Afghan War Blog

Friday, October 10, 2014

Amnesty International Protests Hanging of Five Afghans

Amnesty International is calling the recent hanging of five Afghan men an "affront to justice". The five men were convicted of armed robbery and zina (sex outside of marriage) - the crimes were committed against four women who were raped within earshot of their captive husbands. The executions were the first in Afghanistan in 2014. The trials proceeded rather quickly, some critics say in response to the public demand for a speedy resolution, and Amnesty International is questioning the proceedings. The men were first sentenced on September 7th. Their sentence was upheld in an appeals court on September 15th and by the Afghan Supreme Court on September 24th. Of course, Amnesty International is opposed to the death penalty no matter how fair the trial is so . . . Read more in "Afghanistan: Execution of five men an affront to justice", Amnesty International, October 8, 2014.

13 Year Anniversary of Afghan War

America's longest war just had its 13th anniversary. On October 7, 2001 the United States commenced combat operations against the Taliban regime. The first day of the war involved airstrikes by US and British forces against Taliban installations, communications nodes, and training camps. Cruise missiles were launched from three U.S. Aegis cruisers and one destroyer as well as Tomahawk cruise missiles from British and American submarines. In addition, F/A-18s, B-1s, B-2s and B-52s conducted bombing runs. There were small detachments of U.S. Army Special Forces (and the occasional CIA agent) infiltrated to work alongside elements of the Northern Alliance. Read more in a news article posted by the Business Insider on October 7, 2014.

1742nd Transportation Company Completes Afghan Tour

The 1742nd Transportation Company of the South Dakota Army NG returned home from their long tour in Afghanistan. Their nine-month deployment involved providing transportation and convoy security support, supply and service functions, and assisting with the draw down and retrograde across Afghanistan. The majority of the Soldiers were stationed at Kandahar Air Field (KAF) in southern Afghanistan. Read about the Soldiers accomplishments in "1742nd Soldiers welcomed home from Afghanistan", DVIDS, October 8, 2014.

Afghan Death Toll at 13 Years

As of Tuesday, October 7, 2014 at least 2,207 members of the United States military had died as as a result of a deployment to Afghanistan (count by Associated Press). 1,826 of those deaths were the result of hostile action. Over 20,000 were wounded in Afghanistan; some very seriously with life-long injuries. See "US Military Deaths in Afghanistan at 2,207", ABC News, October 7, 2014.

Fate of 3 AWOL Afghans Still Undecided

The three Afghan soldiers who left training in Cape Cod in an attempt to travel to Canada are awaiting their fate in an immigration court. They are being held in the Federal Detention Center in Batavia, New York pending their hearing. See "Bail hearing in Batavia for Afghan soldiers", WIVB.com, October 8, 2014.

German Soldiers 'Stranded' in Afghanistan

The German military's ability to transport equipment and troops is getting some bad press. Seems the Luftwaffe is hurting with problems getting its jet fighters into the air and mechanical breakdowns of its cargo and troop transports. Many of the German Soldiers stationed in northern Afghanistan are having difficulty taking their mid-tour leave and that is causing some problems (Their tours are 4-6 months long and they can head home for a break from the action; usually in the middle of their long tour). Read more in "German soldiers 'stranded' in Afghanistan as more planes breakdown", The Telegraph, October 1, 2014.

U.S. Airstrikes Increase in Afghanistan

The air war in Afghanistan has been heating up. More airstrikes were conducted during the month of August than in any single month in the past two years. There are probably many reasons for this. ISAF is closing a lot of bases so the increase in convoys conducting retrograde of personnel and equipment required additional air support. July and August are typically the most active for the Taliban (something about fighting in hot weather) so the number of airstrikes to support ISAF and Afghan security forces would naturally be high. In addition, the Taliban (far from being defeated on the battlefield) were taking it to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) this year. 2014 saw a 30% increase in casualties for the ANSF. There were 436 weapon releases for August 2014 compared to an average of 150 in the previous seven months. Read more in "US intensifies Afghan airstrikes as drawdown nears", The Boston Globe, October 8, 2014.

