ISAF Now Classifying ANSF Assessments

According to recent news reports the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is now classifying assessments of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). ISAF uses the Regional ANSF Status Report (RASR) to rate the various elements of the Afghan National Security Forces. The RASR is a monthly report that provides an update on the readiness, long-term sustainability, and associated shortfalls of the Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan Local Police (ANP). The RASR executive summary provides a high-level overview of the ANSF corps-level units across several operational effectiveness pillars and up until now has been unclassified. The bulk of the RASR that deals with units at the operational and tactical level was always classified.

The ANSF has some serious capability gaps (intelligence, close air support, logistics, aviation, MEDEVAC, aerial ISR, etc.). ISAF feels that sharing information about those capability gaps and vulnerabilities could harm the operational effort. Of course, the classification of the reports (capability ratings of the ANSF) denies the United States public an accurate picture of what is really going on with the development of the ANSF. There are many ongoing assessments of the ANSF that are available, but the ISAF assessments generally are more revealing and accurate.

Whether the classification of the general high-level overview is truly warranted is hard to determine. It seems that the general shortfalls of the ANSF are well-known so what "classified" information is ISAF really trying to protect? Sometimes the protection of information is truly warranted on an intelligence and operational basis and sometimes it is part of the "information operations" campaign of ISAF. Hard telling not knowing.

Read more in "U.S. Military Classifying Assessments of Afghan Military", Bloomberg Businessweek, October 30, 2014. See also "The Capabilities of the Afghan Military are Suddenly a Secret", Time.com, October 30, 2014.

Paper - Airpower and COIN in Afghanistan

Jason Lyall of Yale University has wrote a paper entitled Bombing to Lose? Airpower and the Dynamics of Violence in Counterinsurgency Wars (August 9, 2014). The use of close air support during an insurgency is vital if used properly. Lyall's paper is posted on the Social Science Research Network at the link below. An abstract of his paper follows:

"Are airstrikes an effective tool against insurgent organizations? Despite the question's historical and contemporary relevance, we have few dedicated studies, and even less consensus, about airpower's effectiveness in counterinsurgency wars. To answer this question, I draw on declassified United States Air Force records of nearly 23,000 airstrikes and non-lethal shows of force in Afghanistan (2006-11), satellite imagery, and a new SQL-enabled form of dynamic matching to estimate the causal effects of airstrikes on insurgent attacks over variable temporal and spatial windows. Evidence consistently indicates that airstrikes markedly increase insurgent attacks relative to non-bombed locations for at least 90 days after a strike. Civilian casualties play little role in explaining post-strike insurgent responses, however. Instead, these attacks appear driven by reputational concerns, as insurgent organizations step up their violence after air operations to maintain their reputations for resolve in the eyes of local populations."

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2422170

Book - "Rule of Law in Afghanistan"

An important new resource is now available for those who are conducting the Security Force Assistance (SFA) mission in Afghanistan. The Rule of Law in Afghanistan is a primer for practitioners. The author, Kristine Ziems of Touchpoint International Development Group, is an attorney and consultant specializing in legal development in emerging democracies. She wrote the primer in conjunction with (funding was provided) the United States Department of State Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs' Office of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The primer is designed to provide a practical introduction to the rule of law development in Afghanistan. The topics covered by the Primer, as outlined below, range from the structure of the Afghan Government and the criminal justice system - including Shari'a law and traditional dispute mechanisms in Afghanistan, to efforts to combat corruption, counter narcotics, and develop the Afghan National Police. The Primer is a valuable tool for practitioners working in Afghanistan as well as policy and decision makers. The Primer outlines current issues, providing a historical context, but also with our international partners. The report is dated February 2014. It is available on at the below link:
https://sites.google.com/site/touchpointidg/training-and-educational-services/afghanistan

Report - GAO Equipment Drawdown

The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) has published a report entitled Progress Made, but Improved Controls in Decision Making Could Reduce Risk of Unnecessary Expenditures, GAO-14-768, September 30, 2014. The report looks at the retrograde or destruction of equipment and vehicles and provides recommendations on how to save some money. A summary of the report is in quotes below. The report is available here - http://gao.gov/products/GAO-14-768.

