Afghan War Blog

Sunday, February 23, 2014

LPG and Rickshaws in Afghanistan

Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) is emerging in Afghanistan as an alternative fuel source for motorized vehicles in Afghanistan. LPG conversion can bring big savings and is also easier on the environment. In a city like Kabul (where the 'Kabul Crud' is prevalent) cleaner air is important. Learn more in a short video (3 mins) where the conversion of rickshaws to LPG is saving motorists a lot of money. View "The Rickshaw LPG Fuel Revolution", NATO TV on YouTube, February 19, 2014.

ISAF COIN Lessons Applicable to MONUSCO (DRC)

An instructor at the Peace Support Operations Training Centre (PSOTC) in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina provides us with an essay that stresses the lessons of counterinsurgency learned in Afghanistan not be forgotten and suggests that these lessons are applicable in future conflicts such as the one currently raging in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). He believes that the Mission de l'Organisation des Nations Unies pour la stabilisation en Republique democratique du Congo (MONUSCO) could apply some of the best practices employed by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. These best practices include applying the principles of "clear, hold, build" and providing enablers such as Female Engagement Teams (FETs), Human Terrain Teams (HTTs), CoISTs (that provided intelligence support to COIN), and more. Read his essay entitled "Why Counterinsurgency Matters for MONUSCO", Small Wars Journal, February 20, 2014.

Former ISAF Cdr Says War Planning Must Improve

At a recent gathering at The Stimson Center in Washington, DC the former commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), retired General John Allen, stated that the United States military has to improve in its war planning. He points out that we start wars very well but have trouble finishing the last phase - stability operations. This lack of forward looking planning was lacking in the Afghan conflict as well. Allen served as the ISAF commander from 2011 to 2013. He shifted focus from combat operations to the Security Force Assistance model and deployed hundreds of Security Force Assistance Advisor Teams to Afghanistan to conduct SFA. Read a news brief on his comments in "Allen: US Generals Must Improve War Planning", Military.com, February 21, 2014.

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Saturday, February 22, 2014

Snow Affects Helicopter Operations in Southern Afghanistan

Southern Afghanistan recently saw some snowy weather. Snow will affect military operations - changing or cancelling various types of activities. Primarily this pertains to movement of vehicles over roads and the use of rotary wing aircraft. Read an interesting article on how adverse weather conditions affects the use of rotary wing aircraft in Afghanistan. See "In Afghanistan, snow in desert brings operations to a halt", Stars and Stripes, February 15, 2014.

Afghanistan's High Peace Council to Meet with Taliban

Reports indicate that Afghanistan's High Peace Council will meet with Taliban officials in Dubai to discuss the prospects for peace talks. A senior aid to Karzai is meeting with the current and former Taliban officials. For years the Taliban have refused to meet with Karzai - stating that he was a powerless puppet under the protection of the United States. With Karzai demonstrating his independence from the west perhaps he has changed the perception the Taliban have of him. Thus far, peace talks between the United States and the Taliban have yielded very little. Read more in "Afghan peace team seeks Dubai meeting with Taliban figures", Reuters, February 17, 2014.

"No Go" Areas in RC North Afghanistan

Areas of northern Afghanistan now considered "no go" areas. With the pullout of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) units across Afghanistan comes the risk that the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) will start to yield territory to the Taliban and other insurgent groups. This seems to be happening on a small scale not only in the east and the south where the Taliban have historically always been strong but also in parts of the north of Afghanistan. Apparently there are now areas of Faryab and Jawzjan provinces that are controlled by the Taliban and considered "no go" areas. Read more in "Jihadists create 'no-go zones' in northern Afghanistan", Threat Matrix of the Long War Journal, February 17, 2014.

Fight for Highway One in Afghanistan

The major line of communication (road) between Kabul and Kandahar is Highway 1. Over the past ten years major efforts were made to hard-pave this road so that military, commercial and civilian traffic can pass safely and quickly between the two cities and the communities that lie along the roadway. However, the Taliban have made Highway 1 a very dangerous route; especially in the use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) laid along the roadway. The Afghan National Army is fighting for control of Highway 1 but it has not won the fight yet. Read more in "Afghan Army's Test Begins With Fight for Vital Highway", The New York Times, February 16, 2014.

