Afghan War Blog

Monday, December 22, 2014

Daily News Snippets (Dec 22, 2014)

Four Released Prisoners. An article posted by Eurasia Review (Dec 20, 2014) by Andy Worthington states that the four recent prisoners released from Guantanamo Bay U.S. military detention facilty are insignificant and probably should have been released years ago. The four have been repatriated to Afghanistan. The four detainees were flown to Kabul in a U.S. military plane and released to Afghan authorities. More details are provided in an article by Radio Free Europe (Dec 22, 2014) and in an article by The Telegraph (Dec 21, 2014). You can also read the news release by the DoD in "Detainee Transfer Announced" (Dec 20, 2014).

Drones. For over a decade American defense contractors have dominated the business of building UAVs or drones. However, the Americans are seeing some competition from across the Atlantic. The U.K. is stepping in the fray (The Motley Fool, Dec 20, 2014).

The Polish President, Bronislaw Komorowski, has approved the deployment of up to 150 military personnel to Afghanistan in 2015. (Radio Poland, Dec 19, 2014).

Afghan Cabinet. The picking of the Afghan cabinet has been a slow and laborious process. There are a lot of interest groups on all the issues that need consulting. President Ghani is eager to build a meritocratic government and move away from the corruption that characterized former President Karzai's government. Read more in "Afghan Leader's Two-Man Government Raises Concerns", ABC News, December 20, 2014.

Romania. The country of Romania will be sending an extra 450 troops to Afghanistan. Romania will provide advisors in addition to troops who will provide force protection to the Kandahar airport and military base in southern Afghanistan. (Radio Free Europe, Dec 21, 2014).

7 Afghan Local Police Killed. Seven members of the ALP were killed by the Taliban at a police outpost in Qush Tepa district of Jowzjan province. There were seven more ALP wounded in the evening raid. (Los Angeles Times, Dec 21, 2014).

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Sunday, December 21, 2014

Commentator on "Right Thing to Do"

Captain Robert Newson, a Naval Special Warfare (SEAL) officer has penned an article about "doing the right thing" for our Afghan allies. Specifically, the Afghan interpreters who risked their lives assisting the U.S. military during combat operations. He calls for the U.S. Congress to pass comprehensive visa legislation to increase the number of authorized visas for Afghan interpreters, expanding the application window, and to fully fund its execution to include rapid processing and resettlement. He also proposes new legislation to enhance the "Military Accessions Vital to National Interest (MAVNI). MAVNI is a program that would benefit the former interpreters (gives them a job) and provides the U.S. military with talented personnel useful in counterinsurgency environments (insurgencies are NOT going away). Read more in "In the Last Days of Afghanistan, To Many Shadows of Vietnam", Defense in Depth Blog, Council on Foreign Relations, December 17, 2014.

Pakistan's Ties to Militant Groups

While Pakistan is suffering from attacks from Taliban militants it is - at the same time - supporting Taliban militants attacking Afghanistan. The Pakistanis are outraged when over 100 people are killed in a Pakistani schoolhouse (rightly so). Yet Pakistan is strangely silent when a suicide bomber belonging to a Taliban group supported by Pakistan kills over 80 people (some children) at a volleyball match in Afghanistan. Read more in "Pakistan's ties to militant groups complicates its terrorism fight", Los Angeles Times, December 19, 2014.

Women on Front Lines - "A Politically-Correct Mistake"

Some British military figures have condemned the move to allow women to fight on the front line as a "politically-correct mistake". Some question whether women have the 'killer instinct' and others point out that 99% of women lack the upper body strength to pass the physical fitness tests that males must successfully pass. Read more in a news article in The Independent (Dec 19, 2014).

ISAF Legal Update on BSA and NATO SOFA

The ISAF legal office has published an online update and Fact Sheet on the Bilateral Security Agreement and NATO SOFA as it applies to contractors.

