Book - "Thieves of State"

Sarah Chayes, a true-life subject matter expert (SME) on Afghanistan, has written a book entitled Thieves of State. The book is about corruption and its devastating effects. Chayes is a former journalist, entrepreneur, and government advisor who has spent a lot of time (years) in Afghanistan. Her basic theme is that corruption fuels extremism and violence - as in the insurgency in Afghanistan. Taylor Dibbert, a freelance writer, has penned a review of Chayes's book entitled "Book Review: Thieves of State", Huffington Post Books, March 3, 2015.

DoDIG Report on ANP Log / Maintenance

The Department of Defense Inspector General's office has published a 100-page report entitled Assessment of U.S. and Coalition Efforts to Develop the Logistics and Maintenance Sustainment Capability of the Afghan National Police. The report, DoDIG-2015-067 dated January 30, 2015, contains 11 observations and 29 recommendations.

Observations:
Core deficiencies n the ANP logistics system
Afghan budget laws
MoI logistics policy
ANP requirements generation
ANP logistics asset availability
Sustainment of ANP facilities
ANP fleet management
Regional Logistics Centers (RLCs)
ANP transition to organic maintenance
ANP attendance at the ANA CSS School
Advisor resources

There were key logistics issues found in three areas - resources, policy implementation and enforcement, and emerging logistics processes. One observation is that there are insufficient numbers of skilled, experienced candidates available to Coalition forces to serve as ANP logistics advisors. One recommendation is that incoming advisors meet rank, skill-level, and experience requirements (good luck with that one - see info on historic problems with advisor selection). The report contains recommendations to the leads for EF 1, EF 4, and EF 5. The EFs - or Essential Functions - are the way Resolute Support HQs has organized its advisory effort. the DoDIG report can be found at the link below.

www.dodig.mil/PUBS/report_summary.cfm?id=6230

U.S. Spec Ops Needs 5,000 Troops

A recent news article says that the United States special operations forces needs another 5,000 troops. There is a need for 3,000 Special Forces candidates this year alone. In addition, candidates are needed for Psychological Operations and Civil Affairs. There is a great need for both enlisted and officers. With the downsizing of the U.S. Army there is more reliance on special operations forces. There are some benefits in going Special Forces. Promotion rates are higher. Specialists and corporals who successfully complete the Special Forces Qualification Course will be automatically promoted to sergeant - based on the 1 1/2 year long course and leadership skills learned during the course. Soldiers must pass through the Special Forces Assessment and Selection (SFAS) course prior to entering the Special Force Qualification Course (SFQC). Read more in "Spec ops needs 5,000 soldiers", Army Times, February 23, 2015.

CIVCAS - Afghanistan in Free Fall

An observer of the Afghan conflict writes about the increase in violence in Afghanistan - pointing to the departure of international combat troops as a contributing cause. Read more in "Blood and horror surge in our absence in Afghanistan", The Star World, February 19, 2015.

Corruption and Losing Wars

Arnold R. Isaacs writes about the devastation that corruption causes to a counterinsurgency operation. He writes on the corruption he witnessed during his three year work period in the last years of the Vietnam War. He comments further expressing concern that counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan are hampered by rampart government corruption - eroding support for the host nation government and providing support to insurgents. Read "Can Corruption Lose Wars?", Cicero Magazine, February 19, 2015.

Map of Islamic State Presence in Afghanistan

There is a lot of apprehension about whether the Islamic State (IS) will be able to establish a significant presence in Afghanistan. While initial reports by Resolute Support HQs indicate that IS is not yet a significant problem other observers seem more concerned. The Long War Journal has published a news article on IS in Afghanistan with an accompanying map. Interesting reading. See "Mapping the emergence of the Islamic State in Afghanistan", March 5, 2015.

Pessimism vs. Optimism

SIGAR (pessimism) and RS HQs (optimism). If ever there was a difference in reporting on the situation in Afghanistan it is found in the differing accounts of how things are going in Afghanistan according to SIGAR and RS HQs. The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has consistently pounded ISAF and now RS HQs on the reconstruction effort while Resolute Support HQs (formerly ISAF) has always seemed to paint a 'sunny' picture. Having spent part or most of 2010-2014 in Afghanistan in both Kabul (ISAF HQs) and on the ground at COP and FOB level with tactical units I can say that my perspective is somewhere in between the two outlooks provided by SIGAR and RS HQs. The staff at RS HQs, in many cases, are clearly out of touch with what is happening within the ANSF below corps level (ANA) and regional level (ANP); while SIGARs reports are sometimes a little off the mark. Read more in "IG hints at command cover up of shrinking forces", Washington Times,  March 3, 2015 and "Campbell-Sopko feud on public Afghan audits spills to hearing", The Washington Times, March 4, 2015.

