Showing posts with label commentary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label commentary. Show all posts

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Commentary


"What was the point?" Nick Paton Walsh, a CNN correspondent, comments on the current situation in Afghanistan in a recent news report. A pessimist gets even more pessimistic. Read "Afghanistan war: Just what was the point?", CNN, February 25, 2016.

On "Strategic Withdrawal" from Musa Qala. The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) have pulled out of two districts in Helmand province - one of them Musa Qala district. The power of the Afghan central government is on the decline and the Taliban is winning on the battlefield in many cases. Read "The retreat from Musa Qala is not 'strategic withdrawal'", Prospect Magazine, February 25, 2016.

Thoughts on U.S. Return to Helmand. One two-tour veteran of the Afghan conflict wants to know why we are putting 500 Soldiers back into a province that 10,000 Marines and others had great difficulty in security. Read "I see my old battalion assigned to Helmand again and I wonder: What is the point?", The Washington Post, February 27, 2016.

U.S. Options in Afghanistan. Anders Corr writes that America has three options in Afghanistan. Read his thoughts in "Afghanistan: Western Curse Worse Than Taliban Disease", Forbes.com, February 24, 2016.

How to Pack for Helmand Province. A Marine veteran who served in Helmand lays out his suggested packing list for those heading there for the first time in "5 Things To Pack If You're Deploying to Helmand", Task & Purpose, February 25, 2016.

Baluchistan. The low grade insurgency in of one of Pakistan's provinces (Baluchistan - just south of the Afghan border) has taken its toll on its residents. Read more in "Pakistan's Invisible Baluch Displacement Crisis", Gandhara Blog - Radio Free Europe, February 24, 2016.

Post Cards from Afghanistan. Showing the personal side of the Afghan conflict, Robert Cunningham, provides us with photos of the battlefield in a photo gallery by Foreign Affairs, February 24, 2016.

Pakistan Cooperative? Secretary of State John Kerry says that Pakistan has been 'very cooperative and very engaged in the fight against terrorism'. Ummmm. Okay, take that with a grain of salt. Kerry is either naive or thinks we are really stupid. Read more in an analysis by Bill Roggio of The Long War Journal (Feb 25, 2016).

Afghan Analysis by CSIS. Anthony Cordesman, one of the more astute observers of the long Afghan conflict, has updated his analysis of the security situation in "Afghanistan: The Uncertain Impact of a Year of Transition", Center for Strategic & International Studies, February 22, 2016.

"Where We Went Wrong". Mark Moyar tells us that when a military wins tactically then strategic failure is usually the result of poor civilian leadership. Read more in "Where We Went Wrong, From Afghanistan to ISIS", Newsweek, February 21, 2016.

Australia: No Afghan Strategy. According to former Army chief Peter Leahy, Australia had no strategy in  Afghanistan. The security situation is sliding backwards and the U.S.-led coalition is struggling to find an exit strategy. (The Sidney Morning Herald, Feb 23, 2016).

Australian Press and Armed Forces. A war correspondent, Thom Cookes, says that it is disingenuous of the ADF to claim the story of soldiers serving in Afghanistan is largely untold when it's the ADF that has kept journalists at bay. Read more in "Afghanistan: the war they hid for too long", The Age, February 26, 2016.

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Commentary


India & China: Key Partners. Raffaello Pantucci writes on the importance of India and China in developing stability for Afghanistan. Both countries are increasing their involvement with Afghanistan in many ways - economically, diplomatically, and more. This is a great article to help one understand the complexities of Central and South Asia and how regional powers can help Afghanistan become stable once again. "India and China key partners in keeping Afghanistan stable", Reuters, February 15, 2016.

Not Getting Better. Joseph Blady writes a pessimistic article about the current situation in Afghanistan - "In Afghanistan, things aren't getting better", The Hill blog, February 15, 2016.
"The number of properly trained Afghan troops has been grossly overestimated. Afghan military and police leaders are collecting salaries for troops and police that don't exist. The government is doing the same for schools, teachers, clinics and doctors. Fraud and corruption are rampant. Contractors are being paid exorbitant amounts of money, but doing little. Intelligence is faulty. Oversight is being done from a distance and without effect. Afghanistan will not survive without help".
Obama's Failure in Afghanistan. Paul D. Miller writes how the President took a bad situation in  Afghanistan and made it even worse. Read "Obama's Failed Legacy in Afghanistan", The American Interest, February 15, 2016.

Civil-Military Divide . . . Does it Exist? Nate Cubra, a columnist, provides us with his thoughts on this topic in "A War Apart: Examining the American Civil-Military Divide", Georgetown Security Studies Review, February 17, 2016.

Drone Warfare. The use of  UAVs to carry out targeting against terrorist targets is an imperfect program that works. Michael V. Hayden, former CIA director, writes his thoughts about the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in "To Keep America Safe, Embrace Drone Warfare", The New York Times, February 19, 2016.

Enhancing SC Effectiveness. In times of defense spending austerity the use of 'security cooperation' to advance U.S. interests around the world needs further examination. Many programs designed to train and equip armies have been less effective than desired. Thomas W. Ross writes an essay entitled "Enhancing Security Cooperation Effectiveness: A Model for Capability Package Planning", National Defense University Press, January 1, 2016.

Lessons for ANDSF for 2016. Shawn Snow, a former Signals Intelligence Analyst for the U.S. Marine Corps, writes about lessons learned that the Afghan National Defense Security Forces (ANDSF) must remember if they are to be more successful in 2016 than they were in 2015. His analysis seems a bit optimistic but it focuses on the right areas for the most part. Read "Afghanistan: Lessons Learned for the 2016 Fighting Season", The Diplomat, February 15, 2016.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Commentary


Rethinking Afghanistan - Pakistan. Seema Sirohi believes the U.S. needs to do an analysis of its relationship with Pakistan. Read "Afghanistan-Pakistan: Obama Needs to Urgently Rethink", Eurasia Review, February 12, 2016.

Unworthy Ally. C.Christine Fair says it is time to cut Pakistan loose in "An Unworthy Ally", Foreign Affairs, February 12, 2016.

Durand Line, India, and Pakistan. One commentator says there are two outstanding issues the stand in the way of peace in Afghanistan. Afghanistan's recognition of the Durand Line and India - Pakistan relations. Until those are resolved, Pakistan will continue to support the Afghan Taliban. Read more in "A Solution to the Afghanistan-Taliban Conflict?", The World Post, February 11, 2016.

CSIS Report on Afghanistan. Anthony Cordesman provides us with an updated report containing his astute analysis of the security situation in Afghanistan. Read "Afghanistan: The Uncertain Impact of a Year of Transition", Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), February 11, 2016.

