Thursday, February 20, 2014
Taliban Takeover Post-2014: Not So Much
The Taliban have been confidently proclaiming that they will be resurgent in the post-2014 era in Afghanistan. Their information operations machinery works well in the rural countryside of Afghanistan but not that well in the well-educated urban areas. The likelihood of a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is not strong. They will probably gain more territory in the remote areas of eastern and southern Afghanistan (especially among the Pashtuns). Some factors that will influence how well the Afghan government and security forces perform in post-2014 are the results of the Afghan election in 2014, the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement, and the commitment of the international community to continue to fund the Afghan government and military. Jason H. Campbell, an associate policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, provides his thoughts on a possible Taliban takeover in "Take Two for the Taliban?", U.S. News and World Report, February 11, 2014.