History - '3 Hut Uprising' of 1980

Thomas Ruttig of the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) has provided us with a synopsis of the '3 Hut Uprising' that took place in Kabul in early 1980. An uprising that protested the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Read Six Days that shook Kabul: The '3 Hut uprising', first urban protest against the Soviet occupation dated 22 Feb 2015.

Daily News Snippets Afghanistan

Foreign Policy - The Cable Blog - reports on the recent disclosure by Resolute Support headquarters about the personnel strength of the Afghan army. The information was classified last fall (it previously had been unclassified) but due to public pressure RS HQs has declassified the data. And . . . it isn't good news. It is very clear that the Afghan army is much weaker than we had been led to believe. It seems there were some 'accounting errors' in how ISAF maintained the strength numbers as well  - contributing to the gloomy news. The number of troops in the ANA has declined by over 15,000 (the figures differ depending on how you interpret the data) or by 8.5 percent since February of last year. Read more in "Watchdog: Afghan Army Far Weaker Than Initially Believed", March 3, 2015.

Retrograde has been one of the prime missions of U.S. forces in Afghanistan since 2012. Getting troops and equipment out of Afghanistan has been a huge undertaking. One of the organizations providing this retrograde support has been the CENTCOM Material Recovery Element or CMRE. Read more about the CMRE in "Responsible retrograde in Afghanistan", Army.mil, March 4, 2015.
www.army.mil/article/143259

Troops from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment have returned to Fort Hood after a deployment to Afghanistan. They were away on an eight month long tour. Read more in "Brave Rifles return to Fort Hood", DVIDS, March 4, 2015.

There is a lot of pressure on the Afghan government to ensure that women are present at the negotiating table for any peace talks with the Taliban. Concerned observers and activists want to ensure that Afghan women are not sold out to the Taliban. Read more in "A Step Forward for Afghan Women", Foreign Policy,  March 3, 2015.

Catherine Powell, writing for the Development Channel Blog of the Council of Foreign Relations has penned an article entitled "Female Police Face Danger in Afghanistan" (March 4, 2015).

Nasir A. Andisha, a visiting fellow at the School of International, Political & Strategic Studies at the Australian National University (ANU) in Canberra and also a senior career Afghan diplomat, has provided us his thoughts on Afghanistan's neutrality as an initial step toward diplomatic solutions for conflict in Afghanistan. Read "Neutrality in Afghanistan's Foreign Policy", posted on the United States Institute for Peace (USIP), March 4, 2015.

 A recent study on humanitarian aid has yielded some surprising results and it makes for some uncomfortable reading for aid agencies. It appears that recipients of the aid find "Aid agencies are partial, unaccountable and potentially corrupt, and they fail to meet refugees' most pressing needs". Read more in "What refugees really think of aid agencies", IRIN Humanitarian News and Analysis, March 5, 2015.

China is slowing and 'silently' making inroads into Afghansitan - filling the gap left behind by the international community. The author explores the change in China's policy towards Afghanistan, the ramifications of the "Trilateral Strategic Dialogue" between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, and the challenges these developments present to India.  Read more in "China Silently Making Its Way to Afghanistan - Analysis", by Anuradha Rai in Eurasia Review, March 5, 2015.

A female Afghan pilot of the Afghan Air Force (AAF) has been selected for a International Women of Courage Award 2015. Eight women from around the world were selected for this award in 2015. The U.S. First Lady, Michelle Obama, will present the award. Read more in Khaama Press, March 5, 2015. www.state.gov/s/gwi/programs/iwoc/2015/bio/index.htm

Seven Afghan policemen were poisoned at their post and shot dead in the Greskh district of Helmand province on March 4, 2015.

A regional conference called "Issues of Peace and Stability in Central Asia and Afghanistan" was recently held in early March 2015 in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan. The two-day event was attended by diplomats and ambassadors from around the region along with representatives from the UN, OSCE, EU, and others. (Silk Road Reporters, March 4, 2015).

Kabul is experiencing some electrical power shortages due to an avalanche in late February that damaged three transmission towers and a short distance of 220 kilo-Volt transmission lines. See a Facebook posting by USAID on this topic and how a USAID-funded Diesel Power Plant is helping to supply some backup electricity. (USAID, March 5, 2015).

A report published by the Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs of Princeton University entitled Lessons for US Doctrine: Challenges in Stabilization Operations, February 2015 provides us with an understanding of the experiences of the experiences of government and non-government organizations in stabilization operations in Afghanistan as well as other parts of the world.

