Showing posts with label commentary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label commentary. Show all posts

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Commentary on Afghanistan



Taliban and Peace Talks? Antonio Giustozzi, a long-time observer of all things Afghanistan, comments on the prospects of the insurgents engaging in peace talks. Many observers think the Taliban are not accepting President Ghani's latest proposals because of the recent success the insurgents have had in the rural areas of Afghanistan. But Giustozzi points to a number of other contributing factors. Read "Do the Taliban Have any Appetite for Reconciliation with Kabul?", Center for Research & Policy Analysis, March 19, 2018.

Pentagon Propaganda. A columnist for Task & Purpose throws the red BS flag out on recent news reports by the Department of Defense about progress being made in Afghanistan. Paul Szoldra says "the flaks in the Pentagon's press office seem to be working overtime to convince you that everything is fine, remain calm in the dumpster fire that is the War in Afghanistan". Read The Pentagon is Really Ramping Up the High Quality Bullsh*t About AfghanistanTask & Purpose, March 23, 2018.

Why Peace Talks are the Way Forward. Vikram J. Singh, a senior advisor for national security and international policy at American Progress, says the U.S. can't continue down the same failed path. His first three paragraphs sum up the current situation in Afghanistan quite adequately; although I am not sure I agree with the conclusion. Read "Why Peace Talks Are Washington's Best Bet in Afghanistan", Foreign Affairs, March 21, 2018.


Sunday, March 18, 2018

Commentary on Afghanistan



Iran's Hand in Western Afghanistan. The western province of Farah is experiencing significant security problems. The province shares a border with Iran. Some Afghan's are blaming Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) for aiding the Taliban insurgents in western Afghanistan. Apparently it is believed that Iran does not want to see certain construction projects succeed and it wants to diminish U.S. influence in western Afghanistan. For instance, the TAPI project is a rival to Iran's own regional pipeline project and would increase the influence of Arab Gulf states. Read "Afghans see Iran's hand in Taliban's latest gains in western Afghanistan", Middle East Institute, March 14, 2018.


Sunday, March 11, 2018

Commentary on Afghanistan




General Nicholson - In Too Deep? Wesley Morgan, a defense journalist, examines the RS Cdr's track record over the past two years and wonders if the commander is 'sugar coating' how well the Afghan security forces are doing. Read "Is the top general in Afghanistan in too deep?", Politico, March 5, 2018. See also (posted in last weeks newsletter) "General John Nicholson - Two Years as RS Commander", SOF News, March 2, 2018.

Catch 22. One writer's perspective on Afghanistan sees the global war on terror which began in 2001 heading nowhere. "Afghanistan's Catch-22", Indian Defence Review, March 2, 2018.
"For Afghanistan, there is nothing different about the year that has just begun except that there is more violence, increasing political fragmentation, a slowing economy, and rising discontent amongst the domestic population".
Protracted Stalemate. Ali Wyne, a policy analyst at RAND Corporation, provides his perspective on the current security situation in Afghanistan. He believes that the ANDSF won't be 'turning the corner' any time soon and the Afghan government will only stay in power so long as the U.S. and its allies remain in Afghanistan. (The RAND Blog, Feb 26, 2018).

More Dialogue Needed. Adam Weinstein writes that "An end to the war in Afghanistan lies in dialogue and if Washington doesn't adapt it will soon get left behind". Weinstein is a veteran of the Afghan conflict, a former Marine, writer on national security issues. See his article in "Dialogue With Taliban the Only Way Out of Afghanistan"The American Conservative, March 5, 2018.


Sunday, March 4, 2018

Commentary on Afghanistan



General Nicholson's Report Card. General John Nicholson has been in command of NATO's Resolute Support Mission for two years - as of March 2, 2018. He is very familiar with Afghanistan -having served as a brigade commander, RC deputy command, and operations officer for ISAF. So how has he done? Read "General John Nicholson - Two Years as RS Commander", SOF News, March 2, 2018.

