Afghan MoD Rejects SIGAR Report

A recent report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has revealed some alarming statistics about the Afghan National Army (ANA). In January 2015 SIGAR released its quarterly report to Congress on the reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. SIGAR relies on ISAF (now called Resolute Support) to provide statistics on the ANSF. Last fall ISAF provided some ANSF information but - for the first time in years - some important data was classified. The news media and Congress questioned this new practice of classifying information that in years prior was released to the public. Resolute Support HQs reversed itself and released the data in early 2015. SIGAR has now issued a supplement to the January 2015 report to Congress which includes the updated, once classified figures.

The statistics provided in the updated SIGAR supplemental report are troublesome. ANA desertions, casualties, and discharges among its personnel is at an all-time high - and the ANA personnel strength is down almost 20,000. The ANA strength is now at 2011 levels (4 years ago). This is an alarming statistic. Couple this report about the ANA with a recent report about the personnel strength of the Afghan National Police (ANP) and its numerous "ghost policemen" and there would seem to be a big problem in the ANSF - one that Resolute Support Headquarters must be aware of but does not seem to be raising alarms about - at least publicly.

The Afghan Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a statement on March 4, 2015 rejecting the SIGAR report that indicated ANA soldiers were deserting en mass. But it did acknowledge a significant decline in its ranks. MoD claims it is exploring solutions to fix the problem. It should start with a review of its leadership and reduce corruption.

Leadership. The ANA has at all levels too many commanders who are ill-suited to be in leadership positions. Many do not take proper care of the soldiers in their units. Food is marginal, living conditions inadequate, medical care sometimes slow or non-existent, pay is erratic, and leave policies not followed. If ANA soldiers were treated better by their commanders then many would opt to stay in beyond their contracts and some less would be likely to desert.

Corruption. This remains one of the biggest problems in the ANA. Pay is taken from soldiers, food and fuel diverted to markets and the profits go to commander's pockets, and equipment meant for the ANA (vehicle repair parts) find their way into the bazaars. If corruption within the army was reduced more soldiers may be tempted to remain in the service of their country.

Afghanistan NGO Security Incidents - 2014

The International NGO Safety Organisation (INSO) provides analysis & advise for humanitarians. The organization is dedicated to supporting the safety of humanitarian aid workers who often risk their lives in the service of the world's most vulnerable people. INSO provides data on NGO security incidents. Below is a chart depicting security incidents in Afghanistan involving NGOs during 2014. The data reflects incidents, fatalities, injuries and abductions. (source INSO website).

ANSF Suffer Heavy Losses in 2014

The Afghan Army lost more than 20,000 fighters last year largely because of desertions, discharges and deaths in combat. It also saw a significant decline in personnel end strength - casting doubts on its ability to provide security for the nation. Staffing levels have fallen to the lowest levels since 2011. Read more in "Figures From U.S.-Led Coalition Show Heavy Losses for Afghan Army", The New York Times, March 3, 2015. See also "The Afghan military is shrinking as the Pentagon withdraws its troops", The Washington Post, March 3, 2015.

ICRC Cites Increased Casualties in 2014

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) states that the increase in violence in Afghanistan in 2014 has resulted in rising humanitarian needs of the Afghan population. Last year (2014) there was a 37% increase in its transportation of wounded combatants from the battlefield to health centres and a doubling of its recovery of mortal remains of combatants. The civilian population faced increasing difficulties in reaching health care due to the rising level of violence in the country and the deteriorating security situation. Read more in "Afghanistan: Escalating violence brings increased suffering to war-weary Afghans", International Committee of the Red Cross, February 9, 2015.

NATO Airstrike CIVCAS in Logar

According to Afghan news agencies a NATO airstrike caused civilian casualties in the Baraki Barak district of Logar province on Friday. The airstrike hit a civilian home.  Read more in "NATO Airstrike Kills 5 in Logar", Tolo News, December 27, 2014.

U.S. Casualties Identified

News reports have identified the latest U.S. casualties in the Afghan War. SPC Wyatt J. Martin of Mesa, Arizona and SFC Ramon S. Morris of New York, New York died Friday in Parwan province, Afghanistan when their convoy was attacked by an improvised explosive device. They were members of the 3rd Engineer Battalion, 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division from Fort Hood, Texas. Read more in "Soldiers From Arizona, New York Killed in Afghanistan", ABC News,  December 14, 2014. See also a DoD News Release identifying the casualties (December 14, 2014).