"The Department of Defense (DOD) has made some progress in its drawdown of equipment from Afghanistan, but ongoing uncertainties about the future force in Afghanistan could affect progress of the drawdown. Specifically, from October 2012 to October 2013, DOD returned from Afghanistan or destroyed 14,664 vehicles, an average of 1,128 vehicles per month. Future progress toward drawdown goals will depend on equipment turn-in rates, which, in turn, depend on having more information about the post-2014 force level and mission. In addition, over the course of the last 8 months of the above period, the number of vehicles turned in by units for the drawdown averaged 55 percent of what had been forecast. This is because some vehicles that had been forecast for turn-in were instead redistributed to other units in Afghanistan. A senior DOD official stated that units have retained equipment because of uncertainty regarding future operational needs in Afghanistan. Once the post-2014 force level and mission are announced, these vehicle turn-in rates may increase."

Report - Losing the "Forgotten War"

Anthony H. Cordesman has penned a report entitled Losing the "Forgotten War": The Need to Reshape US Strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia.  The report, published on October 1, 2014, is available here on the website of the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). (It  is an Adobe Acrobat PDF, 76 pages long, and 3 MBs big). The report says that " . . . Afghanistan is still the forgotten war at a time when the Taliban is making steady gains, civilian casualties are rising, the Afghan economy is in crisis, and there still are no clear plans for any post-2014 aspect of transition". Aspects of the report include the developing strategic vacuum in Afghanistan and Central and South Asia; uncertainty of Afghan leadership, military failure in Afghanistan, rising tide of internal violence, real US strategic interests, and relationships with Pakistan, India, Iran, and China.

Report - Afghan Politics, Elections, and Government (CRS Sep 2014)

The Congressional Research Service (CRS) has published a report entitled Afghanistan: Politics, Elections, and Government Performance, by Kenneth Katzman, RS21922, dated September 17, 2014. Topics include the historic patterns of Afghan authority and politics, post-Taliban transition and political landscape, Afghan governing capacity and performance, and more. In its summary it states ". . . the government remains rife with corruption and ethnic and political tensions among its major factions are ever present."  It further concludes "The United States has helped establish anti-corruption institutions, but these bodies have faltered from lack of support from senior Afghan leaders who oppose prosecuting political allies". You can read the report online or download at this link - http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/232516.pdf.

Report - "Drugs or Hope", AREU (Sep 14)

The Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU) has published a new report on the opium poppy cultivation dynamics in Afghanistan. The AREU conducted field research in Badakhshan, Balkh, Helmand and Nangarhar provinces during three agricultural years from 2010 to 2012. The intent was to explore the dynamics of opium poppy cultivation, the history of government policies and programs, and the ways in which these policies and programs affected the ability of rural households to maintain their livelihoods. The paper is entitled "Despair or Hope: Rural Livelihoods and Opium Poppy Dynamics in Afghanistan", AREU, September 2014. You can view an abstract online here or read online and download here.

Report - Labor Market Afghanistan (AREU Sep 14)

Two writers have published a report entitled "Gender, youth, and urban labour market participation: evidence from the tailoring sector in Kabul, Afghanistan", posted on the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU), dated September 2014. This study is about understanding how labour markets actually work in insecure and dynamic contexts. In the research the study examines the Kabul tailoring labour market and sets out to help us understand what a 'good jobs agenda' might actually look like.

The Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU) is an independent research organization based in Kabul. AREU's mission is to inform and influence policy and practice by conducting high-quality, policy-relevant research and actively disseminating the results, and to promote a culture of research and learning. AREU engages policymakers, civil society, researchers and students to promote the use of AREU's research and its library. An abstract of the report is below:

"The creation of good jobs and decent work in conflict-affected places is widely seen to generate not just better-off households, but also safer societies and more legitimate states. However, so much of the good jobs agenda is dominated by technical approaches more concerned with balancing out supply and demand than with serious analysis of the role of institutions, identity and power in mediating access to opportunities".