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Thursday, October 9, 2014

4th C-130 for AAF On Hold

The 4th C-130 scheduled to be deployed to the Afghan Air Force (AAF) is now on hold pending a review by the Department of Defense (DoD) of the AAF's medium-airlift requirement and its ability to fully use the existing C-130s before providing the additional capabilities. An investigation conducted by the office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) found that the utilization rate of the first two C-130s delivered was at 48 percent of their flight-hour capacity. This prompted an evaluation of whether a third (and fourth) C-130 was needed. The potential savings to the U.S. taxpayer of not delivering the 4th C-130 is over $40 million. Read a letter from SIGAR to Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel on this topic (October 6, 2014).

AAF's Light Air Support (LAS) Aircraft

Daniel Goure, a military correspondent and Vice President of the Lexington Institute, has penned an article about the Afghan Air Force (AAF) and the acquisition of twenty Light Air Support (LAS) aircraft. He provides some background on the real need for air support for the Afghan ground forces and some of the problems associated with getting the personnel trained up and the aircraft off the factory floor. You can read his article entitled "The Afghan Air Force Rises from the Ashes", Real Clear Defense, October 7, 2014.

Pub - AOC, Win in a Complex World, TRADOC Pamplet 535-3-1, 7 Oct 14

Training and Doctrine Command has published TRADOC Pamplet 525-3-1, Army Operating Concept: Win in a Complex World 2020-2030, 7 October 2014. The AOC describes how future Army forces will prevent conflict, shape security environments, and win wars. The AOC guides future force development by identifying first order capabilities that the Army needs to support U.S. policy objectives. The pub provides the intellectual foundation and framework for learning and applying what we learn to future force development under Force 2025 and Beyond. There are four chapters in this publication.

Chapter 1. "Introduction" covers purpose, references, abbreviations and terms, relationship b/t Army doctrine and concepts, and assumptions.
Chapter 2. "Operational Context" covers continuity and change, Army's missions, threats, future operational environment, future conflict, etc.
Chapter 3. "How Future army Forces Operate". Military problem, central idea, how the Army operates, tenets, core competencies, etc.
Chapter 4. "AOC Conclusion".

Should be great Sunday morning reading for all you doctrinal Nazi's . . . and for all others who want to know what the doctrinal experts are talking about.

www.tradoc.army.mil/tpubs/pams/TP525-3-1.pdf

Analysis - "Do Drones Have a Future?"

A lengthy analysis was posted on October 7, 2014 on the War on the Rocks website entitled "Do Drones Have a Future?" The bottom line is that the future ". . . looks less favorable". The article states that budget cuts and bureaucratic resistance are cutting back on the growth of drones. The article provides a summary of the drones within each service (Air Force, Army, Navy and Marines) and some of the needs, gaps, and issues associated with the services. Some snippets of the article follow. The Air Force, despite training a huge number of drone pilots, does not have good promotion futures for drone operators. The Navy is having some problems with the roll-out of its Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike (UCLASS) aircraft. (I think the acronym hurts the program!). The Marines need a sea-based system similar to the Predator or Reaper to support their expeditionary operations. The Army, surprisingly, seems to be in the lead in terms of innovation - take note of its manned-unmanned teaming concept pairing up UAVs with Apache helicopters. The article also addresses some of the cultural aspects of drone deployment and future technologies to be on the watch for. Very informative and worth a read!

4 More ANA Officers Go AWOL (Italy)

Four Afghan National Army (ANA) officers have gone missing from a warfare course in Italy. They were among 20 Afghan officers attending a course provided by the Italian Army. The good news is that only 25% of the class went missing.

