White House May Delay Signing of BSA Until New Afghan President Takes Office

The White House is considering delaying the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with Afghanistan until after the new president of Afghanistan takes office. It is very unlikely that Karzai will sign the BSA; and it is time to treat him like the 'lame duck' that he is. While the Afghan election is scheduled for April 5, 2014 it is very likely going to be headed for a run-off that takes place later in the summer. There are eleven candidates running and if the winner doesn't get 50% of the vote a run-off will be scheduled. That means the BSA won' be signed until later in the summer; providing ISAF, the U.S., and the international community three to four months to either pull out of Afghanistan completely or to implement plans to keep up to 16,000 troops in Afghanistan past December 2014. 10,000 would be from the United States and 6,000 from other NATO countries. Read more in "U.S. said to mull shifting Afghanistan exit plans", United Press International, February 11, 2014.

Clapper Says Karzai Won't Sign Bilateral Security Agreement

In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee the U.S. National Intelligence Chief, James Clapper, says that he doesn't think President Karzai will sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the United States. There are many who say we should just ignore Karzai and wait for the next Afghan president to be elected in either April or in the run-off to be held mid-summer. And I am one of those who say we should marginalize Karzai and treat him like the lame-duck that he is! Read more in "U.S. Intelligence Chief Believes Karzai Won't Sign BSA", Radio Free Europe, February 12, 2014.

Germany Urges Afghanistan to Sign Bilateral Security Agreement

The German Foreign Minister recently visited Afghanistan and urged the Afghanistan government to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement. Frank-Walter Steinmeier spent some time at the Afghan foreign ministry in Kabul and met with his Afghan counterpart. Steinmeier also visited Mazar-e-Sharif - a northern Afghan city where over 3,000 German troops are currently stationed.  The German government has decided to extend its deployment to Afghanistan until the end of 2014. Read more in "German FM Urges Afghan Leader to Sign U.S. Troop Deal", Defense News, February 9, 2014.

Afghan Soldiers Very Concerned on Departure of ISAF

Members of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are dismayed that President Karzai has not signed the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA). They have legitimate concerns on their ability to hold off the Taliban should ISAF advisors and "enablers" depart along with much of the aid money that would pay the salaries and costs of the 350,000 man security forces. Read more in "Afghan soldiers desperate for pact with U.S. criticize President Karzai for delay", The Washington Post, February 8, 2014.

Drones, Resolute Support, and Bilateral Security Agreement

All eyes are currently focused on the upcoming Afghan elections scheduled for April and the non-signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement by Karzai. The Bilateral Security Agreement will provide the legal basis for a continued troop presence in Afghanistan beyond December 2014 - which will be called Resolute Support. It is anticipated that the troop level will be 10,000 U.S. and 6,000 NATO. The Resolute Support mission will be two-fold. Counter-terrorism against remnants of al Qaeda and other high value targets and conducting an advise and assist mission  - now called functionally-based Security Force Assistance. An important part of the counter-terrorist mission is providing for a secure base from which to operate and support the use of drones (by both the military and the CIA). Read more on the importance of the ability to stage drones in Afghanistan post-2104 in "How Much is a Drone Base Worth?", The National Interest, January 27, 2014.

A Meaningful Post-2014 Option in Afghanistan

Anthony H. Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), has provided us with an in-depth study of how we should determine the troop level and purpose of the post-2014 presence in Afghanistan. He states that the Obama administration is missing the boat in its analysis of what is needed and is not preparing the public or Congress for the post-2014 environment in Afghanistan. He states that the Bilateral Security Agreement will set the stage for the last phase of the United States involvement in the Afghan conflict and that it needs more attention than the Obama administration is giving it. Read more in "The Reality Beyond Zero and 10,000: Choosing a Meaningful Option in Afghanistan", Center for Strategic & International Studies, February 4, 2014.

Analysis of US-Afghan Bilateral Security Agreement

Much of the press coverage on the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) centers on President Karzai's refusal to sign the agreement even in the face of overwhelming support from the Loya Jirga. Yet, other than stating that the BSA will allow the US and NATO to keep troops in Afghanistan beyond December 2014 most observers don't really know the details of the BSA. A writer, Rajeev Agarwal - a research fellow for the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), has provided us with an analysis of the BSA. Read "US-Afghanistan: Implications of Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) - Analysis", Albany Tribune, February 6, 2014.

Abdullah Abdullah, Elections, and Bilateral Security Agreement

Abdullah Abdullah, a leading contender for the Afghan presidential elections to be held on April 5, 2014 says he will sign the Bilateral Security Agreement if elected. Read more in a blog post on CNN by Christiane Amanpour published on February 3, 2014 here.

Advisor to Karzai Says BSA Could be Signed

An advisor to Karzai (his national security advisor) is now hinting that the Bilateral Security Agreement could be signed by Karzai prior to him leaving office. Why bother. The April elections are around the corner. The newly elected president will most likely sign the BSA. ISAF should ignore Karzai, continue to parallel plan for either the "zero option" or leaving 10K in Afghanistan post-2014. How hard is that? (I do pity the LTC that has that job). So treat Karzai like the lame duck he is, ignore him, and move on. He shouldn't matter anymore.

Dev Aid as Negotiating Tool for BSA Signing

Karzai continues to stonewall the United States on the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement. He insists that the signing will take place with the new president of Afghanistan who will be elected in the April 2014 elections. One writer thinks we should force Karzai's hand by putting a freeze on development and aid funds going into Kabul's coffers until the Bilateral Security Agreement is signed. The writer also thinks we need to 'track' the money to ensure it is spent on the intended purpose and to attach some 'conditionality'. He provides some recommendations that merit consideration. In addition to the conditionality, he recommends increasing funding through Afghan systems (isn't this part of the problem?), spending only where there already is security, consolidate donor funds, providing more assistance directly to the provinces, focus on fiscal sustainability, unleash the private sector, and get tough on corruption. Read "Changing the Game in Afghanistan", War on the Rocks, January 22, 2014.