Two U.S. Soldiers Killed Sat

News reports say that two U.S. Soldiers were killed when their convoy came under attack near Bagram Air Base north of Kabul. The attack (took place either Friday night or early Saturday morning) was a roadside bomb; the Taliban claimed responsibility in a Twitter message.The ISAF news media has confirmed the two deaths. Read more in "Two American Soldiers Killed in Afghanistan Attack: Official", NBC News, December 13, 2014.

Special Forces Soldier Dies in Zabul Province

A Special Forces Soldier of 3rd Battalion, 7th Special Forces Group died of small arms fire on December 3, 2014 in Zabul province, southern Afghanistan. He was with his unit conducting a clearing operation at the time. SSG Ammerman enlisted in the U.S. Army in 2004. He served with the 509th Infantry Battalion (Alaska) and deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq with that unit. He later served with the 69th Armor Regiment (Georgia). He volunteered for Special Forces in 2012. Details were released by ISAF, Army Times, and stateside newspapers. See a press release from United States Army Special Operations Command (USASOC).

Guide to U.S. Military Casualties

The Congressional Research Service (CRS) has published a CRS report entitled "A Guide to U.S. Military Casualty Statistics" dated November 20, 2014. It covers the conflicts of Inherent Resolve, Operation New Dawn, Operation Iraqi Freedom, and Operation Enduring Freedom. The report includes statistics on PTSD, TBI, amputations, evacuations, and the demographics of casualties. Read more in "Document: Guide to U.S. Military Casualty Statistics", USNI News, December 1, 2014.

Two ISAF Members Killed in Afghanistan

ABC News is reporting that two ISAF members were killed in Afghanistan around 9 a.m. on Monday. Reportedly a bomb was attached to a bicycle that detonated near a foreign military convoy in the eastern part of Kabul. (November 24, 2014). The LA Times reports that the bombing occurred near Green Village (a secure compound for contractors) along Jalalabad Road.

Green Beret Dies in Kunduz Province

ISAF is reporting that a servicemember died as a result of an enemy forces attack in northern Afghanistan on Friday, November 14, 2014. According to a DoD news release and news accounts SFC Michael A. Cathcart, age 31, died from small arms fire during a dismounted combat operation in Kunduz province. He was assigned to 3rd Battalion, 3rd Special Forces Group at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. In addition to five tours in Afghanistan with Special Forces he had served two tours of duty in Iraq (2003 and 2005) with the 101st Airborne Division. He was the tenth Soldier from Special Forces to lose his life in Afghanistan in 2014.

UK Remembers the Fallen

The United Kingdom military forces held remembrance services in Afghanistan to remember the fallen from the Afghan War and previous conflicts. Read more in "British Forces in Afghanistan Remember the Fallen", UK Forces TV, November 10, 2014. (print and video).

Afghans Struggle to Save Their Wounded

Starting in mid-2013 and going into 2014 ISAF started to refuse to fly almost all requests for MEDEVACs from the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Whether this was the right or wrong thing to do depends on your perspective and the circumstances of each individual incident. Certainly if you were the Afghan soldier who bled to death on the battlefield while you looked up and saw helicopters flying overhead it sucked. If you were the team leader of a Security Force Assistance Advisory Team (SFAAT) supporting an infantry kandak or a Special Forces ODA team leader advising the Afghan Local Police and your higher headquarters denied a request from you for a MEDEVAC you were put in a bad situation; especially as the Afghan died in front of you. If you were at a higher level within ISAF attempting to get the Afghans to use their own MEDEVAC capability then you were "doing the right thing" in forcing the Afghans to use their ground ambulances and their very basic field hospitals. But the bottom line is the Afghans, "our allies", were bleeding to death on the battlefield and dying in Afghan hospitals because of lack of medicine, qualified doctors, field hospitals, corruption . . . and an ISAF refusal to fly MEDEVACs.

While ISAF would tell you that things have gotten a lot better (in terms of ANSF capability to provide medical evacuation from the battlefield and hospital care), others would tell you a different story. Read more in "Special Report: Left to fight alone, Afghanistan battles to save wounded", Reuters, November 5, 2014.

Suicides Leading Cause of Death

According to the Medical Surveillance Monthly Report (MSMR), Volume 21, Number 10, October 2014, suicides has replaced war as the leading cause of death in the military. For the last two years, suicide has accounted for about three in 10 military deaths. Read more in "Suicide surpassed war as the military's leading cause of death", USA Today, October 31, 2014.