Anthony Cordesman on Afghanistan. A scholar at the Center for Strategic & International Studies has penned an opinion piece about the lack of an overall U.S. strategy for much of the world in conflict. Along with many other trouble areas of the world he has some thoughts on Afghanistan (in quotes below). Found in "America's Chaos Strategy in the Middle East and South Asia", CSIS, February 26, 2018.
"America has made major improvement to its tactics and force development plans in Afghanistan, but done nothing to deal with civil and political stability. It not only faces a deteriorating security situation, it has no clear political, governance, or economic strategy to produce Afghan stability. It also ignores the fact that the central government seems to be shrinking back to becoming the government of 'Kabulistan'"
"Things Are No Better in Afghanistan". Daniel DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities, says it is not too late for the administration to break the cycle of strategic folly that has categorized America's misadventure in Afghanistan. (Real Clear Defense, Feb 27, 2018).

Afghanistan Options for the U.S. Bing West, a military historian, provides us his thoughts on the future of the U.S. involvement in Afghanistan in "Afghanistan Options: Leave, Increase, Stand Pat, or Cut Back", Strategika, Hoover Institution - Stanford University, February 26, 2018.

Winning the Drug War. M. Ashraf Haidari writes about "How America Can Win the Drug War in Afghanistan", National Interest, March 1, 2018.

Noor on Ghani. Dismissed Balkh governor Atta Mohammad Noor has penned an opinion piece about Ashraf Ghani. He says that President Ghani's authoritarian tendencies have failed the Afghan people. Read "Trump's South Asia Strategy and Afghanistan's Political Stalemate: A Way Forward", The Diplomat, February 27, 2018.


Sunday, February 25, 2018

Commentary on Afghanistan




ANDSF Logistics is Key? Daniel Goure, a national security commentator, says that "An effective logistics enterprise is the key to a successful counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan". I don't entirely disagree with him. Okay, it is extremely important but . . . maybe "leadership" is the key. However, he presents a sound argument for increasing the ability of the ANDSF to maintain its fleet of vehicles. Read "The Key to Success in Afghanistan is Logisitics", Real Clear Defense, February 23, 2018.

The Way to Peace. Barnett R. Rubin of the Center on International Cooperation (and Afghan 'expert') thinks the way to peace in  Afghanistan is through infrastructure investment and connecting to the Chinese and Indian mega-economies. See "Theses on Peacemaking in Afghanistan: A Manifesto", War on the Rocks, February 23, 2018.


Sunday, February 18, 2018

Commentary on Afghanistan



Time Running Out for Afghanistan. Mike Gallagher, a Marine veteran and U.S. Congressman, provides his perspective on the Afghan conflict - "In Afghanistan, Hard is not Hopeless - but Time is Running Out", Real Clear Defense, February 12, 2018.

U.S. Senator Rand Paul's View on Afghanistan. A fiscal conservative, Senator Paul says our time in Afghanistan should come to a close. We are now embarked on a mission of nation-building and it is too costly. Read "Is Senator Rand Paul Right about Afghanistan?", Conservative HQ, February 12, 2018.

Current Afghan Strategy Is the Right One. Gary Anderson, a retired USMC colonel and former civilian advisor in Afghanistan, provides his thoughts on why the current strategy in Afghanistan is the correct one. (The Washington Times, Feb 15, 2018).

A Call to Continue Kinetic and TAA. Alicia Chavy, a columnist associated with the Georgetown Security Studies Review, advocates for a continuation of kinetic strikes against the Taliban and the train, advise, and assist mission to further develop the Afghan security forces. Read "Amid Recent Terrorist Attacks, US and NATO-led Efforts in Afghanistan Must Persist", GSSR, February 16, 2018.

NDS Needs to Improve. Kabul has been the target of some major terrorist attacks by the Taliban and IS-KP in recent months. The uptick in the violence has the city's residents pointing fingers at the Afghan government. Javid Ahmad, a Non-Resident Fellow with the Atlantic Council and West Point's War Institute, presents his views on the failures of the National Directorate of Security (NDS) in "The Major Flaws in Afghanistan's Intelligence War", The National Interest, February 12, 2018.

Afghans Abroad Need to Help Afghanistan. M. Ashraf Haidari, the Director-General of Policy & Strategy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan, believes that Afghans living abroad should try to assist their home country with the challenges it faces. Read "Securing the Future of Afghanistan: The Diaspora's Debt of Service", The Diplomat, February 13, 2018.

Some 'Inconvenient Truths' about America's War in Afghanistan. Danny Sjursen, a fellow at Defense Priorities and combat veteran, expresses his views about the Afghan conflict. "America has done all it can in Afghanistan - more troops won't 'win' us anything", The Hill, February 11, 2018.


