Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Central Asia and Afghan Drawdown

Central Asian states are concerned about the spread of ISIS and the possible flow of insurgents northward from the Afghan nation. The situation in northern Afghanistan gets worse and worse as years go by. The ability of the Coalition under the new Resolute Support Mission to influence or shape events on the ground in what used to be referred to as Regional Command North (RC North) is minimal. Train, Advise, Assist Command - North, under German leadership, has little strength in numbers and very little combat power. Air support is non-existent and comes out of Bagram if at all. The small amount of troops not dedicated to staff, command, advising, or support are providing "force protection" and "guardian angel" services. Confined to Camp Marmal, except when advisors and their force protection detail head to the 209th Corp HQs, the Coalition sees very little on what is happening in northern Afghanistan. TAAC North's intelligence assets are very likely limited and probably blind on the true tactical situation. Relying on the intelligence provided by the 209th Corps, OCC-R, ANP, and ABP is problematic.

The Taliban, IMU, and other insurgent groups have made great inroads into northern Afghanistan and the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) have proven themselves not up to the challenge. There is a very real threat to the Central Asian states to the north. While ISAF may be blind to the situation the Central Asian states are aware of what the future may bring.

Read more in "Central Asia and Afghanistan as the Drawdown Deadline Arrives", Gandhara Blog - Radio Free Europe, December 29, 2014.

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