Friday, November 28, 2014

Kilcullen - Muddling Through to 2024?

David Kilcullen, a renowned expert on counterinsurgency and no stranger to Afghanistan has published a paper (6 pages) about the future of Afghanistan over the next ten years - out to 2024. An abstract from the paper is found below.
"This paper highlights trends in Afghan security and development, including
capacities of Taliban and Al Qaeda insurgencies, national forces’ casualty and
desertion rates, and citizen rage spurred by abusive authorities, profiteering elites and ethnic leaders. In coming years, the unity central government may fall apart. As in Pakistan, U.S. targeted killings by drones and raids within Afghanistan may prove counter-productive, radicalizing civilians. While little is certain, a modest degree of successful stability and reconstruction may be achieved by 2024 – most large cities and many small towns may be controlled by the Kabul government, official corruption may decline, and conceivably the country may integrate into a regional economy shared with Iran, Russia, China, and India."
Kilcullen, D 2014 "Afghanistan in 2024: Muddling Through?", Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, 3(1): 37, pp. 1-6., November 20, 2014.

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