"Office of Legal Advisor gives update on BAS, NATO SOFA implementation", ISAF News, December 19, 2014.
www.isaf.nato.int/article/isaf-news/office-of-legal-advisor-gives-update-on-bsa-nato-sofa-implementation.html

ISAF / USFOR-A BAS/SOFA FAQs (Dec 14, 2014).
www.isaf.nato.int/images/media/PDFs/141214bsasofafaq.pdf

McCain: A-10 to Stay Awhile

Senator McCain, the incoming Armed Services Committee chairman, says that the A-10 will be around for a little while longer. Certainly this is good news for the Army; which, although it wants to leave counterinsurgency fights behind it, will certainly find itself engaged in COIN efforts like Afghanistan in the future. The A-10, besides being an extremely effective tank killer, provides great close air support. This, of course, is bad news for the Air Force leadership. The Air Force likes their very expensive shiny new toy (F-35) and wants to free up funds buy a lot more of them. Read more in "McCain vows A-10 fleet has a long life ahead", The Hill, December 19, 2014.

Review of London Conference

William Bryd, a development economist and senior expert on Afghanistan at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) has wrote an article (Dec 19, 2014) about the London Conference recently held in the United Kingdom. This conference was an important event for the future of Afghanistan. While the results of the conference were diminished because the Afghan government had not yet been formed; many positive gains were made and negative events averted. Read more in "Afghanistan: Struggling for Momentum in London".

Good News on Afghanistan

It is easy to be pessimistic about Afghanistan. We have spent tons of money and many of our military members have lost their lives or suffered life-long injuries. And for all of that we still have an enduring insurgency, outrageous corruption, a thriving drug trade, and Afghan security forces that don't understand counterinsurgency. However, . . . a lot of good has come out of our very long stay in Afghanistan. Read more in "The good news in Afghanistan's Marshall Plan", by Mike Corones in Reuters, December 19, 2014.

Bergdahl Investigation Complete

The final results of the Army's review of the investigation into the capture (desertion) of SGT Bowe Bergdahl is complete. The investigation, concluded in October, was to determine whether he had deserted his post prior to his capture by the Taliban in 2009. The Army has reviewed the investigation and should be briefing DoD (SECDEF?) soon. The investigation was conducted by MG Kenneth Dahl. (The Hill, December 19, 2014).

Pakistan's False Narrative

The United States has spent over $28 billion in aid to Pakistan in an effort to assist the Pakistani government and military to confront the Taliban operating in their country. Unfortunately, despite protestations otherwise, the Pakistani's are very selective on which Taliban groups they attack. Read more in "America's $28-Billion Failure in Pakistan", The Atlantic, December 19, 2014.

European Union and Terrorism

Since 9/11 the European Union has worked hard to strengthen anti-terrorist laws and increase cooperation among member nations in the counter-terrorist fight. Read more in "US-EU Cooperation Against Terrorism - Analysis", Eurasia Review, December 19, 2014.

Daily News Snippets (Dec 21, 2014)

Rumor has it that President Ghani has ordered the security ministries (MoI, NDS, and MoD) to report to the national security advisor (Hanif Atmar) and not to the office of the president.

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has received a briefing on the security challenges, political landscape, and drug trade in Afghanistan. The briefing was conducted by the Chief of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) - Mr. Nicholas Haysom. Read more in a news report by Afghanistan Times (Dec 18, 2014).

Many Afghans seeking medical attention will travel to India. However, it is a journey that only some Afghan citizens can afford. The cost of medical care in India is rising - some say due to rising fees and others due to extortion practices. Some of the money goes to interpreters. Read more in "High Costs Burden Afghan Medical Patients in India", Tolo News, December 19, 2014.

Army Learning Concept 2015. The Army is changing up the learning experience for its Soldiers. Students will be learning about new concepts, immerse himself in the concept, and then shares that experience with others. There is a YouTube video posted by Military Review that explains the Army Learning Concept published on December 19, 2014.

According to the United Nations civilian deaths in Afghanistan have reached a new high. At least 3,188 Afghan civilians have been killed in the war with the Taliban in 2014 - making it the deadliest year on record for non-combatants. (The Huffington Post, Dec 19, 2014).

A news report says that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is moving in to compete with al Qaeda and the Taliban in the legendary region of Khorasan - which comprises Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Read "ISIS Targets Afghanistan Just as the U.S. Quits", The Daily Beast, December 19, 2014.