Mortuary Affairs at Bagram: A Quick Glimpse of the Job

Mortuary Affairs is not a job for everyone. However it is one that has to be done and it is important to friends and family of the deceased that it be done correctly. Read about one of the toughest jobs in the Army in "Death shapes life for teams that prepare bodies of fallen troops for final flight home", Stars and Stripes, February 17, 2014.

Spike (the Canine) and His Human Partner

A short story online about a dog handler and his dog Spike. Provides you a little information about the life of a couple that work and live together in Afghanistan. Read it here in "Soldier serves Afghanistan with canine partner", Harbor County News, February 12, 2014.

Pakistan Refugee Camp Holds Victims of Soviet-Afghan War

There are still over one million refugees living in Pakistan that fled the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Many have become accustomed to the refugee life while others yearn to return to Afghanistan. Read more in "Victims of Soviet-Afghan War Live Forgotten in Pakistan Refugee Camp", Radio Free Europe, February 18, 2014.

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Friday, February 21, 2014

US Needs Drone Bases to Hit Targets in Pakistan

One of the casualties of the 'zero option' (no troops left in Afghanistan after December 2014) will be the lack of a base from which to operate the drones or UAVs that strike high-value targets in Pakistan. Currently the drones can operate out of bases in Afghanistan but if the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) is not signed then these drone bases will be closed. Both the military and the CIA operate drones at the current time in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Should the BSA not be signed by either Karzai or the president that is elected in the April 2014 presidential elections then the United States will have to negotiate with other Central Asian countries for the use of a base to launch the Predators or Reapers. Drone attacks into Pakistan are down in the last few years. In 2010 there were about 117 attacks; last year in 2013 there were 28 drone attacks into Pakistan. Read more on this topic in "U.S. seeks new bases for drones targeting Al Qaeda in Pakistan", The Los Angeles Times, February 16, 2014.

Dahla Dam, Kandahar ($50 Million and It Doesn't Work)

Dahla Dam, Kandahar, Afghanistan

Afghanistan is full of stories about development projects that didn't get completed or that didn't pan out the way they should have. Some of this has to do with the poor security situation where many of the projects were underway. A lot has to do with the austere conditions, lack of skilled construction laborers, poor oversight, shoddy workmanship, and corruption. One expensive project that is having trouble becoming fully functional is the providing of irrigation canals with water from the Dahla Dam in Kandahar province. This was a pet project of the Canadians (to the tune of $50 million). Unfortunately the project has some problems. The dam was built in 1952 - over 60 years ago. Canada cleared or refurbished almost 500 kilometers of irrigation canals in order to provide water for over 30,000 hectares of land. There are numerous stories of corruption, money flowing to the Taliban, illicit connections with the Karzai family, political connections determining where the water will flow, and ties to the illegal drug trade. Learn more in "Out of Afghanistan: A Legacy under construction", Ottawa Citizen, February 18, 2014. (Photo by Mark Ray, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, June 24, 2012).

Green-on-Blue Threat and Guardian Angels

A Canadian correspondent, Scott Taylor, writes about his experience with Guardian Angels in Afghanistan. Guardian Angels are employed to protect NATO military personnel from attacks by members of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). These attacks are known as 'green-on-blue' attacks or 'insider threat' attacks. During his visit to Afghanistan in December 2013 he describes the precautions taken against the insider threat while visiting Afghan units in Kabul. Read more in "Allied troops remain wary of Afghan soldiers", The Chronicle Herald, February 16, 2014. Read more about the Insider Threat and read news articles about the Insider Threat.

LTG Anderson (IJC Cdr) and His Good Buddy Abdul Raziq

The newly arrived ISAF Joint Command (IJC) commander LTG Joseph Anderson was recently photographed with a 'colorful' personality in Kandahar province - Abdul Raziq. Raziq is the Provincial Chief of Police (PCoP) for Kandahar - and is also suspected by many to be a warlord with strong ties to drug smuggling, corruption, and other illicit activities. Major General Raziq started out as a militia leader in Spin Boldak in southern Kandahar along the Pakistan border. Read more in "US general criticised over photo-op with Afghan cop accused of human rights abuses", The Telegraph, February 20, 2014. (U.S. Army photo by SGT Antony S. Lee, ISAF RC South, Feb 11, 2014).