ANSF Casualties Not Sustainable

A top United States military commander in Afghanistan says that the casualties suffered by the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are not sustainable. LTG Joseph Anderson, the commander of the ISAF Joint Command (IJC), says that since the beginning of 2013, the ANSF have suffered nearly 9,000 fatalities. In comparison, the U.S. has lost 2,246 troops in OEF since 2001. The number of troops from the ANSF going AWOL is also high. Currently the Afghan National Police (ANP) is at 89 percent strength while the Afghan National Army (ANA) is at 81 per cent strength. LTG Anderson reports that the ANSF are winning since they are able to hold their ground against the enemy. Hmmm. Most counterinsurgency experts say that if the government forces are not defeating insurgents in their base areas (support and attack zones), the insurgents are continuing to operate, have freedom to move in the rural areas, and can pick the time and place to attack the government forces then the insurgents are considered to be winning. I guess it depends on which Field Manual you read. Read more on ANSF casualties in "US commander: Afghan casualties not sustainable", Stars and Stripes, November 5, 2014.

Suicide Car Bomber Kills 11 ANSF

A suicide car bomber killed eleven members of the Afghan security forces and wounded over 20 civilians near a police checkpoint in Azra district eastern Logar province in Afghanistan. Read more in "Suicide car bomber kills 11 police, soldiers in Afghanistan", Reuters, November 1, 2014.

Trends of 2014 Fighting Season

The fighting season in Afghanistan typically starts in the spring and ends in the fall. Insurgent activity does not end completely; it just subsides significantly (somewhere around 30 to 60 %). The Afghan National Security Forces (army and police) usually take the winter time to do some re-training, re-fitting, leave time, and re-organization; although 2012 and 2013 saw some ANSF activity to "shape" the battlefield for the summer fighting seasons. This past fighting season (2014) is easing up; the activity level will go down as we move into November. Both the Taliban and the ANSF (along with ISAF) conduct a review of what worked and what didn't work. Once the fighting season assessments are completed, then they adapt their training and preparations for the upcoming fighting season (2015). One analyst, Jason Lyall, has identified five trends and lessons of the 2014 fighting season. Jason is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Yale University and his work examines wartime dynamics of violence and insurgencies.

1. The ANSF suffered highest loss rates of war in 2014.
2. Taliban massed on the battlefield with operations against 41 districts.
3. Taliban now has capability to conduct operations across the entire country.
4. Pakistan's aid to the Taliban continues and may have increased.
5. Intensity of fight forced ISAF to use its dwindling air power.

You can read his entire analysis of these five trends in "A (fighting) season to remember in Afghanistan", The Washington Post, October 20, 2014.

WSJ - "Afghan Troop Casualties are Rising"

The Afghan Ministry of Defense (MoD) has released some casualty figures. Since March 21st, 2014 (the beginning of the Afghan calendar year) over 950 soldiers were killed. The casualty figures from the Ministry of Interior (MoI) show that over 2,200 policemen have died since March 2014. Using the western calendar - starting January 1, 2014 a total of 4,380 Afghan soldiers and policemen have been killed in combat. Thus far, 2014 has been the deadliest year for Afghan troops since the war began 13 years ago. Read more in "Afghan Troop Casualties Are Rising", The Wall Street Journal, October 22, 2014.

Khost Protection Force Suffers Casualties

Eight Afghan soldiers belonging to the Khost Protection Force were killed during an engagement in eastern Afghanistan. The deaths were caused by a car bomb that exploded during a raid on a remote compound by the paramilitary unit. Once they had secured the compound a car bomb went off. The Khost Protection Force was established, supported, and paid for by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Read more in "Car Bomb Kills 8 Afghans From Unit Linked to C.I.A.", The New York Times, October 15, 2014.

Taliban Kill 22 ANSF in Sar-e Pol Province

News reports are indicating that 22 Afghan security personnel were killed in an ambush in Sar-e-Pul province in northern Afghanistan. Eight more were wounded and seven were captured. Six convoy vehicles were destroyed. Northern Afghanistan has seen an uptick in insurgent activity in the past few years as ISAF forces have conducted their retrograde (withdrawal). In the north the (mostly European countries) have collapsed from the east and west into the center (onto Camp Marmal in Mes-e-Sharif). Read more in "Afghanistan Taliban kill 22 in mountain ambush", BBC News Asia, October 13, 2014.