"Leaving Afghanistan: A Look Back in Photos" by Stars and Stripes.
www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/afghanistan

View pictures of Afghans working the saffron fields of Herat, Afghanistan (The Guardian, December 19, 2014).

Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) has published its "Thematic Dossier VII: Detentions in Afghanistan - Bagram, Transfer and Torture", December 20, 2014 available here.

Stars and Stripes has posted an article entitled "Rising casualty count takes toll on Afghanistan's veterans", December 19, 2014. Care for wounded veterans needs to improve.

The United Nations is reporting that casualties among Afghan civilians is up nearly 20 per cent in 2014 (UN News Centre, Dec 19, 2014).

Airstrikes targeting Pakistan Taliban continue in response to school massacre (The Washington Post, Dec 20, 2014).

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Saturday, December 20, 2014

DoD IG Report - ANA Logistics

The Department of Defense Inspector General has issued a report (December 19, 2014) entitled Assessment of U.S. Government and Coalition Efforts to Develop the Logistics Sustainment Capability of the Afghan National Army, Report No. DODIG-2015-047. The primary focus of the report was to evaluate the progress made by U.S. and Coalition forces to train, advise, and assist in the development of an enduring logistics sustainment capability for the ANA. The specific objective was to assess the planning and execution of logistical processes developed and implemented by the U.S. and Coalition Force in Afghanistan for the ANA.

The report contains 14 observations resulting in 28 recommendations. Some of the issues identified include the lack of ANA logistics planning capability, ANA equipment disposal processes, issues with the unity of effort among the Coalition staff, obtaining the required number of logistic advisors with the right experience and expertise, and planning for post-2014 contractor support.

There were a number of recommendations to include ensuring functional Security Force Assistance teams have the capability and resources required to continue effective development of ANA logistics, assist the ANA in procurement of contractor support, and providing oversight on the Regional Military Training Centers.

Read or download the report at the link below (Adobe Acrobat, 114 pages, 5 MBs).

www.dodig.mil/pubs/documents/DODIG-2015-047.pdf

CIA Analysis of HVT

According to a 2009 CIA analysis (it was secret until released by WikiLeaks) raids, drones strikes, and other types of military operations against high value Taliban targets had little overall effect. This was, in part, due to the militants ability to replace leaders. Some criticized the 'High Value Target" (HVT) operations as "whack-a-mole"; as soon as you hit one target, another pops up. In addition to the ease that the Taliban enjoyed in replacing leaders was the inability of the Afghan government to expand its counterinsurgency efforts throughout the country effectively. Perhaps the HVT operations would be more effective if done within the context of a successful COIN environment? Read more in "CIA analysis: 'high-value targeting' had limited effect against Taliban", The Washington Post, December 18, 2014.

New Afghan Control Center to Coordinate Security

A new security control center has been (or will be?) established to coordinate security forces and stop the upsurge in insurgent attacks in Kabul. The new control center will have the authority to command and coordinate a joint response by Afghanistan's army, police, and intelligence organizations in the event of an attack. Read more in "New control center to fight rise in attacks in Afghan capital", Reuters, December 18, 2014.

India, Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan

Most insurgencies are not ended through military means alone. When we evaluate the effectiveness of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) in conducting coutnerinsurgency - it is unlikely that the Taliban will be defeated. Sure . . . the ANSF can "overmatch" the Taliban on the battlefield when supported by fires and air support ("overmatch" is a favorite phrase of the U.S. military to lead you to believe the ANSF are winning). However, the ANSF can't do effective COIN and are unlikely to defeat the Taliban.

One of two things need to occur to end an insurgency; and many times, both. The first is the root causes of the insurgency need to be identified and addressed and the second is that negotiations with the insurgents need to take place. Afghanistan, being one of the poorest and most corrupt nations in the world, is a long way from being able to provide essential governmental services and good government - therefore it probably can't address the root causes in the near future. The track record for negotiations with insurgents thus far has not been good. Additionally, because the insurgents enjoy the protection of Pakistan, the key to negotiations with the insurgents is Pakistan.

One observer of the South Asian region explains the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan; and further, how India and China are involved and what these two nations can do to aid the negotiation process. Read "Afghanistan should not make a false choice - analysis", Eurasia Review, December 18, 2014.