Germany and Afghanistan. Dr. Gale A. Mattox, Director of the AICGS's Foreign & Domestic Policy Program and a Professor of Political Science at the U.S. Naval Academy examines Germany's role in post-2014 Afghanistan and offers recommendations for continued engagement. Read Afghanistan: A Difficult Year Ahead, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS), February 10, 2016.

Stay the Course. Gary Anderson, a retired Marine colonel and former member of the Defense Adaptive Red Team, says we should maintain our status quo in Afghanistan until the next president takes office and sets the agenda for the future. Read "In Afghanistan, how about trying this?: Don't just do something, stand there", Best Defense Blog of Foreign Policy, February 11, 2016.

Stay the Course (Part II). Claude Rakisists, a senior fellow at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, says we need to maintain a military presence in Afghanistan until it can fully defend itself - something that might not be achievable until 2024. (Way past my retirement age - I'm out!). Read "Letter from Washington: Afghanistan and the changing of the American guard", The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), February 11, 2016.

Unpaid Debt to Interpreters. Just when you thought the State Department had turned the corner on the abhorrent treatment towards Afghan interpreters you find that they are up to their same dirty tricks once again. Read more in "An Unpaid Debt to Afghan Interpreters", The New York Times, February 4, 2016.

Military Career Management. One writer, Colin Griffin - a field artillery officer, writes that the military could do a much better job in assigning newly-minted officers in their career field. I totally agree. Read more in "Who's Out of Control?", Small Wars Journal, February 6, 2016.

HTS Analysis. Christopher Sims writes about the life and death of the Human Terrain System (HTS) in "Academics in Foxholes", Foreign Affairs, February 4, 2016.

Population-Centric COIN. Afghanistan has been fighting an insurgency since 2002 when the Taliban regrouped after being toppled from power. As in most insurgencies the Afghan conflict is lasting a long time. There are different ways to conduct counterinsurgency and military commentators attempt to classify the different methods. One is population-centric counterinsurgency. General McCrystral, then ISAF commander, introduced this type of COIN to Afghanistan in 2009. The author of this paper examines certain conditions that affect the likelihood of success for a population-centric approach to counterinsurgency. Read more in "On Winning Hearts and Minds: Key Conditions for Population-Centric COIN", by Gregory D. Miller, Small Wars Journal, February 8, 2016.

Future of Army - Missed Opportunities. Nadia Schadlow thinks that the National Commission on the Future of the Army missed out on some key observations. Some of these include pulling its punches on end strength needs, lack of content on stability operations (key to the ability to close out a COIN war and consolidate combat gains), less than robust attention on modernization needs, need for forces in Europe, and an inability of the Obama administration to identify threats by name (movement vs. organizations). Schadlow is a senior program officer at the Smith Richardson Foundation who writes on defense and foreign-policy related issues. Read "Squeezing Water From a Stone: Five Missed Opportunities in Planning the Future of the U.S. Army", War on the Rocks, February 8, 2016.

Sunday, February 7, 2016

Commentary


Afghan Nation-Building A Bust. Doug Bandow thinks its time for a departure from Afghanistan. "Afghanistan is a bust. The Taliban is expanding its control. The number of security incidents was up a fifth in the last months of 2015 over the previous year. Popular confidence is at its lowest level in a decade. . . ." And so on. Read more in "Bring America's Troops Home From Afghanistan: Nation-Building a Bust", Forbes.com, February 1, 2016.

Life Without War. A combat veteran of the Afghan War, Daniel Fisher, writes about life after his tour in Afghanistan in "#Essays on War: September Morning", The Strategy Bridge, February 2, 2016.

More Troops Not the Answer? General Campbell, Resolute Commander, testified before the House Armed Services Committee and said that the U.S. should continue to provide military assistance to Afghanistan for five more years. I guess this is the forever war! Some skeptics are convinced that the security situation gets worse each year. Read "Throwing More U.S. Troops at Afghanistan Isn't the Answer", National Interest, February 2, 2016.

RAND Report - COIN Update for Afghanistan. Christopher Paul and Colin P. Clarke have penned a 51-page report entitled Counterinsurgency Scorecard Update: Afghanistan in Early 2015 Relative to Insurgencies Since World War II, RAND Corporation, February 2016.

A "Plan Colombia" Needed for Afghanistan. Shawn Snow believes that in the fight to rid Afghanistan of violent extremism, the central government needs greater resources to gain a decisive advantage. Read "A Plan Colombia for Afghanistan", Foreign Policy, February 3, 2016.

Dividing Afghanistan? One commentator seems to think that a division of Afghanistan into two regions would help settle down the conflict. The western / northern portion would contain Heratis, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, and others. The southern and eastern portion controlled by the Pashtuns. Hmmm. Not sure that would work. Read more in "Deteriorating Security Situation in Afghanistan", Indian Defence Review, February 4, 2016.

Open-Ended Conflict. Abdullah Sharif provides his thoughts on the current situation in Afghanistan in "Quagmirestan: America's Open-Ended Involvement in Afghanistan", The World Post, February 3, 2016.

Pakistan's Hand. Carlotta Gall examines Pakistan's role in the rise of international jihadism. Read "Pakistan's Hand in the Rise of International Jihad", The New York Times, February 6, 2016.

Book - "The Envoy". A former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and the United Nations has penned a memoir. Zalmay Khalilzad has wrote The Envoy: From Kabul to the White House, My Journey Through a Turbulent World available at Macmillan Publishers. Khalilzad was born in Mazar-e Sharif, Afghanistan. Should be an informative read providing historical insight of the 'big picture'.

The War We Want and the War We Have. David Betz, a Reader in Warfare in the War Studies Department at King's College London, has penned a long essay on wars we want to fight and the wars we find ourselves involved with in "Carnage and Connectivity: How Our Pursuit of Fun Wars Brought the Wars Home", War on the Rocks, February 2, 2016.

Russia and a New Ally in Afghanistan? Some observers have made a lot of noise about Russia's supposed overtures to the Taliban in order to join forces against the rise of the Islamic State in Afghanistan. Javid Ahmad writes about Moscow's new ally in "Russia and the Taliban Make Amends", Foreign Affairs, January 31, 2016.

Lessons Not Learned. The US Army has two missions - defeating a capable adversary in large-scale land operations and conducting effective stability operations in areas in which governance is weak or nonexistent. The newly released report by the National Commission on the Future of the Army (Jan 28, 2016, 208 pages, PDF) lacks insight on how to address stability operations or counterinsurgency. As if to say that (as in the post-Vietnam era) we are not going to fight an OEF or OIF-like conflict every again. Read a critique of the recent report by the NCFA in "Ignoring the Army's Recent Past Will Not Help It Win Future Wars", by Andrew Hill, War on the Rocks, February 2, 2016.