Sunday, February 11, 2018

Commentary on Afghanistan



Optimism Among U.S. Military Leaders on Afghanistan. Kevin Baron, the executive editor for Defense One, writes a detailed article on why our military leaders are optimistic about Afghanistan. Read "Meet the Believers: The Afghanistan War's US Commanders are Ready For a Reboot", Defense One, February 5, 2018.

"Afghanistan is Worse Than Ever". Former SECDEF Chuck Hagel says the situation is bleak and that the time will come when the U.S. will have to leave. (Military Times,  Feb 7, 2018).

"Afghanistan Strategy is Messy, But  . . ." Tom Rogan provides his input on the Afghan conflict. "And even if messy, it's the best possible recipe for a more realistic victory - not defeat'". (Washington Examiner, Feb 5, 2018).

What Winning Looks Like. Nicholas Grossman, a professor of political science at the University of Illinois and editor-at-large of Arc Digital, says we need to hold the line in Afghanistan. He has some good points although he seems to think you 100,000 troops in Afghanistan to do counterinsurgency (Ummm . . . ) Read "The U.S. Needs to Rethink What Winning in Afghanistan Looks Like", National Review, February 7, 2018.

Increased OPTEMP = Increased Casualties. The U.S. has stepped up its bombing raids and close air support operations while the ANDSF (supposedly) has increased its operations against the insurgents around the country. Borhan Osman writes that this may just stiffen the Taliban resolve to not engage in negotiations and could result in an increase in civilian casualties. Read The Cost of Escalating Violence in Afghanistan, International Crisis Group, February 7, 2018.

"The Great Game?" - Not in U.S. Interests. Lyle J. Goldstein, a professor of strategy in the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) at the United States Naval War College in Newport, R.I., assesses the nature of the Afghan conflict while analyzing the motivations of Russia and China. "The Absurdity of the New 'Great Game' in Central  Asia", The National Interest, February 6, 2018.


Sunday, February 4, 2018

Commentary on Afghanistan



Peace Talks

Peace Talks? No Progress. Thomas Ruttig and Obaid Ali of the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) provides an update on the lack of progress in government / Taliban peace talks. Read "Words, No Deeds: 2017, another lost year for peace (talks) in Afghanistan", January 24, 2018.

Pakistan

Pakistan - At the Heart of the Problem. Robert Cassidy, PhD and retired U.S. Army colonel, provides insight as to why Pakistan lies at the very center of implementing a 'new Afghanistan strategy' in "Pakistan: Graveyard of Strategy", Modern War Institute at West Point, January 31, 2018.

Pakistan - A Thorn in the Side of the U.S. Mark Mazzetti tells us how Afghanistan's neighbor cultivated American dependency while subverting American policy in "The Devastating Paradox of Pakistan", The Atlantic, March 2018.

Costs Pakistan Will Endure. Michael Kugelman, Asia Program Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia at the Wilson Center, comments on the costs that Pakistan will endure for supporting the Afghan Taliban. "Winter is coming for Pakistan's military as US aid freeze sets in", East Asia Forum, January 31, 2018.

Regional Aspects of Afghan Conflict

Geopolitical Rivalries in the Afghan Conflict. There are many different perspectives of the roots of the Afghan conflict. The Centre for Research on Globalization provides its viewpoint on the 'real reasons' the U.S. stays engaged in Afghanistan. For a little bit of reality mixed in with a good dose of fiction read "Geopolitical Rivalries and Afghanistan's Open-Ended War. China Extends Its Influence to the Detriment of America", by Fraidoon Amel, January 29, 2018.

Regional Neighbors Important to Resolving Afghan War. Washington's attempt to find a resolution to the Afghan conflict militarily while continuously antagonizing Iran and Pakistan is bound to end badly. Read "Afghanistan Cannot Be Resolved in Isolation from Its Neighborhood", by Mohammed Ayob, National Interest, January 30, 2018.

Regional Connectivity Important to Peace. M. Ashraf Haidari writes about how to obtain peace in Afghanistan. Factors include Pakistan and India resolving their differences, the ceasing of support of the Taliban by Afghanistan's neighboring countries, and enhancing the economic connectivity of the region. "Key to Peace in Afghanistan", The Daily Pioneer, February 1, 2018.