Border Problems with Turkmenistan

It appears that not all is well along the Afghan-Turkmenistan border. Villagers in the northern Jowzjan province are concerned about encroachment of Turkmenistan border guards onto their agricultural lands. Read more in "Afghan Villagers Threaten to Attack Turkmenistan", Radio Free Europe, December 19, 2014.

DCGS-A TeT

The U.S. Army's Distributed Common Ground System - Army (DCGS-A) is a failed intelligence system that is slowly coming around as a result of very expensive modifications to the operating system and its software. In the past DCGS-A has been tagged as too complex and not fully operational by intelligence analysts working in the counterinsurgency environment in Afghanistan; and many preferred a less complicated and better suited commercially available system known as Palantir. To address the many deficits and training requirements of DCGS-A the Army is fielding "Tactical Engagement Teams" or "TeTs". The TeT is a team of subject matter experts from across the military intelligence corps who plan, coordinate, and execute training so that leaders and Soldiers understand the functionality of DCGS-A. The TeT training begins by focusing the intelligence professional on the tactics, techniques and procedures of employing and putting into action DCGS-A tools that specifically support the commander's decision-making cycle and processes. The entire concept is focused on supporting mission command. Read more in "Intelligence center develops DCGS-A tactical engagement teams to support mission command", Army.mil, December 16, 2014.

Daily News Snippets (Dec 20, 2014)

ISAF's deputy commander, LTG Carsten Jacobson, and other German soldiers visited a children's hospital in Kabul and presented a donation that will be used to finance daily operations and improvements to medical care. Read more in "German troops donate Ocktoberfest profits to Kabul children's hospital", ISAF News, December 17, 2014.

The war on terror is estimated to have cost the United States a lot of money. Read more in "Wars' Cost to U.S. Since the Sept. 11 Attacks: $1.6 trillion", Bloomberg News, December 19, 2014.

Pakistan is in close talks with Afghanistan to find ways to fight the Taliban. The government of Pakistan along with its military and intelligence services say they are in the lead in the fight against terror and insurgents. According to General Sher Mohammad Karimi, the Afghan chief of army staff, the Pakistani Army has assured Afghan leaders they want to fight against all terrorists. Read more in "Afghan Army Chief Sees Antiterror Cooperation with Pakistan", Gandhara Blog - Radio Free Europe, December 18, 2014.

Oh, . . . and in more news on that front you can read "Mumbai attacks 'mastermind' Lakhvi bailed in Pakistan", BBC News Asia, December 18, 2014. Read more about the Mumbai terror attacks.

Tolo News reports that there is more fighting in the Dawlat Shah district of Laghman province.

Tolo News is also reporting on the continuing fight in Dangam district in Kunar province. Reportedly, villagers in the district rose up against the Taliban - but the struggle is continuing and the villagers are requesting government assistance. The commander of the 2nd ANA Brigade, 201st Corps - Afzal Khan - states that his brigade has taken control of vital areas and are offering assistance. Read more in "ANSF Must Use all Abilities, Efforts to Defeat Insurgency: Salangi" (December 19, 2014).

A car bomb killed a police officer in Kabul on December 18th. Three other people were injured and the Taliban have claimed credit. (LA Times, Dec 17, 2014).

At a gathering of community leaders in Farah province in western Afghanistan the topic of education and its ties to insurgency was discussed. There, according to participants, seems to be a link between illiteracy and easy recruitment into the Taliban. Read more in "Education Link to Afghan Insurgency", Institute for War & Peace Reporting, December 18, 2014.

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Friday, December 19, 2014

Georgia Troops for Resolute Support

The country of Georgia has been a reliable and valued troop contributing nation during the ISAF mission. The country will continue its efforts on behalf of its allies and Afghanistan with its commitment to the Resolute Support mission. A reconnaissance company from the 4th Mechanized Brigade of the Georgia Armed Forces is heading to northern Afghanistan to serve as part of the Train Advise and Assist Command - North under German leadership. The Georgian company of about 170 soldiers will be the rapid reaction force at Camp Marmal near Mazar-e-Sharif. The country has committed about 700 troops to the Resolute Support mission. The 51st Light Infantry Battalion is serving at Bagram Air Field - having deployed there in November 2014. Read more in "Georgian Troops Head to Mazar-i-Sharif", Civil Daily News Online, December 16, 2014.

