US Plan for Withdrawal from Afghanistan (2012-2014)

The plan for the US withdrawal is slowly taking shape. The goal is for the US and NATO to turn over all security responsilities to the Afghans by the end of 2014 if not sooner. The drawdown will start this spring. By fall of 2012 we should be down to 68,000 troops in Afghanistan. By late 2013 ISAF will stop conducting combat operations. Details of the withdrawal are available on the Long War Journal website. See "US withdrawal from Afghanistan: the plan for 212, 2013, and 2014", by CJ Radin, March 18, 2012.

Reality of Situation in Afghanistan

Fareed Zakaria writes an opinion piece in The Washington Post (February 29, 2012) about the "unsustainable aspect of America's Afghan policy". He states that while President Obama wants to withdraw troops he also wants to transition the fighting to an Afghan army and police while helping form a government in Kabul that can run the country and further develop its economy. Zakaria calls this a fantasy; points out factors that stand in the way of America's Afghan policy, and suggests that we recognize the reality of the Afghan situation.

He states that the Afghan government does not have the support of the Pashtuns - who comprise a good part (40%) of the population and many of whom support the Taliban. The national army, made up of Tajiks, Hazaras, and Uzbeks, does not have a proportionate representation of Pashtuns. For this reason support by the Pashtun areas of the country for the Afghan army is minimal. He believes that the Afghan economy will soon fail with the withdrawal of foreign troops and the excessive money spent in Afghanistan to support those troops. With a downsizing of the economy there will be no way to pay for a large Afghan army or police force. He sees no defeat of the Taliban in the near future as they have the support of the Pashtun population and sanctuaries in Pakistan.

In a concluding paragraph Zakaria suggests we accept reality and provides a way ahead:

"Accepting reality in Afghanistan would not leave America without options. Even with a smaller troop presence, we can pursue robust counterterrorism operations. We will be able to prevent the Taliban from again taking over the country. The north and east — populated by Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras — will stay staunchly opposed to the Taliban. We should support those groups and, more crucially, ally with the neighboring countries that support them. The natural, and historic, allies of the Northern Alliance are India, Iran and Russia; they have permanent interests that will keep them involved in the region. We should try to align our strategy with those countries’ strategies (obviously, the alignment will be tacit with Iran)."

Read his entire article here -  "Fantasy and reality in Afghanistan", The Washington Post, February 29, 2012.

Washington Post Editorial - Continue the Mission in Afghanistan

The Washington Post has published an editorial about the way forward on the Afghanistan war.  With the recent riots and demonstrations in the streets of Afghanistan - and the killing of NATO troops by Afghan security force personnel - many observers of the war feel that we should accelerate our departure from an ungrateful nation which has cost us so much money and so many lives. Not so quick says the editorial board of the Post in a recent article on their website - see "Despite the deepening crisis, the Afghan strategy is worth saving", February 28, 2012.

"Declare Victory in Afghanistan and Come Home"

With the most recent killings of NATO Soldiers by Afghan security personnel in Afghanistan there has been a renewed look at the merits of staying in Afghanistan to 2014.  Many columnists are now advocating a declaration of victory and withdrawal from Afghanistan.  Read one columnist's viewpoint, KT McFarland of Fox News, in "It's time to declare victory in Afghanistan and come home - - before we have to shoot our way out", Fox News.com, February 29, 2012.

Many Afghans Leaving Afghanistan Before 2014

Many Afghans, those who can afford to, have left or plan to leave Afghanistan prior to the departure of ISAF troops in 2014.  Once ISAF leaves there are doubts about the Afghan governments ability to control the insurgency, questions about the current reconciliation talks with the Taliban, and worries about the economy when the aid money stops flowing. Some Afghans with international options will leave before the Taliban start to exert their influence over the country again.  Many who have tied their livelihoods to international aid organizations, NGOs, development firms, and the ISAF military structure are worried as well - both about the cutoff of their means to make a living and retributions for working with "the occupying powers".  There are many Afghans who are in an excellent position - as a result of the overwhelming corrupt nature of the Afghan government many of the high-level Afghan officials have already built their villas in Dubai and they are padding their overseas bank accounts with money siphoned off from the international donations.  Read more on the exodus from Afghanistan in "Racing for the exits", by Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, The AFPAK Channel, Foreign Policy, February 28, 2012.