Commentary on the Afghan War

Gauging Success or Failure. Dr. Seth Jones, associated with the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) provides an update on the current situation in Afghanistan and looks at the various data points and metrics that could be used to determine who is winning and who is losing in Afghanistan. The State of the Afghan War, CSIS, January 31, 2018.

Book Review of "Unwinnable". Ahmed Rashid reviews Unwinnable  - how the UK military conducted its war in Afghanistan. Read "Theo Farrell's Unwinnable shows Britain never had a chance in Afghanistan", Prospect Magazine, January 24, 2018.

End U.S. Intervention in Afghanistan. Bonnie Kristian, a fellow at Defense Priorities, suggests the time has come to end the U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. "US Afghan intervention is a failure of concept, not execution", Washington Examiner, February 2, 2018.

Still in Afghanistan? Julia MacFarlane, an ABC news reporter, examines the current situation in Afghanistan and asks "Why is the US still in Afghanistan", ABC News, February 2, 2018.

Miscellaneous

Abuse of Afghan Boys. A recent report by a U.S. government agency on the practice of using boys for sex (bacha bazi) by personnel of the Afghan security forces has sparked outrage. Several Afghan government officials have come out strongly against the practice. One of them is the Ambassador to the United States - Hamdullah Mohib. Read his article in "Afghan ambassador: Abuse of boys is illegal", USA Today, January 29, 2018.

Defiance in the Face of Terror. The capital of Kabul has suffered through several terrorist attacks . . . but it will rebound and continue on in its quest to become a vibrant city. Read one person's viewpoint on the recent terror attacks in "If ISIS and the Taliban think they can break the spirit of Afghans, they are fools", by Rabia Nasimi, Newsweek.co.uk, January 20, 2018.

Afghanistan Losing International Support? Rakesh Sood, a fellow at the Observer Research Foundation and long-time Indian diplomat, provides his perspective on the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan amid the probability that international support will diminish. Read "Afghanistan, On A Slow Fuse"ORF, January 25, 2018.

COIN - Can it Work? Afghanistan has suffered through a long run of insurgency. So the NATO, U.S., and Afghan military personnel that are fighting the insurgents could be called  "counterinsurgents". But do they know they are "counterinsurgents" and do they know how to conduct counterinsurgency? If an insurgency runs for 16 years can we conclude that counterinsurgency is a failed concept? Or do we conclude that we haven't executed counterinsurgency properly? Or is it possible that counterinsurgency requires a host of factors to all be present for it to be successful? Daniel Shell explores these questions in this short piece entitled "Is COIN Inherently Fragile? And Even Worse, Is Insurgency Anti-Fragile?", Task & Purpose, January 29, 2018.


Sunday, January 28, 2018

Commentary on Afghanistan


Peace Talks? No Progress. Thomas Ruttig and Obaid Ali of the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) provide an update on the lack of progress in government / Taliban peace talks. Read "Words, No Deeds: 2017, another lost year for peace (talks) in Afghanistan", January 24, 2018.

Peace Talks Likely to Fail. Farooq Yousaf, a writer associated with the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), tells us why peace talks with the Taliban are likely to fail in Complications Surrounding Negotiations With The Taliban / Haqqani Network, Afghan Studies Center, January 26, 2018.

Taliban Far from Being on the Ropes. The Taliban currently controls or contests about 40 to 50& of Afghanistan's nearly 400 districts - the highest amount of territory controlled since the start of the 2001 war. Fatality rates for Afghan security forces are soaring while civilian casualties have reached record highs. Meanwhile the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (IS-KP) located in eastern Afghanistan is still strong despite constant pressure from U.S. drones, U.S. SOF, and Afghan SOF. Michael Kugelman, the deputy director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. provides his perspective in "The Taliban and ISIS are still powerful forces in Afghanistan", The Hill, January 26, 2018.

An Indian Perspective. The Narendra Modi government has been in touch with the Trump administration on Afghanistan. See "Mess in Afghanistan: Taliban's hold rising", The Asian, January 23, 2018.

Improving Connectivity in South and Central Asia. Improving regional connectivity across the 'Heart of Asia' region will help all nations. Coupled with an easing of tensions with Pakistan (and Pakistan doing the right thing) . . . all nations could benefit. M. Ashraf Haidari provides his perspective in "A Peaceful Afghanistan Key to Regional Connectivity in South and Central Asia", The Diplomat, January 26, 2018.