Peace Talks May Resume

There is a possibility that peace talks may soon resume between the government of Afghanistan and insurgent groups. This is good news to some observers who note that most insurgencies are not won by military means - and many are negotiated settlements. However, negotiations with the Taliban have generally been fruitless. But I suppose attempts should be made. According to a senior member of the Afghan High Peace Council peace talks should start up again in Qatar next week. The Afghan Taliban maintain a contact office in Qatar. Representatives from Pakistan will also be in attendance. The Afghan media report that China may have representatives attending as well; an interesting development. Read more in "Peace Talks with Afghan Taliban Expected to Resume", Gandhara Blog, December 18, 2014.

French Soldier View of US Soldier

A French soldier has wrote a piece about his time serving with alongside a unit of the 101st Airborne Division in Afghanistan. He is highly complimentary of the U.S. Soldiers. Read "A French Soldier's View of US Soldiers in Afghanistan", Warrior Lodge, December 15, 2014.

Finnish Projects in Afghanistan at Risk

Finland devoted large amounts of money, time and effort to the Coalition mission in Afghanistan. Much of the Finnish work was done in northern Afghanistan. However, some of that work is coming undone. Insurgents have destroyed some of Finland's development aid projects and taken over others (to include district police stations). The Taliban have taken control of areas previously patrolled and secured by Finnish troops. The province of Faryab, once a Finnish occupied area (the Finns left in 2007), is now partially controlled by the Taliban. Read more in "Finnish development projects under fire in Afghanistan", Yle Uutiset (Finland media), December 18, 2014.

Afghan Spy Chief Explains Problems

The head of the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) says that with the departure of Coalition forces there is now a vacuum in the intelligence-gathering field. In testimony before the lower house of the Afghan parliament the NDS chief says that loss of intelligence is a result of inadequate manpower and a lack of technology. The drones, SIGINT, surveillance balloons, HUMINT networks, and intel fusion capability that the Coalition had when there were 150,000 ISAF troops spread across the country is now gone. Read more in "Afghan spy chief laments intelligence vacuum as foreign troops leave", Reuters, December 17, 2014.

Taliban Bank Siege Ends in Helmand

The Afghan security forces ended an insurgent attack against a bank branch in Helmand province. Five civilians, one police officer, and two ANA soldiers were killed. Fourteen others were injured. Read more in "Police: Afghan forces end Taliban bank siege in Helmand province", CNN World, December 17, 2014.

Customs Officials Largely Corrupt

Tolo News reports in a news article that there is widespread corruption in Afghanistan's customs system (big surprise there!). The customs operation is coming under scrutiny as a result of the new National Unity Government crackdown on corruption. It is hoped that if corruption with the customs officials can be lessened the government will begin to decrease its revenue shortfall. Custom officials are the source of the problem and widespread firings need to take place. Afghan businessmen are routinely expected to pay bribes to get goods into Afghanistan. Read more in "Experts Say Customs Agents are Main Source of Corruption", Tolo News, December 17, 2014.

SIGAR Report on Afghan Women

The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has issued a report entitled Afghan Women: Comprehensive Assessments Needed to Determine and Measure DOD, State, and USAID Progress, SIGAR 15-24 Audit Report, December 2014. The report states that there is no comprehensive assessment available to confirm that gains have been made in the status of women as a direct result of U.S. efforts. Together, DoD, State, and USAID spent over $64 million on over 650 projects, programs, and initiatives to support Afghan women from 2011 to 2013. SIGAR found there is a lack of accountability in the programs because none of the three agencies (DOD, State, and USAID) have effective mechanisms for tracking the funding associated with the women's projects. The report contains a number of recommendations on the way forward. Read the report at the link below:

www.sigar.mil/pdf/audits/SIGAR-15-24-AR.pdf

EU Extends Police Mission

The Council of the European Union has extended the mandate of the European Union Police Mission in Afghanistan until December 31, 2016 - for two more years. It also approved a budget of 58 million Euros for the mission for the year 2015. EUPOL Afghanistan will support the efforts of the Government of Afghanistan to strengthen its civilian police service, improve the rule of law framework, and uphold human rights. Read more in a news report by Khaama Press, December 18, 2014.