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Commentary


New Years Resolutions for Terrorism. Anthony H. Cordesman offers us some advice on how to contain terrorism. Read "New Year's Resolutions on Terrorism: Panic, Politics, and the Prospects for Honesty in 2016", Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), December 28, 2015.

General Milley and "AABs" and "SFABs". The Army Chief of Staff recently indicated that the the future Army force structure should have light brigades whose primary mission is to conduct Security Force Assistance (SFA). These brigades would be similar to the "Advise and Assist Brigades" deployed to Iraq and the "Security Force Assistance Brigades" deployed to Afghanistan. Two recent news articles provide more info 1) "Top Army general outlines plans for new brigades, new technologies", Army Times, January 21, 2016. 2) "Learning From Our Mistakes in Selection and Training of Military Advisors", SOFREP, January 14, 2016.

Stable Afghanistan Needed. A top advisor to the Afghan President was recently interviewed by Ashish Kumar Sen of the Atlantic Council. He states that Afghanistan plays a pivotal role in the economic prosperity of the greater region and the neighboring nations would benefit from a stable Afghanistan. Read "Security and Economic Development are Two Sides of the Same Coin", The Atlanticist, January 12, 2016.

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Commentary


Long-Term U.S. Commitment needed. "Can Americans - and their next president - see past short-term campaign promises to save Afghanistan?" Currently there are 9,800 U.S. military serving in Afghanistan. This number should stay constant for the remainder of this year. But a new president will soon take the reins and with that change will come new policies. Read more in "Building Afghan Security Requires a Long-Term U.S. Commitment", Defense One, January 11, 2016.

Time for a Permanent Advisory Unit? The odds are that the U.S. is going to be deploying advisors to Afghanistan and Iraq for a long time. In addition, the "Building Partnership Capacity (BPC)" mission to many areas of the world will require service members who know how to train, mentor, and advise. Perhaps the time has come to consider a full-time and permanent unit similar to the Advise and Assist Brigades (AABs) deployed to Iraq or the Security Force Assistance Brigades (SFABs) deployed to Afghanistan? Read more in "Learning From Our Mistakes in Selection and Training of Military Advisors", SOFREP, January 14, 2016.

Podcast on Afghan War. One war correspondent with lots of time in Afghanistan is interviewed about his thoughts on the war and the upcoming year. Listen to Franz-Stefan Gady in Can the Afghan War Be Won in 2016?, The Diplomat, January 14, 2016.

Obama SOTU Address: Not Much to Say on Afg. In his annual State of the Union address President Barack Obama did not have much to say about the never-ending conflict in Afghanistan. But, then again, why bring up bad news when you are trying to paint a rosy picture about your presidency? Read more in "Afghan war grinds on, but it's mostly absent from Obama's final State of the Union", by Missy Ryan, The Washington Post, January 12, 2016.

Worries on Cutting Defense Spending. David A. Ochmanek, a senior defense analyst at RAND Corporation, is concerned about defense cuts. Read "If We Keep Cutting Defense Spending, We Must Do Less", RAND Corporation, January 2016.

Veteran Expresses Perspective on Continued Fighting. A Marine veteran, who served with the infantry in Afghanistan, reflects on the 15th year of the Afghan War. (Task & Purpose, Jan 14, 2016).

2015 Fighting Season. Jason Lyall, an Associate Professor of Political Science at Yale University, has posted a map depicting districts in Afghanistan that saw over 100 plus Taliban fighters gather to mount an attack on the Afghan security forces. See "Here are the five things you need to know about the 2015 fighting season in Afghanistan", The Washington Post, January 12, 2016.

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Commentary


"War of Ideas". Retired General Eric T. Olson explains the importance of the war of ideas when confronting the Taliban and the Islamic State. He believes the 'human terrain' is an important part of the conflict in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Read "Wars of Ideas" From the Taliban to the Islamic State", War on the Rocks, January 6, 2016.

2015 Success & Failures. Aziz Amin Ahmadzai says that "2015 saw Afghanistan face several challenges, but the National Unit Government (NUG) saw modest success as well." Failures include the Taliban's fragmentation, fall of Kunduz, NUG's ineffectiveness, rise of Islamic State, and migration of Afghan's young people to Europe. Successes are the regional approach to peace, security, and stability, India's support of the Salma Dam, and forward movement of the TAPI pipeline. Read "Afghanistan's Successes and Failures in 2015", The Diplomat, January 4, 2016.

C-SPAN2 Panel Discussion on Afghanistan. On January 4, 2016 a panel discussion took place, hosted by the Brookings Institution, on the Future of Afghanistan. The panelists (Vanda Felbab-Brown, Che Bolden, Jason Cone, Ann Vaughan, and Michael O'Hanlon) talked about the status of the war in Afghanistan and the efforts to stabilize the country. This 1 1/2 hour long video can be watched at the following link.
www.c-span.org/video/?402677-1/discussion-stability-security-afghanistan

Reasons for a Resurgent Taliban? Dawood Azami of the BBC World Service tells us why the Taliban are resurgent in Afghanistan. He cites three factors. First is the withdrawal of the bulk of the international forces from Afghanistan to include a significant reduction in advisors and air support. Second is the Pakistan military operation in 2014 that dislodged many Uzbek, Arab, and Pakistani militants from Pakistan area sanctuaries into Afghanistan. The third reason is the lack of capability of the Afghan security forces in air support, intelligence, and command and control. Naturally there are other factors as well. (BBC, Jan 5, 2016).

RoL & Afghanistan. Greg Klepois served as Senior Advisor to the Afghan Deputy Minister of Interior. He has penned a paper about the importance of understanding local legal structures and traditions before attempting to re-establish the Rule of Law and Police Reform. Posted on Small Wars Journal, December 31, 2015.

China & Afghanistan. China is participating more and more in activities relating to Afghanistan to include economic development and the pursuit of peace talks. Read China and Afghanistan After the NATO Withdrawal, Jamestown Foundation, Richard Weitz, November 2015.

"Red Teaming" - But Just Tell Me Good News! One of the unique endeavors of the Afghan War was an attempt by the U.S. military to look at different aspects of the conflict. The intent was to provide an alternative perspective to courses of action developed as a result of the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) and other staff processes used by many U.S. military staffs. The establishment of "Red Teams" (and there was an 18-week long course run by the Army to train up individuals in this job) at major headquarters went a long way to analyze operations (and their effects) from an different point of view. However, the 'bad news' was not always well-received. Read more in "Red Team: A tale of how a general didn't listen to internal criticism in Afghanistan", Best Defense - Foreign Policy, January 7, 2016.