No BSA Blow to Afghan Army

The lack of a Bilateral Security Agreement between the United States and Afghanistan could not only result in a "zero option" for foreign troops (mostly advisors) in Afghanistan after December 2014 but also put at risk further financial aid that would bankroll the Afghan security forces, governance, and development. If the foreign aid is reduced (just as Congress slashed funds for Afghanistan in recent budget talks) then it will be almost impossible for the MoI and MoD to pay for its police and Soldiers. Read more in "Lack of bilateral agreement would be blow to Afghan army, NATO chief says", Stars and Stripes, January 27, 2014.

Played by Karzai - and the BSA

It appears that several deadlines have expired (three as I count them) for the Afghans to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA).  At first it was early fall 2013, then just after the Loya Jirga held in November 2013, then December 31st, and now the deadline is . . . well . . . after the April elections when there is a new president. Should the elections take place, and there is no presidential run-off, and the new president thinks the BSA is a good idea then we will have an agreement for U.S. troops (about 10,000 thousand) to stay in Afghanistan beyond December 2014. To the outside observer it would seem that ISAF and the Department of State have been schooled by Karzai. We want the agreement more than he does. However, it appears that it is not absolutely essential that an agreement be in place before April. And somehow Karzai had that all figured out while we didn't. Read more here - "In lieu of Afghan security pact, NATO must remain flexible, defense chiefs say", Stars and Stripes, January 23, 2014.

Gen Dunford Comments on Bilateral Security Agreement

A recent video has General Dunford (COMISAF) commenting on prospects of the Bilateral Security Agreement being signed. A video interview by Gail McCabe.
http://www.dvidshub.net/video/319911/bi-lateral-agreement

Keeping Troops in Afghanistan

The New York Times has published an opinion piece by Graeme Smith entitled "Grabbing the Wolf's Tail". The writer provides his perspective on the current situation in Afghanistan and concludes the war is not going as well as ISAF would have us believe. He does says that a small force needs to stay on to provide advice, assistance, medical support, air support and funding.

Alternative Approach to Karzai and BSA

Stephen Hadley, a national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration, proposes an alternative approach to President Karzai's non-signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA). Hadley believes that the Obama administration should stop the "sign now" offensive and wait out the three months until the Afghan election takes place. He believes the U.S. military and their many allies can actually conduct parallel planning for either a complete withdrawal and retrograde before December 2014 and for the keeping of 8,000 to 12,000 troops after December 2014. In the interim he suggests that Obama make a series of policy speeches outlining the intent of the U.S. to remain in Afghanistan - restoring the Afghan public's confidence in the future and reassuring the international community that it will continue aid and investments if the U.S. stays on. Read his article entitled "In Afghanistan, an alternate approach to a security pact", The Washington Post, January 14, 2014.

Iraq: A Lesson for Afghanistan

Afghans should consider the plight of Iraq. Without the resources, military assistance, and presence of a small-scale U.S. military force the Iraqi police and army have struggled in keeping al-Qaeda in check. Of course, a number of large miss-steps by the Shia dominated Iraq government has not helped. The Afghans need a continued international presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014 so that the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) can feel confident that help is nearby in terms of advice and assistance - and also in the form of enablers such as air support, medical evacuation, and intelligence. The Afghans should sign the Bilateral Security Agreement sooner rather than later. Read more in "Chaos in Iraq could be omen for Afghanistan without U.S. troops", The Washington Times, January 12, 2014.

BSA Needs Signing in 'Weeks' not 'Months'

The White House continues to stress the importance of the quick signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA). However, there is no indication that Karzai will sign it. Karzai has stated that he will leave the signing of the BSA to his successor to be decided in the upcoming Afghan presidential elections in April. It would appear that Karzai seems content in the knowledge that the U.S. really won't walk away from Afghanistan prior to April 2014. He also probably has determined that the U.S. and the other ISAF Coalition partners can do 'parallel planning' for both a residual force under the Resolute Support mission and the prospect of a complete withdrawal prior to January 2015. What has become painfully obvious is the lack of leverage that the international community has on Karzai and his cronies! Read more in "White House: Afghan troop deal must be signed in weeks and not months", The Hill Blog, January 6, 2014.

Karzai Responds to Pessimistic Intel Report

President Karzai has responded to a pessimistic National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that states Afghanistan will not do well past 2014 if the Bilateral Security Agreement is not signed.  Read more in "Afghanistan rejects grim U.S. intelligence forecast as baseless", Reuters, December 30, 2013.

Karzai Plan to Release Prisoners Puts BSA in Doubt

President Karzai is planning on releasing some detainees (approximately 86) currently held at the Bagram detention center located north of Kabul. This planned release is over the objections of the ISAF Coalition and is putting the Bilateral Security Agreement process into further jeopardy. The Karzai administration states that many of the detainees are innocent as there is not enough evidence to hold them. Read more in "Karzai is Warned Over Release of Detainees", The New York Times, January 2, 2014.

Afghan Economy Suffers Due to Karzai's Statement on Bilateral Security Agreement

The Afghan economy has suffered since the Loya Jirga when Karzai said he would not sign the Bilateral Security Agreement. Investments have slowed and real estate transactions have scaled back dramatically. Read more in "Uncertainty Over Security Pact Drives Final Nail into Afghan Bubble", Voice of America, December 18, 2013.