Why are we in Afghanistan? Steve Coll, book author and observer of the Afghan conflict, offers his perspective on the long-running Afghan war in "We Can't Win in Afghanistan Because We Don't Know Why We're There", The New York Times, January 26, 2018.

A Distracted and Factional Taliban? One writer, Matthew Dupee, thinks that the Taliban are ". . . distracted by sustained internal divisions and threats from rival factions . . ." Read his long report - "Afghanistan's Intra-Insurgency Violence" - posted in the January 2018 issue of Sentinel published by the Center for Combating Terrorism at West Point.

"Afghanistan, Continued". Thomas Neely, a U.S. Army veteran, writes about the continuing war in Afghanistan. He worries that we haven't learned from the history of past conflicts. Posted in Small Wars Journal, January 6, 2018.

Engaging China and Pakistan. Ehsan M. Ahari, an adjunct research professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, writes that the U.S. can only solve the Afghan conflict if it engages China and Pakistan.  "US Strategy in Afghanistan Requires Diplomacy and Military Power - Analysis", Eurasia Review, January 24, 2018.


Sunday, December 10, 2017

Commentary on Afghanistan


"The Nation State and Afghanistan". Paolo Cotta Ramusino, a professor at the University of Milan (Italy) presented the contents of this article at the Herat Security Dialogue held in October 2017 in Herat, Afghanistan. Italy, of course, is the lead framework nation for the Train, Advise, and Assist Command - West (TAAC West). Read "The Nation State and Afghanistan", Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies, November 20, 2017.

Afghanistan affects Maritime Security. M. Ashraf Haidari, the director-general of policy and strategy for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan, provides a framework for understanding how a land-locked country like Afghanistan can affect the greater security and stability of the maritime environment in the Indian Ocean region. Read "Afghanistan's Stabilization Can Ensure Maritime Security", The National Interest, November 19, 2017.


Sunday, December 3, 2017

Commentary on Afghanistan


"The Nation State and Afghanistan". Paolo Cotta Ramusino, a professor at the University of Milan (Italy) presented the contents of this article at the Herat Security Dialogue held in October 2017 in Herat, Afghanistan. Italy, of course, is the lead framework nation for the Train, Advise, and Assist Command - West (TAAC West). Read "The Nation State and Afghanistan", Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies, November 20, 2017.

"Turning the Corner". For years U.S. commanders in Afghanistan have used the phrases very similar to 'turning the corner' to describe how things are getting better in Afghanistan. And each year we found out that the corner is still some distance away. Read more in an essay by Paul McLeary entitled "U.S. Has 'Turned the Corner' in Afghanistan, Top General Says", Foreign Policy, November 28, 2017.

"The Great Game" Revisited. Shifting regional alliances, a change in Afghan governmental policy, Iran making up with the Taliban, and other factors have influenced the conflict in Afghanistan. The world and regional powers are still meddling in the affairs of Afghanistan. Read more in "World powers jostle in Afghanistan's new 'Great Game'", BBC News, January 12, 2017. (Old news, but still valid).

A Stalemate? One writer examines the conflict in Afghanistan and predicts that the ANDSF and Taliban will ramp up operations in the years ahead to break the stalemate. The Taliban will attempt to seize urban terrain while the ANDSF will conduct major operations to regain key territory in the countryside. But neither is likely to win. Read "The Battle for Advantage in Afghanistan", STRATFOR Worldview, November 29, 2017.

Pakistan - Key to Resolving the Conflict. Harsha Kakar, of the Observer Research Foundation (India), writes on the importance of Pakistan ceasing support to the Haqqani Network and the Afghan Taliban. "US Afghan Success Lies in Forcing Pakistan to Act Against Terrorists", Eurasia Review, December 2, 2017.

India, Afghanistan, and . . . the Taliban. Does India have a role in the Afghan conflict? To an extent it does . . . but in what form of participation? Can it contribute to an Afghan political reconciliation? Kabir Taneja, an Associate Fellow with the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, provides his thoughts in "India and the Afghan Taliban", The Diplomat, November 30, 2017.

NATO Stuck in Europe? A selection of experts weigh in on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan. Read "Is NATO Stuck in Afghanistan?", Carnegie Europe, November 15, 2017.