State Issues Background Brief on Afghan Elections

The U.S. Department of State has published online a "Background Briefing on Afghanistan" dated September 24, 2014. The briefing (because it is "background") is attributable to a "Senior State Department Official". The briefing was presented to provide an update on what is going on in Afghanistan in regards to the election results and 'unity government agreement" and then it was opened to questions.

In the brief the State participants outlined the role that State played in the resolution of the Afghan election mess, highlights the challenges ahead (security, political, and economic transitions), emphasized that the two presidential candidates will work well together, the current Afghan fiscal crisis, the inauguration date is set, prospects of peace talks with the Taliban, and state that the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement and NATO SOFA is not far away.

Of course, the more interesting aspects of these "off the record" State Department briefings the correspondents ask. Such as "Why were the results of the vote not released?" and does the State Department think these elections " . . .were free and fair and transparent and open . . . ". The pros are good at skirting the truth. You can view the background briefing online here at the State Dept portal:
www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/09/232078.htm

Report - Partner Capacity in COIN Campaigns

RAND Corporation has published a report that provides a quantitative and qualitative analysis on the likelihood of success of small-footprint approaches to counterinsurgency environments. The RAND team did a simple statistical analyses of 72 counterinsurgencies that have terminated since the end of World War II. In addition, it consulted with numerous reports, studies, and experts on counterinsurgency environments. You can read the results in "Partner Capacity in Counterinsurgency Campaigns" published February 2014 available at this link on RANDs website.

Afghanistan: Strong Military but Weak Government - What Should be Done After the Drawdown of Troops

The Council on Foreign Relations Center for Preventive Action has released a Council Special Report entitled "Afghanistan After the Drawdown" (Council Special Report No. 67, November 2013). The report outlines the composition, role, and rationale for the ten thousand U.S. troops that will be stationed in Afghanistan beyond December 2014. The authors recommend a number of steps the United States can and should take to advance its interests during the transition that Afghanistan will undergo through the April elections, transition of all security responsibilities to the Afghan National Security Forces, and the diminishing of foreign aid by international donor nations. Both authors are associated with the RAND Corporation. Seth Jones has a lot of experience with Afghanistan and Keith Crane has worked in the public policy area for years. You can learn more about the publication (view online or download) at this link.

"Robber Barons Rising" - COIN in Ghazni

Stability Journal: The International Journal of Security & Development has published a new report about Ghazni, Afghanistan. The authors, Matthew P. Dearing and Cynthia Braden have wrote "Robber Barons Rising: The Potential for Resource Conflict in Ghazni, Afghanistan" dated February 18, 2014. The publication is available at this link "Robber Barons Rising". An abstract of the report is below in quotes:

"Security and governance in Ghazni Province, Afghanistan are threatened by resource conflict dynamics: groups focus on exploiting lootable resources in the short term while weak institutions and conflict persists. Elements within the Afghan government and insurgent organizations alike expand their power and influence in this manner. Understanding how criminal organizations operate within the regional political economy is essential to reducing the leverage these networks, associated criminal syndicates, and corrupt government officials have on the community. We proffer three hypothesis for development and stability practitioners to monitor as transition approaches in 2014, as well as recommendations for mitigating the onset of resource conflict in Ghazni as the province experiences a downgrade in foreign security forces. Adopting effective, anti-insurgency policies will be fundamental to mitigating the malicious effects on the population and providing incentives for peace, rather than continuing conflict".

Report - Afghanistan: Key Oversight Issues (Feb 13)

The GAO has released a report entitled "Afghanistan: Key Oversight Issues" dated February 2013. The report to Congress provides updates on Afghanistan's security environment, the transition of lead security to Afghan security forces, future cost and sustainability of Afghan security forces, DoD planning for the draw down of equipment in Afghanistan, Afghanistan's donor dependence, oversight of accountability of U.S. funds to support Afghanistan, and more.

Negotiating a Political Settlement in Afghanistan - Report by International Crisis Group (ICG)

The International Crisis Group (ICG) based in Brussels has released a report that is very critical of the current negotiations being held (or not being held) with the Afghan insurgents. The ICG believes that peace talks are extremely important if there is to be "any chance of delivering sustainable peace in Afghanistan". The recent report is entitled "Talking about Talks: Toward a Political Settlement in Afghanistan", Asia Report No 221, 26 Mar 2012.