Afghan's Millionaires

There is tremendous poverty in Afghanistan yet there are an abundance of millionaires. Some Afghans became rich because of their ability to manipulate the government system and steal money. Others became rich as a result of hard work and good business sense. Read a news article about "Afghanistan's New Millionaires", Bloomberg Business Week, December 18, 2014.

Interview - NPR Speaks to J. Sopko

National Public Radio (NPR) interviews John Sopko, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, about Afghan corruption. Listen to the four minute audio tape on NPR. "Fight Against Corruption in Afghanistan Press On", NPR, December 18, 2014.

Daily News Snippets (Dec 19, 2014)

It looks like former President Karzai is busy forming up a political opposition. This is unfortunate. He should just go away to his villas in Dubai and let Afghanistan move on to a better future.

Khaama Press reports that 5 Taliban insurgents were blown up by their own explosives in Herat. I hate when that happens! :)

News reports indicate that the Pakistan head of the ISI was recently in Afghanistan asking for assistance in defeating the "Bad Taliban". No word on whether the ISI will stop supporting the Haqqani Network. Time will tell. Learn more in a post on CNN (Dec 18, 2014).

Along the same lines some observers see ISI's ambiguous approach towards different groups in effort to counter Indian influence as fueling attacks. Read more in "Pakistani spy agency's relations with militants blamed for school massacre", The Guardian, December 17, 2014.

Afghan press are covering stories saying that 59 suspected insurgents were recently arrested in Kabul. Other reports indicate that a bicycle bomb went off near a Kapisa police hqs wounding 3 people. It appears that some suspects have been arrested in the recent killing of the Supreme Court Chief Secretary. The fight between the Taliban and government forces is continuing in Dangam district in eastern Afghanistan.

Decades of war have devastated the Afghan hand-knotted carpet industry. A new public-private initiative will help traditional artisans to rebuild the supply chain to provide raw materials. Read more in "Bringing a supply chain back to life in Afghanistan", Supply Chain Quarterly, December 17, 2014.

Many are predicting that the Afghan economy will fall apart with the departure of Coalition troops and diminished funding from international donors. Read more in a news report by Mother Jones (Dec 17, 2014).

WikiLeaks has released a classified CIA study that casts doubt on the effectiveness of drone attacks against insurgents. Read more in "Drone strikes counterproductive, says secret CIA report", The Sydney Morning Herald, December 19, 2014.

The Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) improperly collected information through unauthorized surveillance of U.S. citizens and companies. Read more in "Pentagon's IED unit improperly collected intel", USA Today, December 18, 2014.

There are changes afoot in the world of U.S. Army aviation. The regular Army is switching out one type of aircraft for another with the Army National Guard. Read more in "Army Details Future Controversial Helicopter Swap", Defense One, December 18, 2014.

The Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction (SIGAR) is investigating a Pentagon task force that spent a significant amount of money to develop the country's gem industry. It appears that the Task Force for Business and Stability Operations might be involved in "imprudent spending". Read more in a news article in The Hill (Dec 16, 2014).

German lawmakers have approved the continued Afghanistan training mission for the Bundeswehr. The German Army has the led for the Train, Advise, and Assist Command North (northern Afghanistan).

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Thursday, December 18, 2014

Paper - "Rethinking Victory in Counterinsurgency"

Colonel Michael C. Griffin, a USMC officer, has wrote a paper entitled "Rethinking Victory in Counterinsurgency". He suggests replacing the term "victory" with "success". According to Griffin victory is almost always unobtainable in a counterinsurgency but success - an endstate that can be defined in many different ways - is sometimes obtainable. He subscribes to the theory that counterinsurgency is 80% political and 20% military (I am in strong agreement with him on this point). He further states that defeating an insurgency or at least achieving a political solution that causes the insurgency to go away requires eliminating the "root causes" of the insurgency. (He is right again!). This is a very good paper that places counterinsurgency in its proper context; especially in light of the events in Iraq and Afghanistan this past year (2014). The paper (Adobe Acrobat PDF, 42 pages, 1.2 MBs big) was published in October 2014 by the United States Army War College Press, Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania and is available to read online or download at the link below.