Nation Building in Afghanistan Not Working

A member of a forensic accounting team who spent the past year in Afghanistan providing analysis on where the money spent on Afghanistan has gone wrote an opinion piece for the Chicago Tribune.  Mark Doyle says that "Implementing a nation-building plan in a country that is unprepared, unwilling and unable to accept the fundamental components of a democratic state is an impossible mission.  It is not worth one more American life or taxpayer dollar".  His job in Afghanistan was to " . . . determine how much of the money committed to reconstruction projects was supporting counterinsurgency strategies".  He states that Afghanistan does not have the right conditions to make nation-building work and that the society and government is too corrupt.  Doyle's advise to us?  It is time to leave Afghanistan.  Read his article entitled "Why we need to get out of Afghanistan - now", Chicago Tribune Opinion, February 24, 2012.

Is Politics Driving the Early Exit from Afghanistan?

"KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — The Taliban are not beaten, the peace process is bogged down in internal squabbles and Afghan security forces aren't ready to take control of the nation. Yet the U.S. and its partners are talking about speeding up — rather than slowing down — their exit from the war.
It's becoming dramatically clear that politics is driving NATO's war exit strategy as much or more than conditions on the battlefield.

Political calendars in the West were never supposed to influence the decision about when Afghan forces take the lead and allow international troops step back into support roles or leave altogether. The U.S., Afghan and other international leaders have said repeatedly that transition decisions would not be held hostage to international political agendas."

Read the rest of the story in "Analysis: Politics drives exit from Afghanistan", Associated Press, February 3, 2012.

Declare Victory and Bring the Troops Home - Geraldo Rivera

Geraldo Rivera, a senior columnist for Fox News Latino, says "It is past time to declare victory and to bring the troops home".  

We have spent ten years at war in Afghanistan, two and a half times longer than we spent waging World War II. How many more years, how many more lives and how much more American tax money would be enough to stabilize and westernize that perpetually medieval country?

We killed the man who killed our friends and neighbors on that September morning a decade ago. It is past time to declare victory and to bring the troops home. And if you don’t believe me ask the warriors who actually do the fighting and the dying.

Read the rest of the news article "Geraldo Rivera: Adios Afghanistan", Fox News Latino, February 3, 2012.

Withdrawal from Afghanistan and Presidential Politics

Michael A. Cohen of the Century Foundation has wrote an article exploring the presidential politics of the withdrawal from Afghanistan.  He explores the timeline for withdrawing and how the public views the circumstances of the departure from Afghanistan.  There are interesting comments on how the withdrawal affects Obama's quest for re-election.  See "Premature Evacuation?", Foreign Policy, February 2, 2012.

Way Ahead in Afghanistan - War According to the New York Times

On the Opinion Pages of The New York Times is an editorial providing guidance on the way ahead in Afghanistan. The piece provides the Times input for encouraging governance, training and financing the Afghan security forces, negotiating with the Taliban, support to the Afghan economy, leaving behind a residual American force (special operators), and how to deal with Pakistan.  Read "Beginning of the End", The New York Times Sunday Review, February 18, 2012.

A Strategy for Defeat in Afghanistan

Many Afghan war critics are looking at how the next few years will unfold.  One of them believes that " . . . amid fiscal belt tightening, growing war-weariness and election-year politics, the international community is pursuing the exact policy it should not".  Read more in "How best to ensure defeat in Afghanistan", Afghanistan Analysis, February 4, 2012.

An Australian Commentator Ties the Early U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan to the Next Presidential Elections

On one hand the U.S. says we are staying in Afghanistan until the end of 2014 but on the other we state we will be withdrawing our combat forces by mid-2013.  This leaves our allies fighting alongside us in Afghanistan puzzled.  Some critics state that Obama is setting the stage for the upcoming elections.  Read what one Australian correspondent makes of this in "Afghans the loser in US election", The Sydney Morning Herald, February 7, 2012.

Will Coalition Drawdown of Troops Destabilize Afghanistan's Economy?

Many are speculating on the effect that the withdrawal of ISAF troops in 2014 will have on the Afghanistan economy.  Thousands of U.S. troops will have departed by the fall of 2012 - so that should start the trend. Some analysts think that corruption will decline (less money to steal) while others think it will be business as usual for the corrupt Karzai regime.  Over 90 percent of the Afghan government's budget comes from the international community and the country depends on that money.  Read one columnists take on the economic future of Afghanistan in "What happens when troops - and money - leave Afghanistan?", The Christian Science Monitor, February 7, 2012.  (Photo credit 1st Class David Frech DoD)

A Case for Continuing America's Longest War

A college professor with significant fieldwork in Afghanistan has published an article that makes the case for keeping a force of approximately 30,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan after 2014. He claims that al Qaeda is still a viable and dangerous force and closely linked to the Taliban.  The danger of a total U.S. withdrawal is the Taliban will be able to keep their sanctuary areas in Pakistan, enlarge their control of Pashtun areas of Afghanistan, and harbor al Qaeda terrorists (and their training camps).  He also feels that if the Taliban regain control of part or all of Afghanistan it would reverse much of the hard work the coalition has done over the past ten years to help rebuild Afghanistan.  Read his online article entitled "Afghanistan: The Argument of Continuing America's Longest War", History News Network, February 2, 2012.