Former Canadian General Released from Afghan Prison

An ex-Canadian brigadier-general, now a senior official with a Canadian security firm conducting business in Afghanistan, has been released from imprisonment in Afghanistan. He had been held for weeks after a dispute during a meeting with Afghan officials. The story gets a little murky in the details. Read more in "Former Canadian general released from Afghan jail", The Star, February 20, 2014.

What Does Post-2014 Afghanistan Look Like

A contributor to the Geopolitical Monitor, Marc Simms, provides his comments on what he thinks post-2014 Afghanistan looks like in a recent article posted online. He cites the lack of a security agreement, money to fund the $4 billion budget of the Afghan National Security Forces drying up (if no security agreement), the possible split of the Afghan army over ethnic lines, the competition for the opium trade, recruiting and retention problems of the Afghan army and police, and lack of spare parts and maintenance capability for vehicles and aircraft as a few of the many issues of concern. Read his article "What Will a Post-NATO Afghanistan Look Like?", Geopolitical Monitor, February 16, 2014.

Criminal Law That Penalizes Afghan Women to be Reviewed

The Afghan parliament recently passed a law concerning criminal legislation that penalizes women of Afghanistan. The new criminal procedure code would ban relatives from testifying against alleged abusers. This would effectively curtail most of the prosecutions of crimes against women. The new code met stiff opposition from the international community, human rights organizations, and some members of Afghan society. Karzai has taken a look at the new code and wants it to be reworded. See "Afghan president orders changes to draft law following claims it would hurt women's rights", US News and World Report, February 17, 2014.

A Paranoid Karzai

President Hamid Karzai's strange behavior has generated a lot of uncertainty and confusion. His refusal to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement, release of dangerous insurgents from the high-security detention center at Bagram, accusations that the U.S. was behind the recent Kabul restaurant bombing, and false propaganda about civilian casualties has put into question his sanity, his motives, and the future of Afghanistan post-2014. Some observers are trying to figure out Karzai; David DeVoss provides his insight. Read more in "Paranoia in Kabul", The Weekly Standard, February 24, 2014.

DoS Travel Warning for Afghanistan

The U.S. Department of State has issued an updated Travel Warning for Afghanistan dated February 20, 2014. The security threat to all U.S. citizens in Afghanistan remains critical. It states that there is "no province in Afghanistan where one can be considered immune from violence and banditry, and the strong possibility exists throughout the country for hostile acts, either targeted or random, against U.S. and other foreign national at any time". This new Travel Warning supersedes the previous one dated August 23, 2013. You can read the Afghanistan Travel Warning here.

ISAF Marine Corps Colonel Promotions

A couple of O-6 level Marine Corps officers assigned to ISAF have been nominated for promotion for their first star. Colonel William Jurney has been nominated for appointment to the rank of brigadier general. He is currently serving as the executive officer for General Dunford, commander of ISAF. COL Micheal Langley has been nominated for appointment to the rank of brigadier general. Langley is currently serving as the senior advisor to the 215th Corps in Regional Command Southwest Afghanistan. Read the DoD news release dated February 19, 2014 here.

Afghan Interpreters for New Zealand Finally get Residency

It seems that the U.S. State Department isn't the only organization having problems processing visas for Afghan interpreters. Evidently it has taken New Zealand over three years to process residency permits for some Afghan interpreters that worked for the New Zealand special operations forces. New Zealand has been a steady partner of the NATO forces in Afghanistan. Their special operations forces were operating in western Afghanistan conducting "rat patrols" through Shindand, Nimroz, and Helmand province in 2002. Later New Zealand forces stood up the Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Bamyam. They also provided forces in other areas of Afghanistan as well. All these endeavors required the use of Afghan interpreters. Read more in "Afghan interpreters finally offered residency", 3 News, February 14, 2014.