Final GDP-ISAF Rotation w/ Republic Georgia Armed Forces

"KRTSANISI NATIONAL TRAINING CENTER, Republic of Georgia – Marines and Sailors from Georgia Training Team, Marine Forces Europe and Africa, are nearing the end of their six month deployment supporting the Georgia Deployment Program- International Security Assistance Force. They are the final GTT to train a Battalion from the Georgian Armed Forces to support the ISAF mission in Afghanistan. Combat operations will conclude in Afghanistan later this year, and the mission will transition from ISAF to Resolute Support Mission. The RSM will focus on training, advising and assisting Afghan forces marking the beginning of a new chapter in ensuring that stability and security returns to the region."

An Analysis of Afghan War (Stephanie Gaskell)

Stephanie Gaskell, deputy editor and senior reporter for Defense One, provides us with her October 6, 2014 analysis of the Afghan War in Will Afghanistan Become the 'Forgotten War' Again?. She provides us with some facts and figures (how many deaths, how much money spent, etc.) and discusses the transition of the U.S. military from combat operations to the "train, advise, and assist" mission.

13 Afghan War Statistics

A newspaper in the United Kingdom, The Telegraph, has published an article with some facts and figures (statistics) on the Afghan War. Entitled "Afghanistan war in numbers" the October 7, 2014 news article cites 13 statistics about the war on the 13th anniversary of the start of the international campaign in Afghanistan (October 7, 2011). Figures include number of international troops that have died, # of troops still in Afghanistan, # of students enrolled in schools, etc.

Times Reporter Allowed to Return to Afghanistan

A New York Times reporter, Matthew Rosenberg, was expelled from Afghanistan this past summer because of some news that he reported that was unfavorable to Afghanistan. The new president, Ashraf Ghani, has reversed the decision and he is now allowed back in Afghanistan. President Ghani has certainly broke away from the former President Karzai in his actions and decisions. Within his first week he has signed the Bilateral Security Agreement (Karzai refused to sign), re-opened the Kabul Bank fraud investigation (one of Karzai's brothers was granted immunity by the former president), visited the Afghan National Army Special Operations Command (Karzai did not like the spec ops guys), and has come out strongly against corruption (Karzai, of course, was the biggest crook in Afghan history).

President Ghani Visits ANASOC

The new president of Afghanistan - Ashraf Ghani - paid a visit to the Afghan National Army Special Operations Command (ANASOC) along with Maj. Gen. Abul Sayed Karim during a visit to Camp Commando, Afghanistan. Camp Commando was at one time called Camp Morehead. The visit occured on October 6, 2014 just one week after the new president took office. Learn more about the Afghan National Army Special Operations Command. (Photo by SFC Daniel Shapiro, Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force - Afghanistan, October 6, 2014).

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Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Afghan Air Force is Growing

The Afghan Air Force is growing but not to the extent that it can cover the gaps left by ISAF's air support going away. Its Mi-17s are still not able to perform the various types of air support in the amount needed by the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police - MEDEVACs, personnel movements, air resupply, and aerial ISR. The close air support aircraft is the Mi-35 HIND Attack Helicopter - of which there are eleven and only half of those can actually fly. The Mi-35s are old and will reach the end of their life by 2016. Most pilots don't fly at night (they lack the night vision and training required). Maintenance is still a concern - much of it is contracted to foreign mechanics. The fixed-wing transport part of the Afghan Air Force is negligible - with only three C-130s and a handful of the smaller C-208 Caravans. The fleet of C-27As never really got into the air and they are now being scrapped. Read more in "Mustering the air power for Afghanistan", Defense Update, October 5, 2014.

Another Drone Book

It seems that there is an abundance of recently published books on drones. It is hard to keep track of them. I never realized just how many drone experts there were in the world. Yet another one is entitled Predator, the Secret Origins of the Drone Revolution by Richard Whittle - the book was released in September 2014. Whittle has also wrote a book called "The Dream Machine: The Untold History of the Notorious V-22 Osprey". Read a book review of Whittle's drone book here.