Brian Glyn Williams is an Associate Professor of Islamic History at the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth.  He is the author of Afghanistan Declassified: A Guide to America's Longest War.  The book is adapted from a field manual he wrote for the U.S. Army based on fieldwork he conducted in Afghanistan.  His book can be purchased online at Amazon.com at the link below:

Afghanistan Declassified: A Guide to America's Longest War

Are We Writing Off Afghanistan?

A recent blogger has suspicions that the Obama administration is losing its commitment to win the war in Afghanistan.  Read more in "Writing off Afghanistan, too", by Kori Schake, The Shadow Government, Foreign Policy, February 2, 2012.

Disaster in Afghanistan? An Early Withdrawal

Fred and Kim Kagan comment on the proposed early withdrawal announced by Leon Panetta in "Courting disaster in Afghanistan", American Enterprise Institute, February 1, 2012.

Troop Cuts Could Set Back Gains in Afghanistan

An international organization has recommended that troop levels remain the same in Afghanistan until July 2012.  The International Council on Security and Development (ICOS) has released a report stating that an early withdrawal would set back gains made in southern Afghanistan.  Read more in the links below:

"U.S. troop cut could set back Afghan gains - thinktank", Reuters, February 10, 2011.

"Afghanistan Transition: Dangers of a Summer Drawdown", International Council on Security and Development Press Release, February 9, 2011.

Here is an abstract of the report:

"This report looks at the current dynamics in Kandahar and Helmand provinces, southern Afghanistan, in the context of the United States' announced plan to begin drawing down military forces in Afghanistan in five months. The surge of 30,000 additional US forces has changed the security dynamics on the ground significantly, with the additional troops making major gains in clearing districts previously held by the Taliban.

The total troops on the ground in Afghanistan have gone from approximately 89,000 NATO- ISAF troops and 215,000 Afghan security forces in March 2010, to a current total of 131,000 NATO-ISAF troops and 266,000 Afghan police and army, an overall increase of 93,000. The Afghan security forces are also more visible and arguably more professional and better equipped than before.

This progress at the military level will hopefully create an enabling environment for analogous improvement in the fields of aid, development, governance and counter-narcotics which still require significant work. Without that, the military gains will be undermined and unsustainable. The urgent needs of people displaced by the fighting, the chronic grinding poverty and unemployment, and the grassroots political dynamics are not being addressed in southern Afghanistan. It is not at all clear what strategies will be used to tackle these vital issues."

The report can be downloaded at the link below.  It is an Adobe Acrobat PDF file.

http://www.icosgroup.net/documents/afghanistan_dangers_drawdown.pdf

Military to Withdraw Support Troops, Keep Combat Forces in Afghanistan

It would appear that one method of withdrawing forces and lowering the number of troops in Afghanistan will be to take out support troops but leaving combat units intact.  Read more in "U.S. Seeks to Keep Afghan Troop Strength" in The Wall Street Journal (January 8, 2011).

Calls for Withdrawal from Afghanistan

With the entrance into a new year many critics of the war in Afghanistan will renew their calls for the withdrawal in Afghanistan.  One such critic, Doug Bandow -a Senior Fellow of the Cato Institute - has analyzed what we are trying to accomplish in Afghanistan and determined we do not need to be there.  He says our original objectives of destroying al Qaeda elements in Afghanistan and punishing the Taliban for hosting al Qaeda have been accomplished - early on in the war.  He sees no real need to stay and cites a body count of 1,369 Americans in 2010 as unnecessary.  Read his article in "Dying for What in Afghanistan?", The Huffington Post, January 1, 2010.  Read more news on the Afghanistan War.

The Baltimore Sun Calls for New Afghan Strategy

The Baltimore Sun has called for the withdrawal of most U.S. forces from Afghanistan.  It says that we have reached a stalemate in Afghanistan. While we can kill the Taliban mid-level leadership in large numbers they have the ability to regenerate.  The sanctuaries in Pakistan still exist due to Pakistan's two-faced policy towards the war, Karzai is ineffective, corrupt and an undependable ally.  The Sun says we should keep a small Special Forces contingent and drones in the war to hit al Qaeda targets when they appear and withdraw the bulk of our forces.  See "The longest war", The Baltimore Sun, December 15, 2010.