Bloody Transition. The results of the past year of transition looks pretty grim with both Afghanistan's political condition and its security having sharply deteriorated. Read an analysis entitled "A bloody year of transition", The Economist, January 9, 2016.

Central Asia - Future Outlook. Fatemeh Safavi writes about the security prospects in the future for West and Central Asia in a report posted by Euroasia Review, January 5, 2016.

IR Theory and Gray Zone. USSOCOM has rolled out a concept called the "Gray Zone" in an attempt to inform government leaders and senior ranking military officers on the current and future nature of conflict in the space between peace and war. Many critics and observers are taking stock of this new term and providing their comments. The latest is from Stephen Okin in his blog post entitled "IR Theory and the Gray Zone", January 2, 2016.

Asia Expert Speaks on Afg. Andrew Wilder, vice president of Asia programs at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), speaks with National Public Radio's Scott Simon about why the war in Afghanistan intensified in 2015. He does mention state corruption under Karzai as one of the failures of Afghan leadership. Read "Asia Expert: Taliban's Resergence Threatens Afghanistan's Stability", NPR, January 2, 2016.

Sunday, January 3, 2016

Commentary


Gen Campbell on NATO's Commitment and Performance of ANDSF. COMRS or Commander Resolute Support has provided us with his perspective (think positive) on the situation in Afghanistan. He acknowledges that over the past year the persistence of the Taliban, growth of ISIS, continuing presence of al-Qaida, and insurgents pushed by a Pakistan-offensive into Afghanistan have presented challenges to the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). Yet he points to ability of the ANDSF to roll back Taliban gains (I guess he is ignoring places like Helmand, Bakdakshan, Nuristan, and other provinces), the formation of a new government (yes, he means the dysfunctional National Unit Government known as "NUG"), and the initiatives of the Afghan government and security forces to address corruption (Ummm, SMH), promote human rights and gender equality (which ISAF and now RS says about the Afghans each and every year). All in all this end of year pep talk includes all the important phrases such as "continuing improvement", "remain optimistic", "the insurgents cannot win militarily", etc. This assessment was issued just a week or so prior to six U.S. personnel being killed within the outskirts of the largest U.S. base in Afghanistan. Read "Commitment to Afghan National Defense and Security Forces is Working", Defense News, by General John Campbell, December 13, 2015.

Adm Stavridis on Afghanistan. The retired Admiral - now working at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy as "Dean", tells us that all is not lost in Afghanistan and he recommends 5 steps we should take to improve the situation. I think he is overly optimistic and somewhat influenced by the holiday spirit. (The World Post, Dec 23, 2015).

"Losing the War at Every Level". Anthony Cordesman injects some reality into the assessment of the Afghan conflict in his report entitled "Afghanistan a Year After Transition: Losing the War at Every Level", Center for Strategic & International Studies, December 22, 2015.

The Aftermath of Kunduz. Residents of Kunduz now live in constant fear that the Taliban will come back, retaking the city (if only for just days), and wreaking havoc once again. Read more in "Afghanistan: After Kunduz", by Patricia Gossman, The Diplomat, December 16, 2015.

Afghanistan - Another 30 Years War? Mark Thompson, writing for Time.com (Dec 22, 2015) says we might be in for another 15 years of conflict in Afghanistan. Read "Fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan Echoes the 30 Years War".

An Assessment & Recommendations. Michael O'Hanlon gives us his take on the current situation and proscribes the way forward (what he would do if King) in "Why Americans Are Still Dying in Afghanistan", Politico Magazine, December 22, 2015. (Caution: Cheerleader at work!). Read an article by O'Hanlon entitled "Afghanistan - the case for staying", USA Today, December 28, 2015. (More of the same). O'Hanlon does, however, point out that we should maintain TAAC's at each of the six ANA corps as well as some selected brigades. Good insight to pick up on that and spot on. Why we pulled our brigade level Security Force Assistance (SFA) teams off is a mystery. And to pull the corps level advisory platforms off of the 203rd and 215th ANA corps is simply bewildering!

Essay on Ground Combat. The U.S. has an effective military that can fight extremely well in conflicts such as Desert Storm and the initial weeks of Operation Iraqi Freedom. It has not done so well in conflicts that are essentially irregular, hybrid, or insurgent in nature (as in Afghanistan). David E. Johnson, a historian with RAND Corporation, provides us with his thoughts in "Ground Combat", The Cipher Brief, December 20, 2015.

Rule of Law Culture. A 320-page publication and practical guide by the United States Institute for Peace (USIP) entitled Towards a Rule of Law Culture explores effective responses to justice and security challenges. (USIP, Washington, DC, December 2015).

What of the Taliban? Chayankika Saxena, a research associate at the Society for Policy Studies in New Delhi, provides her assessment of the current state of the Taliban - to include aspects including peace talks, ISIS, Pakistan, Helmand province, public support, and more. Read more in "What has become of Taliban in Afghanistan?", South Asia Monitor, December 29, 2015.

What is BPC? The U.S. has military members spread across the globe in an attempt to increase the security and counterterrorism capabilities of our allies. This type of mission has been called many different names to include Foreign Internal Defense (FID), Counterinsurgency (COIN), Security Cooperation (SC), Security Force Assistance (SFA), and many more. Each has its own niche to fill although the terms could really be interchangeable. One such term in 'Building Partner Capacity' or BPC. Read an explanation of BPC in What is "Building Partner Capacity?": Issues for Congress, Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report, December 18, 2015. This 64-page report is posted on the website of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). Pages 20-23 specifically address BPC in Afghanistan from 2001-2015.
www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R44313.pdf

UW - Can the U.S. Government and Military Accept It? Dave Maxwell, a retired SF officer and now Associate Director of the Center for Security Studies in the School of Foreign Service of Georgetown University, is one of the Special Force's community's foremost experts on Unconventional Warfare. In this article he talks about the recent passage of the NDAA of 2016 and verbiage in it that proscribes a more robust involvement of the govt and military in UW and counter-UW activities. Read "Congress has Embraced Unconventional Warfare: Will the US Military and the Rest of the US Government?", Small Wars Journal, December 29, 2015.

India-Pakistan Detente - Good for Afghanistan? Colin Cookman has penned an article entitled "How India and Pakistan Detente Could Carry Over into Afghanistan", World Politics Review, December 21, 2015. He examines the possibilities - but let's not hold our breath.

Afghanistan's Various Challenges. "Security in Afghanistan deteriorated in 2015, while the national government struggles to promote national unity and economic development". New Europe provides an analysis in this Dec 23, 2015 article.

CVE and Gender Inequality. Julia Santucci, she works women's issues at the State Department, has penned an article entitled "Countering Violent Extremism Means Countering Gender Inequality", War on the Rocks, December 16, 2015. Not so sure there really is a connection; but she seems intent on spreading the message.