Pakistan Drone Attacks Continue

The United States is continuing drone attacks against targets in Pakistan. Two more drone strikes occurred in North and South Waziristan recently. Both areas are Taliban-controlled tribal agency areas. The drones, operated by CIA pilots, have been targeting al Qaeda and other insurgent targets in Pakistan. There have been only 11 drone strikes in Pakistan in 2014; all taken place in the last few months (none prior to June). Read more in a news article by The Long War Journal dated October 6, 2014.

5 Priorities for Afghanistan

Now that President Ghani has taken office various commentators, analysts, and observers are providing input as to what he needs to fix and in what order! Ahmad Majidar is a senior research associate at the American Enterprise Institute (www.aei.org). He also teaches senior U.S. military officers on security and politics in Afghanistan. He provides us with 5 priorities for Afghanistan.

1. Fostering national unity
2. Improving governance
3. Bolstering economy
4. Combating narcotics
5. Improving security

In his article he discusses the topics above in detail. He closes with ". . . the Obama administration, too, must avoid repeating the mistake of Iraq and reconsider its plan to pull out all troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2016".

Read the full article, "5 priorities for Afghanistan", Global Public Square Blog, October 7, 2014.
Learn more about Ahmad Majidar
www.aei.org/scholar/ahmad-k-majidyar/

A-10 Thunderbolt Provides CAS for Troops Below

The A-10 Thunderbolts, a 43 thousand pound machine, operate out of Bagram Air Field in Afghanistan. The jets provide close air support and overwatch for ground forces operating below. In the hyperlink article an A-10 pilot, Maj Vincent Sherer, describes mission preparation and the daily life he experiences in Afghanistan flying his aircraft. See "Safeguarding ground troops from above", DVIDS, October 6, 2014. (photo by Staff Sgt. Evelyn Chavez).

Kabul Bank Scandal Revisited

The brother of former President Karzai still owes millions of dollars to the Kabul Bank. Mahmud Karzai was listed as owing $22 million on loans from the Kabul Bank and has only paid back $13 million. As part of his immunity from prosecution he was supposed to pay back the entire loan to avoid prison time. He was spared prosecution under a decree by former President Karzai (his brother) as long as he returned the funds. So . . . does he cough up the other $10 million or does he go to jail? The new president (Ghani) has re-opened up the Kabul Bank investigation. Read more on this topic in "Afghan Watchdog Says Ex-Leaders' Brothers Owe in Bank Scandal", Radio Free Europe, October 7, 2014.

Millions $ Missing from Afghan Police Trust Fund

Millions of dollars are missing from an Afghan police trust fund that is used to pay Afghanistan's police force. The United Nations agency in charge of the funds seems to be unclear as to where the money went. The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has conducted an investigation and has some pointed questions about "irregularities" - and possible mismanagement and corruption. (Corruption in Afghanistan? A shocker!). There is some concern that some of the money is being used to pay 'ghost employees'. Read a news story for more info on this topic - "Millions of dollars go missing from Afghan police trust fund", MSNBC, October 6, 2014. Read a letter sent by SIGAR on September 17, 2014 to the head of the Combined Security Transition command - Afghanistan Ministerial Advisory Groups concerning this matter. It is not a pretty picture. The Afghan's are taking us for a ride!