http://pksoi.army.mil/Publications/Papers/Griffin%20monograph.pdf

EU Says Widespread Fraud in Afghan Election

A report by European Union election observers states that widespread fraud took place during the Afghan presidential elections. It says that over 1/4 of the votes cast came from polling stations with voting irregularities. More than 2.3 million votes during the runoff came from polling sites in which more than 95 per cent of the votes went to one candidate. The European Union's chief observer for the Afghan election, Thijs Berman, said of the fraud - "That is a North Korea situation". Read more in "E.U. Confirms Wide Fraud in Afghan Presidential Runoff Election", The New York Times, December 16, 2014.

Pakistan ISI Support Backfires?

Columnists are focused on Pakistan in light of the massacre of school children by the "Bad Taliban" (Tehriki-i-Taliban Pakistan). One observer asks if the Pakistan ISI support for the "Good Taliban" has backfired. Read more in "Peshawar school attack: Has Pakistan ISIS 'secret support for Taliban' backfired?", International Business Times, December 16, 2014.

CSIS Report on Afghan Forces

The Center for Strategic & International Studies has published a report (17 Nov 2014) entitled "Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition - Volume IV". The study summarizes the key policies and metrics and provides considerable insight into the success of the transition and the capability of the ANSF to defeat the Taliban. The report also examines the ". . . growing emphasis on "spin" and the public relations efforts to sell progress at the expense of realism and objectivity - often by simply ceasing to report metrics that have proved to be embarrassing in the past". (Ouch!). The study, divided into four different parts, focuses on 1) US policy and cuts on US forces and spending; 2) sharply contradictory data on levels of violence, 3) measuring the transition from ISAF to ANSF, and 4) progress in Afghan force development. You can read an abstract of the report and download the report at the link below:

http://csis.org/publication/afghan-forces-edge-transition-iv

U.S. is "Horrible in Influence Operations"

The U.S. is horrible in conducting influence operations. This is something that I have posted about for the last couple of years. But don't listen to me. None other than the head of the United States Army Special Operations Command (USASOC), LTG Cleveland, says as much (see the news article linked to below). It is worth noting that the United States had three lines of effort in countering the Taliban insurgency: security, governance and development. USASOC is closely tied in with all three of these lines of effort with its seven Special Forces Groups, schoolhouse for Unconventional Warfare (SWCS), Ranger Regiment, SOF Aviation, and its 95th Civil Affairs Brigade. The CA bubbas being "experts" at governance and development and the SF dudes knowing a whole lot about establishing security; and a little bit about governance and development with their experience in Village Stability Operations (VSO).

To a degree, there was a lot accomplished in all of three areas (security, development and governance) despite the obvious obstacles (Karzai, corruption, drug trade, sanctuaries in Pakistan, etc.). Where there was inadequate effort put forth was in the Information Operations arena - now referred to as "Inform and Influence and Activities". Of course, USASOC plays a big role in this field as well - since it commands the 4th Military Information Support Group.

An online news article explores this topic (the importance of IO or IAA) in greater detail. Read more in "Killing is Not Enough: Special Operators", by Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr, in Breaking Defense, December 16, 2014.

CFR - "Behind Pakistan's Taliban War"

Daniel S. Markey, a Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia for the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), is interviewed on the topics of Pakistan, the "Good Taliban", and what the future holds in light of the recent killings of over 100 school children in Pakistan. Read "Behind Pakistan's Taliban War", Council on Foreign Relations, December 17, 2014.

Max Boot: "Pakistan: Incubator of Evil"

Military historian and book author Max Boot says it is time to recognize Pakistan for what it is - "An Incubator of Evil". He says that the recent killings of school children in a Pakistani school is a case of a self-inflicted wound. Boot points out that you cannot support Taliban extremists to attack Americans and Afghans in Afghanistan and not see the same type of attacks come back at you. Read more in "Pakistan: Incubator of Evil", Commentary Magazine, December 16, 2014.

