U.S. Military to Switch from Combat to Advisory Role in Mid-2013 in Afghanistan

The Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, stated on Wednesday (February 1, 2012) that the U.S. forces will move from a combat role to an "advise and assist" role by mid-2013.  The ISAF nations have all agreed to a timed withdrawal by 2014 - although France may pull out one year early. Read more in "Panetta Says U.S. to End Afghan Combat Role as Soon as 2013", The New York Times, February 1, 2012.  Currently there are about U.S. 90,000 troops in Afghanistan with 22,000 scheduled to return to the United States in the Fall of 2012.

A big question is if the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) will be able to bear the brunt of the fighting.  So announcing mid-2013 as a fixed-time for this move from combat to advisory role is risky (see Fred and Kimberly Kagan's thoughts on this here).  Big advances have been made in the south of Afghanistan although the job is not finished there.  The north and west is under control as well - for right now. But lots of fighting remains to be done in the east and the southeast of Afghanistan.  It is questionable if the ANSF can do the hard work in these provinces alone over the next two years.

The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) number about 320,000 as of February 2012 and will grow to 352,000 by the end of 2012.  It is unclear who will pay the bill to continue to support an Army of that size. The ANSF may have to downsize.  Downsizing the Afghan army has a couple of drawbacks - there are less security forces to keep the insurgency in check and you now have to "demobilize" an individual who has been trained to fight and now does not have a job or source of income.  However, we have to move towards transition.  This goes against the grain of many of our brigade commanders who want to do the job themselves rather than have the Afghans take the lead. See "Putting the Afghans in charge", by Roger Carstens, The AFPAK Channel - Foreign Policy, February 2, 2102 for more on how senior (O-6 level) commanders need to become the supporting unit instead of the supported unit.

The Afghan Local Police may be an option for downsizing the Afghan army.  Perhaps a plan could be devised to discharge Afghan soldiers from the Army but sign them up for the newly-formed Afghan Local Police or ALP. Prior to his discharge the soldier is enlisted into the ALP by the Ministry of Interior (MOI).  He undergoes police training (currently ALP members receive 3 weeks training) and then returns to his local village or community. The pay of an ALP member is significantly less and the logistical support required (food, housing, fuel, transportation, etc.) for the ALP member is very little - he lives at home and feeds himself.  His equipment consists of a uniform, AK-47, ammo pouches, radio, and some other inexpensive items.  Plus the ALP gets a trained and combat experienced infantryman who has been vetted with the national government.

If the U.S. combat forces are going to switch to an advisory role then now would be the time to train up the next few rotations on how to be advisors.  A certain amount of these advisors that would deploy in 2013 and 2014 should be allocated to an advisory role for the Afghan Local Police (ALP).  Currently a large proportion of the Special Operations Forces in Afghanistan are advising and training the Afghan Local Police under the Village Stability Operations (VSO) initiative.  Unfortunately there are only so many SOF teams and they are currently maxed out.  For the ALP to grow - especially if demobilized Afghan soldiers from a down-sized ANSF are integrated into it - more advisors will be needed. Advising a local police unit in remote and austere locations at the village level is very different than advising company or battalion sized units located on large compounds.

So what is a possible solution?  As we move towards the end of 2014 the Afghan security forces of 350,000 (which we can't afford) should enlist a significant amount of their force (100,000?) into the Afghan Local Police.  A portion of the U.S. units scheduled to deploy to Afghanistan in 2013 and 2014 should start training now to be advisors to the Afghan Local Police here in the states (learn language, culture, police functions, etc); and the future ALP advisors training should have oversight from SOF teams that have conducted this ALP advisory and training mission on their rotations over the past few years.