New NATO Secretary General

Mr. Jens Stoltenberg took up his post as NATO Secretary General on Wednesday, October 1, 2014. The former Norwegian Prime Minister was appointed by the 28 Allies in March 2104. Mr. Stoltenberg was previously Prime Minister of Norway from 2000-2001 and from 2005-2013. He is 55 years old, holds a postgraduate degree in Economics, was a member of Parliament, Minister (Finance and also Industry and Energy), and has worked for the United Nations. Read a NATO announcement here and his biography.

CSTC-A Has New Commander

The Combined Security Transition Command - Afghanistan (CSTC-A) conducted a change of command ceremony on October 4, 2014. The outgoing commander, MG Kevin Wendel, passed the baton to the incoming commander, MG Todd Semonite. CSTC-A is responsible for training, advising, and assisting (SFA) the Afghan national security organizations as part of the current ISAF mission and upcoming Resolute Support mission. (Source "CSTC-A welcomes new commander", ISAF NewsI, October 4, 2014.) Read more about Major General Todd T. Semonite in this biography posted on the website of the US Army Corps of Engineers. In looking at his biography it doesn't appear he has a previous tour in Afghanistan. Hmmmm . . . I wonder if that makes a difference? If he hasn't been to the wonderful country of sand and corruption then his staff will have to school him up on some basic stuff - like what the difference is between and "Afghan" and "Afghani".

Report - GAO Equipment Drawdown

The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) has published a report entitled Progress Made, but Improved Controls in Decision Making Could Reduce Risk of Unnecessary Expenditures, GAO-14-768, September 30, 2014. The report looks at the retrograde or destruction of equipment and vehicles and provides recommendations on how to save some money. A summary of the report is in quotes below. The report is available here - http://gao.gov/products/GAO-14-768.

"The Department of Defense (DOD) has made some progress in its drawdown of equipment from Afghanistan, but ongoing uncertainties about the future force in Afghanistan could affect progress of the drawdown. Specifically, from October 2012 to October 2013, DOD returned from Afghanistan or destroyed 14,664 vehicles, an average of 1,128 vehicles per month. Future progress toward drawdown goals will depend on equipment turn-in rates, which, in turn, depend on having more information about the post-2014 force level and mission. In addition, over the course of the last 8 months of the above period, the number of vehicles turned in by units for the drawdown averaged 55 percent of what had been forecast. This is because some vehicles that had been forecast for turn-in were instead redistributed to other units in Afghanistan. A senior DOD official stated that units have retained equipment because of uncertainty regarding future operational needs in Afghanistan. Once the post-2014 force level and mission are announced, these vehicle turn-in rates may increase."

COMISAF Meets with Ghani

(Photo by SSG Richard Sherba)

Army General John Campbell, the commander of ISAF, met with the new President of Afghanistan (PoA) on October 3, 2014. Ghani and Campbell got together and discussed improving security in Afghanistan and throughout the entire South Asia region. Let's hope that the relationship between Campbell and Ghani will be better than that between previous COMISAFs and Karzai. (Of course it will be! Karzai was extremely difficult to work with). Now if we can get through the next 100 days without a CIVCAS, "blue on civilian", or Koran burning incident the new COMISAF won't have to start off his relationship with the new PoA with rendering apologies. Following the example of General Joe Dunford, Campbell decided to wear his dress uniform (something that previous COMISAFs didn't do). Unfortunately the Marine Corps dress uniform looks a whole lot better than the Army dress uniform. Campbell should go back to multicams and just make an excuse up for his attire at his next PoA meeting ("Sorry, just got off the chopper on a BFC to 'insert location here' five minutes ago.").

A-10s Returning to Afghanistan

More A-10 Warthogs are being deployed to Bagram Air Field (BAF) located just north of Kabul, Afghanistan.This is part of a six-month deployment of the 122nd Fighter Wing of the Indiana Air National Guard. The A-10 is revered by ground troops because of its ability to withstand ground fire (it has titanium armor), fly low (enabling it to identity ground targets), loiter in an area for longer periods of time, and carry a heavier bomb load. There are 283 A-10s in the Air Force and the fighter jocks are trying their best to retire the extremely effective aircraft because . . . well, because it is not sexy and does close air support. Instead, the Air Force wants to field the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to do what the A-10 does very well. Read more in "U.S. Sending A-10 Plane to Combat While Trying to Kill It", Bloomberg News, October 2, 2014.

ANA Death Rate 30 % Higher

The Afghan army death rate rose 30 percent over the 2013 death rate. This is a result of several factors. First is that the Taliban have not been defeated and are just as strong as they ever have been. Second is that the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has reduced its combat power on the ground to the extent that almost all of the fighting is being done by the Afghan National Army (ANA) and some special units of the Afghan National Police (ANP). The biggest exception are the NSOCC-A units that operate alongside the Afghan special forces and special police units. In addition, the U.S. (and other NATO countries) provide close air support and medical evacuation on a very limited basis. Read more in "Afghan army death rate spikes 30 percent", Air Force Times, October 3, 2014.