Three Challenges Facing Afghan Government

There are three challenges facing the newly formed Afghan government (according to one observer). The first challenge is the question of legitimacy of the new government. The disappointing results of the presidential election (not in numbers of voters but in how the votes were tallied and the fraud committed) puts the validity of the government at stake. A second challenge is the relationship between the President and his appointed "Prime Minister". The PM job is not authorized under the constitution and it will be a few years before any amendments to the constitution are approved by a Loya Jirga. The third challenge is the redefinition of Afghanistan's foreign policy. It is dependent upon foreign aid and needs to keep the international community engaged in Afghanistan's future. Read more in "The Afghan Unity Government's Three Perils", The Diplomat, October 6, 2014.
http://thediplomat.com/2014/10/the-afghan-unity-governments-three-perils/

CJIATF 435 Shuts Down

Combined Joint Interagency Task Force (CJIATF) 435 has deactivated. The deactivation ceremony was held on September 29,2014 at Bagram Air Field (BAF). Its four-year mission training, advising, and assisting the Afghans in development of rule of law functions is over. It was also assisting the Afghan National Army in maintaining secure custody and humane treatment of detainees and U.S. Law of Armed Conflict detention operations during its five-year mission. Rule of Law (RoL) operations is not in the forefront of combat operations but is essential to create a stable Afghanistan. CJIATF 435 played a role in the establishment of the Afghan National Security Justice Center (NSJC) in Parwarn - a centralized location for pre-trial confinement, investigation, prosecution, and post-trial incarceration of insurgents threatening Afghanistan's national security. A Rule of Law Development Team (RoLDT) will assume many of the functions of CJIATF 435 - but on a smaller scale. The RoLDT will continue to mentor Afghan investigators, prosecutors, judges, and military police at the NSJC through 2016. (Source "CJIATF 435 holds inactivation ceremony", ISAF News, September 29, 2014).

PTSD in Australian Military

A recent news article states that Australian veterans of the Afghan conflict have yet to show the effects of PTSD and that the " . . . true impression of the psychological impact was yet to be revealed". Sometimes PTSD takes over 10 years to reveal itself as a problem that veterans will cope with. Read more in a news article by the Herald Sun.

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Tuesday, October 7, 2014

New NATO Secretary General

Mr. Jens Stoltenberg took up his post as NATO Secretary General on Wednesday, October 1, 2014. The former Norwegian Prime Minister was appointed by the 28 Allies in March 2104. Mr. Stoltenberg was previously Prime Minister of Norway from 2000-2001 and from 2005-2013. He is 55 years old, holds a postgraduate degree in Economics, was a member of Parliament, Minister (Finance and also Industry and Energy), and has worked for the United Nations. Read a NATO announcement here and his biography.

CSTC-A Has New Commander

The Combined Security Transition Command - Afghanistan (CSTC-A) conducted a change of command ceremony on October 4, 2014. The outgoing commander, MG Kevin Wendel, passed the baton to the incoming commander, MG Todd Semonite. CSTC-A is responsible for training, advising, and assisting (SFA) the Afghan national security organizations as part of the current ISAF mission and upcoming Resolute Support mission. (Source "CSTC-A welcomes new commander", ISAF NewsI, October 4, 2014.) Read more about Major General Todd T. Semonite in this biography posted on the website of the US Army Corps of Engineers. In looking at his biography it doesn't appear he has a previous tour in Afghanistan. Hmmmm . . . I wonder if that makes a difference? If he hasn't been to the wonderful country of sand and corruption then his staff will have to school him up on some basic stuff - like what the difference is between and "Afghan" and "Afghani".

Report - GAO Equipment Drawdown

The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) has published a report entitled Progress Made, but Improved Controls in Decision Making Could Reduce Risk of Unnecessary Expenditures, GAO-14-768, September 30, 2014. The report looks at the retrograde or destruction of equipment and vehicles and provides recommendations on how to save some money. A summary of the report is in quotes below. The report is available here - http://gao.gov/products/GAO-14-768.