Don't Abandon Afghanistan. Amb. Ron Neumann, Vanda Felbab-Brown, and David Sedney collaborate on a piece in Foreign Policy (Dec 22, 2015) encouraging the U.S. to stay the course. Read "Now is not the time to abandon Afghanistan".

Army War College. Adam Davidson recently spent time in a classroom at the United States Army War College at Carlisle, Pennsylvania. Read his observations in "Rebuilding the Middle Class the Army Way", The New York Times Magazine, December 15, 2015.

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Commentary


Paper on NTM-A. Nick Barley has penned an informative history about the training of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). He traces the training programs implemented by the U.S. and NATO partners in "The NATO Training Mission - Afghanistan: A Game-Changer; Lest We Forget", Small Arms Journal, December 5, 2015.

"The Breadwinner". An Afghan film is receiving support from the American actress Angelina Jolie. (Khaama Press, Dec 6, 2015).

Moscow: From Kabul to Damascus. Ryan Evans reviews the history of the Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and puts the Russian intervention in Syria today in perspective. He says not to worry but keep a careful eye on the big bad bear. See his (very long) analysis in "Moscow's Clients From Kabul to Damascus: Strength and Strategy in International Politics", War on the Rocks, December 9, 2015.

Countering Violent Extremism (CVE). The new catch-word for those fighting terrorism is CVE. Some are discrediting it as a flawed concept while others say that it gets to the root causes of terrorism. The term is also a factor in the political arena as well. Shannon N. Green, a senior fellow and director of the Human Rights Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. provides her perspective on CVE in Preventing Violent Extremism: Promise and Pitfalls, CSIS, December 2, 2015.

Divisions Within the Taliban? Recent reports of shooting of Taliban leader reveals serious divisions within the Taliban. See "The Implications of the Taliban Shootout", The Diplomat, December 9, 2015.

Afghan Health Gains? Questionable. Rod Nordland of the NYT writes that the reported gains in health care for women in Afghanistan are under scrutiny. Read "Reported Gains in Afghan Maternal Health Are Found to Be Implausible", The New York Times, December 4, 2015.

PTSD and War Contractors. "Despite increased rates of post-traumatic stress among private contractors, little has been discussed about prevention and treatment. More and more contractors entering into combat environments are experiencing symptoms of post-traumatic stress when they return home". See "Why We Should Be Talking About Military Contractors With PTSD", Task & Purpose, December 9, 2015.

Time to Leave Afghanistan? Tom Mockaitis, an international security analyst and military historian, thinks the time has arrived to adjust our strategy and objectives. (The Huffington Post, December 26, 2015).

Dismal Mood in Kabul. A writer compares his visit to Kabul in 2008 with a more recent visit. The situation for many of the city residents is not hopeful. Almost everyone knows someone who has fled to Europe. Read more in "Desperation Rules Afghanistan", by Sanjay Kumar, The Diplomat, December 10, 2015.

Looking at Afghanistan Conundrum. Dr. Manoj Kuma Mishra, the program coordinator of the School of International Studies at Ravenshaw University in India provides his thoughts on Afghanistan in "Evolving a Coordinated Response to the Afghan Conundrum", Eurasia Review, December 10, 2015.

SSR, Gender Equality, and Local Ownership. ". . . it is increasingly recognized that mainstreaming gender issues and promoting gender equality in SSR programming is essential to success and is a key factor in developing meaningful local ownership." Read more about gender issues and Security Sector Reform (SSR) in "Security Sector Reform and the Paradoxical Tension between Local Ownership and Gender Equality", Security Sector Reform Resource Centre, December 2015.

Research on Women and Terrorism. Laura Sjoberg has penned an essay entitled The Women of Daesh: Thinking about a Decade of Research on Women, Gender, and Terrorism, E-International Relations, December 6, 2015.

General Order No. 1. Time to Update this asinine regulation. Finally a dose of common sense from an observer! While all our allies in Afghanistan can have a brew or two daily members of the American military can only look on with envy. Read "Reevaluating General Order 1X"Small Wars Journal, December 5, 2015.

Sunday, December 6, 2015

Commentary


Counter-IED Capabilities Need Investments. Over the last few years the U.S. military has attempted, unsuccessfully, to put Afghanistan and Iraq (and things like COIN, C-IED, JIEDDO, etc.) into the rear view mirror. Unfortunately conflicts like these will continue to pop up over the horizon and the use of IEDs by the combatants that we will oppose will stay just as prevalent as they were on the roads of Iraq and Afghanistan. Read more in "Growing Terrorist Threat Requires New U.S. Investments in Counter-IED Capabilities", by Daniel Goure, Real Clear Defense, November 30, 2015.

Deobandi Islam, Pashtunwali, and the Taliban. "The Taliban are arguably more powerful now than at any point since they were ousted in 2001." This power comes not just from the support the Pakistan state provides but from the civilian population of Afghanistan tired of an ineffective and corrupt national government. The Taliban's more moderate approach and ". . . increasingly resurgent narrative of stability through reverting to Afghanistan's past . . . " is generating ever-growing support from the rural Afghan population. Peter Storey provides us with his view of the Taliban in "The Roots of the Taliban", The Bridge, December 1, 2015.

Pivoting From Pakistan. When President Ghani took office he made a deliberate effort to revitalize the Afghan- Pakistan relationship . . . but it wasn't reciprocated. Now it would appear he is reaching out to India at the risk of weakening ties with Pakistan. Read more in "Ghani's Pivot Away From Pakistan", by Shawn Snow, Foreign Policy, November 25, 2015.

Fighting a War in a Land-Locked Country Like Afghanistan. A U.S. Air Force C-17 aircraft commander provides his perspective on the difficulties of fighting a war in a country that is remote and bordered by less than reliable allies. His paper describes exactly how difficult it is to get the Pakistan government to stop its support of the Taliban given the overflight requirements needed to prosecute the war. "Pakistan Catch-22: The Trouble with Wars in Landlocked Countries", The Bridge, December 2, 2015.

Fractured Taliban? Tamim Hamid provides us with an explanation of the current state of the Taliban leadership in "A Divided Taliban Explained", Tolo News, December 3, 2015.

Corruption Hindering the Fight. Corruption in Afghanistan has had a corrosive impact on military operations. It undermines the legitimacy of the Afghan government, provides fodder for recruitment into the Taliban (and ISIS), and has rendered ineffective the Afghan National Police (and to a lesser degree the Afghan National Army). The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) undermined its own objective of creating security in the country with its initial inattention to the problem. Read "How Corruption Undermines NATO Operations", Defense One, December 2, 2015.