Read the ICG press release about the report here "Toward a Political Settlement in Afghanistan", ICG, 26 March 2012. The actual report can be read or downloaded here in Adobe Acrobat PDF format - "Talking about Talks: Toward a Political Settlement in Afghanistan". Learn more about the Afghan peace talks and read recent news articles on the Afghan reconciliation process.

Afghan Elections Marred by Corruption and Meddling - Report by AAN

The Afghanistan Analysts Network - a think tank on Afghanistan - has released a report on the elections that took place this past fall.  It cited the country's election governing bodies as being one of the biggest problems in the parliamentary election results.  The 2010 parlimentary vote was mired with controversies.  This report provides data, information, and maps on the election.  The report attempts to draw conclusions based on what electoral information was available for study. 

Read more in "Report: Afghan elections crippled largely by governing bodies", The Stars and Stripes, February 19, 2011.

The report can be viewed on the Afghanistan Analyst Network website at the link below:
http://aan-afghanistan.com/index.asp?id=1505

Two Years Under Obama: Some Measurable Criteria in Afghanistan

The Huffington Post has provided online a simple table that shows how some of the dynamics of the war in Afghanistan has changed in the past two years under President Obama.  Some of the criteria include troop deaths, number of IED attacks, drone strikes in Pakistan, mobile phone use, and more.

"The Huffington Post completed a status update of the war in Afghanistan, including conditions in the impoverished country, comparing January 2009 to January 2011. As indicated, some of the statistics reflect available data from the previous year."

See "Obama's War: How Afghan Conflict Has Ramped Up in Last Two Years", The Huffington Post, February 17, 2011.

Improving Afghan War Strategy - by Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institute - Feb 2011 (Report)

The Brookings Institute has published a report entitled "Improving Afghan War Strategy" authored by Michael E. O'Hanlon.  It is dated February 2011 and the report is a policy brief on Afghanistan.  The report

" . . . addresses the first challenge, improving the U.S./NATO counterinsurgency campaign.  The basic logic of the current strategy is accepted, but several new initiatives or ideas are explored to make it more promising and more effective".

Three main ideas are developed:
- promoting Afghan political organizations around ideas and platforms not ethnic groups or individuals
- tackling the problem of corruption from an international perspective instead of U.S. - Afghan view
- Offer a civilian nuclear deal to Pakistan in exchange for shutting down the Taliban sanctuaries

Read the report at the link below:

http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2011/02_afghanistan_ohanlon.aspx

Report Says Taliban May be Open to Negotiations and Break with al Qaeda

A recent news article states that the Taliban may be willing to break with al Qaeda and conduct negotiations for a peace settlement. Read more in the links below:

"Afghan Taliban would be open to talks: report", Yahoo News, February 7, 2011

"N.Y.U. Report Casts Doubt on Taliban's Ties with Al Qaeda", The New York Times, February 6, 2011

The report, sponsored by New York Univeristy's Center on International Cooperation, can be found on the website of the Human Security Report Project.  See "Separating the Taliban from al-Qaeda: The Core of Success in Afghanistan", February 1, 2011.

Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan (Nov 2010)

"The November 2010 release of the “Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan,” a report to Congress in accordance with section 1230 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 (Public Law 110-181) as amended, was provided today to Congress."

The contents of the report include the current strategy, Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), security situation, governance, reconstruction and development and regional engagement.  The report is an Adobe Acrobat document, is 105 pages long, and is posted at the link below:

http://www.defense.gov/pubs/November_1230_Report_FINAL.pdf

Download DoD Report to Congress - Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan - Nov 2010

The Department of Defense has sent its semi-annual report to Congress on the state of the Afghanistan War.  You can download the report (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 105 pages) at the link below.  The report is entitled "Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan", November 2010.  The report is submitted in accordance with section 1230 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 (Public Law 110-181).  Topics within the report include current strategy, state of the Afghan National Security Forces, security, governance, reconstruction and development, counternarcotics (CN), and regional engagement.

http://www.defense.gov/pubs/November_1230_Report_FINAL.pdf