Gender Equality for ANDSF - A Wasted Effort. A lot of time, money, and effort has gone into implementing gender equality into the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. However, the targeted numbers have never been attained and the reality on the ground for those females in the security forces is far from perfect. Read more in "The Dangers of Forcing Gender Equality in Afghanistan", The New York Times, November 21, 2017.

Afghanistan affects Maritime Security. M. Ashraf Haidari, the director-general of policy and strategy for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan, provides a framework for understanding how a land-locked country like Afghanistan can affect the greater security and stability of the maritime environment in the Indian Ocean region. Read "Afghanistan's Stabilization Can Ensure Maritime Security", The National Interest, November 19, 2017.


Sunday, November 26, 2017

Commentary on Afghanistan


"The Nation State and Afghanistan". Paolo Cotta Ramusino, a professor at the University of Milan (Italy) presented the contents of this article at the Herat Security Dialogue held in October 2017 in Herat, Afghanistan. Italy, of course, is the lead framework nation for the Train, Advise, and Assist Command - West (TAAC West). Read "The Nation State and Afghanistan", Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies, November 20, 2017.

Gender Equality for ANDSF - A Wasted Effort. A lot of time, money, and effort has gone into implementing gender equality into the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. However, the targeted numbers have never been attained and the reality on the ground for those females in the security forces is far from perfect. Read more in "The Dangers of Forcing Gender Equality in Afghanistan", The New York Times, November 21, 2017.

Afghanistan affects Maritime Security. M. Ashraf Haidari, the director-general of policy and strategy for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan, provides a framework for understanding how a land-locked country like Afghanistan can affect the greater security and stability of the maritime environment in the Indian Ocean region. Read "Afghanistan's Stabilization Can Ensure Maritime Security", The National Interest, November 19, 2017.


Sunday, November 19, 2017

Commentary on Afghanistan


Peacekeeping Interventions and RoL. Peacekeeping practitioners work with complex systems - namely systems that are disorderly, irregular, and unpredictable. A report by USIP suggests that practitioners may be better at managing confusion and uncertainty by adopting a more flexible approach. Read "Systems Thinking for Peacekeeping and Rule of Law: Supporting Complex Reforms in Conflict-Affected Environments", United States Institute for Peace (USIP), October 23, 2017.

Developing an Afghan Policy. Shazar Shafqat provides his perspective on the situation in Afghanistan. Read "Afghanistan policy is puzzle of unfriendly pieces", The Hill, November 17, 2017.

Absence of an Afghan Strategy. Gerald F. Hyman writes "Trump's New Afghanistan Strategy Isn't Really a Strategy", The National Interest, November 17, 2017. Hyman is a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars.

RECCA & Heart of Asia. The Director-General of Policy & Strategy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan, M. Ashraf Haidari, has penned an editorial that informs us about the importance of two Afghan-led regional conferences that aim to provide for greater security and stability in Afghanistan and the greater region. The Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan (RECCA) meets in mid-November and the 7th Ministerial Conference of the Heart of Asia meets in December. Read more in "Afghan-Led RECCA and Heart of Asia Processes Can Bolster Regional Stability and Prosperity", Eurasia Review, November 13, 2017.


Sunday, November 12, 2017

Commentary on Afghanistan


The Afghan Diversion. Jill Aitoro, editor of Defense News, has penned an opinion piece about how Afghanistan caused the U.S. Department of Defense to take its eye off other pressing national security concerns. She believes that we need to re-focus our efforts back on technology and we need to regain our technological edge. Read "Afghanistan sucked the oxygen out of the room - at the worst time", Defense News, November 4, 2017.

Update on Afghanistan. Thomas Ruttig provides a good overall update on the conflict in Afghanistan. Read "Conflict Portrait: Afghanistan", PRIO Blogs, November 1, 2017.

U.S. and Pakistan - Spawned the Current Problems of Afghanistan. "Operation Cyclone" was the name given for the campaign against the Soviets in Afghanistan where the U.S. supported the Afghan Mujahadeen. Later, when the CIA and the US abandoned Afghanistan, the Pakistan ISI picked up the remnants of the Afghan resistance. Read an interesting editorial on this past history and current conflict in "The Warring Lovechildren of Cold War era", Deffan Chronicle, November 11, 2017.
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The Way Forward for Peace Talks. Abdul Rahman Rahmani is an Afghan Army aviation pilot who is currently a student at the Expeditionary Warfare School, Marine Corps University in Quantico, Virginia. He outlines the past attempts by the Afghan government to engage in peace talks with the Taliban and offers some recommendations for future courses of action on this topic. See "A Peace Dilemma: Afghan Peace Talks Require a New Approach", Strategy Bridge, November 7, 2017.


