Kapisa Province - Taliban Enclave

The Taliban would seem to have control of most of Kapisa province. Tagab district is especially at risk. The Afghan soldiers in Tagab district stay confined to their base. If they want to visit the local bazaar they can only go for an hour at 9:00 am; and only without their weapons. That is the deal the Taliban have offered them. Read more in "Hour's Drive Outside Kabul, Taliban Reign", The New York Times,  November 22, 2014. Check out a video about a French, American, and Afghan combined operation to retake the Alasay Valley (Alasay district) in Kapisa province (2009 2 mins).

Pakistan Taliban Group Pledges to ISIS

A splinter group of Pakistan's Taliban has pledged support to the Islamic State (IS). Read more in "Pakistan Taliban splinter group vows allegiance to Islamic State", Reuters, November 18, 2014.

Laghman Province - ANSF Not Losing, Not Winning

A reporter provides us with a glimpse of the fight for Laghman province (home of the 201st ANA Corp headquarters). ISAF has two remaining bases in northeastern Afghanistan - FOB Fenty and FOB Gamberi. For the most part - ISAF combat troops have departed - only advisors, support personnel, "Guardian Angels", chopper support, and others remain. Laghman province, although quieter than Nangarhar and Kunar provinces, is an area that is contested by the Taliban. Read more in "Insurgents in Afghanistan's Laghman province may win by not losing", Stars and Stripes, November 15, 2014.

Peace Talks with Taliban

A writer provides his opinion on holding peace talks with the Taliban. Jack Fairweather seems to think that holding talks with the Taliban and letting them rule parts of the rural south would be a good thing. Learn more in "Give the Taliban a Chance", New York Times Opinion Pages, November 11, 2014.

Slain Afghan Official Mourned

The sub-governor of Kandahar, Abdul Qadim Patyal, was assassinated while he was attending a night class on Afghan literature. He embodied the hope of many who saw a youthful public servant who was not tied to a warlord or specific "tribal family" that would help bring Afghanistan out of the 14th century and into the 21st century. Read more in "Slain Afghan official, a poet, embodied hope of youth", Los Angeles Times, November 4, 2014.

Taliban Efforts Hurt by ANSF in October

According to a recent news report the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) enjoyed some success against the Taliban during the last part of October (2014). Read more in "Afghan security forces cut into Taliban efforts in October", Central Asia Online, November 3, 2014.

Afghan Deputy Gov Killed in Attack

A deputy provincial governor was killed in an attack in southern Kandahar while attending a university class. Read more in "Attacks Kill Afghan Deputy Governor, Judge", The New York Times, November 3, 2014.

Taliban Free Russian Pilot

The Afghan Taliban has freed a Russian contract helicopter pilot who was captured in eastern Logar province in April 2013. The pilot had fallen seriously ill. Eight Turkish engineers, and one Afghan citizen were captured when their helicopter made an emergency landing in a part of Logar province that has been controlled by the Taliban for a number of years. Read more in "Taliban free Russian pilot after 18 months in captivity", Reuters, October 31, 2014.

Good Taliban Killed; Pakistan Unhappy

Pakistan is very supportive of U.S. drone strikes (CIA I would think) striking the "bad Taliban". The "bad Taliban" would be the ones who are opposing the Pakistan regime. It seems that one of our drones hit the "good Taliban" (the ones that the Pakistan intelligence service arms, equips, trains, and provides sanctuary to and that attack the ANSF and ISAF) and Pakistan is somewhat dismayed. Read more in "Pakistan condemns drone strike that targeted 'good Taliban", Threat Matrix, a blog of the Long War Journal, October 31, 2014.

Map of 2014 Large Taliban Offensives by District

The Taliban conducted a very intensive 2014 fighting season in Afghanistan. The fighting season typically runs from April to October. The 2014 fighting season saw the Taliban massing forces in larger numbers and taking over several district centers for as long as a month before the ANSF could dislodge them. Many times the Taliban operated in groups as large as 100 members. This is something that would not be done in the past due to ISAF air power. However, ISAF air power was withheld from the ANSF during much of the 2014 fighting season; and only used in greater numbers in August and September when it became apparent the ANSF desperately needed some assistance. You can view a map (produced by Jason Lyall of Yale University) of where the Taliban operated in large formations by district at "Taliban Offensives (April-October 2014)", CARTODB, October 2014.

Tangi Valley - Taliban Stronghold

The Tangi Valley in eastern Wardak province and western Logar province has always been an area controlled by the Taliban. Sure, the U.S. Army or the Afghan National Security Forces may go into the valley for 3 or 4 days each year but the remainder of the year the Taliban rule this mountainous area.The valley has its own Taliban governor, judicial system, and school system (funded by the Kabul government with international aid). A reporter from BBC news recently spent some time there and provides us with his observations in "Afghanistan conflict: Life inside a Taliban stronghold", BBC News Asia, October 20, 2014.

Reconciliation with the Taliban?