Kagan on Afghanistan. Fred Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute and a observer of the Afghan conflict provides his thoughts on what the US needs to do in Afghanistan. He sees the insurgent groups gaining more territory and capability as time goes on and a weak ANDSF that is seeing its international support slowly diminish. He advocates for more US troops and expanded authorities for those currently stationed there. He believes that the appropriate troop level is likely around 20,000 to 30,000. Read The Afghanistan Conundrum: How Should the US Approach the Rise of Insurgent Groups?, AEI, December 2, 2015.

French COIN. The vast majority of our senior level general officers would like to put the counterinsurgency years of Iraq and Afghanistan behind us - well, . . . they can't. COIN is not going away. While folks are painting the conflict in Syria and Iraq with ISIS as counterterrorism there is still many aspects of the fight that is a counterinsurgency. And in Afghanistan, the Afghan security forces are conducting counterinsurgency (while U.S. and NATO advisors busy themselves with advising the Afghan security institutions and corps-level organizations on 'systems', 'functions', and 'processes'). Many U.S. "COIN experts" draw upon the experiences of the French pacification of Algeria for 'lessons learned'. In particular, they read the tracts provided to us by two noted French officers - David Galula and Roger Trinquier. However, one student of French strategy suggests that a truer picture of the French COIN effort in Algeria can be gained by digging deeper into French military historical writings. Read "Myth-Busting French Counterinsurgency", by Terrence Peterson, War on the Rocks, December 3, 2015.

Is the U.S. Army's Personnel System Broke? YES! A 1LT who spent two years studying at Oxford instead of holding standard military jobs expected of junior officers was almost forced out of the Army. Besides being a Rhodes Scholar he was at the top of his ROTC class. And although over 90% of his peers were getting promoted he was being left behind. Read more about some of the systemic problems the Army's personnel bureaucracy is experiencing in "First Steps Towards the Force of the Future"War on the Rocks, December 1, 2015.

PowerPoint in Armored Vehicles - Really? OMG, so it finally happened. The Army's officers have figured out a way to display PowerPoint slides in an armored. Trust me - this is not a good thing. My experience with creating PowerPoint slides to convey a message to senior level officers is that the font type, size, and color is much more important than the content. Read "This armored vehicle lets you use PowerPoint on the battlefield"The Washington Post, December 1, 2015. For more info see "I Corps validates new mobile command post proof-of-concept"www.army.mil, November 29, 2015.

All Military Occupations Open to Women - SECDEF. Ash Carter, the Secretary of Defense, announced that beginning in January 2016, all military occupations and positions will be open to women, without exception. This includes all units and organizations in the infantry and in special operations. So far in 2015 two women passed the very tough Ranger Course at Fort Benning; perhaps we will see some women enter Special Forces training at Fort Bragg in 2016. Let's hope that a advance in "fairness" and "political correctness" will not result in the implementation of quotas, a lowering of standards, the erosion of unit cohesiveness, and a decrease in combat effectiveness. Read more in "Carter Opens all Military Occupations, Positions to Women", DoD News Release, December 3, 2015.

Women in the Marine Corps Infantry? RAND Corporation conducted a study for the U.S. Marine Corps that reviewed the literature on the integration of women in combat units, conducted interviews with members of organizations with physically demanding occupations, estimated the costs of potential initiatives to promote successful gender integration, and develop an approach for monitoring implementation of gender integration of the infantry. Read "Implications of Integrating Women into the Marine Corps Infantry", Rand Corporation, November 2015.

Women in Ground Combat Units? A doctor very familiar with sports science adds his voice to this topic. Read "Sports Science, Physiology, and the Debate over Women in Ground Combat Units", by Dr. Paul O. Davis, War on the Rocks, December 1, 2015.

Sunday, November 29, 2015

Commentary


Reasons Not to Use Local Proxies. Joshua Foust argues against the use of local proxies by the United States in advancing U.S. national interests - as in the training, equipping, and advising the Iraqi and Afghan security forces. Can't say I agree with him. My thoughts are that we were (and are) less than successful in the 'use of proxies' not because of a bad strategy or policy but because of 1) poor execution - bureaucratic processes, poor selection and training of advisors, etc. and 2) a lack of political will to hold our 'proxies' leadership accountable - as in Malaki in Iraq (Shia Sunni divide) and Karzai in Afghanistan (corruption and nepotism). Read more in "The Local Proxy Problem", Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), November 22, 2015.

Kabul's Street Politics. The recent kidnapping and beheading of Hazara civilians taken off a bus in Zabul sparked massive street protests in Kabul. Some observers look at this as a new development - where Afghans take to the streets to advocate for issues. Read more in "Kabul's New Street Politics", Foreign Affairs, by Robert D. Crews, November 26, 2015.

Stability Operations in 21st Century. An article by Steven A. Zyck and Robert Muggah looks at the relationship between security and development in stabilization environments in their article "Preparing Stabilisation for 21st Century Security Challenges", Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, November 2015.

Security Assistance & Importance of Governance. Two critics look at the failures of U.S. security assistance and cooperation programs (Africa, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan) and provide their thoughts. Read "Ignoring Governance Puts Military Aid in Peril", Security Assistance Monitor, November 19, 2015.

Optimism Ending in Afghanistan. "Fifty-seven percent of Afghans say their country is heading in the wrong direction, the most pessimistic view recorded in 10 years of the Asia Foundation's annual survey of Afghan's attitudes. Unemployment and insecurity are the main causes for a sharp fall this year in public optimism . . . " Read more in "In Afghanistan, and End to Optimism?", by Gopal Ratnam, United States Institute of Peace (USIP), November 20, 2015.

Frustrated Afghans are Leaving. New public opinion data shows the governance shortcomings of Afghanistan's National Unity Government and the countries citizens are frustrated and opting for a better life outside of Afghanistan. Read "Why Afghanistan's Citizens Are Frustrated . . . And Leaving", The Diplomat, November 24, 2015.

Paper on Authoritarian COIN. David H. Ucko, an associate professor at the College of International Security Affairs (CISA), National Defense University, and an adjunct research fellow at the Department of War Studies, King's College London, has wrote a paper entitled "'The People are Revolting': An Anatomy of Authoritarian Counterinsurgency", The Journal of Strategic Studies, November 2015.

Will Taliban Fragment? The Taleban movement has entered its third decade and has held up as an organization. While there have been rifts within the organization - especially after the announcement of the death of Mullah Omar - they do not pose a great threat to the insurgent organization. Read more in "Toward Fragmentation? Mapping the post-Omar Taleban", by Borhan Osman, Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN),  November 24, 2015.