Sunday, November 5, 2017

Commentary on Afghanistan



Gendered Approaches to Peace and Security. Jessica Zimerman writes that there is mounting evidence that gendered approaches to peace and security are more effective than traditional, militarized approaches. See "Lessons from the Women, Peace, and Security Agenda", The Diplomat, November 2, 2017.

Trump and Pakistan. Many have drawn the conclusion that Pakistan is of an immediate concern to the D.C. crowd. The visit by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in Islamabad in late October was tense. Pakistan continues to, in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, that there are no Taliban sanctuaries within its borders. The U.S. isn't buying that line. But the position of the U.S. is not without peril. Touquir Hussain, a former ambassador of Pakistan and Diplomatic Advisor to the Prime Minister, is now an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University. He believes that taking a tougher line on Islamabad without a clear strategy is a losing proposition. Read his article in "The Danger of Trump's Pakistan Approach", The Diplomat, November 4, 2017.


Sunday, October 29, 2017

Commentary on Afghanistan


Failure of SFA. Mara Karlin writes that the concept of training and equipping foreign militaries is not the big ticket item that many senior policy makers believe it to be. Read "Why Military Assistance Programs Disappoint" Foreign Affairs, Nov / Dec 2017.

Thinking about South Asia Strategy. Doug Livermore, a former Special Forces officer, writes up his thoughts on the new strategy of the Trump administration. In regards to Pakistan, Livermore believes that the new South Asia Strategy seeks to change Pakistan's destabilizing actions through punitive means
". . . that do not address the underlying causes that motivate Pakistan's behavior in the first place. By tackling the root causes that drive Pakistan's support for the Taliban and other groups, the US could fundamentally alter the course of the conflict and increase the likelihood of arrival at an acceptable and durable political arrangement."
Apparently, it is all about the Durand line. Read "Rethinking the South Asia Strategy - Addressing the Root Causes of Afghanistan / Pakistan Tensions", Georgetown Security Studies Review, October 23, 2017.

Keeping the Pressure on Pakistan. One commentator, Mohammad Taqi, says the US needs to continue putting pressure on Pakistan. (The Wire, Oct 24, 2017).

Afghanistan Still a Fragile State - Why? An analysis of what went wrong in Afghanistan over the past 16 years and the way forward is provided by Shahmahmood Miakhel. He is a former Deputy Minister for the Ministry of Interior (MoI) and is currently serving as the Country Director of the United States Institute for Peace in Afghanistan. Despite Enormous Support of International Community, Why is Afghanistan Still a Fragile State?, Afghanistan Diplomacy Studies Organization, August 30, 2017.

Analyzing R4S Plan. Earlier in October Secretary of Defense presented to Congress the new strategic plan for Afghanistan known by the acronym R4S - for regionalize, realign, reinforce, reconcile, and sustain. Daniel L. Davis, a retired Army officer with time in Afghanistan, provides his thoughts on how this strategy will fail in "The Afghanistan Illusion", National Interest, October 23, 2017.


Sunday, October 22, 2017

Commentary on Afghanistan


Failure of SFA. Mara Karlin writes that the concept of training and equipping foreign militaries is not the big ticket item that many senior policy makers believe it to be. Read "Why Military Assistance Programs Disappoint" Foreign Affairs, Nov / Dec 2017.

Lessons of Vietnam . . . and Afghanistan. James E. Wright, a historian and former Marine, provides some analysis of lessons from Vietnam that apply to Afghanistan and some that do not. "The Real Lessons of Vietnam - and Afghanistan", Defense One, October 13, 2017.


Sunday, October 15, 2017

Commentary on Afghanistan


Kicking the Taliban Out of Qatar? Some believe that the move by President Trump to have the Taliban 'diplomatic office' closed down would be a mistake. A few 'experts' on Afghanistan have collaborated on an opinion piece that advances the argument that the conflict will end only through a negotiated settlement among the United States, the Afghan government, and the Taliban. Read "Expelling the Taliban From Qatar Would be a Grave Mistake", Foreign Policy, October 6, 2017.

