AREU Paper - ANSF Sustainability Challenges

On November 18, 2014, Dr. Antonio Giustozzi, delivered a public lecture and then answered questions during the follow-on discussion about the long-term sustainability of the Afghan National Army. The Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU) has published the transcript and posted it on their website. The lecture addresses some of the specific challenges of the ANSF - the ability to logistically support units in the field with supplies, ammunition, fuel, etc.; personnel administration; functioning of the Afghan Security Ministries (ASIs); procurement procedures, and more. Some of the points made by Giustozzi include:

- the drawdown of western forces affected the morale of the ANSF;
- the ANSF realizes they don't have the financial resources needed;
- Kabul military leaders don't have good ground truth of tactical situation;
- the ANSF realized they underestimated the strength of the Taliban;
- the Taliban enhancement of village-level operations;
- concern of ANSF to hold on next two years;
- high level of desertions from ANSF;
- higher level of ANA corruption than previously thought;
- 63% of ANA fuel is stolen;
- 2/3s of ANA food is stolen;
- poor quality of boots for the ANA;
- lack of foreign advisors and mentors means higher levels of "ghost soldiers";
- lack of advisors at kandak / brigade may increase non-judicial killings;
- a worry that ANA cdrs will use fires instead of sound SUTs;
- a lack of middle-class Afghans participating in the ANSF;
- lack of educated Afghans in ministries working budgets, etc.;
- ISAFs maintenance failures on the 11 Mi-24 combat helicopters;
- inability to field the 20 A-29 Tucano close support aircraft on time;
- ISAF fumbling of the C-27 maintenance plan;
- inability of ANSF to conduct aerial MEDEVACs affects morale;
- ANA commanders forming "truce pacts" with Taliban;
- lack of ANA doctrine (current manuals are translated US manuals);
- concern that Afghanistan could follow Iraq's present situation;
- senior Afghan military leaders and commanders "not up to the task";
- dismal prospects of reconciliation with the Taliban;
- optimistic narrative "everything is fine" of ISAF is counterproductive

The paper (transcript) was published December 7, 2014 and is available at the following link (Adobe Acrobat PDF, 22 pages, 1.3 MBs):
"The Afghan National Army: Sustainability Challenges beyond Financial Aspects".