Mi-17 Most Successful Helicopter?

A recent news blurb says that the Mi-17 may be the most successful helicopter of all time. The Russians have exported 3,500 of the export version of the Mi-17 helicopter to over 65 different countries. The Afghan Air Force will soon have 87 of the Mi-17s which conduct resupply, VIP transport, MEDEVACs, and personnel movements. Looks like the U.S. did something right in picking the Mi-17 for the Afghan Air Force! Read more in "Is The Mi-17 the Most Successful Helicopter of all Time?", DefenseWorld.net, October 3, 2014.

Political Meddling with Afghan Military May End

With the arrival of the Ghani administration in the Afghan government there is hope that the political meddling on the part of the President's office (that would be the former president Karzai) and his appointees will end. This diminished political meddling will increase the country's ability to conduct an effective counterinsurgency campaign against the Taliban. General John Campbell, the commander of the International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) in Afghanistan stated that "The last couple years, there's been some impediments to . . . " the leadership of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Comments made by other observers such as Marc Chretien, a former top political advisor in Afghanistan, reinforced the belief that there will be less political meddling in the affairs of the Afghan military. Read the entire story at "Afghan political meddling in military likely to end", USA Today, October 3, 2014.

Gen. Campbell - Slower Withdrawal Possible

General John Campbell, the commander of the International Security Assistance Force (COMISAF), says that he will reserve the right to recommend a slower withdrawal from Afghanistan if he thinks it is necessary. Current plans have troop levels down to 9,800 U.S. by the end of the year (2014). By the end of 2015 there will be about 5,000 troops left. By the end of 2017 almost all U.S. troops will have left except for a few at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul. He says that as time goes on he will make assessments and measure the risk to the force and the risk to the mission. Read more on this topic in "Gen. Campbell Will Recommend a Slower Drawdown in Afghanistan, if needed", Defense One, October 2, 2014.

Afghan Daily News at 5:00 am

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COMISAF Briefing to DoD Press (2 Oct 14)

ISAF News has posted the transcript of General John Campbell's (COMISAF) press briefing to the DoD press corps on October 2, 2014. Some of his main points in his address covered the transition from the ISAF mission to Resolute Support, the political transition to the new president, and the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) and the NATO SOFA. He made his opening comments and then answered questions from the press. Snippets of the press conference are provided below.

He stated that there are currently a total of 40,000 troops on the ground (U.S. and other troop contributing nations) with aim of being down to 12,500 at the end of 2014. He sees 2015 as a train, advise and assist mission against four of the six ANA corps and at the ministerial level. The advising effort is no longer at the brigade or kandak level; but at the corps level and above. The remaining bases after 2014 will be in Jalalabad, Gamberi, Bagram, Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Kandahar, and Kabul. As COMISAF he has been focusing on " . . . the security institutions, the ministry of interior, the ministry of defense, the national security adviser, NDS, and then working with both President Ghani and Mr. Abdullah . . ."

He says that despite the late signing of the BSA - ISAF is still on a good glide path to get to the Resolute Support mission set. There are less than 30 bases left and many of those will close before the end of the year. He identified some shortfalls of the ANSF that need improvement - to include aviation, close air support, intelligence, logistics, and sustainment.

Campbell was asked if the U.S. will " . . . be in a position to provide air support to the ANSF after this year? And would that include both close-air support and medevac missions . . ." He pretty much dodged that question; although he indicated that there is diminished air support capability under Resolute Support.

He was asked about SIGARs reports on how US money is being spent and the lack of oversight; his response is they are working closely with SIGAR, the MoD, and MoI and have tightened up some of the oversight procedures to get more transparency.

The subject of Mi-17s for the Afghan Air Force was brought up by a reporter. Currently there are 84 Mi-17s in Afghanistan with a target of 87 (3 more to go). He calls the Mi-17s a "game changer".

You can read the transcript in full at the link below:
www.isaf.nato.int/article/isaf-news/dept.-of-defense-press-briefing-by-gen.-campbell-oct.-2-2014.html

Report - Losing the "Forgotten War"

Anthony H. Cordesman has penned a report entitled Losing the "Forgotten War": The Need to Reshape US Strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia.  The report, published on October 1, 2014, is available here on the website of the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). (It  is an Adobe Acrobat PDF, 76 pages long, and 3 MBs big). The report says that " . . . Afghanistan is still the forgotten war at a time when the Taliban is making steady gains, civilian casualties are rising, the Afghan economy is in crisis, and there still are no clear plans for any post-2014 aspect of transition". Aspects of the report include the developing strategic vacuum in Afghanistan and Central and South Asia; uncertainty of Afghan leadership, military failure in Afghanistan, rising tide of internal violence, real US strategic interests, and relationships with Pakistan, India, Iran, and China.

