The COIN Curve

Reading a recent news article this morning I was introduced to a new phrase - "The COIN Curve".  It appears, based on the explanation provided in the article, that in a counterinsurgency the level of violence will increase before it gets better - meaning the violence level goes down.  This is caused by a number of factors - and in Afghanistan can be attributed to two major factors (I am sure there are more than two but these come to mind right now).  New troops - "the surge" - are introduced into traditional Taliban sanctuaries and the level of fighting increases.  As the pressure mounts on the Taliban as a result of an increased optempo the level of violence increases across the board - more Taliban are being engaged more frequently. An example of the increase in violence, as the article points out, is the increase in security incidents during January - a month where the "winter recess" means the Taliban return to their safe havens in Pakistan or to their homes in Afghanistan.

Level of Security Incidents in January:

January 2008 - 100
January 2009 - 200
January 2010 - 400
January 2011 - 700 (this is just in the first week of January)

So, there you have it.  "The COIN Curve" explained.  Hopefully in January 2012 we will see the downward trend begin?

See "Petraeus blames 75% increase in violence on mild Afghan winter", The Examiner, January 15, 2011.