"The Department of Defense (DOD) has made some progress in its drawdown of equipment from Afghanistan, but ongoing uncertainties about the future force in Afghanistan could affect progress of the drawdown. Specifically, from October 2012 to October 2013, DOD returned from Afghanistan or destroyed 14,664 vehicles, an average of 1,128 vehicles per month. Future progress toward drawdown goals will depend on equipment turn-in rates, which, in turn, depend on having more information about the post-2014 force level and mission. In addition, over the course of the last 8 months of the above period, the number of vehicles turned in by units for the drawdown averaged 55 percent of what had been forecast. This is because some vehicles that had been forecast for turn-in were instead redistributed to other units in Afghanistan. A senior DOD official stated that units have retained equipment because of uncertainty regarding future operational needs in Afghanistan. Once the post-2014 force level and mission are announced, these vehicle turn-in rates may increase."

COMISAF Meets with Ghani

(Photo by SSG Richard Sherba)

Army General John Campbell, the commander of ISAF, met with the new President of Afghanistan (PoA) on October 3, 2014. Ghani and Campbell got together and discussed improving security in Afghanistan and throughout the entire South Asia region. Let's hope that the relationship between Campbell and Ghani will be better than that between previous COMISAFs and Karzai. (Of course it will be! Karzai was extremely difficult to work with). Now if we can get through the next 100 days without a CIVCAS, "blue on civilian", or Koran burning incident the new COMISAF won't have to start off his relationship with the new PoA with rendering apologies. Following the example of General Joe Dunford, Campbell decided to wear his dress uniform (something that previous COMISAFs didn't do). Unfortunately the Marine Corps dress uniform looks a whole lot better than the Army dress uniform. Campbell should go back to multicams and just make an excuse up for his attire at his next PoA meeting ("Sorry, just got off the chopper on a BFC to 'insert location here' five minutes ago.").

A-10s Returning to Afghanistan

More A-10 Warthogs are being deployed to Bagram Air Field (BAF) located just north of Kabul, Afghanistan.This is part of a six-month deployment of the 122nd Fighter Wing of the Indiana Air National Guard. The A-10 is revered by ground troops because of its ability to withstand ground fire (it has titanium armor), fly low (enabling it to identity ground targets), loiter in an area for longer periods of time, and carry a heavier bomb load. There are 283 A-10s in the Air Force and the fighter jocks are trying their best to retire the extremely effective aircraft because . . . well, because it is not sexy and does close air support. Instead, the Air Force wants to field the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to do what the A-10 does very well. Read more in "U.S. Sending A-10 Plane to Combat While Trying to Kill It", Bloomberg News, October 2, 2014.

ANA Death Rate 30 % Higher

The Afghan army death rate rose 30 percent over the 2013 death rate. This is a result of several factors. First is that the Taliban have not been defeated and are just as strong as they ever have been. Second is that the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has reduced its combat power on the ground to the extent that almost all of the fighting is being done by the Afghan National Army (ANA) and some special units of the Afghan National Police (ANP). The biggest exception are the NSOCC-A units that operate alongside the Afghan special forces and special police units. In addition, the U.S. (and other NATO countries) provide close air support and medical evacuation on a very limited basis. Read more in "Afghan army death rate spikes 30 percent", Air Force Times, October 3, 2014.

Mi-17 Most Successful Helicopter?

A recent news blurb says that the Mi-17 may be the most successful helicopter of all time. The Russians have exported 3,500 of the export version of the Mi-17 helicopter to over 65 different countries. The Afghan Air Force will soon have 87 of the Mi-17s which conduct resupply, VIP transport, MEDEVACs, and personnel movements. Looks like the U.S. did something right in picking the Mi-17 for the Afghan Air Force! Read more in "Is The Mi-17 the Most Successful Helicopter of all Time?", DefenseWorld.net, October 3, 2014.

Political Meddling with Afghan Military May End

With the arrival of the Ghani administration in the Afghan government there is hope that the political meddling on the part of the President's office (that would be the former president Karzai) and his appointees will end. This diminished political meddling will increase the country's ability to conduct an effective counterinsurgency campaign against the Taliban. General John Campbell, the commander of the International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) in Afghanistan stated that "The last couple years, there's been some impediments to . . . " the leadership of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Comments made by other observers such as Marc Chretien, a former top political advisor in Afghanistan, reinforced the belief that there will be less political meddling in the affairs of the Afghan military. Read the entire story at "Afghan political meddling in military likely to end", USA Today, October 3, 2014.