Afghanistan Index by Brookings

The "Afghanistan Index" by Brookings tracks the progress and security in a post-9/11 Afghanistan. The document is updated every month and posted on the Brookings website. The index is a statistical compilation of economic, public opinion and security data. The resource provides updated and historical information on various data, including crime, infrastructure, casualties, unemployment, Afghan security forces and coalition troop strength.

www.brookings.edu/about/programs/foreign-policy/afghanistan-index

Daily News Snippets (Dec 18, 2014)

A former employee of a U.S. contractor was indicted for allegedly soliciting and accepting bribes for his influence in awarding U.S. government-funded contracts in Afghanistan. Read more in a news release by the U.S. Department of Justice (Dec 16, 2014).

Insurgents attacked a bank in the southern province of Helmand on Wednesday, December 17, 2014 killing at least ten people including three policemen. (CBS News, Dec 17, 2014).

Dr. Rajiv Shah, Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development is moving on. Read an online statement by Secretary of State John Kerry. (DoS, Dec 17, 2014).

The Taliban have mounted an offensive in Dangam district, Kunar province near the Pakistani border. Read more in a Stars and Stripes report (Dec 16, 2014).

U.S. airstrikes are attacking Pakistani and Afghan Taliban in the eastern province of Nangarhar. Read more in a post by The Long War Journal (Dec 17, 2014).

The killing of over one hundred children by the Pakistani Taliban has brought to the forefront the fact that there are "Good Taliban" and "Bad Taliban". The "Good Taliban" are the groups supported by the Pakistani intelligence agency (ISI) and the Pakistani military. The "Bad Taliban" are the groups conducting attacks against the Pakistan military. Read more on this topic in "How the Pakistani Taliban became a deadly force", The News York Times, December 16, 2014.

U.S. Army Special Forces leaders are confident that the Afghan National Security Forces will do well after the withdrawal of combat troops by the International Security Assistance Force. MG Edward Reeder, the commander of SOJTF-A in Afghanistan stated "Our partnered forces have never lost a fight." Read more in "U.S. forces have prepared Afghans for success", Fayetteville Observer, December 17, 2014.

A United Kingdom diplomat who served two years in Afghanistan as the British Ambassador to Afghanistan had some critical comments about the British politicians overseeing the war effort from London. Read more in "Collective self-delusion: UK diplomat slams Afghanistan strategists", RT.com, December 17, 2014.

The Pakistani Army Chief visited Kabul where he apologized for Pakistan's support to the Taliban. NOT! Just kidding! He actually visited with President Ghani for talks and the two vowed to fight terrorism and extremism together. Read more in "Pakistani Army Chief in Kabul, Vows to Fight Taliban", Radio Free Europe, December 17, 2014.

NATO is wrapping up the ISAF era and paid tribute to the ISAF mission at a recent gathering. See a NATO news release on the topic. (Dec 17, 2014).

Contractors will continue to play an important role in the force structure that remains in Afghanistan. That will diminish the reduction in the budget for Afghanistan. (Fayetteville Observer, Dec 17, 2014)

Representatives of women's groups in the fight for the rights of Afghan women are saying unkind words about the international donors who recently met at the London Conference. Read a news story by members of Human Rights Watch in "Women fighting for justice in Afghanistan are treated with contempt by foreign donors", International Business Times, December 17, 2014.

DynCorp International (Texas) was awarded a $42 million contract modification for OEF aviation maintenance support.

CACI of Arlington, Virginia is being awarded a $38 million contract for joint geospatial analytical support services in support of U.S. Special Operations Command. The work goes out to December 2015 and takes place in Florida and around the world.

Much attention has been focused on the massacre of children in Pakistan by the "Bad Taliban". Some of that attention is being directed at the government of Pakistan - folks are asking what the government will do in the future. Pakistan's covert policy of supporting the Afghan Taliban is being questioned as well as actions to be taken against the "Bad Taliban". Unfortunately, the jihadi militants occupying the 'ungoverned areas' of Pakistan do not have neat lines separating the "good" from the "bad". As one former Secretary of State (who I will not name because I am not fond of her) said ". . . you can't keep snakes in your backyard and expect them to only bite your neighbors". Read more in "Pakistan's Tolerance of Jihadis Backfires Badly", The Huffington Post, December 17, 2014.