2014 will be a very important year for the Afghans. In the security arena the Afghan National Security Forces will be on their own. Many of the ISAF combat enablers (fires, MEDEVAC, logistics, intelligence assets, and others) provided to the ANSF during 2012 and 2013 will have been downsized due to the withdrawal of the Coalition combat troops. The economy will suffer a downward trend as foreign aid diminishes and the financial support provided to the Afghan government for its ministries and military is reduced. Confidence in the Afghan economy will suffer and many investors may sit on the sidelines to see what 2015 brings. The lack of a signature for the Bilateral Security Agreement poses additional problems; but hopefully someone can knock some sense into Karzai and he will sign.
However, probably one of the most important events to take place that will affect all the factors mentioned above is the upcoming Afghan elections scheduled for this April 2014. The international community has to on one hand - support the election process and provide some oversight to ensure legitimacy - but on the other hand stay away from the process enough so that it is not seen as meddling.
The Director of the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), Andrew Wilder, has provided five recommendations that the U.S. should follow in regards to the Afghan elections. These recommendations include making the Afghan elections a top priority, an appointment of a U.S. official with ambassadorial rank to oversee focus on the elections, avoid endorsing or supporting any specific candidate, actively support the media and civic education efforts, and work with Afghanistan's regional partners to improve the election environment.
Read more in "Looking Ahead: Why 2014 Will Be A Huge Year for Afghanistan", KGOU (NPR), January 2, 2014.
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