Gen. Campbell - Slower Withdrawal Possible

General John Campbell, the commander of the International Security Assistance Force (COMISAF), says that he will reserve the right to recommend a slower withdrawal from Afghanistan if he thinks it is necessary. Current plans have troop levels down to 9,800 U.S. by the end of the year (2014). By the end of 2015 there will be about 5,000 troops left. By the end of 2017 almost all U.S. troops will have left except for a few at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul. He says that as time goes on he will make assessments and measure the risk to the force and the risk to the mission. Read more on this topic in "Gen. Campbell Will Recommend a Slower Drawdown in Afghanistan, if needed", Defense One, October 2, 2014.

Afghan Daily News at 5:00 am

Monday, October 6, 2014

COMISAF Briefing to DoD Press (2 Oct 14)

ISAF News has posted the transcript of General John Campbell's (COMISAF) press briefing to the DoD press corps on October 2, 2014. Some of his main points in his address covered the transition from the ISAF mission to Resolute Support, the political transition to the new president, and the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) and the NATO SOFA. He made his opening comments and then answered questions from the press. Snippets of the press conference are provided below.

He stated that there are currently a total of 40,000 troops on the ground (U.S. and other troop contributing nations) with aim of being down to 12,500 at the end of 2014. He sees 2015 as a train, advise and assist mission against four of the six ANA corps and at the ministerial level. The advising effort is no longer at the brigade or kandak level; but at the corps level and above. The remaining bases after 2014 will be in Jalalabad, Gamberi, Bagram, Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Kandahar, and Kabul. As COMISAF he has been focusing on " . . . the security institutions, the ministry of interior, the ministry of defense, the national security adviser, NDS, and then working with both President Ghani and Mr. Abdullah . . ."

He says that despite the late signing of the BSA - ISAF is still on a good glide path to get to the Resolute Support mission set. There are less than 30 bases left and many of those will close before the end of the year. He identified some shortfalls of the ANSF that need improvement - to include aviation, close air support, intelligence, logistics, and sustainment.

Campbell was asked if the U.S. will " . . . be in a position to provide air support to the ANSF after this year? And would that include both close-air support and medevac missions . . ." He pretty much dodged that question; although he indicated that there is diminished air support capability under Resolute Support.

He was asked about SIGARs reports on how US money is being spent and the lack of oversight; his response is they are working closely with SIGAR, the MoD, and MoI and have tightened up some of the oversight procedures to get more transparency.

The subject of Mi-17s for the Afghan Air Force was brought up by a reporter. Currently there are 84 Mi-17s in Afghanistan with a target of 87 (3 more to go). He calls the Mi-17s a "game changer".

You can read the transcript in full at the link below:
www.isaf.nato.int/article/isaf-news/dept.-of-defense-press-briefing-by-gen.-campbell-oct.-2-2014.html

Report - Losing the "Forgotten War"

Anthony H. Cordesman has penned a report entitled Losing the "Forgotten War": The Need to Reshape US Strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia. The report, published on October 1, 2014, is available here on the website of the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). (It is an Adobe Acrobat PDF, 76 pages long, and 3 MBs big). The report says that " . . . Afghanistan is still the forgotten war at a time when the Taliban is making steady gains, civilian casualties are rising, the Afghan economy is in crisis, and there still are no clear plans for any post-2014 aspect of transition". Aspects of the report include the developing strategic vacuum in Afghanistan and Central and South Asia; uncertainty of Afghan leadership, military failure in Afghanistan, rising tide of internal violence, real US strategic interests, and relationships with Pakistan, India, Iran, and China.