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FM 3-38 Cyber Electromagnetic Activities (Feb 2014)

The Army has released a new field manual that deals with Cyber Warfare. FM 3-38, Cyber Electromagnetic Activities dated February 2014 has no distribution restrictions ("Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited"). Topics in the field manual include fundamentals of cyber electromagnetic activities; roles, responsibilities, and organization; cyberspace operations; electronic warfare; spectrum management operations; operations process; integration with unified action partners; and CEMA input to operations plans and orders. While not directly applicable to the Afghan theater it may be interesting reading for some. The manual can be downloaded at the following link (Adobe Acrobat PDF, 2MBs big, and 96 pages long).
FM 3-38 Cyber Electromagnetic Activities

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Work in a Tactical Operations Center (TOC) in Afghanistan

All echelons of units that deploy to Afghanistan have a Tactical Operations Center (TOC) where they track the daily operations and activities of their units. This includes companies, battalions, brigades and divisions - every level has some type of TOC. A brigade combat team (BCT) has a lot of moving parts to include combat missions, cargo convoys, route clearance missions, visits to adjacent units, Key Leader Engagements, and events and activities with counter-part Afghan National Security Forces. The unit's TOC tracks the whereabouts and timelines of each of the moving parts. 3rd Brigade Combat Team of the 10th Mountain Division is based at FOB Lightning in eastern Afghanistan. Their TOC stays very busy. Read about it here in "Spartan operations centers control the fight", DVIDS, February 14, 2014. (Photo by SGT Javier Amador, 10th Mtn PAO, Feb 14).

Wanted: Photographers for USAID (That Can Travel to Where USAID Can't in Afghanistan)

USAID had a solicitation for photographer services within Afghanistan to take high-quality photos of development work under the oversight of USAID. The solicitation was short-lived. Learn more about USAID's need for good photography to counter negative stories in "USAID: High-quality photos could turn the tide in Afghanistan", The Washington Post, February 14, 2014. Read the actual solicitation at this link here.

Taliban Takeover Post-2014: Not So Much

The Taliban have been confidently proclaiming that they will be resurgent in the post-2014 era in Afghanistan. Their information operations machinery works well in the rural countryside of Afghanistan but not that well in the well-educated urban areas. The likelihood of a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is not strong. They will probably gain more territory in the remote areas of eastern and southern Afghanistan (especially among the Pashtuns). Some factors that will influence how well the Afghan government and security forces perform in post-2014 are the results of the Afghan election in 2014, the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement, and the commitment of the international community to continue to fund the Afghan government and military. Jason H. Campbell, an associate policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, provides his thoughts on a possible Taliban takeover in "Take Two for the Taliban?", U.S. News and World Report, February 11, 2014.

More Afghan Detainees May be Released

It appears that Afghanistan is reviewing the cases of seven more detainees to determine if they should be tried by the Afghan judicial system or released because of lack of evidence. This follows on the heels of 65 detainees being released who were determined to be hardened insurgents that committed crimes against Afghan civilians, Afghan security forces, or U.S. military personnel. Read more in "Seven more Afghan detainees under review for release", DEFCON Blog, February 18, 2014.

General Officer Assignments (Afghanistan)

The Army chief of staff has announced some general officer assignments in a recent press release. A few of the assignments concern general officers moving into or out of assignments in Afghanistan. BG James E. Kraft, deputy commander of the Special Operations Joint Task Force - Afghanistan, will move to the Joint Special Operations Command, USASOC at Fort Bragg, NC. BG James Rainey, deputy commander of Regional Command South in Afghanistan, will become the commandant of the U.S. Army Infantry School at Fort Benning, GA. (source "General Officer Assignments", DoD, February 14, 2014.

Soviet-Era Journalist Recalls End of Soviet Occupation of Afghanistan

A Soviet journalist who covered many years of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan spent much of the final year observing and reporting on the withdrawal of Soviet troops. Read his comments on what happened 25 years ago in "Soviet-Era Journalist, Face of Afghan War, Looks Back on Pullout", Radio Free Europe, February 18, 2014.

Dangerous Detainees Are Legitimate Targets Says Pentagon

The Afghan government recently released 65 dangerous insurgents from detention. This was done despite over-whelming evidence that the detainees were guilty of various crimes under Afghan law. A Pentagon spokesman says that if the released detainees (65) go back to the fight then they are legitimate targets and will be pursued by U.S. military forces. Read more in "Pentagon: If freed Afghan prisoners return to fight, they're legitimate targets", CNN, February 14, 2014.