India - Afghanistan Relations? "Recent developments in the India-Afghanistan bilateral relationship suggests a major shift may be afoot." President Ghani got off to a rough start with his attempt to open a dialogue with Pakistan on security issues and to restart the peace process. This temporary situation was finally reversed when Ghani found Pakistan less than sincere. Now the move to India is back on - but with a 'lost year' to make up for. Read more in "A Turning Point in Afghanistan-India Relations?", by Ankit Panda, The Diplomat, November 24, 2015.

Understanding Motives in Afghan Drug Trade. In a lengthy article, Mathilde Simon helps us understand the evolution of the drug trade in Afghanistan and Afghan farmers' decision to grow opium poppies. Once this is understood - efforts can be devised to provide alternatives to Afghan farmers. Read "The Drug Trade in Afghanistan: Understanding Motives Behind Farmers' Decision to Cultivate Opium Poppies", Foreign Policy Journal, November 27, 2015.

More on India and Afghanistan. Read "What is the State of Afghanistan's Relationship with India?", The Diplomat, November 25, 2015.

UK SDSR 2015. The Brits have released the Strategic Defense and Security Review (SDSR) 2015. Read some comments. (Think Defence, November 2015). See also a report by USNI.org, November 23, 2015.

Origins of the Durand Line. This border, negotiated in an agreement between the Emirate of Afghanistan and British India, divides the Pashtun tribal regions. Pasthunistan, as this area is informally known, also resulted in the loss of Baluchistan to British India - depriving Afghanistan of its historic access to the Arabian Sea. The Durand Line has been a source of conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan to the present day and is an issue that remains unsettled to this day. Read more in "Afghanistan and Pakistan: The Poisoned Legacy of the Durand Line", by Joseph V. Micallef, The World Post, November 21, 2015.

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Commentary


Need for a "Warrior Statesmen Regiment". Understanding complex wars like Afghanistan requires a flexible military that has diversity in its methodology and processes. One writer believes that the Army's personnel system is flawed and the militarys approaches to warfighting (as in MDMP) is not well suited to complex problems. He recommends the establishment of a course or school (and unit?) that ". . . would cover the human factors necessary to handle complexity . . .". Read more in the article by Alexander Frank, "Complexity, Psychology, and Modern War", Small Wars Journal, November, 17, 2015.

Panel Discussion on U.S. Mission in Afghanistan - Nov 23rd. The Middle East Institute will be hosting a discussion a entitled "Reappraising the U.S. Military Strategy and Mission in Afghanistan" on Monday, November 23rd from 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm EST. Panel participants include LTG (R) David Barno of the American University (also senior commander in Afghanistan from 2003 to 2005), Ali Jalali - former Interior Minister of Afghanistan and now with NDU, and others.
www.mei.edu/events/us-military-mission-afghanistan-succeeding

Stability Operations Era. Dr. Mark Moyar (author, consultant, and strategist) notes that "the stability operations era was born of the debris of the 9/11 attacks and operationalized with the occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq." He also recognizes that one of the lessons from conflicts such as Afghanistan ". . . is that developing competent and committed local forces is often a linchpin of sustainable success." Read "FPI Analysis: The Stability Operations Era", The Foreign Policy Initiative, November 18, 2015.

"Force of the Future". Defense Secretary Ashton Carter has announced a group on initiatives to maintain the DoD's competitive edge in keeping and bringing in top talent to serve in the military. Read an analysis of this new program in "The Force of the Future", by Mark F. Cancian and Todd Harrison, Center for Strategic & International Studies, November 19, 2015.

MC-02 - An Exercise Breaking the Rules. Gary Anderson and Dave Dilegge write on the lessons of Millennium Challenge 02 in "Six Rules for Wargaming", War on the Rocks, November 11, 2015.

Balancing India and Pakistan. Afghanistan is in a difficult position today. Can it walk the line between India and its next door neighbor? Pakistan sees Afghanistan in terms of its strategic fight with India and considers Afghanistan as its strategic rear and a possible second front during a war with India. Therefore its policy of keeping Afghanistan in a state of turmoil with its support of the Afghan Taliban. India sees opportunity for diplomatic and economic advancement - something that Pakistan opposes. Read "On a Tightrope", by Umair Jamal, The Diplomat, November 16, 2015.

Sunday, November 15, 2015

Commentary


Anxiety Grows in Afghanistan. The security situation is going downhill in Kabul and across many parts of Afghanistan. One constantly hears the drumbeat of Resolute Support Headquarters that the Afghan National Defense Security Forces (ANDSF) are continuing to improve their capabilities; but that feeling of optimism is not reflected in the events on the ground. Read more in "Anxiety Grows as Conditions Worsen in Afghanistan", NPR Parallels, November 10, 2015.

Video - Foreign Afghan Interior Minister. In a 90-minute video by C-Span we hear about the security situation in Afghanistan and future prospects. The speaker, Mohammad Umer Daudzai,  served as President Karzai's chief of staff from 2003-2005 and 2007 to 2011. He also served as the Minister of Interior (MoI) for a period of time (2013-2014) as well as the Afghan ambassador to Pakistan and Iran.
www.c-span.org/video/?400457-1/discussion-future-afghanistan

WTO and Afghanistan. "After nearly 11 years of negotiations, Afghanistan and the World Trade Organization (WTO) have finally agreed on the country's terms of accession to the global trade body. But will this help revive the flailing economy?" Read "How joining the WTO could impact Afghanistan", Deutsche Welle, Nov 2015.

COIN and Development in FATA. Hijab Shah, a columist, has penned an article posted in Georgetown Security Studies Review, November 12, 2015, entitled "Counterinsurgency and Development in FATA: Lessons from US Experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan". The Pakistani armed forces claim to have entered the decisive phase in their counterinsurgency operations against the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) in the country's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). In order to consolidate the victory the government will need to step up its post-conflict stabilization activities in FATA.

Training for Human Domain. "This monograph offers an outline for educating U.S. and allied service personnel in fundamental human domain skills and argues against their being overlooked in favor of technical solutions.Experience from Afghanistan and Iraq has demonstrated the vital nature of understanding human terrain, with conclusions relevant far beyond counterinsurgency operations in the Islamic world." Read Training Humans for the Human Domain, by Dr. Steve Tatham and Mr. Keir Giles, Strategic Studies Institute, United States Army War College Press, 61 pages, November 2015.
www.hsdl.org/?view&did=788366

Gender Stuff and DoD. According to the United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1325 on Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) the worlds military's need to improve the way it addresses 21st century security challenges. U.S. Army I Corps recently incorporated WPS into the Talisman Sabre 2015 exercise (with Australia). Read comments on this development by Brenda Oppermann - a stability operations advisor, gender expert and human rights lawyer - in "DoD Finally Gets the Point of Women, Peace, and Security", Small Wars Journal, November 13, 2015.