Former leaders of the Afghan mujahideen that participated in the jihad against the Soviet Union and later the communist regime of Afghanistan are flexing their muscles. Some feel excluded from the political process (Ismail Khan, Abdul Rab Rasul Sayef, etc.). Others, however, are now part of the political process (Dostum, Abdullah, etc.). Some observers feel that the continuing role of mujahideen leaders in Afghan politics puts the country's future at risk. Read more in "Afghanistan's Mujahideen and a Fragile Peace", by Ali Reza Sarwar - The Diplomat, March 4, 2015.

The Kabul Medical University and USAID announced a new engineering degree program that is designed to train technicians on how to repair critical medical equipment. Read a press release by USAID dated March 5, 2015.

The United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) in Tampa, Florida has awarded a $405 million contract for " . . . theoretical analyses, exploratory studies, and/or experiments in various fields of science and technology . . .".  I wonder if they need a blogger? This will be my last blog post of the day as I am editing my resume . . .  to send to the John Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory!
www.defense.gov/Contracts/Contract.aspx?ContractID=5490

Sharpen Your Writing Skills

The Afghan War News Blog and the Afghan War News website are constantly striving to keep its blog, daily newsletter, and website factual, current, and relevant. If you have a link to a website or document you feel should be shared with the greater community then please send it to us. In addition, we are looking for individuals with some knowledge, experience, and expertise in Afghanistan on a wide range of topics to contribute blog posts and articles to our blog and add content to our website. And naturally, if you see errors, outdated information, or broken links please let us know.

staff@afghanwarnews.info

Coffee and News in AM

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Afghan MoD Rejects SIGAR Report

A recent report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has revealed some alarming statistics about the Afghan National Army (ANA). In January 2015 SIGAR released its quarterly report to Congress on the reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. SIGAR relies on ISAF (now called Resolute Support) to provide statistics on the ANSF. Last fall ISAF provided some ANSF information but - for the first time in years - some important data was classified. The news media and Congress questioned this new practice of classifying information that in years prior was released to the public. Resolute Support HQs reversed itself and released the data in early 2015. SIGAR has now issued a supplement to the January 2015 report to Congress which includes the updated, once classified figures.

The statistics provided in the updated SIGAR supplemental report are troublesome. ANA desertions, casualties, and discharges among its personnel is at an all-time high - and the ANA personnel strength is down almost 20,000. The ANA strength is now at 2011 levels (4 years ago). This is an alarming statistic. Couple this report about the ANA with a recent report about the personnel strength of the Afghan National Police (ANP) and its numerous "ghost policemen" and there would seem to be a big problem in the ANSF - one that Resolute Support Headquarters must be aware of but does not seem to be raising alarms about - at least publicly.

The Afghan Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a statement on March 4, 2015 rejecting the SIGAR report that indicated ANA soldiers were deserting en mass. But it did acknowledge a significant decline in its ranks. MoD claims it is exploring solutions to fix the problem. It should start with a review of its leadership and reduce corruption.

Leadership. The ANA has at all levels too many commanders who are ill-suited to be in leadership positions. Many do not take proper care of the soldiers in their units. Food is marginal, living conditions inadequate, medical care sometimes slow or non-existent, pay is erratic, and leave policies not followed. If ANA soldiers were treated better by their commanders then many would opt to stay in beyond their contracts and some less would be likely to desert.

Corruption. This remains one of the biggest problems in the ANA. Pay is taken from soldiers, food and fuel diverted to markets and the profits go to commander's pockets, and equipment meant for the ANA (vehicle repair parts) find their way into the bazaars. If corruption within the army was reduced more soldiers may be tempted to remain in the service of their country.

Correction: Inaccurate Number Cited

In yesterdays newsletter I inaccurately reported that the ANA personnel numbers had fallen to the lowest since "2001". I should have said "2011". Sorry for the mistake. The corrected blog post is at the link below:

http://afghanwarnews.blogspot.com/2015/03/ansf-suffer-heavy-losses-in-2014.html

ANP in Baraki Barak District - Logar Province

A very interesting and revealing news article about the Afghan National Police (ANP) in Baraki Barak district, Logar province. The author is Azam Ahmed, the Kabul bureau chief for The New York Times. He spent some time in the district hosted by the District Chief of Police (DCoP). This district is one where the Taliban control over 50% of the terrain depending on the time of day. At one time, as late as 2012, there was a U.S. infantry company, U.S. Special Forces detachment, many enablers (Intel, interpreters, LEPs, SFAAT, etc.), an ANA company, an ANASF detachment, the district police and an Afghan Local Police unit. Since that time the SF dudes, U.S. infantry company, SFAAT, enablers, and ANA company have departed. The Afghan police are on their own. As many observers of insurgencies realize the police are in the forefront in a counterinsurgency effort. This article provides us a glimpse of how the counterinsurgency fight in Afghanistan is going.