Text of BSA

The Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) was signed the day after President Ghani was inaugurated. You can read the text at the link below that will bring you to the Just Security website.

http://justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/BSA-ENGLISH-AFG.pdf

China and India: Cooperation on Afghanistan?

With NATO and the United States downsizing to less than 15,000 troops in 2014 and then even fewer still in 2015 the influence of the Western international community in Afghanistan and Central Asia is diminishing. Regional players will be taking a larger part in the diplomatic, economic, and security aspects of Afghanistan. Two of these two countries that may have a positive effect on Afghanistan are China and India. Both are assisting in the development of raw resources of Afghanistan (China with copper and India with iron ore). In addition, both countries are providing funding and assistance in a number of other broad economic areas. Read more in "Can China and India Cooperate in Afghanistan?", The Diplomat, October 1, 2014.

More than 10K Troops Needed for Afghanistan

Now that the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) is signed between Afghanistan and the United States (as well as the NATO Status of Forces Agreement or SOFA) observers are assessing the current security situation. The conclusion that some draw is that 9,800 U.S. troops is not enough to conduct the "train, advise, and assist" or SFA mission. While ISAF thinks it can cover down on 4 of the 6 ANA corps and the security ministries and agencies (MoD, MoI, and NDS) it is not really going to be able to conduct the "assist" part of the mission very well. A good chunk of the "assist" mission should be to provide air support in the form of close air support, aerial surveillance, air transport, and medical evacuation - something the Afghan Air Force (AAF) is just not ready to do on a big enough scale. But ISAF would need about 5,000 more troops to be able to do that. Read more in "Don't let history repeat itself", The Economist, October 4, 2014.

National Unity Government - A Band-aid

According to one recent post online the National Unity Government (NUG) is ". . . a band-aid solution to deeper corruption and ethnic tensions". But the article acknowledges that the band-aid stopped the possible slide to a parallel government and escalation to a civil war between ethnic groups and buys time for the new government to continue the security mission against the Taliban and to . . . start acting like a government. Read "Afghanistan: a band-aid and a way forward", The Strategist, October 2014.

Report - Afghan Politics, Elections, and Government (CRS Sep 2014)

The Congressional Research Service (CRS) has published a report entitled Afghanistan: Politics, Elections, and Government Performance, by Kenneth Katzman, RS21922, dated September 17, 2014. Topics include the historic patterns of Afghan authority and politics, post-Taliban transition and political landscape, Afghan governing capacity and performance, and more. In its summary it states ". . . the government remains rife with corruption and ethnic and political tensions among its major factions are ever present." It further concludes "The United States has helped establish anti-corruption institutions, but these bodies have faltered from lack of support from senior Afghan leaders who oppose prosecuting political allies". You can read the report online or download at this link - http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/232516.pdf.

Salang Tunnel Needs Fixing But . . .

Photo by Alicia Embrey USACE

The Afghan government is asking the United States and other international supporters for millions of dollars to fix the Salang Tunnel in northern Afghanistan. The tunnel, located in the Hindu Kush mountain range, was built decades ago by the Soviet Union. Some estimates say that 80% of Afghanistan's commerce travels through the 1.6 mile long tunnel. The tunnel is in need of serious repair work - requiring millions of dollars and a shut-down lasting several months. However, the United States is reluctant to pay the bill; especially since it has footed the cost of millions of dollars of road construction in Afghanistan already. Read more in "Bottomless Pit: U.S. Balks at Bills for Afghanistan's Treacherous Salang Tunnel", The Wall Street Journal, October 2, 2014.

Country Rankings for Over-60 Quality of Life

One of the troop contributing nations for ISAF - Norway - ranks No. 1 in quality of life for someone over 60. So if you are looking to retire then Norway could be your top choice. And, you may ask, which country has the lowest quality of life if you are over 60? Well, . . . Afghanistan, of course. Read more in "Norway ranks No. 1, Afghanistan last, in quality of life for over-60s", Los Angeles Times, October 2, 2014.