A columnist assesses the Afghan Unity Government (NUG) and thinks that Afghanistan may be ready for a serious effort to reconcile with the Taliban. He explores the many different aspects that need to be considered for negotiations with the Taliban. Most likely the biggest issue to face is Pakistan's support of the Taliban; presumably Pakistan uses the Taliban as leverage to influence Afghanistan ". . . over bilateral issues like India's presence in Afghanistan, Kabul's longstanding refusal to recognize the border, and the apparent use of Afghan territory as sanctuary by some Pakistani Taliban".The author, Barnett R. Rubin, was senior advisor to the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan in the Department of State during 2009 to 2013. Read his article in "  Is the Afghan Unity Government a Roadmap for Negotiations with the Taliban?", The South Asia Channel, Foreign Policy, October 20, 2014.

Taliban Attacks Continue

While many are waiting for the fighting season to end (it usually tapers down in the fall) the Taliban still seem to be busy. They recently killed the District Chief of Police (DCoP) for Nad Ali district in Helmand province. Read more in "Insurgent Attacks Kill 10 Across Afghanistan", ABC News, October 15, 2014.

Taliban Kill 22 ANSF in Sar-e Pol Province

News reports are indicating that 22 Afghan security personnel were killed in an ambush in Sar-e-Pul province in northern Afghanistan. Eight more were wounded and seven were captured. Six convoy vehicles were destroyed. Northern Afghanistan has seen an uptick in insurgent activity in the past few years as ISAF forces have conducted their retrograde (withdrawal). In the north the (mostly European countries) have collapsed from the east and west into the center (onto Camp Marmal in Mes-e-Sharif). Read more in "Afghanistan Taliban kill 22 in mountain ambush", BBC News Asia, October 13, 2014.

Taliban's New War Fighting Strategy

Many observers have commented on what appears to be new strategies adopted by the Taliban in 2014. The first is the massing of large numbers of insurgents to attack formations and bases of the Afghan National Army (ANA) and the Afghan National Police (ANP) located in small detachments in some remote district centers. The second new strategy is the targeting of intelligence officials of the National Directorate of Security (NDS).

The first, massing of large forces, is now possible because the ISAF airplanes (and choppers) that provide close air support (CAS) have dwindled and the lack of ISAF JTACs on the ground to direct the airstrikes. The Afghan Air Force (AAF) is far from able to provide close air support. The AAF has just a few aged Mi-35 HIND Attack Helicopters (export model of the Mi-24) and will not receive the Super Tucano until 2016. Another limiting factor is the minimal amount of Afghan Tactical Air Controllers (ATAC). In the past the insurgents would be hammered by CAS if they massed or attacked installations; however, that threat is no longer there.

Everyone knows that (well, . . . almost everyone) intelligence drives operations in a counterinsurgency. The ISAF ISR structure has, like its CAS capability, dwindled. The brigades that used to share the battlespace with the ANSF have gone home, and what little intelligence assets remain behind sometimes have trouble sharing information with their Afghan counterparts. The best Intel that the Afghans can provide is HUMINT - and that means the NDS. So the Taliban targeting the NDS is a good strategy (for them) as it diminishes the most important Intel asset that the ANSF can count on.

Read more in "Taliban Devise New Strategy in Afghanistan: Territorial Control and War on Afghan Intelligence Headquarters", The Jamestown Foundation, September 26, 2014.

21 Afghan Soldiers Killed in Kunar

The Taliban launched an attack on an Afghan National army (ANA) checkpoint resulting in at least 21 Afghan soldiers killed. Read more in "Taliban Checkpoint Attack Kills 21 Afghan Soldiers", The New York Times, February 23, 2014.

Taliban Takeover Post-2014: Not So Much

The Taliban have been confidently proclaiming that they will be resurgent in the post-2014 era in Afghanistan. Their information operations machinery works well in the rural countryside of Afghanistan but not that well in the well-educated urban areas. The likelihood of a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is not strong. They will probably gain more territory in the remote areas of eastern and southern Afghanistan (especially among the Pashtuns). Some factors that will influence how well the Afghan government and security forces perform in post-2014 are the results of the Afghan election in 2014, the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement, and the commitment of the international community to continue to fund the Afghan government and military. Jason H. Campbell, an associate policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, provides his thoughts on a possible Taliban takeover in "Take Two for the Taliban?", U.S. News and World Report, February 11, 2014.

Pakistan's Taliban University

Just 90 minutes (driving) northwest of Islamabad, Pakistan is an Islamic seminary that is considered a jihadist factory producing Taliban fighters for decades. It is unofficially known as the "University of Jihad". Among its alumni are Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar and Jalaluddin Haqqani. About 3,500 students currently live and study at the compound. Read more in "At Pakistan's 'Taliban U' jihadists major in anti-Americanism", Fox News, February 7, 2014.

Taliban Establish Camps for Training in Helmand Province

Reports from Afghan police officials say that the Taliban have established some training camps in southern Helmand in the districts of Dishu and Khanishin. Learn more in a recent blog post of the Long War Journal dated February 12, 2014.

Report: Taliban to Regain Territory and Influence Post-2014

A recent report states that the Taliban will increase its influence in rural areas of Afghanistan and regain territory in the east and south of the country once foreign forces have completely withdrawn from the country. The report says the country has been undermined by endemic corruption and the opium drug industry. The report was written for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute by a former intelligence adviser and defense official (Ian Dudgeon). See "Taliban will move in as global forces withdraw from Afghanistan, warns report", The Sydney Morning Herald, February 5, 2014.