Karzai: Afghanistan's Erratic and Irrational Leader

Many of President Karzai's statements about the United States and ISAF have been highly questioned. The most recent bombshell was his charge that the United States and the Taliban were colluding to keep Afghanistan in a state of de-stabilization. This would provide an excuse for ISAF to remain in the country beyond 2014 as occupiers. Some of his more recent actions include ordering the removal of special operations Soldiers from Wardak province, forbidding his Army and police to call in ISAF close air support (CAS), and demanding the turnover of the Bagram detention center. All of these recent demands are counterproductive to helping the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) take over the lead in security operations. The ANSF continues to need ISAF air support (although their artillery is becoming more proficient), it's specialized units and the ALP need their SOF advisers, and the Afghan prison system is notorious for instances of abuse, torture, and the release of hardened Taliban fighters through corruption.

The new ISAF commander is in a difficult position. He needs to navigate the political minefield strewn about by Karzai very carefully. On one hand he needs to recognize the sovereignty of Afghanistan and on the other provide the military advise and assistance and conduct the military operations to keep the Taliban at bay until the ANSF is ready to take over 100% of the lead in security operations.

General Dunford has provided some insight into the perplexing Karzai problem in a recent news release by the U.S. Department of Defense. He cites the ongoing negotiations with the Afghans about the turnover of the detention facility in Parwan and the transition of security operations in Wardak to the Afghans that are taking place at the ministerial level. He states that ISAF relations are good with the Afghan Ministry of Interior (MoI) and Ministry of Defense (MoD).

Dunford has concerns about the Taliban information operations campaign - and indicates that ISAF has not done well in fighting the perception that the Western nations are occupiers in Afghanistan for the long-term and that ISAF is abandoning Afghanistan with it's withdrawal (two conflicting views but widely held). Dunford believes that there is a psychological aspect to the transition that has affected some of the Afghan leadership. You can read more of his comments on this topic in "Dunford: Uncertainty Poses Greatest Risk to Transition", American Forces Press Service, March 11, 2013.

It may be that the "uncertainty" cited by General Dunford is causing a "messaging problem" with the Afghan leader. However, a more likely story is that the irrational and erratic Karzai is conducting "appeasement operations" in hopes that the Taliban who do come to the negotiation table in the next few years will look favorably upon his hostile pronouncements against the Western allies. Other Afghan leaders have swung at the end of a rope from a Kabul lamp post after their foreign backers left and Karzai may not want that same fate.

Briefing by Vice Admiral Harward on Task Force 435

Read the transcript of a briefing by Vice Admiral Harward about Task Force 435.  TF 435 has command oversight and responsibility of U.S. detention operations and facilities in Afghanistan.  The TF also supports the biometrics and rule of law efforts in that country.

http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4727