. COMISAF will need to determine if these personnel numbers are adequate over the next several months. Read more in "U.S. commander weighs decisions that will shape Afghan war's final chapter", The Washington Post, November 17, 2014.

Germany and Resolute Support

Germany will continue its presence in northern Afghanistan under the Resolute Support mission after December 2014. It will keep over 800 troops in Afghanistan as well as a few CH-53 transport helicopters. Read more in "Germany says to keep up to 850 soldiers in Afghanistan", Reuters, November 18, 2014.

Resolute Support and Troop Withdrawal Timeline

Jonathan Foreman provides us with a very comprehensive description of the Resolute Support mission and the problems associated with the stated "Obama timeline" for withdrawal of U.S. troops through 2015 and 2016. He says it is not too late for the president to rethink his arbitrary end date for the Afghan mission. U.S. troop levels will drop to 9,800 beginning in January 2015. In January 2016 the troop levels will be about 5,000. By the end of 2016 all troops (advisors really) should be out except for the military who will be working at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul. Read more in "The Afghan Handover", The Weekly Standard, November 2014.

NATO Chief Says Afghanistan Will Not Be Abandoned

The new chief of NATO - Jens Stoltenberg - says that Afghanistan will not be abandoned by NATO after its combat mission ends. Although NATO will finish the ISAF mission at the end of 2014 it will continue to support Afghanistan with the Resolute Support mission providing support and training. In addition, many countries will continue their financial support of Afghanistan; although at a lower level. About 12,500 troops will remain in Afghanistan after December 2014. Read more in "NATO Chief Vows Afghan Support as Combat Mission Ends", Defense News, November 6, 2014.

Georgian Battalion Serves at Bagram

The 51st Battalion of the 5th Infantry Brigade of the Georgian Armed Forces is now stationed at Bagram Air Field (BAF) located just north of Kabul, Afghanistan. Read more in "Georgian battalion joins ISAF mission in Afghanistan", TREND, November 3, 2014. See also "1st Battalion, 320th FA Regiment transfers security of BAF to the Georgian 51st Light Infantry", DVIDS, November 3, 2014. The 51st Battalion will provide security for Bagram Air Field.

Video - "Spoke and Hub Footprint"

In a short video (1 minute) General John Campbell (COMISAF) describes the "spoke and hub" concept of the enduring footprint that NATO will have during the Resolute Support mission after December 2014. See "COMISAF Enduring Footprint", Defense Media Activity - Army, October 30, 2104.

Bulgaria to Join Resolute Support Mission

Now that the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the United States has been signed other nations are making decision on whether to continue helping Afghanistan and formalizing their agreements with Afghanistan. Bulgaria recently decided to take part in the NATO-led Resolute Support mission. There will be about 110 Bulgarian military members in Afghanistan that will focus on the preparation, support and provision of advisors for Afghan institutions (MoI, MoD, etc.). Read more in "Bulgaria to take part in NATO-led Resolute Support mission", BNR.bg, October 15, 2014.

Chancellor Merkel Wants to Extend German Mission

Chancellor Merkel believes that the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) will not be ready by the end of 2015. She believes that they will need assistance beyond 2015. The biggest camp where the Bundeswehr is currently stationed is Mazar-e-Sharif in northern Afghanistan. That camp is scheduled to close next year at the end of 2015. Afghanistan is still plagued by a thriving drug trade, rampant corruption, and a resilient Taliban. Germany has been the third-largest contributor of troops to the NATO mission in Afghanistan. Read more in "Merkel wants to extend Afghan mission", The Local DE, October 13, 2014.

Drawdown Affects More than Troops

The draw down of forces from Afghanistan is affecting more than the troops who are deployed there. The U.S. will be cutting back to about 9,800 troops and NATO to 2,000-3,000 troops by the end of December 2014. Along with these troop cutbacks are the reduction in the contractor force. One of the biggest contingents of contractors is supplied by the Philippines. At one time there were over 6,000 Filipinos in Afghanistan. The number currently (Oct 14) stands at about 4,000. Read more in "Pullout of US troops to affect 4,000 OFWs in Afghanistan", Business Mirror, October 12, 2014.

Germany's View of the Future of Afghanistan

Germany has held a leading role in Afghanistan from the early days of the conflict. Besides placing a number of personnel to serve on the ISAF and IJC staff they have deployed a significant number of troops to Regional Command North (now called TAAC North). MG Dieter Ernst Warnecke was the deputy commander of the ISAF Joint Command (IJC) in Afghanistan in 2013 and a former commander of Regional Command North in Mazar-i-Shariff. He provides his perspective on the future of Afghanistan in "Afghan combat mission definitely over", Deite Welde (DW), September 21, 2014.

NATO - Wales Summit Declaration on Afghanistan

During its early September 2014 NATO summit in Wales the allies issued the "Wales Summit Declaration on Afghanistan" (see NATO press release 2014 - 121, September 4, 2014). There were nine paragraphs to the declaration. Topics included (1) honoring members of ISAF and ANSF who have served, (2) the fact that ISAF has assisted the Afghans over the past decade, (3) ISAF will end their mission in December 2014, (4) prospects for continued support to Afghanistan through Resolute Support, financial sustainment, and an enduring NATO-Afghanistan partnership, (5) NATO will continue to support the Afghan-owned peace process, (6) good neighbourly relations are essential (does this mean Pakistan as well?), (7) a stable Afghanistan is good for the wider region, (8) NATO is resolved to make Afghanistan "  . . . a stable, sovereign, democratic and united country, . . .", and (9) NATO is " . . . steadfast and resolute in our comittment to the Afghan people".

NATO to Continue Support to Afghanistan

NATO leaders at the Wales conference recently held reaffirmed their commitment to Afghanistan. This pledge included the continuation of the Security Force Assistance mission to be provided under the Resolute Support framework and the continuing funding of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) to the tune of $5 billion a year. Read more in "NATO commits to fund Afghan forces through 2017 as challenges remain", Stars and Stripes, September 4, 2014.

Drones, Resolute Support, and Bilateral Security Agreement

All eyes are currently focused on the upcoming Afghan elections scheduled for April and the non-signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement by Karzai. The Bilateral Security Agreement will provide the legal basis for a continued troop presence in Afghanistan beyond December 2014 - which will be called Resolute Support. It is anticipated that the troop level will be 10,000 U.S. and 6,000 NATO. The Resolute Support mission will be two-fold. Counter-terrorism against remnants of al Qaeda and other high value targets and conducting an advise and assist mission  - now called functionally-based Security Force Assistance. An important part of the counter-terrorist mission is providing for a secure base from which to operate and support the use of drones (by both the military and the CIA). Read more on the importance of the ability to stage drones in Afghanistan post-2104 in "How Much is a Drone Base Worth?", The National Interest, January 27, 2014.

Planning for Resolute Support Mission Continues Despite Lack of Bilateral Security Agreement

It appears that NATO and the U.S. military are conducting parallel planning. One is for the "zero-option" of no troops in Afghanistan beyond December 2014. The second is for 10K of U.S. and 6K of NATO to be in Afghanistan beyond December 2014; providing the Bilateral Security Agreement is signed. This force of 16K would be conducting the Resolute Support mission providing Security Force Assistance in the form of advisers and trainers but also conducting counter terrorism missions against remnants of al Qaeda that remain in Afghanistan. Read more in "Military Plans Reflect Afghanistan Uncertainty", The New York Times, January 29, 2014.