Why Soviets Failed in Afghanistan. A Canadian military officer provides his thoughts in a short article on why the Soviets could not win the counterinsurgency fight in Afghanistan. He contributes the failed COIN campaign to two major factors - the political situation in the Soviet Union and the failure of the Soviets to recognize the objection of Afghans to a communist regime. He believes that the U.S. support to the Afghan resistance was not as great a factor as some believe. Read "Did Reagan Defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan?", Small Wars Journal, October 14,2017.

RS Mission in Afghanistan. A researcher, Rajat Ahlawat of the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), outlines the Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan - providing info on the organizations, missions, and objectives. Read "The Future of US Troops in Afghanistan: Assessing Potential Roles - Analysis", Eurasia Review, October 10, 2017.


Sunday, October 8, 2017

Commentary on Afghanistan


Kicking the Taliban Out of Qatar? Some believe that the move by President Trump to have the Taliban 'diplomatic office' closed down would be a mistake. A few 'experts' on Afghanistan have collaborated on an opinion piece that advances the argument that the conflict will end only through a negotiated settlement among the United States, the Afghan government, and the Taliban. Read "Expelling the Taliban From Qatar Would be a Grave Mistake", Foreign Policy, October 6, 2017.

The Invisible War. Michael Kugelman writes on the likely course of events in Afghanistan in "America's inevitable war is now an invisible one", CNN, October 6, 2017.

"Soft Power Strategy Needed?" Daniel Runde has penned an opinion piece that proposes a combined a combined security surge with economic assistance, better governance, more regional integration, and increased diplomacy. See "The New U.S. Commitment to Afghanistan Needs a Soft Power Strategy", Forbes.com, October 6, 2017.

The War will Grind On. One analyst sees that not much will change over the next few years. Read "Sixteen Years and Counting: The Afghan War Grinds On", Stratfor, October 7, 2017.

Kabul Security Posing Problems for NUG. A close look at the security situation in the city suggests that the present state-of-affairs has the potential to pose bigger problems for the National Unity Government (NUG). The Afghan govt has responded to the uptick in attacks in the capital city with a new security plan ("green zone") but this may end up being counter-productive. Read "Kabul Security: The NUG's Achilles Heel?", Eurasia Review, October 6, 2017.


Sunday, October 1, 2017

Commentary


Trump's Afghanistan Strategy is Problematic. Sahar Khan, a visiting research fellow in the Cato Institute's Defense and Foreign Policy Department, believes that President Trump's new Afghan strategy has three fundamental faults that will worsen the conflict. Read "Three Problems with Trump's Afghanistan Strategy", CATO at Liberty, September 13, 2017.

Civil War or Counterinsurgency? One writer, Kevin Laiveling of The Stimson Center's South Asia program, advances the notion that Afghanistan is not conducting a counterinsurgency; that it is instead engaged in a civil war. An interesting way of looking at the 16-year long conflict that could have an impact on the strategic approach to take by the government of Afghanistan (and its international supporters) on how to resolve the conflict. Read "Afghanistan: A Civil War State of Mind", The Diplomat, September 20, 2017.

Iranian Interests in Afghanistan. Iran has played the U.S. well in Afghanistan. The U.S. support of the Afghan government provides an acceptable level of security along the Iranian - Afghan border. The U.S. has not done much to negate Iranian influence and interaction with the Hazara Shiite minority inside Afghanistan. The western area of Afghanistan - in particular the large city of Herat - sees very little interference in Iranian activities by the U.S., Germans, and Italians. However, Iran is concerned with the amount of Afghan refugees that cross the border and the drug trade poses difficulties as well. In addition, it is worried about the future security situation in Afghanistan - one reason why it is hedging its bets by supporting Taliban groups in western Afghanistan. Read more in an interview of Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in "Afghan Opium Trade Sticks a Thorn in Iran's Side", The Cipher Brief, September 27, 2017.

Water Wars. John Nixon, a former senior leadership analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency provides his thoughts on where the Iranian Afghanistan relationship will turn sour. Iran's water crisis and partial dependency on Afghan rivers flowing across the border is the source of tension between the two nations. Read his column in The Cipher Brief, September 2017.