Afghanistan's Plan B

The Karzai regime has been continuing and increasing its verbal attacks against the United States. At risk is the continued presence of U.S. forces in Afghanistan post-2014 to continue the Security Force Assistance (SFA) mission (Resolute Support) and the many millions of dollars in foreign aid that will be tied to that SFA mission. However, Karzai may be willing to walk away from the advisors and the aid because he has a Plan B. Plan B could very well involve increases in support from Iran and India. Read more in "Could Iran and India be Afghanistan's Plan B", The Diplomat, February 14, 2014.

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Photographer Records Daily Life for Troops in Afghanistan

SGT Julieanne Morse recently completed a tour of duty in Afghanistan in 2013 as an Army photographer. She spent a lot of time traveling - much of it in Logar province when assigned to 6th Squadron, 8th Cavalry Regiment. 5/8 Cav was responsible (in conjunction with the ANSF) with providing security in Logar and for the conduct of the Security Force Assistance mission. Logar was a very active province with several contested districts (Azra, Baraki Barak, Charkh, and Kharwar). Morse is a Black Hills State University photography student and also a member of South Dakota's National Guard 129th Mobile Public Affairs Detachment. During her tour she embedded with a number of different units and took photographs of U.S. military units as well as the Afghan National Security Forces. Read more in "The daily life of troops in Afghanistan", Black Hills Pioneer, February 15, 2014.

ISAF Asked by Senator to Explain IO Campaign Against SIGAR

The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has been getting hammered by reports by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR). SIGAR reports have highlighted many failures in the Afghan Conflict relating to oversight of construction and development projects and of funding for the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Basically ISAF (and USAID) have not had enough accountants to follow the money and not enough contract specialists to ensure that projects and programs are implemented properly. A lot of money has gone south (actually it is in Dubai bank accounts). In response to the very damaging SIGAR reports ISAF developed an information operations campaign to counter the bad image it was receiving. Once this campaign was exposed it attracted a lot of attention. Read "Senator presses Afghanistan commander on critical audits", USA Today, February 13, 2014.

Relations Between Afghan Government and US Worsen

President Hamid Karzai has been increasing the volume in registering his discontent with the United States and the lack of respect the US has for Afghan sovereignty. The US is very concerned about Karzai not signing the Bilateral Security Agreement and the recent release of 65 dangerous detainees. Read more in "Karzai criticises lack of US respect for Afghan sovereignty as relations worsen", The Guardian, February 13, 2014.

Histories of the 65 Detainees Released by Afghaistan

The 65 detainees released by the Afghan government were hardened Taliban fighters - some who were directly responsible for the death of U.S. military members. Read the history of some of the detainees releases in a PDF document provided by BBC News. See "ANDF-P Pending Detainee Releases (65)".

Al-Qaeda Alive and Well in Afghanistan and Pakistan

An interesting and informative piece on al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan by Michael Kugelman. While the White House continues its story-line, developed during Obama's re-election campaign, that al-Qaeda poses a vastly diminished threat in Afghanistan - reality is providing us with a different perspective. Although various leaders of al-Qaeda have been killed over the years (many by drone attacks based out of Afghanistan) the group is still very operational. Read more in "Al-Qaeda is alive and well in Afghanistan and Pakistan", War on the Rocks, February 14, 2014.

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Tuesday, February 18, 2014

USAID and the Office of Transition Initiatives in Afghanistan

One of the more successful programs of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is it's Office of Transition Initiatives in Afghanistan. OTI has just chosen the firms that will implement the vast majority of its programs through the next five years. The nine partner firms that will assist USAID in the implementation of the development contracts include AECOM, Casals and Associates, Chemonics International, Creative Associates International, DAI, International Relief and Development, International Resources Group/Engility, Management Systems International, and RTI International. Read more on this topic in "USAID's audacious transition initiatives finds partners", devex.com, February 14, 2014.

Afghan High Peace Council Blames US for Insecurity in Afghanistan

The Afghan High Peace Council has released a statement saying that the United States is a source of insecurity in Afghanistan and that the U.S. martyred Osama bin Laden. The High Peace Council is made of a number of influential politicians, statesmen, academics, business leaders, government appointees, and even former (or maybe current) Taliban members. Thus far it has been relatively ineffective in negotiating with the Taliban and has a dismal record of implementing the reintegration program. Powerful words from an organization appointed by Karzai to represent Afghanistan in peace talks with the Taliban. Time for the "Zero Option"? Read a news post on this topic in the "Threat Matrix" (Feb 13, 2014).