New Strategy for Afghanistan Needed. Daniel L. Davis, a retired Lt. Col. of the U.S. Army and now a analyst on national security, believes that the mission for Afghanistan needs to change. The focus on a military solution has not worked and will not work; we should try for a negotiated political solution to the conflict.  Read more in "America Needs a New Afghanistan Strategy", The National Interest, November 10, 2015.

Sunday, November 8, 2015

Commentary


RAND Paper on Security Cooperation. Christopher Paul (of RAND) has published a transcript entitled What Works Best When Conducting Security Cooperation?, CT-441, October 2015. The pub is the testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee on October 21, 2015. Some important points outlined for the committee include aligning "with partner nation security forces' baseline capabilities and their ability to absorb training and technology", "relationships matter, and they can take time to establish", "characteristics or features of partners improve prospects for security cooperation success", and "consistency and sustainment are key".

Russia Revisits Afghanistan? Recent security reverses in Afghanistan, the resurgence of the Taliban, large swathes of terrain in northern Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban, and other factors have Central Asian states and Russia deeply concerned. Khyber Sarban explores this in depth in his article entitled "Russia in Afghanistan: Past as Prologue?", The Diplomat, November 4, 2015.

The 'Forever War'. Ann Jones, book writer, columnist, feminist, and former Afghan expat writes about the hopeless situation in Afghanistan in "Afghanistan 'After' the American War", Huffington Post Blog, November 5, 2015.

A Tale of Two Afghan Armies. Lemar Alexander Farhad examines the performance of the former Afghan Communist Army with today's Afghan National Army using two decisive incidents. The Battles of Jalalabad 1989 and Kunduz 2015 illustrate the comparative capabilities of the two Afghan armies. The author also explores the ANA's motivational belief system, what motivates them (nationalism vs. ethnic / tribal affiliation), and lack of will to fight. Read the report in Small Wars Journal, November 3, 2015.

What Should U.S. Do in Afghanistan? The decision by Obama to stop the flow of U.S. troops out of Afghanistan allowing them to continue the Counterterrorism and Train, Advise, and Assist mission at current troop levels is an important step to halting to slide into deepening instability in that country. However, that is not enough. More needs to be done on the political front. 1) improve the constitutional process and fix the problems generated by the NUG, 2) help reform the electoral processes, 3) help in building the relationship between the central government in Kabul and the re-emergence of sub-national power brokers, and 4) assist in the negotiations with the Taliban. At least, that is what Rebecca Zimmerman of the RAND Corporation thinks has to happen. Read her article in "Saving Afghanistan: More Than Just Troops", War on the Rocks, November 5, 2015.

Lessons from Afghanistan. Janine Davidson, a Senior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, is interviewed about Iraq and Afghanistan. Read (or listen to the podcast) in "Lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan: Facing Future Defense Challenges", Council on Foreign Relations, November 4, 2015.

Political Centralization in Afghanistan. Ahmad Murid Partaw writes about the costs of political centralization in Afghanistan and how the highly-centralized political system has deepened the country's problems. (Foreign Policy Journal, Nov 4, 2015).

Ashraf Haidari on US-Iran Nuclear Deal & Afghanistan. Haidari, a former high-level Afghan national security official, provides his view that the JCPOA is a win-win situation for the Middle East and believes that similar negotiation efforts concerning Afghanistan will be of great benefit in the future. Read "Afghanistan after the US-Iran nuclear deal", Observer Research Foundation (ORF), November 4, 2015.

The U.S. Military's Broke Personnel System. One need only look at how the U.S. Army and other services assigned personnel to work at the Afghan Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defense as advisors to realize that the military's personnel system is very broke. Air Force Colonels were assigned as advisors to the MoD's Ground Force Command (GFC), Navy logistics officers to advise ANCOP kandaks, and a reserve logistics Navy officer (06) who specialized in computer software in her civilian occupation was assigned as the principal advisor to the Afghan Public Protection Force (APPF). But the problem is much bigger than that and it is resulting in the loss of valuable people. Read more in "Can the U.S. Military Halt its Brain Drain?", The Atlantic, November 5, 2015.

Millennium Challenge (MC-02) - a Lesson in Red Teaming. Shortly after the invasion of Afghanistan and less than a year prior to the invasion of Iraq the U.S. military conducted one of the largest and most integrated military exercise ever - Millennium Challenge. The exercise was to be transformational - introducing concepts such as Effects Based Operations (EBO) and other advanced ways of thinking about military operations. The exercise was deemed a success or failure (depending on who you listened to). Read more in "Millennium Challenge: The Real Story of a Corrupted Military Exercise and Its Legacy", by Micah Zenko, War on the Rocks, November 5, 2015. On a related note, the Center for Strategic Leadership Newsletter (Carlisle Barracks, PA) has a number of articles about conflict simulation and wargaming.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Commentary


"Today's training and advisory effort is only engaged at the regional corps level, not the brigades and battalions actually doing the fighting. Our advisors are helping only with support efforts such as human resources and procurement. This kind of effort is important for long-term success at the institutional level but the Afghans need tactical operational support now". This is probably one of the most accurate statements about the train and advise mission in Afghanistan that describes the current situation. See news story by Mike Waltz, Defense One, October 15, 2015.
Time for a COIN A-10? The U.S. Air Force plans (despite objections of Congress) to scrap its very capable fleet of A-10 Warthogs in other to free up funding for its very expensive and less capable (in terms of Close Air Support) F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. One analyst says we need both - that it is time for a counterinsurgency-specific A-10. Read "A Tale of Two Air Forces", Atlantic Council, October 11, 2015.

Bacha Bazi and the U.S. Military. One writer, Justin Lynch, provides us his view of what the U.S. military needs to do when confronted with Bacha Bazi among our Afghan allies. He believes that ". . . failing to prevent our allies from recreationally kidnapping and raping Afghan boys will hinder the United States' efforts in Afghanistan". Read "National Security, Pragmatism, and Human Rights", The Medium.com, October 13, 2015.

It's the Economy, Stupid. Daniel Fisher, a former infantryman who served in Afghanistan, tells us how we are missing the boat in our counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan. Read "COIN & the Capitalists: Private Sector Development and the Endgame in Afghanistan", Small Wars Journal, October 12, 2015.

Proxy Warfare - Not so Much. Adam Elkus tells us why the use of proxies to fight America's wars may not be such a great idea in "The Moral Hazard of Proxy Warfare", War on the Rocks, October 14, 2015.

Can Afghan Govt Forces Win? Thomas Biddle, a national security analyst, is interviewed about the current security situation in Afghanistan and prospects for the future. Read "Can Afghan Forces Resist the Taliban?", Defense One, October 9, 2015.