Text of BSA

The Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) was signed the day after President Ghani was inaugurated. You can read the text at the link below that will bring you to the Just Security website.

http://justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/BSA-ENGLISH-AFG.pdf

China and India: Cooperation on Afghanistan?

With NATO and the United States downsizing to less than 15,000 troops in 2014 and then even fewer still in 2015 the influence of the Western international community in Afghanistan and Central Asia is diminishing. Regional players will be taking a larger part in the diplomatic, economic, and security aspects of Afghanistan. Two of these two countries that may have a positive effect on Afghanistan are China and India. Both are assisting in the development of  raw resources of Afghanistan (China with copper and India with iron ore). In addition, both countries are providing funding and assistance in a number of other broad economic areas. Read more in "Can China and India Cooperate in Afghanistan?", The Diplomat, October 1, 2014.

More than 10K Troops Needed for Afghanistan

Now that the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) is signed between Afghanistan and the United States (as well as the NATO Status of Forces Agreement or SOFA) observers are assessing the current security situation. The conclusion that some draw is that 9,800 U.S. troops is not enough to conduct the "train, advise, and assist" or SFA mission. While ISAF thinks it can cover down on 4 of the 6 ANA corps and the security ministries and agencies (MoD, MoI, and NDS) it is not really going to be able to conduct the "assist" part of the mission very well. A good chunk of the "assist" mission should be to provide air support in the form of close air support, aerial surveillance, air transport, and medical evacuation - something the Afghan Air Force (AAF) is just not ready to do on a big enough scale. But ISAF would need about 5,000 more troops to be able to do that. Read more in "Don't let history repeat itself", The Economist, October 4, 2014.

National Unity Government - A Band-aid

According to one recent post online the National Unity Government (NUG) is ". . . a band-aid solution to deeper corruption and ethnic tensions". But the article acknowledges that the band-aid stopped the possible slide to a parallel government and escalation to a civil war between ethnic groups and buys time for the new government to continue the security mission against the Taliban and to . . . start acting like a government. Read "Afghanistan: a band-aid and a way forward", The Strategist, October 2014.

Report - Afghan Politics, Elections, and Government (CRS Sep 2014)

The Congressional Research Service (CRS) has published a report entitled Afghanistan: Politics, Elections, and Government Performance, by Kenneth Katzman, RS21922, dated September 17, 2014. Topics include the historic patterns of Afghan authority and politics, post-Taliban transition and political landscape, Afghan governing capacity and performance, and more. In its summary it states ". . . the government remains rife with corruption and ethnic and political tensions among its major factions are ever present."  It further concludes "The United States has helped establish anti-corruption institutions, but these bodies have faltered from lack of support from senior Afghan leaders who oppose prosecuting political allies". You can read the report online or download at this link - http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/232516.pdf.

Salang Tunnel Needs Fixing But . . .

Photo by Alicia Embrey USACE

The Afghan government is asking the United States and other international supporters for millions of dollars to fix the Salang Tunnel in northern Afghanistan. The tunnel, located in the Hindu Kush mountain range, was built decades ago by the Soviet Union. Some estimates say that 80% of Afghanistan's commerce travels through the 1.6 mile long tunnel. The tunnel is in need of serious repair work - requiring millions of dollars and a shut-down lasting several months. However, the United States is reluctant to pay the bill; especially since it has footed the cost of millions of dollars of road construction in Afghanistan already. Read more in "Bottomless Pit: U.S. Balks at Bills for Afghanistan's Treacherous Salang Tunnel", The Wall Street Journal, October 2, 2014.

Country Rankings for Over-60 Quality of Life

One of the troop contributing nations for ISAF - Norway - ranks No. 1 in quality of life for someone over 60. So if you are looking to retire then Norway could be your top choice. And, you may ask, which country has the lowest quality of life if you are over 60? Well, . . . Afghanistan, of course. Read more in "Norway ranks No. 1, Afghanistan last, in quality of life for over-60s", Los Angeles Times, October 2, 2014.

Afghan Daily News Sent to Your Inbox

You can receive the Afghan War News Daily Newsletter each day. It should arrive in your e-mail inbox at 5:00 am Eastern Standard Time. It is easy to subscribe. Send an e-mail to staff@afghanwarnews.info or go to www.afghanwarnews.blogspot.com and submit your subscription request in the "Follow by Email" dialogue box in the top of the right hand column. It is easy to unsubscribe. At the bottom of the newsletter click "unsubscribe" and you will be automatically unsubscribed.