ISAF's Future Strategic Plan for Afghanistan

General Allen, in his testimony before Congress this past week, revealed parts of the "new" ISAF strategic plan for Afghanistan. Prior to President Obama's announcement that the U.S. would speed its withdrawal plans up from 2014 to mid-2013 the plan was supposed to be:

ISAF consolidates its hold in southern Afghanistan in 2010 and 2011. Then in 2012 (we are now at the beginning of the 2012 fighting season) US forces would be shifted to East Afghanistan to defeat (or disrupt) the insurgency along the Afghan-Pak border.

But . . . along came President Obama's "early withdrawal" plan. Instead of moving troops from Southern Afghanistan to Eastern Afghanistan - they are to come home.

So who does the fighting to secure the East of Afghanistan? According to General Allen - the new plan is for the Afghan security forces to accomplish this. So it appears that U.S. troops will concentrate on Southeastern Afghanistan - or the "Southern" RC-East area while the ANSF will be responsible for Northeastern Afghanistan - or the "Northern" RC-East area.

This new plan involves no small measure of "risk taking". In other words, leaving the "Northern RC-East" territory to the Afghans probably means that the insurgents (Taliban and Haqqani Network) will continue to maintain their grasp on this area and perhaps gain even more territory. The south of Afghanistan (where much progress has been made over the past two years due to the 30,000 troop surge) are to be handed over to the Afghan security forces as well (we shall see how that works out).

CJ Radin of The Long War Journal explains this more fully in his article "ISAF's new plan for Afghanistan" posted on March 22, 2012.  He has a handy map of Afghanistan depicting the areas of RC East as well.