The " . . . war, by most accounts, has been lost. the nation is not pacified, the political future remains deeply uncertain and the death toll has never been higher. For the central government in Kabul, the real fight is to persuade the population, not to kill insurgents. And the police, local and national, are the only ones who can win it."

Read the article in "The Hardest Job in Afghanistan", The New York Times Magazine, March 4, 2015.

SIGAR Prompts Contract Review by Ghani

It appears that President Ghani is following through on some of his campaign promises. He stressed that the massive corruption within the Afghan government and Afghan National Security Forces has to be addressed. Officials from the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) recently met with President Ghani to discuss concerns about reports of corruption. Twelve logistics contracts - from uniforms, rice, fuel, and more are being scrutinized in an inquiry. Read more in "Afghan leader orders graft review for all army supply contracts", Reuters, March 4, 2015.

Afghanistan NGO Security Incidents - 2014

The International NGO Safety Organisation (INSO) provides analysis & advise for humanitarians. The organization is dedicated to supporting the safety of humanitarian aid workers who often risk their lives in the service of the world's most vulnerable people. INSO provides data on NGO security incidents. Below is a chart depicting security incidents in Afghanistan involving NGOs during 2014. The data reflects incidents, fatalities, injuries and abductions. (source INSO website).

Gen Campbell Testimony (Mar 4, 2015)

General John Campbell, commander of the Resolute Support Mission, testified before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee on March 4, 2015 about the situation in Afghanistan. The general says that it is " . . . unlikely the Taliban have the ability to best Afghan forces on the battlefield or topple the government . . . ". He believes that the Taliban offensive will increase over the next fighting season and that the government forces will " . . . maintain control over all key territory and populated areas including the country's 34 provincial capitals and its major cities". No mention of whether the Afghan National Security Forces can conduct a counterinsurgency campaign to rid the country of insurgents. He mentioned the early beginnings of an effort by the Islamic State to recruit groups to their cause.

You can watch the testimony on C-SPAN (2 hours 10 mins) at the link below:
www.c-span.org/video/?324603-1/general-john-campbell-testimony-us-policy-toward-afghanistan

The Adobe Acrobat PDF is about 27 pages long. You can read online or download a prepared transcript of his statement at the the link below:
http://www.rs.nato.int/images/media/PDFs/150304campbellstatement.pdf

To support his testimony General Campbell provided a slide brief entitled "Changing the Narrative". It appears that the General is at odds with what the media presents as the situation in Afghanistan so he has provided us with some 'feel good' news at the link below:
www.rs.nato.int/images/media/PDFs/150304campbellsupportdoc.pdf

If you don't have time to read the transcript or watch the video then you can read a press release by the U.S. Department of Defense that summarizes the testimony.
www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=128293

DoDIG Report Faults CSTC-A

A recent Department of Defense Inspector General report faults CSTC-A for failure to provide oversight and to develop the proper mechanisms to ensure direct funding assistance to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) is used properly. The report, Acquisition Processes and Contract Management, DoDIG-2015-082, February 26, 2015 determined that the Ministries of Defense and Interior (MoD and MoI) have not established effective controls over the contract management process. Sounds like an EF 1 PPBE task.

" . . . CSTC-A has not fully developed the capacity of the ministries to operate effectively, independently, and transparently. This occurred because CSTC-A did not hold the ministries accountable for not instituting the necessary controls over the contract management process and did not enforce the requirements within the commitment letters."

www.dodig.mil/pubs/report_summary.cfm?id=6269

Farah - Afghanistan's Wild West

With the departure of international troops from Farah province the Taliban and other insurgent and criminal groups are consolidating their control. The drug trade has picked up significantly and Afghan government control of much of the province has eroded. Read more in "Awash in opium, Afghan 'wild west' slips from Kabul's grasp", DNA India, February 18, 2015.

News Report - Who Are the Taliban?

So just who are the Taliban? There are lots of opinions out there but one that comes closest to the truth is reflected in an article by Ankit Panda - "Afghanistan's 'Complex' Insurgency", The Diplomat, February 19, 2015. The group has lost its monolithic identity. The various Taliban groups have differing types of ideology and various degrees of religious viewpoints. Many are looking more and more like regional criminal networks. This provides opportunities and challenges. On one hand, it becomes more difficult to conduct peace talks with Taliban representatives who don't really represent the various insurgent groups. On the other hand, the fractured nature of the Taliban is a benefit for the ever-increasingly competent Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and for the possibilities of reintegrating small groups at a time back into Afghan society.