Afghan Prisoner Release Strains Afghan / US Relations

The release of 65 detainees from the high-security Bagram detention facility has strained relations between the Afghan government and the United States. Read more in "Q&A about the Afghanistan prisoner release", The Washington Post, February 13, 2014.

Insider Threat Still A Danger in Afghanistan

The Insider Threat or green-on-blue attacks is still a huge concern for NATO and U.S. troops in Afghanistan. While 2012 saw the most green-on-blue attacks on record - there were still some that occurred in 2013. And, as we have recently read in the news, 2014 has already seen some U.S. deaths caused by insider attacks. Read more in "Pentagon: Insider Threat in Afghanistan as dangerous as it ever was", Stars and Stripes, February 14, 2014.

Afghan Forces Becoming More Effective

As the United States and its allies in Afghanistan continue to withdraw the Afghan National Security Forces or ANSF is finding itself having to do almost all of the fighting and also picking up responsibility for sustaining itself (logistics, training, MEDEVACs, supplies, contracting, etc.). Read more on this topic in "Afghan forces have proved surprisingly effective", USA Today, February 15, 2014.

More Mi-17 Helicopters Going to Afghans

A news report says that more Mi-17s are heading to the Afghan Air Force. Read "Afghan Army Service to receive More Mi-17 Helicopters this Year", Defense World, February 13, 2014.

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Monday, February 17, 2014

Coast Guard Assists in Afghan Retrograde Mission

A small element of the U.S. Coast Guard is assisting in the retrograde mission - moving equipment, material and supplies out of Afghanistan back to the United States or other staging areas. One small element of the Coast Guard can be found at Camp Marmal in Regional Command North. The U.S. Coast Guard Redeployment Assistance and Inspection Detachment or RAID is in Mazar-e-Sharif. They are responsible for assisting U.S. military personnel in properly packing containers for shipping from the war zone. Read more in "US Coast Guard takes on Afghan retrograde mission", Stars and Stripes, February 14, 2014.

203rd Corps SFAAT Provides Assistance In SoK Area

Security Force Assistance advisers provide advice and assistance to a variety of organizations within the Afghan National Army (ANA), Afghan National Police (ANP), Afghan military and police institutions at the regional and national level, and to the Afghan ministries (principally MoI and MoD). At left is a picture of U.S. Army Captain Jeffery Burgett advising a LTC and COL; of the 203rd Corps in the corps tactical operations center. (U.S. Army photo by PFC Dixie Rae Liwanag Feb 13, 2014).

4/3 ID Looks Back on Logar / Wardak Province Deployment in 2013

The 4th Infantry Brigade Combat Team (BCT) of the 3rd Infantry Division spent nine months in 2013 deployed to two of the most kinetic provinces in Afghanistan. Logar and Wardak provinces are located to the south of Kabul in Regional Command East. Logar province is a staging area and facilitation route into the soft underbelly of Kabul and Wardak province has the strategic Highway 1 that connects Kabul with Kandahar. The Afghan National Security Forces in both provinces were lagging a bit behind in their capability when compared with units in the rest of Afghanistan. Read more about 4/3 ID's deployment in 2013 in "A rough deployment: 4th Brigade overcomes challenges to enable Afghans", Savannah Morning News, February 15, 2014. In the photo at left, CPT Jason Imboden, an SFAAT advisor in Logar province instructs members of the Afghan National Civil Order Police (ANCOP) in Counter IED techniques. (Photo by SGT Julieanne Morse - May 2013).

Comparison of 1989 and 2014 in Afghanistan

As we ease into 2014 observers of the Afghan conflict are looking at the post-2014 era in Afghanistan when ISAF will remove most of its troops. Up in the air is whether the new Afghan president will sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) which will allow NATO to leave up to 16,000 troops in Afghanistan beyond 2014 to conduct Security Force Assistance and counter-terrorism operations against remnants of al-Qaeda. Many are comparing the post-2014 era with 1989 when the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan. The Afghan communist regime supported by the Soviets survived about four years before it was toppled. Some observers point out that the present Afghan police are corrupt and ineffective and that the Afghan National Army (although more capable) could easily divide along ethnic lines and ties to warlords and power brokers. Read more in "Withdrawing from Afghanistan - 1989 and 2014", DW.de, February 14, 2014.